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RE: 'stuffing' the border

 
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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 7/24/2007 5:54:02 AM   
Zorachus99


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99


quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp
Not all that simple neither. Now notional only have -1 if they cannot trace an infinite supply line. So basicaly what is needed is for the notional to be isolated, being out of supply is not enough anymore.


EH?

What's this? Did I miss some updated rule? OH MY GOD!!! AUUGGHHH!!!! NOOOOOOOOO.......

If you are losing your current WIF FE game-in-progress, this is an excellent reason for why you have to "start over". If you are ahead, don't mention it, and hope your opponent doesn't notice the error in how you have been playing the game.


Haven't used the rule incorrectly for a while actually *groan*. Most of the time I use this rule for islands, which cannot usually trace a basic supply path. Regardless... that does help a touch for your atlantic wall.

Gah, 3+ years and failed to read a sentance correctly. Of course we don't review the rules often.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 61
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/9/2007 4:53:29 PM   
hakon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I believe Jeff's point here was that if the chits are perfectly equal, then the calculation for stuffing the border might show it as a 'certainty'. While in reality, the variation in the chit values might give the Germans a (totally hypothetical number here) 40% chance of declaring war. Even if it were only 25%, that is a very high risk for the USSR to take given the consequences of the stuff failing.


You are at the core of the problem, here. For Russia, it's really about weighing the probability of success times the effect of success against the probability of failure against the effect of failure.

Since Russia can make the choice between a stuff or pulling back as late as the build phase of S/O 1940, without any extra cost, my thesis is that they should always start out with a strategy that is compatible with maximum stuff garison. The strategy for Russia goes like this:

THE STRATEGY

1. Until S/O 1940, behave like you are going to stuff the border. Set up yuor units somewhere where it is relaively easy to pull them back quickly. Focus on garr, arm and mech in the beginning, since the garr do well in the north, while mech and armor are easy to pull quickly back if given a couple of turns to do so. Also put pilots in all your startup planes, for the same reason. I prefer to claim bessarabia, for the extra production. (If germany is really going for a barb, he is probably willing to dow Yugoslavia, regardless.)

In this period, you can still manouvre a bit, preassuring Japan (only in 39, early 40), grab Persia, or maximize garrison vs Germany to threaten to break the garrison vs him in 1940, depending on what opportunities arises. Should something major occur, like a big war with Japan, or if you break garrison vs Germany, the rest of this strategy is not valid. (You can afford a limited war with Japan, though, since it gives you plenty of extra garrison units in the form of reserves and militia, to replace the ones you may loose vs Japan.

2. In S/O 1940, you have to evaluate the situation. Germany may have taken big losses in Poland/France/Yugoslavia, he may be sending large forces to fight Spain or Egypt, prepare for a sealion, or he may be putting large assets into a battle for the Atlantic. Or you may have pulled good garrison chits (15+ total is usually plenty). If any of these conditions occur, you go through.

If Germany, too has maximized his garrison forces, you have to evaluate your chits, his losses, etc. (His losses dont really mean that much, since all cheap units will be built anyway.) Basically, you can use the following as a rule of thumb (taken from memory):

Your total chit value Probability of holding
15+ Very High
12-14 Good
9-11 Fair
8- Bad

How high your chit value must be, for you to try to keep garrison, is a judgement call, but 15+ should at least be enough. Down to 12 is reasonably safe, but may requite a dow on Japan or Italy if you pull bad chits after this time. (Either to get extra units for garrison duty, or to take land actions and run for it.)

ANALYSIS

While it is a little bit dependant on options, lend lease, willingness do perform extreme manuvres (Italian dow on Hungary or mass lend lease to Germany, Russian dow on Japan for the extra militia, or allies racing for lend lease to Russia asap), the USSR should be able to stop more than half of Germany's dedicated 1941-barbarossa-attempts cold, while still pulling back from the borde in good time in almost all of the remaining games. A very few games will become close, if the USSR pulls low chits in the last few turns (or if Germany pulls exceptionally high), but even many of the close ones should be salvagable for the USSR by dow-ing italy/Japan and pulling back in a hurry in mar/apr 1941 or something.

