RE: Witness to World War 2. (Full Version)

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rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 2:02:50 AM)

The End of Stizkrieg and the Beginning of Blitzkrieg.

Turn 6. May/June 1940. Axis #1.

The Axis get the initiative and the weather is fine across the map.

Neville Chamberlain's position as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is in doubt.

There's lots of maneuvering, and much chatter, between Winston Churchill and Lord Viscount Halifax.

Chamberlain's government is teetering ...

German Panzer and Luftwaffe engines are revving ...

To Be Continued ...

[image]local://upfiles/31901/7B2CCAD3060F4B95B2D29BEBFE52EB8E.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 2:06:27 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Rotterdam was not being supplied by the British via the North Sea. The North Sea could have been securely held by nothing but Axis naval/air forces and Rotterdam would have still been in supply.

The notional unit holding Rotterdam would be a Dutch unit - absent any other Allied country's unit being present. Rotterdam is a city in the Netherlands and thus a notional unit in a still unconquered Netherlands would never be out of supply.
Wow ... the OKH is in error in determining their original error ...

Many thanks for the clarification! [&o]




brian brian -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 3:02:00 AM)

(most of this post will move beyond how MWiF is currently coded, because these will all be large challenges to code)

re: Russo/Japan pact - requested by Stalin, with designs on Persia. Although I have heard of some groups starting with such a Pact in place, this is not actually explicitly allowed in the rules, at the start of the game. 2 players could agree to one informally, before starting, but the rules would not prevent them from breaking their word on the first turn.

This is because - "Major powers from opposing sides can agree to enter into a neutrality pact during any peace step provided they are not at war with each other." The set-up rules nowhere grant a chance for this to happen. Existing Pacts are noted at the beginning of a scenario.

The rules also allow this: "Two major powers at war can agree to come to peace on any terms mutually acceptable (except for transferring units)."

I have never been 100% clear on whether Powers not at war can thus make a more free-wheeling Pact or can only make a basic non-aggresion Pact with no alterations of territory or a trade agreement. But 2 Powers at war definitely can, using "any terms". Paging Paul D, Paul D to the Rules Rules Rules courtesy line, please.

Now when Joe asks Tojo for such a Pact early in the game, Tojo is usually going to reply - "How many Oil will you send me to say Yes?" Because Tojo knows the Russians are somewhat resource-rich because their resources only generate 0.25 and then 0.5 Build Points, each. And Tojo can really really use some extra oil, both to fuel operations in China and to fuel his more efficient factories. He also knows one reason Stalin is requesting this Pact - Persia - which can be a glittering prize for Tojo as well, as can most of the coastal bits of Russia's Maritime Province, often without Russia being able to do all that much about it, in either locale. The IJN is a powerful force on the board, and Tojo is not going to agree not to molest such easily taken prizes for nothing. He can often gain more in Siberia+Persia, more easily, than he can from those stubborn Chinese, and his teammates back in Europe will be gleefully drinking toasts in his honor, but not really doing much else to help him, so Tojo is kinda interested in Joe's offer, and he stays on the line to listen to what else Joe might say.

Then Joe will answer - "And how many Build Points will you send me back?" - because he needs full build points to build his armies, not partial build points.

So a deal will be cut for 3 Russian Oil to go to Japan in exchange for 2 Build Points. Or some variation on those #s in a negotiation.

Keep in mind that WiF is designed to be a 5 player game, with one individual winner, not an everyone-is-a-winner Team game. And all this begins to impact USA - USSR relations. And the USSR might need the USA's help to stay alive in the deep darkness that is December, 1941, with Adolf's troopers looking at the spires of the Kremlin in their binoculars. A USSR sending oil to fuel the IJN might not be too appreciated by Franklin.

Especially if a war-happy Soviet Union forces the withdrawal of a beefy "5" chit from the US Entry Pool in 1939, before the USA can move it to the Tension Pool and take a large step toward it's First Gear-Up. In 1940 with a pool full of "Zero" chits, the USA might feel differently.

In almost every AAR in this forum, the Russians take Persia and feel there are no down-sides to their actions. And the Japanese blithely ignore the whole thing. I will tell you, as Japan this is precisely the move I most want the Russians to make, unless the crafty Allies invade Persia with multiple Major Powers simultaneously, as they did in history, and are very thorough about this.

Without a Pact in place, Russia DoWs Persia, Japan aligns it and instantly dispatches reserve forces carefully held on standby in Canton or Hainan, 24/7 every impulse of every turn of the game so far. They occupy some of the oil wells and ports; meanwhile they announce "We declare War on the USSR." Persia surrenders and Japan holds all of the oil, with very little that the Russians can do about it, absent some risky die rolls with some expensive PARAtroopers, perhaps. Paratroopers that still might survive, but might suddenly meet a combat experienced Japanese INFantry army, with carrier-borne Zeroes flying overhead, with some suspected Japanese Battle Cruisers on the ocean horizon, starting to twinkle with little lights in sets of 3 on each end, while the Paras are still disorganized and out of supply, and Zhukov a month worth of marching away.

