Grognot
Posts: 409
Joined: 12/7/2007 Status: offline

quote:
ORIGINAL: Grapeshot Bob How long, roughly, does it take to starve out a unit in a fort? A turn or two? A year? To take one of the worst cases in the game, a fullygarrisoned Constantinople  Constantinople has five spires, for a capacity of 25 factors and a besiegedsupply value of 5. It's a port, so it needs to be blockaded to eliminate the possibility of sea supply if there's another Turkish port with a depot in a supply chain or that's itself a supply source, and a fleet in one of the two. As long as there are 10 or more factors remaining, the roll is at +2  so a roll of 4, 5, or 6 will eliminate 1, 2, or 3 factors. The other half the die, the garrison doesn't lose anybody. Once they're down to 9 factors, the roll is only at +1, so there are no starvation losses on 14, 1 factor on 5, and 2 on 6. I just ran a quickie Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 trials assuming a full garrison. The minimum observed starvation time was 16 months; the maximum, 132 months. The median, mean and mode were all quite close  46 months, 48 months and 48 months, respectively. This ignores breaches, of course  and even an unsuccessful storming battle where the attacker breaks will help attrit the defenders, provided the besieging force is substantial.
