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Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:31:55 PM   
HansBolter


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Can anyone explain these combat results?

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2715 troops, 222 guns, 155 vehicles, Assault Value = 453

Defending force 49141 troops, 609 guns, 506 vehicles, Assault Value = 1295

Japanese adjusted assault: 20

Allied adjusted defense: 2279

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 113 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
93 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1180 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 55 disabled
Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 17 (2 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (7 destroyed, 19 disabled)


Assaulting units:
56th Engineer Regiment
14th Tank Regiment
56th Recon Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
113th Infantry Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
5th Mortar Battalion
25th Army
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
5/14th Punjab Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
1st Hyderabad Battalion
27th Australian Brigade
2nd Malay Battalion
1st Malay Battalion
SSVF Brigade
1st Mysore Battalion
2nd Gordons Battalion
2nd Loyal Battalion
Singapore Fortress
11th Indian Division
22nd Australian Brigade
1st Manchester Battalion
2/17 Dogra Battalion
3rd SSVF Battalion
9th Indian Division
Malaya Army
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
1st ISF Base Force
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
109th RAF Base Force
3rd ISF Base Force
30 Battery/3 HAA
3rd HK&S Light AA Regiment
223 Group RAF
29 Battery/3 HAA
112th RAF Base Force
110th RAF Base Force
Malayan Air Wing
2nd ISF Base Force
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
III Indian Corps
Singapore Base Force
11 Battery/3 HAA
111th RAF Base Force
224 Group RAF
109th RN Base Force

I asked in another thread how the Japanese can consistently cause greater casualties to their opponents than they incur themselves when mounting poor odds attacks. I was told that the odds actually mean nothing with regard to the combat and are only calculated to determine if the defender retreats.

I was told that becasue the Japanese had higher assault (firepower) values before adjustment for odds their fire was causing greater casualties.

In the example above the raw unadjusted firepower of the attackers is one quarter that of the defenders. So attackers with a firepower of 453 firing on defenders in level 4 entrenchments cause 1180 casualties, including numerous destroyed squads while the defenders with a raw unadjusted firepower of 1295 firing on attackers in the open cause a mere 93 casualties with no destroyed squads. What gives? This example seems to defy the logic of the answers I received. What am I still not understanding about how ground combat resolution works?



< Message edited by HansBolter -- 12/9/2009 8:34:22 PM >
Post #: 1
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:36:07 PM   
oldman45


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One of the things talked about in other threads was how many defenders were disabled prior to the combat does have an impact on casualties.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:36:09 PM   
Joglinks1

 

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I say only FOW. I never give anything about the losses displayed. My own losses are accurate but the enemies are usually exaggerated.

J

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:40:00 PM   
HansBolter


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This is the very first round of combat to occur there.

The Allied troops retreated into Singapore early in very good order and have spent weeks resting up awaiting the arrival of the Japanese.

The Japanese, on the other hand, have spent the last few weeks fatiguing themselves marching the entire length of the Malay peninsula.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:56:33 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Japanese look to have a decisive edge in arty

Most of the allied guns are AA and AAMG's not proper arty - I dont know exactly how many they have depending on what state you got them back but the japanese have a full 2 Regiments of medium Artillery AND a Regt of 320mm morters thats a mix of 40 heavy guns and 16 super heavy morters not to mention a lot of other arty in support.

Basically all 200 of the Japanese Tubes are pukka artillery looking at your force you might have 1 Regt of 3.7" Jungle Arty and what maybe two composite regiments of 18 or 25 pounders between the arty regts most of your arty are AA guns, AAMMG's or light A/T Guns.


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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 8:59:53 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Also the Japanese have about 50 tanks between that lot you have what a few Armoured Cars and Vickers MkVI's ??

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:00:25 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

This is the very first round of combat to occur there.

The Allied troops retreated into Singapore early in very good order and have spent weeks resting up awaiting the arrival of the Japanese.

The Japanese, on the other hand, have spent the last few weeks fatiguing themselves marching the entire length of the Malay peninsula.



I'd actually like to see these results explained myself. With "adjusted odds" of 1:113, it's hard to figure how the Japanese could possibly have such massive "fire superiority" over the entrenched defenders during the casualty phase.