Meanwhile, back in the Maritime Province, the Imperial Guard and the "Sasebo" and "Kure" Marine Expeditionary Forces, backed by more Zeroes overhead and an impressive line of Battleships that look incredibly massive in the Russian scout's binoculars, casually stroll ashore at most any point they wish, followed soon by Japanese HQ logistics troops and further troops to begin the soon to end siege of Vladivostok, as reports of breaks in the Trans-Siberian railway begin to slowly reach Moscow - something about Japanese infantry having been airlifted into a remote corner of northern Manchuria and then marching across an undefended border. Rumors of small Japanese mobile forces operating in the wastes of Mongolia also begin filtering in...




brian brian -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 3:10:49 AM)

The key information was probably lost in a memo sent from OKW to OKH, or vice-versa, depending on which officer is asked.

You would probably enjoy the book

Inside Hitler's Headquarters, 1939-45 by Walter Warlimont, one of Hitler's operation officers.

Probably available on Amazon used for just a few dollars. Warlimont was on the Operations Staff of OKW. Trying to run the war with both OKW and OKH was pretty much a mess for the Germans, thankfully for the Allies. OKH did not just casually answer "Ja" to orders from OKW - they were 2 independent power centers within the German regime.




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 1:31:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian
re: Russo/Japan pact - requested by Stalin, with designs on Persia. Although I have heard of some groups starting with such a Pact in place, this is not actually explicitly allowed in the rules, at the start of the game. 2 players could agree to one informally, before starting, but the rules would not prevent them from breaking their word on the first turn.

This is because - "Major powers from opposing sides can agree to enter into a neutrality pact during any peace step provided they are not at war with each other." The set-up rules nowhere grant a chance for this to happen. Existing Pacts are noted at the beginning of a scenario.

The rules also allow this: "Two major powers at war can agree to come to peace on any terms mutually acceptable (except for transferring units)."

I have never been 100% clear on whether Powers not at war can thus make a more free-wheeling Pact or can only make a basic non-aggresion Pact with no alterations of territory or a trade agreement. But 2 Powers at war definitely can, using "any terms". Paging Paul D, Paul D to the Rules Rules Rules courtesy line, please.

Now when Joe asks Tojo for such a Pact early in the game, Tojo is usually going to reply - "How many Oil will you send me to say Yes?" Because Tojo knows the Russians are somewhat resource-rich because their resources only generate 0.25 and then 0.5 Build Points, each. And Tojo can really really use some extra oil, both to fuel operations in China and to fuel his more efficient factories. He also knows one reason Stalin is requesting this Pact - Persia - which can be a glittering prize for Tojo as well, as can most of the coastal bits of Russia's Maritime Province, often without Russia being able to do all that much about it, in either locale. The IJN is a powerful force on the board, and Tojo is not going to agree not to molest such easily taken prizes for nothing. He can often gain more in Siberia+Persia, more easily, than he can from those stubborn Chinese, and his teammates back in Europe will be gleefully drinking toasts in his honor, but not really doing much else to help him, so Tojo is kinda interested in Joe's offer, and he stays on the line to listen to what else Joe might say.

Then Joe will answer - "And how many Build Points will you send me back?" - because he needs full build points to build his armies, not partial build points.

So a deal will be cut for 3 Russian Oil to go to Japan in exchange for 2 Build Points. Or some variation on those #s in a negotiation.

Keep in mind that WiF is designed to be a 5 player game, with one individual winner, not an everyone-is-a-winner Team game. And all this begins to impact USA - USSR relations. And the USSR might need the USA's help to stay alive in the deep darkness that is December, 1941, with Adolf's troopers looking at the spires of the Kremlin in their binoculars. A USSR sending oil to fuel the IJN might not be too appreciated by Franklin.

Especially if a war-happy Soviet Union forces the withdrawal of a beefy "5" chit from the US Entry Pool in 1939, before the USA can move it to the Tension Pool and take a large step toward it's First Gear-Up. In 1940 with a pool full of "Zero" chits, the USA might feel differently.

In almost every AAR in this forum, the Russians take Persia and feel there are no down-sides to their actions. And the Japanese blithely ignore the whole thing. I will tell you, as Japan this is precisely the move I most want the Russians to make, unless the crafty Allies invade Persia with multiple Major Powers simultaneously, as they did in history, and are very thorough about this.

