Harrybanana -> RE: HB (Axis) vs MM (Allies) No MM for now (12/19/2020 12:07:11 AM)
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My opponent tells me that the convoy was open, but he has withdrawn his escorts so all his convoys are now unescorted. I am thinking I might do the same thing in our mirror game. Escorts do not directly prevent MS from being sunk. In other words, whether a convoy is escorted or not it will lose the same number of MS. So escorts only indirectly prevent MS from being sunk by damaging subs and forcing them to return to port early to repair damage. This is fine once escorts start damaging subs on a regular basis. But with 1939 tech (and even 1940 tech) and even with the sub chaser ASWs, sub losses are pretty rare. 4 months into this game I have had only 2 subs damaged and in the mirror game I haven't scored a hit on MMs subs at all. Meanwhile we have seen a combined 6 escorts sunk. So combining the games the Allies have lost 240 escort production and the Germans have lost 20 (is it 10 production per hit of damage?). Again, maybe this is not a large enough sample size. But even if 1 escort (40 production) was sunk for every 1 point of damage to a sub (10 production); I think you would mathematically still be better off pulling your escorts until you can obtain a more favourable ratio once you have 1941 tech or later. And keep in mind that it is not just the production cost, but the production time as well. A destroyed escort take 15 turns to replace, a damaged sub takes 1 or 2 turns to repair. Edit: Having said all of the above, in another set of mirror games I am playing against a different opponent almost the exact opposite has occurred. After about 3 months I think we have suffered a combined 6 U-Boat losses against only a combined 1 escort loss. So luck obviously plays a big factor.
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