Also, keep in mind that in order to maximize garrison, Ge/It as a team will be rather limited in strategic options if they want to maximize their chances at breaking the pact in 1941. This probably means no naval builds, no action in Africa, little Italian air force (which is so extremely efficient in Russia), Probably no Manstein, and definitely not the 1943 eng that I like to build prior to barbarossa. Furthermore, builds like para, mar and air transport will be limited. Also, Germany will probably go for a Vichy solution that makes it difficult for hime to change his mind, and then switch to a Spain/Gibraltar strategy in 1941 on short notice.

So, basically, the russian THREAT of stuffing produces 4 benefitial effects for the USSR and the allies:
1. It reduces the chance of barb-41 happening.
2. If Germany does get to perform a barbarossa, they build is still sub-optimal. (In particular the italian air force is very important.)
3. If Germany tries to break the pact, but fails, they are likely to achieve far less in 1941 in the med than if going for a med strategy from the beginning. They may even be unable to take gibraltar.
4. The UK has no preassure on herself AT ALL untill Gemany discoveres that they can not break the pact, since Germany is not likely to build a single sub, and definitely no the Condors. This means that the westen allies can go for a very early lend-lease-to-russia option or a simmilarily early oil embargo. The UK should also try to harass the italian fleet as much as possible, in the event that Gemany is not able to break the pact, thereby making it more likely that they may control both Westen Med and the Gulf of St. Vincent in 1941.

All this comes virtually for free, for the USSR. Maybe the only significant restriction is that it means that the USSR can not conduct heavy attacks on Japan in the early game, which of course is very dangerous if it is combined with a full 1941 barbarossa. If the USSR gives up the stuff during the build phase of 1941, they can still have the anti tank, anti air, arm div, mech div, ftr that they need, and even a lnd-4 if they want ready by may/june 1941. And if the allies go for LL to the USSR as early as possible, that option can come as early as the summer of 1940, potentially giving the USSR as much as 20 bp worth of build point and resouce LL. Even if not enough to hold the pact, this makes it much more likely that the USSR will suvive the first two years relatively intact.

CONCLUSION

This is a pretty large opportunity loss for Germany.

So what can Germany do about this? It is rather simple, really. Instead of pressing for a 1941 barbarossa, they should just forget about this, and perform a 1941 med and/or sealion strategy, with barbarossa possibly occuing in 1942, if ever. This effectively removes benefits 2,3 and 4 above.

My thesis is that given optimal grand strategy by all parties, the current rules for stuffing effectively removes the 1941 barbarossa as a strategy in the game, and turns the game into an altenative-history-game built for exploring what Hitler could do if he didnt attack Stalin in 1941.

---------------------------

Btw, I am the "geek" that wrote the Monte Carlo simmulation that calculated the more or less exact probabiliy of holding the pact, given a specific unit-only garrison-advantage as well as their total garrison chit value in sept/oct 1940, complee with US entry taken into account and everything. (It was based on the US entry Monte Carlo program written by Sorensen, I believe). Anyway, I dont have the code available here, but can send it to anybody interested on monday.

< Message edited by hakon -- 8/9/2007 5:04:13 PM >

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 62
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/9/2007 8:50:09 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Hakon,

Terrific analysis. I'll use it for the AIO for several major powers.

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(in reply to hakon)
Post #: 63
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/9/2007 11:46:59 PM   
sajbalk


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Thanks for the analysis. A few questions:

1. When are you looking at the chit values to determine your relative chances? After 6 chits (during S/O '40) or after 7 chits (build phase of S/O '40)?

2. Giving up the stuff strategy must be done not later than S/O '40 to build the anti-air, anti-tank, etc.?

Off to WiFCon tomorrow.