Without a Pact in place, Russia DoWs Persia, Japan aligns it and instantly dispatches reserve forces carefully held on standby in Canton or Hainan, 24/7 every impulse of every turn of the game so far. They occupy some of the oil wells and ports; meanwhile they announce "We declare War on the USSR." Persia surrenders and Japan holds all of the oil, with very little that the Russians can do about it, absent some risky die rolls with some expensive PARAtroopers, perhaps. Paratroopers that still might survive, but might suddenly meet a combat experienced Japanese INFantry army, with carrier-borne Zeroes flying overhead, with some suspected Japanese Battle Cruisers on the ocean horizon, starting to twinkle with little lights in sets of 3 on each end, while the Paras are still disorganized and out of supply, and Zhukov a month worth of marching away.

Meanwhile, back in the Maritime Province, the Imperial Guard and the "Sasebo" and "Kure" Marine Expeditionary Forces, backed by more Zeroes overhead and an impressive line of Battleships that look incredibly massive in the Russian scout's binoculars, casually stroll ashore at most any point they wish, followed soon by Japanese HQ logistics troops and further troops to begin the soon to end siege of Vladivostok, as reports of breaks in the Trans-Siberian railway begin to slowly reach Moscow - something about Japanese infantry having been airlifted into a remote corner of northern Manchuria and then marching across an undefended border. Rumors of small Japanese mobile forces operating in the wastes of Mongolia also begin filtering in...



quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

(most of this post will move beyond how MWiF is currently coded, because these will all be large challenges to code)
A very interesting post and one that you make me want to try in a future game. With respect to actually implementing the trade of 3 Soviet Oil in exchange for 2 Japanese Build points, which I assume is what you're referring to about being beyond MWiF current code, it would be a "piece of cake" to implement this trade through editing the game file.




Centuur -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 4:44:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian
re: Russo/Japan pact - requested by Stalin, with designs on Persia. Although I have heard of some groups starting with such a Pact in place, this is not actually explicitly allowed in the rules, at the start of the game. 2 players could agree to one informally, before starting, but the rules would not prevent them from breaking their word on the first turn.

This is because - "Major powers from opposing sides can agree to enter into a neutrality pact during any peace step provided they are not at war with each other." The set-up rules nowhere grant a chance for this to happen. Existing Pacts are noted at the beginning of a scenario.

The rules also allow this: "Two major powers at war can agree to come to peace on any terms mutually acceptable (except for transferring units)."

I have never been 100% clear on whether Powers not at war can thus make a more free-wheeling Pact or can only make a basic non-aggresion Pact with no alterations of territory or a trade agreement. But 2 Powers at war definitely can, using "any terms". Paging Paul D, Paul D to the Rules Rules Rules courtesy line, please.

Now when Joe asks Tojo for such a Pact early in the game, Tojo is usually going to reply - "How many Oil will you send me to say Yes?" Because Tojo knows the Russians are somewhat resource-rich because their resources only generate 0.25 and then 0.5 Build Points, each. And Tojo can really really use some extra oil, both to fuel operations in China and to fuel his more efficient factories. He also knows one reason Stalin is requesting this Pact - Persia - which can be a glittering prize for Tojo as well, as can most of the coastal bits of Russia's Maritime Province, often without Russia being able to do all that much about it, in either locale. The IJN is a powerful force on the board, and Tojo is not going to agree not to molest such easily taken prizes for nothing. He can often gain more in Siberia+Persia, more easily, than he can from those stubborn Chinese, and his teammates back in Europe will be gleefully drinking toasts in his honor, but not really doing much else to help him, so Tojo is kinda interested in Joe's offer, and he stays on the line to listen to what else Joe might say.

Then Joe will answer - "And how many Build Points will you send me back?" - because he needs full build points to build his armies, not partial build points.

So a deal will be cut for 3 Russian Oil to go to Japan in exchange for 2 Build Points. Or some variation on those #s in a negotiation.

Keep in mind that WiF is designed to be a 5 player game, with one individual winner, not an everyone-is-a-winner Team game. And all this begins to impact USA - USSR relations. And the USSR might need the USA's help to stay alive in the deep darkness that is December, 1941, with Adolf's troopers looking at the spires of the Kremlin in their binoculars. A USSR sending oil to fuel the IJN might not be too appreciated by Franklin.

Especially if a war-happy Soviet Union forces the withdrawal of a beefy "5" chit from the US Entry Pool in 1939, before the USA can move it to the Tension Pool and take a large step toward it's First Gear-Up. In 1940 with a pool full of "Zero" chits, the USA might feel differently.

In almost every AAR in this forum, the Russians take Persia and feel there are no down-sides to their actions. And the Japanese blithely ignore the whole thing. I will tell you, as Japan this is precisely the move I most want the Russians to make, unless the crafty Allies invade Persia with multiple Major Powers simultaneously, as they did in history, and are very thorough about this.

