Combat odds calculation q (Full Version)

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The Land -> Combat odds calculation q (7/31/2020 4:33:07 PM)

Does the defender's readiness affect the defender's losses? (And does the attacker's readiness affect the attacker's losses?)

I thought the answer was No but it seems it might be Yes.

I have a Strategic Bomber unit. Its readiness is 68% and its attack value against all land units is 1. So it should do 0.68 damage. This should not be affected by the defender's readiness (though the damage I'd expect to receive would be, though they all have defence ratings of 0 in any case).

I target a Corps at Readiness 76% and the attack is marked as 0-1. I target a Tank at Readiness 99% and it is marked as 0-0. Same with an Army at 107%. All units have level 0 AA tech, none are in escort range, all are upgraded with level 1 Inf Weapons or Advanced Tanks (which do not affect Strat Bomber Attack or Defence.)

Please let me know!




El_Condoro -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (8/1/2020 2:48:42 AM)

7.29.4 on p. 86 shows the calculation for combat - readiness is definitely an important factor.




The Land -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (8/1/2020 11:05:17 AM)

So to answer my own question, yes it does - 7.29.7, in fact:

Attacker Losses = Defenderís Combat Multiplier * (Defense Type Value + Defender Experience / 3) - Attacker Multiplier * Attacker Experience / 3 

Defender Losses = Attacker Multiplier * (Attack Type Value + Attacker Experience / 3) - (Defender Multiplier * (Defender Experience / 3 + Defender Entrenchment + Defense Bonuses)


So the attacker's losses aren't affected by its Attack or Defence values, but ARE affected by its own Readiness and Experience levels.

Things I never knew....




Alcibiades73 -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/5/2021 7:52:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: The Land

So to answer my own question, yes it does - 7.29.7, in fact:

Attacker Losses = Defenderís Combat Multiplier * (Defense Type Value + Defender Experience / 3) - Attacker Multiplier * Attacker Experience / 3 

Defender Losses = Attacker Multiplier * (Attack Type Value + Attacker Experience / 3) - (Defender Multiplier * (Defender Experience / 3 + Defender Entrenchment + Defense Bonuses)


So the attacker's losses aren't affected by its Attack or Defence values, but ARE affected by its own Readiness and Experience levels.

Things I never knew....


I haven't a clue what this means.

I've been looking into how combat losses are calculated myself, and I haven't found anything that is comprehensible to my mathematics-challenged brain. Can you explain in layman's terms?




The Land -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/6/2021 8:21:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alcibiades73


I've been looking into how combat losses are calculated myself, and I haven't found anything that is comprehensible to my mathematics-challenged brain. Can you explain in layman's terms?


I'll try!

So, the damage the attacker DOES is based on:
* the attacking unit's Attack value for the defender's unit type [if the defender is a Mechanised for instance then the Light Tank Attack value is used]
* the relative tech levels of the two units [The lower tech level is knocked off the higher one; if a unit with Infantry Weapons 2 attacks one with Infantry Weapons 1, then the attacker gets the benefit of one tech level]
* BOTH units' readiness, experience and HQ leadership
* the defending unit's Defence bonuses (from terrain etc) [if you're in a high Defence bonus terrain like a city for an infantry unit, you take less damage]
* the defending unit's Entrenchment

So, the damage the attacker TAKES is based on:
* the defending unit's Defence value for the attackers unit type
* the relative tech levels of the two units
* BOTH units' readiness, experience and HQ leadership





Narisomo -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/22/2021 4:23:53 PM)

I have a follow-up question. The actual result may differ from the prediction by 1 on each side. Is the probability of this always the same, for example at 0:0 compared to 0:8? Or is the attacker in the second case so much stronger that it is very unlikely the result will be 1:8?




BillRunacre -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/24/2021 10:33:26 AM)

A couple of changes were introduced in 2018 that may be of relevance to your question:

+/- 1 combat results modifier will now only apply to units that have an attack/defend value > 0, e.g a naval unit attacks land units with an attack value of 0, so defending land units will now no longer have the +/- 1 combat results modifier applied.

ē +/- 1 combat results modifier will no longer be applied to defender losses if the calculated defender losses would be greater than the remaining defender unit strength, i.e. unit will be beyond destroyed.




Narisomo -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/24/2021 7:53:27 PM)

Thanks, this is good to know. [:)]




The Land -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/25/2021 8:36:29 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Narisomo

I have a follow-up question. The actual result may differ from the prediction by 1 on each side. Is the probability of this always the same, for example at 0:0 compared to 0:8? Or is the attacker in the second case so much stronger that it is very unlikely the result will be 1:8?


So in general I believe the odds of variability are the same at 1:1 as at 5:5.

However what I don't know is how the 1-point variation works out when the actual odds are fractional. If the calculated damage from something is 0.35, that will display as 0 even though there's a 35% chance of it actually being 1. Is there then more randomness applied so there is some chance of it actually doing 2 damage, or is it capped at 1?





Hubert Cater -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (5/26/2021 7:24:09 PM)

In this example, it doesn't work out to being a 35% chance of being a 1, it is either going to be a 0 or 1 or 2 or whatever the calculation will be for the losses once the final loss value is rounded to a whole number.

After that, there is that possibility of an extra +/- 1 added to the loss calculation.

Hopefully that makes sense?




The Land -> RE: Combat odds calculation q (6/2/2021 8:34:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hubert Cater

In this example, it doesn't work out to being a 35% chance of being a 1, it is either going to be a 0 or 1 or 2 or whatever the calculation will be for the losses once the final loss value is rounded to a whole number.

After that, there is that possibility of an extra +/- 1 added to the loss calculation.

Hopefully that makes sense?


So fractional changes in Readiness don't make any difference at all, unless they push a calculated value above or below an integer? If you have a unit with Attack Value 1, then if it's at 95% readiness it will show 0 and do 0 or 1 damage, if it's at 105% readiness it will show 1 and do 0-2 damage?




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