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(in reply to hakon)
Post #: 64
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/10/2007 2:17:37 AM   
coregames


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

2. Giving up the stuff strategy must be done not later than S/O '40 to build the anti-air, anti-tank, etc.?


If Germany is targeting a '41 Barbarossa, even with some activity in North Africa, and you stuff the garrison, the risk is that they will DoW you as you pull back over the fall/winter turns, when weather permits. Sure, they won't get that far over the winter, but you can only take combined actions till then, so they can cut off a lot of out-of-position Russians and kill them. I can see it if your plan is never to pull back to the river lines at all, and just take your medicine in campaign season '42. If you can make sure you're at war with Japan, a pull-back over the winter would be much more doable, with land actions.

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Post #: 65
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/10/2007 11:43:15 AM   
dale1066


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I agree very interesting stuff looks like '41 barabarossa is a dead duck.

Just one question what sort of an effect does japan putting pressure on the ussr in the far east have? say threatening to take vladivostock and the available resources in siberia in summer '40. Can Vlad be made too tough to crack ? or do you give it up? will any lost resources, extra garrisons have an impact?

I guess the point I'm trying to make is can the second parner in the axis, Japan have a strategy to counter this rather good russian one?


(in reply to coregames)
Post #: 66
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/10/2007 3:05:05 PM   
hakon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: coregames

quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

2. Giving up the stuff strategy must be done not later than S/O '40 to build the anti-air, anti-tank, etc.?


If Germany is targeting a '41 Barbarossa, even with some activity in North Africa, and you stuff the garrison, the risk is that they will DoW you as you pull back over the fall/winter turns, when weather permits. Sure, they won't get that far over the winter, but you can only take combined actions till then, so they can cut off a lot of out-of-position Russians and kill them. I can see it if your plan is never to pull back to the river lines at all, and just take your medicine in campaign season '42. If you can make sure you're at war with Japan, a pull-back over the winter would be much more doable, with land actions.


True. A dow on Japan or Italy makes this a lot safer. In 41/42 you will also have so many forces that pulling back on combinedes takes almost forever. Depending on the situation on the US entry pools, I would often prefer a dow when I start to pull back. If Ge/It waits until m/j to attack, you should also try to avoid an italian surprise impulse by dow-ing her first, unless the US hasnt yet taken option 34. (Or in any case if Italy has a lot of bombers)

This is really something that has to be considered on a game to game basis, as the amount of axis bombers tend to vary a bit from game to game. I would expect most axes that was stopped from dow-ing in 41 try to do something else in 41 (like taking gibraltar), which could mean that most of their best forces are off on another front anyway until at least m/a 42. In that case, you're not in such a hurry.



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Post #: 67
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/10/2007 3:21:14 PM   
hakon

 

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Japan can take vladivostok at will, no matter what you put there, because of her shore bombardment. If you really put all the best russian forces in the east, this may cost a lot for Japan in China, though.

More important than Vladivostok is the 4 russian resources in the area.

As the USSR, if Japan attacks while Germany still looks like he is aiming for a 41 barbarossa, I would not defend the pacific map at all (except the vlad mil, which tends to pop up in vladivostok). Instead I would try to fortify the mountains south east of chita, and try to keep 1 resource, and maybe also the area around the second resource. With fairly large forces in this area, I threaten to invade Manchuria, so Japan must commit significant forces against me if attacking, which is very good for China.

If she does this, I will slowly pull back, with the goal of leaving only about 2-6 units in the Chita area (depending on Japanese forces there), or even pull back further. (In m/j there will only be 2) The siberians are good in this area, since they may move in the mountain without flipping. Hopefully, losses are minimal to none, thanks to the abyssimal japanese tactical bombers.

Given that the western allies understand the gravity of the situation soon enough, and compensates (at least) my loss of resources with Lend Lease, I should now be able to hold the pact almost regardless, due to all the militia that I can now build, and due to the ease of redeployment provided by land actions.


quote:

ORIGINAL: dale1066

I agree very interesting stuff looks like '41 barabarossa is a dead duck.

Just one question what sort of an effect does japan putting pressure on the ussr in the far east have? say threatening to take vladivostock and the available resources in siberia in summer '40. Can Vlad be made too tough to crack ? or do you give it up? will any lost resources, extra garrisons have an impact?