Without a Pact in place, Russia DoWs Persia, Japan aligns it and instantly dispatches reserve forces carefully held on standby in Canton or Hainan, 24/7 every impulse of every turn of the game so far. They occupy some of the oil wells and ports; meanwhile they announce "We declare War on the USSR." Persia surrenders and Japan holds all of the oil, with very little that the Russians can do about it, absent some risky die rolls with some expensive PARAtroopers, perhaps. Paratroopers that still might survive, but might suddenly meet a combat experienced Japanese INFantry army, with carrier-borne Zeroes flying overhead, with some suspected Japanese Battle Cruisers on the ocean horizon, starting to twinkle with little lights in sets of 3 on each end, while the Paras are still disorganized and out of supply, and Zhukov a month worth of marching away.

Meanwhile, back in the Maritime Province, the Imperial Guard and the "Sasebo" and "Kure" Marine Expeditionary Forces, backed by more Zeroes overhead and an impressive line of Battleships that look incredibly massive in the Russian scout's binoculars, casually stroll ashore at most any point they wish, followed soon by Japanese HQ logistics troops and further troops to begin the soon to end siege of Vladivostok, as reports of breaks in the Trans-Siberian railway begin to slowly reach Moscow - something about Japanese infantry having been airlifted into a remote corner of northern Manchuria and then marching across an undefended border. Rumors of small Japanese mobile forces operating in the wastes of Mongolia also begin filtering in...



quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

(most of this post will move beyond how MWiF is currently coded, because these will all be large challenges to code)
A very interesting post and one that you make me want to try in a future game. With respect to actually implementing the trade of 3 Soviet Oil in exchange for 2 Japanese Build points, which I assume is what you're referring to about being beyond MWiF current code, it would be a "piece of cake" to implement this trade through editing the game file.


The problem with this strategy is, that the Japanese will have the Marines, an HQ and a couple of corps sitting in port doing nothing against the Chinese...

And that's exactly what I want to see as Uncle Joe. If I keep those Japanese troops out of China, I'm a happy man. If those troops go into China, I'm also a happy man. [:D]







brian brian -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 5:16:55 PM)

I would disagree. The Marines garrison Korea temporarily, and accomplish something aside from being something that is always valuable in War - a strategic reserve. Commit the Marines deep into China and Stalin might get more adventurous, which might be good for the Axis, might be bad. Maybe sending them into China might help tempt the Russians to pull this trigger, and that might be what the Axis wants. After the first 4-5 turns of the game, the Japanese will know whether Persia will come into play at all or not. If there is not a 1941 Barbarossa on the horizon, this entire strategic calculus needs to be re-thought, completely.

The reserves held to intervene in Persia need not be more than 3 CP (excess capacity anyway), a fast TRS, the Kongo class BBs and some CVs, all with nothing to do in 1940, an INF (pick the 4 movement point one), and an infantry division, all in the convenient Major Port of Canton. The INF + division is about what you want to garrison the key hex of Canton, anyway, against unexpected Chinese Nationalist/partisan surprises, and you need garrison points in China. Overall, the forces Japan needs to hold for this eventuality are minimal, are part of garrisons they need to maintain anyway, detract little from the effort against China (tho the Imperial Guard is nice on the front lines there) and can be easily replaced by other weak units rotated in from inside the Japanese empire if the time comes, using the railroads. The TRS doing nothing every turn does not bother much either as they rarely land more than 3 units in China per turn. Late in a turn, maybe you can still use it for something anyway. The Russians can't launch a DOW on Persia late in a turn and risk a 2nd unit appearing in Teheran, with no more surprise bonuses for their bombers. The Japanese do not need to hold an HQ in any kind of reserve; one of those isn't needed until the Japanese wish to operate beyond a coastal hex, and can easily arrive on the 2nd turn of war with Russia. The Japanese have essentially interior lines against both of their possible opponents in 1940; their enemies do not.

One of the most common ways I have ever seen, several times, for Russia to lose the war starts with a ground war in 1940 vs. the Japanese, who still have great strategic freedom as China can not yet threaten their interests much at all. This is the most desired outcome by the commander of the grey pieces, as much as the red pieces - but not the peeps running the green pieces or the blue/khaki pieces.


I would say this has more pay-off for the Japanese in RaW7 than in CE rules now, though Oil is something Japan can never have enough of, even when burning it at 2x the rate while the oil sits outside of Japan. They will lose access to Persian oil by late 1942 inevitably in every game, but not before potentially adding up to 36 Oil points to the Axis along the way, and this might encourage their European allies to get serious in the eastern Med, beyond which lies a treasure trove that can sometimes allow the Germans to stand up to the ultra-rich Jolly Green Giant, for a while at least.




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 5:17:07 PM)

1930's Japan.