Did you send a before and after save to the AE team?

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 7
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:12:05 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Japanese look to have a decisive edge in arty

Most of the allied guns are AA and AAMG's not proper arty - I dont know exactly how many they have depending on what state you got them back but the japanese have a full 2 Regiments of medium Artillery AND a Regt of 320mm morters thats a mix of 40 heavy guns and 16 super heavy morters not to mention a lot of other arty in support.

Basically all 200 of the Japanese Tubes are pukka artillery looking at your force you might have 1 Regt of 3.7" Jungle Arty and what maybe two composite regiments of 18 or 25 pounders between the arty regts most of your arty are AA guns, AAMMG's or light A/T Guns.





Overlooking the fact that the defenders are in level 4 entrenchments I can at least conditionally accept that explanation for teh level of Allied casualties.

What, then, can be the rationale for the pitiful Japanes casualties incured while while assaulting accross a water barrier in the face of 1275 firepower? The low experience level and/or low morale level of the defenders?

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 8
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:12:52 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Also the Japanese have about 50 tanks between that lot you have what a few Armoured Cars and Vickers MkVI's ??



Amphibious tanks or merely snorkels.....they are attacking accross a water barrier.

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Post #: 9
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:14:23 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

This is the very first round of combat to occur there.

The Allied troops retreated into Singapore early in very good order and have spent weeks resting up awaiting the arrival of the Japanese.

The Japanese, on the other hand, have spent the last few weeks fatiguing themselves marching the entire length of the Malay peninsula.



I'd actually like to see these results explained myself. With "adjusted odds" of 1:113, it's hard to figure how the Japanese could possibly have such massive "fire superiority" over the entrenched defenders during the casualty phase.

Did you send a before and after save to the AE team?



No save sent. I save over previous saves using the same save slot to simplfy WITP Tracker use so I never have previous saves. Not too sure the devs want to look at this as they seem to feel everything is WAD.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:19:01 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Out of the long list of units you have I am guessing the list below are the only really combat effective groups and even in those the experience levels will be low


5/14th Punjab Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
27th Australian Brigade
22nd Australian Brigade (between them what about 15 x 25 pounders and a couple of 3.7's ??)
2nd Gordons Battalion
2nd Loyal Battalion
11th Indian Division (about 24 x 18 pounders ?)
1st Manchester Battalion
2/17 Dogra Battalion
9th Indian Division (about 18 x 18 pounders ?)
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment (16 x 3.7")
III Indian Corps

Thats about 15 decent arty guns and about 40 obsolete 18 pounders (albeit not a bad gun in its day) and some light mountain guns


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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:26:14 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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In game it depends on the leader and xp of the units in question and some of those units have real stinkers and will have been heavily suppressed during the fire phase

Given the level of arty support the Japanese have I would expect a lot of allied units to be disrupted and a lot of the weaker units will fail co ordination, leadership or xp roles especially if their morale takes a pounding

If I was trying to rationalise it I would say the japanese hit a weak part of the line held by a couple of suppressed rubber planter Bns or low experience ISF Bn's

But were stopped short of the main line by better troops.

That Arty barrage is brutal and the allies just cannot respond those medium regiments and heavy morters are nasty - they have the same range as the Brit 25 pounders that are covering the whole front and a lot more footprint of effect.

A lot of the Indian (and ISF/Malay) troops are low expernience

You put a low exp, low morale ??, badly led unit into a fight where before they fire a shot they are pounded by big guns and (possibly) air support ?? and they won't achieve much in the various fire phases.



quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Japanese look to have a decisive edge in arty

Most of the allied guns are AA and AAMG's not proper arty - I dont know exactly how many they have depending on what state you got them back but the japanese have a full 2 Regiments of medium Artillery AND a Regt of 320mm morters thats a mix of 40 heavy guns and 16 super heavy morters not to mention a lot of other arty in support.

Basically all 200 of the Japanese Tubes are pukka artillery looking at your force you might have 1 Regt of 3.7" Jungle Arty and what maybe two composite regiments of 18 or 25 pounders between the arty regts most of your arty are AA guns, AAMMG's or light A/T Guns.