I guess the point I'm trying to make is can the second parner in the axis, Japan have a strategy to counter this rather good russian one?




(in reply to dale1066)
Post #: 68
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/10/2007 3:25:58 PM   
hakon

 

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1. 7 chits. It's more or less the last chance to start pulling back without risking leaving a big target behind. (You may still have to leave a few garr at the border, but that should not be a big deal.) Exactly what numbe you need, depends on what optional rules etc are in use, whether Italy has (or can realistically) take Hungary, etc. Also, try to get as much information as possibe about the american entry chits. If everything is about average, 13-15 is what you should require to try to hold the stuff, or lower if you are willing to dow Japan or Italy in an emergency.

2. This is not the prime reason. Only the armor div and any lnd4 takes 4 turns to build. The regular armor are probably already built (if you want them) as they provide as much garrison per build point as infantry. The prime reason is that you may need nov/dec to get the most expensive assets away from stuka range, so that a j/f barb is not such a threat.

Of course, being bable to build 6 fighters before m/j 41 may be important, as opposed to only 3 if you wait one turn.

Btw, in 1940 you should keep as many chits face down as there are turns left in the year, or even one more. This will keep the german guessing, and it also increases the chance of you breaking the pact while germany is busy in france. Normally this should be your best chits, but if your chits are a bit low, you may keep the 0s face down instead, hoping that germany will switch focus to the med.


quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

Thanks for the analysis. A few questions:

1. When are you looking at the chit values to determine your relative chances? After 6 chits (during S/O '40) or after 7 chits (build phase of S/O '40)?

2. Giving up the stuff strategy must be done not later than S/O '40 to build the anti-air, anti-tank, etc.?

Off to WiFCon tomorrow.





< Message edited by hakon -- 8/10/2007 3:28:14 PM >

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Post #: 69
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/12/2007 10:40:35 AM   
dale1066


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I guess the answer is none then

I agree with your points re Vlad always thought that myself, though sometimes think putting up a tough fight for it and the resources can distract the japanese player and screw up his timetable. Its easy to get suckered in for just one more push and get caught out by bad weather this applies in china to IMHO. Do you need to set up with your forces eg siberians/Zhukov around Chita ? as surely if they are in the Vlad area the rail line would get cut and they would then be isolated and eventually destroyed?

quote:

so Japan must commit significant forces against me if attacking, which is very good for China.

Definately tho' I still feel that Russia must do something positive to help China, esp at the new scale, I'm really looking forward to seing how that battle goes on the new map.

How can you judge wether Ger is planning '41 or '42 barbarossa in the winter/spring of '40 say?

Also if the japanese player mounts a major offensive vs siberia as soon as weather/forces permits, at the cost of limited chinese gains and you believe that a '41 barb is on the cards, thereby giving up the factory and the four resources (nice bonus for japan) by say the summer. The japanese player can enforce peace keeping them. Can allied resource lending replace all of them? If not surely over time those lost resources will have an impact?

Re allied help, I would send you the helpful resources and LL ASAP but not sure all the players I know would after giving Japan such a free hand





(in reply to hakon)
Post #: 70
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/12/2007 2:26:38 PM   
wosung

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: hakon
Russian dow on Japan for the extra militia [...]


I see, it's a game option. But what would be historical rationale for such a move?

Out of fear for a German attack Stalin decides to stage an additional, potential full conflict in the east, just to militarize the already militarized Motherland of Revolution even more (aka: extra militia)??

IRL int the phase of military and industrial modernization Stalin desperatedly struggled to avoid full scaled war at all, and even more so war on two fronts.

This was his rationale for Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (Russian ressources to one of the ideological enemies for peace in the West and for a nice prolongued war of attrition between Fascists and Capitalists).

This was his rational also for supporting Chinese Nationalists more than Chinese Communists: Military aid to an multi-ideological anti-Japanese "People's Front", esp. to it's stronger member.


As for different IT/CW strategies, discussed in another thread:

CW DOW on Italy just works as an option, because in the game it's 100% sure, that IT anyway joins the Axis.