Though some would say that Great Britain, France and Germany were fighting a "phoney" way from Sep/Oct 1939 - Mar/Apr 1940, there was nothing phoney about the war Japan had been waging on the Asian continent since they had invaded Manchuria on September 18, 1931.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/EDC911A70BDA4609AE7D41F4B93B2494.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 5:30:04 PM)

Japan. Asia. Sep/Oct 1939.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1.With Korea and Manchuria under the control of the Japanese and the threat of (more) war with the Soviet Union diminished significantly through the Molotov-Tojo Agreement that was turned into a Japanese-Soviet non-aggression pact (treaty), the Imperial Japanese Army, Navy and airforces have turned their attention to acquiring more needed resources in China and to degrading China's ability to wage war. To accomplish the later the Japanese turn to a strategy of bombing Chinese factors. To accomplish the former they turn to their Armies currently in or in the process of deployment in Japan.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/226C7D85DC4041BFA235D263B2D0F326.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 6:49:17 PM)

Japan. Central China. Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939.

Axis #1. The only possibility for any immediate land combat in China was by Army Group Umezu in Central China facing the Nationalist. A tempting target was the city of Changsha, directly northeast of the Anitomny resource that General Umezu was tasked to acquire. If General Umezu could capture Changsha and destroy, or shatter, the two Nationalist armies there he'd not only be in position to quickly complete his task of capturing the Anionmy resource but he'd be in position to cutoff and possibly destroy two (more) Chinese armies.

Ironically, with all the talk of strategic bombing in the previous post, the first air mission of the "official" second world war for Japan was a ground strike against the two armies occupying Changsha. The ground strike was carried out by a 1-factor bomber, which meant a p0 = 0.1. Thus, only a 10% chance that any given, of the two, units would be disorganized. Not surprising, the ground strike missed both Nationalist units (81% chance pre-strike of that happening).

Umezu, who's HQ-I provided +1.5 in HQ support, order the attack on Changsha to proceed at +5.571, which included 3 factors of ground support. After some deliberation between maximizing risk to the Japanese attackers versus minimizing risk to the Nationalist defenders the Nationalist elected to force Japan to use the assault table. The odds of victory at +5.571 assault against two defenders was 32.5%, a bit less than 1 in 3. General Umezu urged his troops forward shouting that the Japanese Bushido spirit would overcome any deficiencies in odds that the Japanese might have. So the resolution for this land combat went this way. Japan failed to make the fractional (57.1% that they would) and then rolled a 6 for a final land combat result of 11. Apparently the Nationalist had just shoved the Japanese Bushido spirit back at them. The attack resulted in the loss of the 3rd inf division and the disorganization of the remaining five attacking units.

Allied #2.During the allied impulse the Nationalist 17th infantry army directly east of Ichang moved and put the surviving Japanese 12th inf and 2nd SNLF div at B out of supply. With these two units disorganized by the previous unsuccessful Japanese combat this meant the two units defended with a total of 2 factors. The Nationalist, who were in position to counterattack with four armies, could only get +1 with Chinese attack weakness and having to attack across the Hsiang river. Then, given that the Japanese had 1 factor of ground support in range this meant a shift down in the odds to +5.667. Even without the threat of Japanese ground support this attack was deemed WAY TO RISKY for the Nationalist and was called off before it was even serious considered.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/02D5BF463E5C4B7787D46F1F362171C4.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 7:38:50 PM)

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Japan vs Nationalist Chinese (con't).

Axis #3. Because of Umezu's defeat at Changsha, the stand up of Admirals Yamamoto's Army Group in southern China (Canton Area) is accelerated. Japan takes a combine and Yamamoto's HQ-I, Oasak MIL Army, Imp Guard Marine Division, 1st Eng div, 47 mm A/T div are loaded onto transports and moved out into the China Sea (0-box). The combine is used to unload Yamamoto's HQ-I, 1st Eng div and 47 mm A/T div. Note that the 1st Eng and 47 mm A/D divisions were loaded on the same transport and, therefore, both had to be disembarked during the same impulse.

Japan (strat) bombs Sian but misses (i.e., no effect).

Axis #5. Land Combat at [84,141] to reopen a supply and reorg path to the IJA 12th infantry army and the 2nd SNLF div.

Recall that the optional rule, "Isolated Reorganization Limits [RAW option 47 section 13.5]" is be used and will be "manually" applied as necessary. This means if a supply route, which can be of any length, can't be opened up to these two units then they won't be able to be reorganized between turns. So while these two units are safe from destruction the success of this land combat will determine whether or not these two units will be "available" next turn.

The attack odds are +16 on the assault table which gives a 98% chance of success. There's no fractional. Japan rolls a 14, which gives a final result of 30. The relief attack is an overwhelming success and supply is reopened to the 12th army and 2nd div.

Axis #13. Japan (strat) bombs Kumming to effect and reducing Chinese production by 1 PP.