Overlooking the fact that the defenders are in level 4 entrenchments I can at least conditionally accept that explanation for teh level of Allied casualties.

What, then, can be the rationale for the pitiful Japanes casualties incured while while assaulting accross a water barrier in the face of 1275 firepower? The low experience level and/or low morale level of the defenders?


(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 12
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:27:21 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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Your lvl 4 enthrenchments stopped them from over running your defences.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:29:53 PM   
HansBolter


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Andy,

Thanks for the insightful answers.

I did replace many of the stinkers, apparently to little effect though.

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Post #: 14
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:31:32 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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p.s. having rationalised all that if you send me a beofre and after I will look at it.

The Japanese adjusted AV looks pretty low - maybe the Arty used all the supply available not sure but that looks like a low number of infantry to be attacking should have been about 20,000.

The lopw japanese AV implies a lot of failed rolls and high disruption basically it looks like all the japanese casualties were in their assault infantry sections which looks wrong but would need to check

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:35:56 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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The main ones you need to replace are your Divisional Leaders ultimately this is a Div scale game - smaller units just get eaten up.

You must get the leaders of your big units up and make sure you have enough morale xp to keep them there.

Having said that IF your opponent can keep them supplied those big guns are nasty and hard to stop.

Basically he has 200 good tubes of which about 60 are really nasty

You have about 60 of which c 15 are modern and good as a 25 pounder is it just doesnt have the killing power of those big 150mm guns or 320mm morters

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:42:26 PM   
pompack


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

This is the very first round of combat to occur there.

The Allied troops retreated into Singapore early in very good order and have spent weeks resting up awaiting the arrival of the Japanese.

The Japanese, on the other hand, have spent the last few weeks fatiguing themselves marching the entire length of the Malay peninsula.



I'd actually like to see these results explained myself. With "adjusted odds" of 1:113, it's hard to figure how the Japanese could possibly have such massive "fire superiority" over the entrenched defenders during the casualty phase.

Did you send a before and after save to the AE team?



No save sent. I save over previous saves using the same save slot to simplfy WITP Tracker use so I never have previous saves. Not too sure the devs want to look at this as they seem to feel everything is WAD.





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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 9:45:57 PM   
Nomad

 

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To me it looks like the Japanese only used one or two units to deliberate attack and had all of the artillery bombard. This was a tactic used in WitP to attack with the Engineers and bombard with all others to try and reduce the fortification level and at the same time disrupt and/or destroy squads.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 10:09:20 PM   
Andy Mac

 

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You could be right nomad it depends if this was a strait crossign or an attack in a later day I guess

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 10:12:08 PM   
carnifex


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quote:

Can anyone explain these combat results?



quote:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)


It looks like the Japanese bombarded a section of the line and then pushed a bunch of tanks through which proceeded to shoot the crap out of:

quote:

Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 36 disabled


Seems like a pretty good explanation to me

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 10:22:32 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

p.s. having rationalised all that if you send me a beofre and after I will look at it.

The Japanese adjusted AV looks pretty low - maybe the Arty used all the supply available not sure but that looks like a low number of infantry to be attacking should have been about 20,000.

The lopw japanese AV implies a lot of failed rolls and high disruption basically it looks like all the japanese casualties were in their assault infantry sections which looks wrong but would need to check



As I mentioned above I don't have a before save.

At the risk of being ridiculed for my persistence (never has stopped me before ), I'll continue to play the devil's advocate by pointing out that all of the explanations for the results lead me to the conclusion that the assault values reported to the player are somewhat misleading and not very indicitive of the outcome. What then is the real value in reporting them to the player?