IRL CW political leaders weren't sure on that. They hoped, that Mussolini, who had played the peace loving mediator in Munich, stayed neutral.

Even GER hoped that IT would stay neutral. It would have allowed them better access to the world market on rare ressources. It would have spared them military aid to weak IT in the Med. It would have denied WIF players Rommel dreams.

To simulate historical configuration in the Med, you would need IT entry chits, with a certain "danger" to stay neutral. Not very player friendly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: hakon
My thesis is that given optimal grand strategy by all parties, the current rules for stuffing effectively removes the 1941 barbarossa as a strategy in the game, and turns the game into an altenative-history-game built for exploring what Hitler could do if he didnt attack Stalin in 1941.


That's what I also think. I repeatedly posted that. But I can live with that alternative-history, if there's a way for the player to preset AIO grand strategical behavior.

IMO it's better to have historical plus alternative historical options than only to have alternative historical routes.

National and individual perceptions of World War Two are different around the world. What is fantasy, probability, history will be debated forever. As tastes are not uniform, maybe strategic openess and options could strengthen MWIF customer base.

Regards



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Post #: 71
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/23/2007 7:23:18 AM   
hakon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wosung


quote:

ORIGINAL: hakon
Russian dow on Japan for the extra militia [...]


I see, it's a game option. But what would be historical rationale for such a move?


Absolutely none. Then again, I see no historical rationale for the stuffing rule restricting a German dow in the first place.

What I am trying to do, is just to find the best strategies for each country given the Rules as Written, or eventually Rules as Coded. In particular, I want to shed light on strategies that I consider exploits, so that the rules can be changed in such a way that the game becomes better.

Personally, I hope for changes to both the US entry system, and to the balance of the 1941 stuffing situation by pach 1.3 or something, and maybe also some re-balancing of a 1941-barbarossa such that total blow-outs are less likely to happen if russia does not stuff that year.

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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/23/2007 7:31:39 AM   
hakon

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dale1066

How can you judge wether Ger is planning '41 or '42 barbarossa in the winter/spring of '40 say?



That really depends on Germany's builds, and their further plans. Lots of subs/navy/navs/marines built by the western axis, makes a 1941 barbarossa not only less likely, but also less deadly.

Of course, germany can do a Spain-41 based on units not that different from normal Barb-41 builds, so it can be summer or even autumn of 1940 before it becomes clear what Germany intends.

(in reply to dale1066)
Post #: 73
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/23/2007 1:22:16 PM   
dale1066


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Is that the detail in the top right ?

in the game I got it from the CW in M/J 1940 imp 7

From a quick scan of the position it doesn't seem to inculde naval units at sea that are still organised and in a 1+ box but does include disorganised units and units at sea in the 0 box





Attachment (1)

(in reply to hakon)
Post #: 74
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 8/23/2007 1:26:32 PM   
dale1066


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Not sure how this got cross posted should be in the Optional rules thread bugger wheres the embarrased emoticon :)

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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/12/2007 6:23:56 AM   
buckyzoom

 

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I think I'm an OK player. I've played Russian a couple of times and every day of the week I'd prefer to defend against a '41 Barb then a '42 where there's been a well executed Close the MED strategy and BOA. It's even worse if its combined with solid Japanese play.

The reason is that the Axis builds aren't linear they are exponential relative to the USSR. If you've ever seen the strategy where the Italians focus on air and send it East you know what I'm talking about. The WALLIS spend a lot of time rebuilding the CW and replacing lost builds before they can have a strong second front. (Italy doesn't count.) Meanwhile you here this course as many as seven times, "SUPER-LAND MANSTEIN!", and, "SUPER AIR BALBAO!". I'm not exaggerating. From MAR/APR '42 to JUL/AUG '44 I had 14 German and Italian O-chits dropped on me. I don't know if that's above average or not, but it felt like terrible.

During a '41 Barb there's a lot fewer units on both sides. As the USSR player you're going to loose whatever Army you build to the Germans in the first year of the Barb. You're likely to get hurt during the second Summer too. So when do you want to loose your army - '41 or '42? My opinion is that if its '41 you have a year longer to come back.