The turn ends on this impulse and the situation in "Nationalist" China at the end of turn is shown below.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F67A5680651E4896BAB6B49F590900B5.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 7:43:11 PM)

Turn 1. SEP/OCT 1939. Japan. Communist China.

General Terauchi who moved (i.e., railed) down into northern China from Korea this turn spent the entirety of the turn establishing his army group and his initial defensive positions against the Communist Chinese. Terauchi primary mission, for now, is defensive and requires him to secure to Japanese factories three resources at [73,143], [77,148] and [68,141].

[image]local://upfiles/31901/DB1CCED069514A59BF692D4DD664F43B.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 7:43:58 PM)

Turn 1. SEP/OCT 1939. Destroyed Pool.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/3A687A624D094EF18FE9100DCC72440B.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 8:18:45 PM)

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. China.

Allied #1. The Nationalist in the Changsha area are faced with a critical decision, do they try to hold the resource and factory or retreat? After due deliberation it's determined that their defensive position in the area is untenable and therefore the decision is made to retreat and save all the units they can. This means that Nationalist will be ceding Chansha, a blue factory and a resource to the Japanese.

Axis #4.

Japan (strats) bomb Sian but missed (i.e., no effect).

Japan ground strikes two out of supply Chinese armies, the 1st Inf and Shanghai MIL, trying to extract themselves from the Chansha pocket. With rain the 3 tactical factors used in the ground strike are reduced by-half (rounded off) to 2. The ground strike flips the the 1st Inf army reducing the combine defense strength of the two units from 8 to 4 since 1 of the 2 units is now disorganized in addition to being out of supply.

Japan captures the open city of Chansha. USE chit roll is a 6. No chit added.

Japan musters +16 in land combat odds against the 1st Inf and Shanghai MIL armies. The Nationalist select the blitz table to maximize the chance of survival (of their units) even though this increases PWIN for the Japanese from 99% (assault) to 100% (blitz), decreases the chance Japan must take a loss from 10% to 3%, and increases the chance that all attackers remain organize from 85% to 94%. In additional to the difficulty in rebuilding loss units because of China's anemic production, the loss of the Shanghai MIL would be permanent because Japan controls Shanghai. The final result of this attack is 28 (i.e., there was no factional and Japan rolled a 12), which results in the destruction of both Chinese armies. The Shanghai MIL is gone for good (or for as long as Japan controls Shanghai).

Axis #10. Japan (strat) bombs Kweiyand and misses (i.e., no effect). The turn ends at the conclusion of this impulse.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F589A1BDD1DD408B9BD745236590D546.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 8:43:13 PM)

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. China.

The USA opens trade to China (i.e., USE option 9) and sends the resources in the Philippines to the Chinese factory in Kumming via the Burma Road. The allies move first this turn.

Axis #4. Japan closes the Burma road, which blocks the Philippine resource from reaching Kumming. USE roll is a 7, which means no chit is added to the Japanese entry pool because of this action.

Japan (strats) bombs Sian but misses.

Axis #10. Japan (strats) bombs Kweiyang but misses.

Japan attacks Kweilin, and the Nationalist 8th Inf and 1st Inf Div defending the city at +11.25. The Nationalist decide to force the Japanese to attack on the assault table. For this land combat at +11.25 A, PWIN=11.25%, Pr{Japan takes no losses}=PNL=62.8%, Pr{All attackers remain organized}=PORG=47.5 and Pr{1/2 attackers remain organized}=PHOG=33%. Resolution. Japan misses the fractional and rolls a 12, which gives a final result of 23! Right on the money. Japan destroys both defenders, takes no losses and sees no units disorganized (except for Yamamoto who provided HQ support).

The turn ends at the conclusion of this impulse.

Close examination, or maybe not so close, of Chaing's situation and the two units stacked with him reveal that his stack is in a VERY vulnerable position. If the axis move first next turn then they'll be able to put his stack out of supply and have him surrounded on 5 or 6 hexsides. So, getting the initiative and moving first is a high priority for both sides.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/7084926415A14D9CAA0945ACA2B97D4D.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 10:13:32 PM)

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. China.

The allies win the initiative and unsurprisingly elect to move first. An interesting decision on the axis part as they could have requested a re-roll (allies won first roll 7 to 2+1=3). However, though the axis moved second last turn they actually held the initiative (i.e., they elected to move second last turn). This meant that in a re-roll, neither side would have a modifier and the allies would win ties. This gave the axis a 45% of winning a re-roll. Not wanting to give up the +1 modifier, because next turn (May/June 40) on the Western Front is likely to be a critical turn, on a 45% chance of getting the initiative, the axis "vote" 2 to 1 (i.e., German & Italy vs Japan) NOT to request a re-roll. Japan is not happy but must accept the vote. The allies are moving first and Chaing and his stack are safe, at least for the moment.