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 10:23:31 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: carnifex

quote:

Can anyone explain these combat results?



quote:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)


It looks like the Japanese bombarded a section of the line and then pushed a bunch of tanks through which proceeded to shoot the crap out of:

quote:

Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 36 disabled


Seems like a pretty good explanation to me



Yea, that's the ticket..............those amphibious snorkel tanks

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 11:05:18 PM   
Marty A

 

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No japan infantry squads were hit only tanks. it clear to me that japan deliberate attack with tank unit and bombard with some or the rest. i would guess that japan only had 30 or 31 tank not disrupted in tank unit before attack. this was not cross river attack that would have been shock.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 11:08:53 PM   
Kwik E Mart


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

At the risk of being ridiculed for my persistence (never has stopped me before ), I'll continue to play the devil's advocate by pointing out that all of the explanations for the results lead me to the conclusion that the assault values reported to the player are somewhat misleading and not very indicitive of the outcome. What then is the real value in reporting them to the player?


i agree that it is extremely frustrating and counter intuitive to see those results after seeing the initial "odds"...it seems you must be a sherlock holmes to really devine what is going on in a battle. maybe some people find these results more intuitive and don't mind the extra work to understanding a battle result *shrug*

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/9/2009 11:37:52 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
I was told that becasue the Japanese had higher assault (firepower) values before adjustment for odds their fire was causing greater casualties.


Assault and Firepower are _not_ the same. Firepower comes from the individual weapons. Assault is an abstract value of the unit's combat "weight".

Hard to say anything based on just the text report. So much of this comes down to the details.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/10/2009 12:13:07 AM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
I was told that becasue the Japanese had higher assault (firepower) values before adjustment for odds their fire was causing greater casualties.


Assault and Firepower are _not_ the same. Firepower comes from the individual weapons. Assault is an abstract value of the unit's combat "weight".

Hard to say anything based on just the text report. So much of this comes down to the details.



Ok Erik, I can appreciate the distinction.

However, my question of the value of reporting the assault values to the player, when apparently it's the firepower values that are having the biggest impact on combat results still appears valid.

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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/10/2009 12:26:02 AM   
Andy Mac

 

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Oh I would be quite happy not to however all the testers wanted more detail which led to these kinds of questions

Combat is AE is complicated as it was in WITP (its basically the same algorithims)

Andy

(in reply to HansBolter)
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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/10/2009 12:37:48 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
No save sent. I save over previous saves using the same save slot to simplfy WITP Tracker use so I never have previous saves.



Then why bother to complain at all? If you can't provide support and examples for the problems you claim to have found, you are just wasting everybody's time!

Christ, Hans..., you've been on these forums long enough to have learned that.

(in reply to HansBolter)
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RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/10/2009 12:43:11 AM   
Andy Mac

 

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Not a complaint Mike just askign for an explanation which I provided if not as coherently as some would like.

In all honesty when you read the text file and see the comparative amount of actual arty as opposed to the reported arty it is confusisng (I dont like having AAMG's and AT guns and AA guns reported as GUNS it just confuises everyone)

I know the OOB so I can straight away see that rather than having a 3:1 advantage in guns as per the text file actually you are a 4:1 ish underdog in arty in useable tubes and a lot more than that in 'throwweight'

But its hard to see that from the display - I wonder if we can differentiate that on the text file - let me take that one away mibee aye/mibee naw but I will ask someone to take a look.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 29
RE: Can anyone explain these combat results? - 12/10/2009 1:57:28 AM   
HansBolter


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Mike, I've been trying hard not to complain, but rather to ask for explanations for what does not appear easily explanable to the lesser informed (me). Please blame Tracker for my lack of prior turn saves.

I used to use every last save slot for a single game, saving each day till I hit the limit of available save slots before saving over. Tracker's desire to look at a single save slot without having to have it's properties file edited every turn is what led me to start saving over previous turns in the same slot.

I'm not complaining even if my poking fun at some contentions comes across as complaining. From Andy's explanations the combat model would seem to be giving valid results for the forces involved. As Andy seems to agree, it's the way it's reported to the player that seems to drag it into the realm of inexplicability from the player's perspective.

Not only have I been active on these boards long enough to deserve to be taken to task for failing to provide proper documentation, I have also been wargaming long enough (36 years) that when I see reported assault values in my favor by a factor of 3, when the reported combat odds are at a level that would result in an AE (Attacker Eliminated) in most any other wargame combat model and the results are 1100 casulaties to me and less than 100 to my opponent, you can bet yer sweet tookus I'm going to at least question it.

(in reply to Andy Mac)
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