We still came back in this game, but we ran out of time before we could push through France. Germany doesn't have to defeat any country except France. They just have to kill enough build points so that the Allies can't mount a comeback before the game ends.

For this reason I prefer NOT to stuff, but rather hang some stuff out there to tempt the Germans to DOW me as soon as possible.

Thoughts?

< Message edited by buckyzoom -- 12/12/2007 6:24:21 AM >

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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/12/2007 6:57:21 AM   
brian brian

 

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I've done exactly that to get the Germans to declare a couple times, quite successfully. One time the German was just spinning his wheels anyway - until I launched the Bulgarian Gambit, even re-orging the TRS to land an HQ and a MECH - it was like throwing out a foot long sucker minnow under a big ole bobber (the TB-3s are soo nice). I'm not afraid of a 1941 Barb as the Russians at all - unless my western "Allies" are weak. I played a game this year though, where the deeper the Germans went into Russia, the more carriers the US built. (I was Japan). This didn't work out too good for the good guys.

One time Uncle Joe even had to summon Mao to the Urals to help out, things were looking bleak, but I was still across the Vistula by the fall of 1944.

Plus, if you lose your army in 1941, you can scrap the junk earlier and build up a better % of the white prints.

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Post #: 77
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/12/2007 10:20:59 PM   
Anendrue


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Interesting analysis from a number crunching viewpoint. Therefore I believe this is good work for MWiF, PBEM, and other long term games. But for the shorter more emotional games whwere people gather around my table. I find the number crunching is there but the psychological pressures are too... And that causes more people to ignore the numbers than use them. The exception usually being time tested opponents who will use anlysis such as this to rip apart their enemy with sobbing gasps of ... OMG there's panzers in the southern oil fields of Russia and why is Moscow University teaching German language lessons.

In all seriousness the analysis is great!

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Post #: 78
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/13/2007 12:42:40 AM   
buckyzoom

 

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Something I'm seeing in the two games I'm playing currently is the German player allowing the claim, denying Hungary's and Bulgaria's claims and then DOWing Bulgaria right off the bat.

I'm interested to see how this plays out...

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I've done exactly that to get the Germans to declare a couple times, quite successfully. One time the German was just spinning his wheels anyway - until I launched the Bulgarian Gambit, even re-orging the TRS to land an HQ and a MECH - it was like throwing out a foot long sucker minnow under a big ole bobber (the TB-3s are soo nice). I'm not afraid of a 1941 Barb as the Russians at all - unless my western "Allies" are weak. I played a game this year though, where the deeper the Germans went into Russia, the more carriers the US built. (I was Japan). This didn't work out too good for the good guys.

One time Uncle Joe even had to summon Mao to the Urals to help out, things were looking bleak, but I was still across the Vistula by the fall of 1944.

Plus, if you lose your army in 1941, you can scrap the junk earlier and build up a better % of the white prints.


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Post #: 79
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/13/2007 1:51:42 AM   
brian brian

 

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generally though as the Russians I don't mess with Bulgaria, I'd rather the US pick entry option 19 ASAP

and as the Germans I like the No Bessarabia Impulse 3 DoW on Yugoslavia

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RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/13/2007 2:25:05 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: buckyzoom

Something I'm seeing in the two games I'm playing currently is the German player allowing the claim, denying Hungary's and Bulgaria's claims and then DOWing Bulgaria right off the bat.

I'm interested to see how this plays out...

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I've done exactly that to get the Germans to declare a couple times, quite successfully. One time the German was just spinning his wheels anyway - until I launched the Bulgarian Gambit, even re-orging the TRS to land an HQ and a MECH - it was like throwing out a foot long sucker minnow under a big ole bobber (the TB-3s are soo nice). I'm not afraid of a 1941 Barb as the Russians at all - unless my western "Allies" are weak. I played a game this year though, where the deeper the Germans went into Russia, the more carriers the US built. (I was Japan). This didn't work out too good for the good guys.

One time Uncle Joe even had to summon Mao to the Urals to help out, things were looking bleak, but I was still across the Vistula by the fall of 1944.