Axis #3.

Japan ground strikes a 3-stack, with contains at [90,138] (1 & Tin RP), which contains Chaing's HQ-I, inf army and AT div, with 1 air factor (i.e., p0=0.1). The 57 mm AT div is disorganized. (Note that the screen cap shown is for the end of turn, which shows Japan as controlling this hex. The Nationalist defenders either moved or were force to retreat from this hex during the remainder of this turn.).

Japan launches a land combat against a lone Chungking MIL army in hex [87,138] at +8.250 on the assault table. The IJA is victorious (i.e., they destroy the MIL) but lose the 20th and 25th infantry armies and are unable to advance into the hex because of the need to reorganize the surviving attacking units. To add salt to this Pyrrhic victory by the Japanese, the Nationalist 1st cavalry corps later in the turn moves into and takes up a defensive position in the hex just cleared by this land combat.

Axis #5. Japan (strat) bomb Sian without results. They also (strat) bomb Kweiyang, also without results.

The IJA conducts a land combat against the Nationalist 4-2 inf army and 2-3 (disorganized) AT div defending [90,138] (i.e., (1) or the Tin RP hex). The odds are +9 and the Nationalist elect to force the Japanese to attack on the Blitz table. There's no fractional and Japan rolls a 9, which gives a final result of 18. The Nationalist must retreat from the hex but take no losses. The Japanese too take no losses but must disorganized half of their attackers. Most importantly though, they capture the Tin resource in that hex and are able to immediately transport it to a Japanese factory.

Axis #12. The turn ends and the situation in China at that time is shown below. Of note are: (1) the 5 Chinese RP's controlled and employed by Japan are shown and (2) Terauchi's Army Group facing the communist (continues) to get additional reinforcements and grow in size. But, so does Mao's communist Chinese army (group).

[image]local://upfiles/31901/731637060AEA4487B4DBF9FEAC2A8545.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 10:45:18 PM)

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Japanese-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact.

1. 1st year after the pact was made, so the pact can be broken if offensive total exceeds opponent defensive total by a factor of 2 or more. Garrison values are doubled (1 year after) for defensive totals.

2. Japanese garrison = 6. Offensive marker total = 0. Defensive marker total = 3.
Offensive total = 6.
Defensive total = 2 x 6 + 3 = 15.
USSR offensive total required to break the pact >30.

3. USSR garrison = 5.5. Offensive marker total = 0. Defensive marker total = 0.
Offensive total = 5.5.
Defensive total = 2 x 5.5 = 11.
Japanese offensive total required to break the pact >22.

4. Japan unable to break the pact (6 - 22 = -16).

5. USSR unable to break the pact (5.5 - 30 = -24.5).

FYI. The Japanese Ki-27 fighter unit in Seoul, which is more than 3-hexes away with a common border with the Soviets, is not contributing to Japan's pact garrison ratio. This unit was moved in to ensure a high anti-partisan garrison ratio in order to avoid the chance of partisans appearing in Korea and seizing the resource northwest of Seoul or some other vital hex.

FYI #2. Japan is allowed to draw a pact chit in any turn in which they didn't draw one in the previous turn (i.e., every other turn). The Soviets are allowed to draw one pact chit per turn. However, this is one total between their two neutrality pacts (i.e., Nazi-Soviet and Japanese-Soviet). So far, the Soviets have elected to put that chit every turn into the Nazi-Soviet pact so they've so far have drawn no chits for the Japanese-Soviet pact.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5072079166DC4564BB36BEDEDFBCCD60.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 10:46:02 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Partisan Numbers.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/9A29732082C7480DAF0CD46622398256.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/6/2019 11:36:19 PM)

September 1, 1939. Great Britain's Life Blood.

Note. This information is just After Germany's DOW on Poland and their alignment to the CW. CW controlled factories totals include the 3 Polish factories, 2 of which are producing.

Great Britain's life blood are the sea lanes bringing sorely needed resources to that island nation. Even for France, this life blood is critical to feeding their factories too.

The First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill is ecstatic over the job his convoy routers have done. No sea area has more than 10 CP's, which would give axis sub -2 instead of -1 modifier to their search roll. And, all available resources have been either routed to factories, or in the case of oil, saved.

Winston sits back in his chair looking at the wonderful convoy routes displayed on a large map on the wall. Bravo, Bravo ...

[image]local://upfiles/31901/4B7C8AC1070C4E73B55D29189A771579.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/7/2019 12:15:51 AM)

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #1. (Start of Turn). CW/French Convoys and Production.

Well, Churchill's happy mode quickly turned to rage when the Canadian merchant ships REFUSED to sail through the Faeores Gap, instead going through the Bay of Biscay and clogging up Britain's life blood.

