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RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack

 
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RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/10/2008 9:59:52 PM   
sullafelix

 

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From the stand point of we knew for sure before PH is total bunk. The other point is in 1940 if you cut off a nation from oil, meaning that once their reserves run out they will be defenseless. It would only be a matter of time before they are going to get oil from somewhere somehow. This has been slightly discussed before but IMHO it was foolish to think that Japan would just back down and leave China and Indochina. So in my view the moment we started the oil embargo we should have acted as if war was imminent or a definite. General MacArthur's total negligence in getting caught 24 hours after PH was almost criminal in it's nature. What he would have been able to do once the Japanese landed was in reality probably not much more than he did. The getting caught with his pants around his ankles when Congress is getting ready to declare war was a different story.I'm also not a fan because of fighting to deny Wainwright the CMOH because he surrendered. Given the fleet and armies state even without PH would have almost certainly meant the loss of the Phillipines.

(in reply to Prince of Eckmühl)
Post #: 31
RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/11/2008 5:50:21 AM   
Mike Dubost

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sulla05

From the stand point of we knew for sure before PH is total bunk. The other point is in 1940 if you cut off a nation from oil, meaning that once their reserves run out they will be defenseless. It would only be a matter of time before they are going to get oil from somewhere somehow. This has been slightly discussed before but IMHO it was foolish to think that Japan would just back down and leave China and Indochina. So in my view the moment we started the oil embargo we should have acted as if war was imminent or a definite. General MacArthur's total negligence in getting caught 24 hours after PH was almost criminal in it's nature. What he would have been able to do once the Japanese landed was in reality probably not much more than he did. The getting caught with his pants around his ankles when Congress is getting ready to declare war was a different story.I'm also not a fan because of fighting to deny Wainwright the CMOH because he surrendered. Given the fleet and armies state even without PH would have almost certainly meant the loss of the Phillipines.



I would like to add some supporting evidence to the contention that the US government was aware of the risk of war but chose to accept it as the lesser of two evils.

By coincidence, I have just begun re-reading History of United States Naval Operations in WWII, Volume III; The Rising Sun in the Pacific. Samuel Eliot Morison indicates that one of the main reasons for heasitation in starting the embargo was precisely the thought that Japan would go after the Dutch East Indies. On Page 36, the book states " Mr. Grew warned his government in 1938 that if Japan were deprived of oil she would move south and take what she wanted in Burma and Sumatra. Consequently, neither an oil embargo nor any other economic sanction should be imposed until and unless the United States was 'prepared to see them through to their logical conclusion, and that might mean war'." Note that Mr. Grew was the US Ambassador to Japan, and thus in a position to speak with some authority.

I think the hope was that the remnants of the moderates would try to regain control of the Japanese military. Given that in 1922, the Diet voted to cut off funds for Japanese intervention in the Russian Civil War (used as an excuse to effectively take over part of Siberia), this hope was less ridiculous at the time than it now appears in hindsight. Even then, it was optimistic, but maybe not insane.

(in reply to sullafelix)
Post #: 32
RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/11/2008 9:56:21 AM   
Raverdave


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Funny this thread should come up now as i have just been reading Toland's "Infamy".  I have no doubt in my mind that the administration knew what was coming, but I would suggest that they had no idea just how deadly the attack was going to be.   

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Post #: 33
RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/11/2008 4:19:32 PM   
Prince of Eckmühl


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Raverdave
I would suggest that they had no idea just how deadly the attack was going to be.   


They likely wouldn't have had any appreciation for how badly things were going to go in the rest of the theater, either.

PoE (aka ivanmoe)


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(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 34
RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/12/2008 5:01:24 AM   
Crimguy


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This is the book that all the conspiracy theorists look to:

http://www.amazon.com/Day-Deceit-Truth-About-Harbor/dp/0743201299

I think it's conclusions are faulty in many respects.  However, given the aggression of the Japanese throughout the 30's, plus the hardline stance of the United States, I figure there were many who expected them to attack at some point. 

I just doubt anyone expected the Japanese to have the ability, much less the capability, to destroy the PacFleet at Pearl.  The carrier was not yet considered the main instrument of attack at the time, and despite Dolittle's demonstrations of carrier-based attacks on capital ships, most of the Navy at the time was Big Iron.  Brought up on Dreadnaughts.  Inexperienced at aviation.


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(in reply to Prince of Eckmühl)
Post #: 35
RE: Report Debunks U.S. Heard Coded Warning re PH Attack - 12/12/2008 1:27:29 PM   
Yogi the Great


Posts: 1987
Joined: 4/10/2007
From: Wisconsin
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Raverdave

Funny this thread should come up now as i have just been reading Toland's "Infamy".  I have no doubt in my mind that the administration knew what was coming, but I would suggest that they had no idea just how deadly the attack was going to be.   


BINGO

This is the most likely scenario. Knowing an attack would come, perhaps wanting it to come in some way, but not knowing how bad or perhaps even where, with Pearl being low on the expected target list. It seems pretty hard to believe that the president would allow such devastation, but allowing war to happen is plausible. Not all conspiracies have to be the ridicules moon-bat type like some of the 911 conspiracy believers garbage.

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Hooked Since AH Gettysburg

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 36
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