Plus, if you lose your army in 1941, you can scrap the junk earlier and build up a better % of the white prints.



What about Hungary?

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to buckyzoom)
Post #: 81
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 12/13/2007 2:54:01 PM   
buckyzoom

 

Posts: 69
Joined: 10/31/2005
Status: offline
In both cases (I'm in two games and wind up playing maybe twice a month) the German player has opted to activate Rumania and use their forces to siege Sofia. Again in both cases they attacked France and this is where the difference start.

In one game France fell in JAN/FEB '40. In the second game France is fighting on and will fall traditionally in late MAY/JUNE or JUL/AUG. If the GE player is willing to drop the O-chit its likely over.

Another difference in the game and part of why France fell in '40 is that the BEF went to Albania and has just activated Yugoslavia. The Axis allowed the CW and France to DOW Italy. Both Italian transports have been sunk along with four or five SCS. I think there are currently 11 Italian SCS in the repair pool (at the end of the MAY/JUN '40 turn).

Interestingly the US is still on a pretty traditional US Entry path in the game where France fell early.

In the game where France is still fighting the US is screaming in.

My expectation is that in both games they'll mop up Eastern Europe on the way to Russia.

TTFN,

b5

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


What about Hungary?


(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 82
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 1:03:23 AM   
Zorachus99


Posts: 1066
Joined: 9/15/2000
From: Palo Alto, CA
Status: offline
Hi All,

I just want to let you know that the stuff is alive and well.  It effectively removes the chance of doing Barb 41.

Steps to reproduce?

1) Ignore chits (they offset on average in 41)
2) Declare war on Japan with The USSR and build Mil.
3) Build all other USSR garrison efficient units.

You can fight on the pacific map with a few good units worth just a small amount of garrison, and stuff Germany every time even with a lower-than-average chit pull.

I know this is a contested issue on wifdiscussion list, but I recently experienced a stuff... and have a dim view WIF now.

I moved about 90% of my army to the east but it was completely futile...  I've done Barb probably 20 times but never so blatantly stuffed.

The people out there who buy the game expecting to DOW the USSR are going to be very dissapointed if you create a USSR AI that stuffs.

My 2 cents AI wise.

How many people do you know that buy a WWII simulation to find out they can't DOW USSR?  Many purists would say that Germany could have attacked early if not for Yugo and Greece.  Historically July 22 1941 was the DOW.  In WIF and MWIF, if the USSR chooses to prevent it, they will.

Gamey ways to fix the problem:
1) Have italy conquer poland and very carefully choose what hexes will remain german (this makes the pact irrelevant as Italy can DOW USSR; ZOC and ground strike a bunch of border units reducing their garrison to zero, and then Germany can DOW theoretically afterward).
2) Have italy send every BP to Germany, have Germany build only Mil, Inf, Mech, Arm (planes are garrison inefficient).  Watch Germany completely lose control over the skies of France.  Have I ever mentioned that aircraft are the core force multiplier that makes france conquerable?

I doubt many agree completely from this evaluation, but as the game designer, you are entitled to one persons opinion.  Besides, one persons drivel is anothers mana.

Cheers



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(in reply to buckyzoom)
Post #: 83
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 3:38:32 AM   
sajbalk


Posts: 264
Joined: 7/11/2005
From: Davenport, Iowa
Status: offline
I agree that the USSR can stuff. However, you should agree that the allies will not resign if the USSR tries to stuff, fails, and finds all its units flipped at the border and destroyed.

Other ways to fight the stuff:
1) play with Politics in Flames units. This gives Germany a free SS unit for Vienna, Paris, Amsterdam, and possibly Zagreb.
2) Hold off on aligning Rumania. Then Russia must congregate in Poland and the Baltics, where you can more easily kill them.
3) Surrender as Japan and thus remove all the MIL, wasting the USSR build points. You would want to do this in M/A.

The chits are not irrelevant. It is rare that the chits will be exactly 2:1, so you must count and recount.