The situation shown is at the start of the Nov/Dec 1939 turn. The only two relevant changes since setup (above) are:

(1) Great Britain loaned (really gifted) the two resources in Malaya to France and

(2) A dang French Indo-Chinese partisan popped up and seized the resource at Hanoi knocking French production down by 1 PP until the British can get the resource in New Caledonia flowing to France. Ho Chi Minh we're coming for you. If not today, later!

[image]local://upfiles/31901/BE95705F06D4428A9088960935995D57.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/7/2019 12:26:21 AM)

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. CW/French Convoys and Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E3504B97BC684F5EA4CE680201180184.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/7/2019 12:36:01 AM)

End of Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. CW/French Convoys and Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/A5756A0EAD1342EEA46472FB0773253D.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/7/2019 12:44:02 AM)

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. CW/French Convoys and Production.

Finally, the allies, specifically the CW, were able to find and get a spare CP into the Coral AND Timor Sea and route the New Caledonia resource to a French factory.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/ACCAEFE6D4374DA38BF4FA21D6668E09.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:19:29 AM)

The Phony War. Axis Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/EEA5656457F04F33BD8E07D316840D37.jpg[/image]


NOTE:
FAC = X | Y => X=# of factories production, Y=total # of factories

BP = # BP's available for production (includes trade to/from)

OIL = # total saved oil at the end of production




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:20:29 AM)

The Phony War. Chinese Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/A402852DB7FA41D386007F9ACD690966.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:20:56 AM)

The Phony War. Soviet Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C8C7A9C4174F4A84ACBD130D755C1749.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:21:18 AM)

The Phony War. Western Allied Production.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/B16510DBA3604B11B63525843004092F.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:21:47 AM)

The Phony War. Production Summaries.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/6BC76583DB284AA9931BF23ABDA5860A.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 12:59:58 AM)

USSR. End of the Phony War. Turn 5. May/June 1940

Eastern Poland. Claimed by the Soviets on turn 1 (Sep/Oct 1939), allied #2 impulse (i.e., first allied impulse of the game). This cost the US German/Italian entry pool 1-chit of value 2.

17 Sep 1939. Molotov – “Warsaw, as the capital of Poland, no longer exists. The Polish Government has disintegrated, … Polish State and its Government … ceased to exist … Poland … constitute a threat to the USSR … order troops to cross the frontier and to take under their protection the life and property of the population of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. …”

Baltic States. Bessarabia. Persia.

Stalin while ruthless is also a patience man. He has bide his time with respect to Bessarabia, the Baltic States and Persia. Stalin's patience in regards to the Baltic States and Persia has been more to do with US (Ge/It) entry chits and values (i.e., waiting until a number of lower (expected) value 1940's chits are in the pool) and, additionally for Persia, waiting for the right weather.

Concerning the soon to be Soviet acquisition of Bessarabia, Stalin's patience there was driven by the need to avoid war with Romania and the high probability (80%) of losing 2 US Ge/It entry chits. At best, war with Romania would cost 1 entry chit (20% chance of that). US chit losses aside, with all his other expansion plans the last thing Stalin wanted, or needed, was to have the Red Army tied up in a war with Romania with the real likelihood of quality German peacekeepers rushed in to aid the Romanians. Stalin’s plan to “peacefully” acquire Bessarabia is four pronged, and really simple, but does (did) require patience. Stalin's 4-prong plan: (1) position an entire Red Army Front on the border with Romania, (2) position Soviet strategic bombers in range of the Ploesti oil fields, (3) delay any claim until Germany is fully engaged with France and Great Britain on the Western Front and (4) wait for fine weather to maximize the risk of Soviet strategic bombers to Hitler’s vital oil fields at Ploesti. The Soviets were able to deploy 8 strategic factors (3 air units) within range of Ploesti which means that during fine weather, which there is now, there's a 20% of knocking out 1 oil point for the turn, 20% of knocking out 2 and a 30% of knocking out 3, and a 10% chance of destroying 1 oil point. With Case Yellow just starting, it's safe to assume that Hitler is very unlikely to risk a major blow to his precious oil supply. It that isn’t enough to convince Hitler to pressure Romania to accept a Soviet demand for Bessarabia then the fact that an entire Red Army Front is sitting on the border ready to destroy and breakthrough surprised Romanian defenders should be.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/9924DA1E67294152BFF25091054FCAEB.jpg[/image]




rkr1958 -> RE: Witness to World War 2. (1/9/2019 1:08:38 AM)

CW. Near East. End of the Phony War. Turn 5. May/June 1940.

Even with things over in Europe heating up, Great Britain has placed a high priority on protecting their valuable possessions in the Near East. Most, if not all, of the troops deployed there are there to guard against or prevent partisans.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/782335034FEE4ABB8A0D5E90EF05EB6A.jpg[/image]




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