_____________________________

Steve Balk
Iowa, USA

(in reply to Zorachus99)
Post #: 84
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 3:50:56 AM   
Zorachus99


Posts: 1066
Joined: 9/15/2000
From: Palo Alto, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

3) Surrender as Japan and thus remove all the MIL, wasting the USSR build points. You would want to do this in M/A.



This option is not in MWif

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Most men can survive adversity, the true test of a man's character is power. -Abraham Lincoln

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Post #: 85
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 5:23:00 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22075
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99


quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

3) Surrender as Japan and thus remove all the MIL, wasting the USSR build points. You would want to do this in M/A.



This option is not in MWif

I am not sure what you mean by surrender. If you are referring to the the ability of the USSR or Japan to force a mutual peace under certain conditions, then that is part of MWIF (though not coded yet).

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Zorachus99)
Post #: 86
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 5:51:04 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 8184
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99


quote:

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

3) Surrender as Japan and thus remove all the MIL, wasting the USSR build points. You would want to do this in M/A.



This option is not in MWif

I am not sure what you mean by surrender. If you are referring to the the ability of the USSR or Japan to force a mutual peace under certain conditions, then that is part of MWIF (though not coded yet).

Do you mean the original Mutual Peace rule or the new one where either side can surrender any time?

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Post #: 87
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 6:00:18 AM   
BallyJ

 

Posts: 142
Joined: 5/25/2008
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It is interesting to note that there is another tread going that talks about how easy it is to take Gibralta and how this is a great plan!?
This is a game based on history not history.
I don't think stuffing the border will always work for Russia.
When it does fail the USSR is caught on the border with no where to run.
This game has worked well for a very long time.
Give it a go.

(in reply to Zorachus99)
Post #: 88
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 6:21:40 AM   
paulderynck


Posts: 8184
Joined: 3/24/2007
From: Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99
Gamey ways to fix the problem:
1) Have italy conquer poland and very carefully choose what hexes will remain german (this makes the pact irrelevant as Italy can DOW USSR; ZOC and ground strike a bunch of border units reducing their garrison to zero, and then Germany can DOW theoretically afterward).

This just plain won't work. 19.5 says: "Axis units may not cross the partition line after the USSR exercises its rights unless Germany and the USSR are at war." So Russia claims East Poland on Impulse 2 and the "common border" for the neutrality pact has nothing to do with it. The Partition Line has everything to do with it. Italian land units and air units cannot cross it. So they have to move or fly south through Rumania or north through Lithuania to get at the Russians.

So then Russia claims the Baltic States and Germany aligns Rumania and the common border rule then says Italians must teleport out of any hexes within 3 hexes of the Russian border the instant Italy DoWs Russia. And all those hexes become uncrossable for Italian air units.

Plus Italy will have a very tough time taking out Poland by itself. Any help from Germany with that which results in German controlled hexes in West Poland will create problems for Italy due to the common border. But this is just a minor irritation compared to the Partition Line rule.

_____________________________

Paul

(in reply to Zorachus99)
Post #: 89
RE: 'stuffing' the border - 10/20/2009 3:35:15 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Paul, what he means is Italian troops take part in the attacks on Lodz and Warsaw and occupy those cities, thus giving the credit to Italy for the conquest. So at least some of the hexes that would be on the common border are now Italian hexes and are no longer part of the common border (to be part of the common border between Germany and USSR Axis-controlled hexes must be German-controlled hexes as per 9.5).

The partition line is in fact the irrelevant factor in this case as what matters is Italian hexes are now adjacent to USSR hexes, allowing the Italians to enter USSR territory, ZoC units if they are stacked up front and ground strike others in the event that the USSR is trying to stuff.

Gamey but legal per the rules.

To quote the relevant passage:

quote:

Your common border with another major power consists of every hex you (or your aligned minor countries) control within 3 hexes and/or hexdots of a hex controlled by the other major power (or its aligned minor countries). [Emphasis mine.]


For the Axis, 'you' is Germany when discussing the Germany-USSR non-aggression pact. Italy doesn't count, nor do Italian hexes in Poland lined up against USSR hexes.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 90
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