RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/6/2019 1:19:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/19/45 to 2/21/45

The Northern Front: Escorted daytime B-29s made a mess of Takao, Formosa's airfield, destroying 100+ aircraft on the ground. Dave keeps basing aircraft forward. With the P-51Ds available for escort duty, daytime raids are efficient and effective. Over on Luzon, the Allied army moving down the peninsula will arrive at Naga in about three or four days. A smaller, mobile army is about to move on Aparri. I don't think John has seriously reinforced the little unit that landed without any guns. If that's
... Snipped




Ok, now I get your drift and the import of the winky smilie! [&o]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/6/2019 1:57:34 PM)

2/25/45 to 2/27/45

Around the South China Sea: No sign of KB or Kaigun since the big battles around Luzon. Since the Allies have so many big airfields around Luzon now, Dave may be reluctant to commit that far forward. If so, his next chance to contest on neutral ground might be in a week or so, when DS escorts supply TFs to Hainan Island.

Next attack at Singers the day after tomorrow. The last limited attack (by armor) showed enemy AV at 5500, forts at 7. If both of those figures drop, then Singers won't last too much longer.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/948E5D0413824E1D9D7975333D82ED02.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/7/2019 2:36:05 PM)

2/28/45 to 3/4/45

Prosecuting the End Game: The Allies are in position to push to the end game now. The lead is 26.5k, with 14.5k needed. Singapore should provide between 3.5k and 4k points. Strat Bombing should provide 5k or more in the next month. Manila/Clark/Legaspi should provide 5k to 6k points, although I don't think I'll get Clark in that period and Manila is iffy. Finally, Dave is continuing to fight hard, pushing assets forward and losing some ships and aircraft. If I can keep my ships losses within reason, I think there's a chance to achieve victory in 30 days, or roughly a month earlier than in my game with John III (which was a May 11, 1945, auto victory).

It's interesting that in my game with JIII, the Allies had to take all of China and Formosa and part of Korea while pounding the Home Islands by air. The reason, of course, was the immense fighting (Sumatra, etc.) early in the game - bloody clashes that weakened John but gave him a tremendously large denominator.

Here victory should take place a month earlier and much further "south."

Fighting hard isn't always fighting smart.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CF1B935896FA4782A00DB569BF337155.jpg[/image]




Capt. Harlock -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/8/2019 4:11:29 AM)

One rather peculiar thing: the IJA defenders at Singapore are now showing a minus for experience. Shouldn't they have gained experience from the previous attacks? Or is the game calculating that the veteran troops have taken the heaviest casualties?




crsutton -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 1:49:13 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Ross, I think of you all the time! IE, you're missed around these parts. I just pondered your disappearance yesterday, figuring you'd had your fill and moved on to new endeavors and pursuits.

Emmylou Harris!


Well, I have been remiss about following the forum as of late. Been a rough year with family and health issues. Was enjoying my motorcycle until I herniated a disc in early June. A long painful road back but am feeling pretty good now. Doing a lot of swimming which eats into leisure time but it is good for me. I still have one campaign going with my old pal Viberpol and we are close to 11/44 but we are on the slow bell and that is about it for this game. Nice to check in and see everyone still here. Some new players too.

[image]local://upfiles/8095/E23F72D432E140D5AA563B854294E62F.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 2:21:32 PM)

Hey, Ross, keep riding! I'm glad you're on the mend and that you're still playing the game. We miss you here in the Forum. Both you and Bullwinkle were in the room the past few days. Good company.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 2:26:55 PM)

3/5/45 to 3/12/45

Prosecuting the Endgame: The strategic bombing campaign is generating a lot of points. There aren't that many bombers involved, and there haven't been many raids yet, but setting a handful of fires at Osaka is a big, big deal. Dave has a few night fighters present but I don't think much CAP. The Allies already have 5k+ strategic bombing points with hopes of harvesting a bunch more while Dave scrambles to configure his defenses. Strategic bombing offers the best hope of driving to auto-victory by the target date of 4/11/45 (that would be a month earlier than my game with John III, which is my current record).

Singapore should fall within the month, adding 4k to 5k points. But Manila and Clark Field are too tough to contribute base points inside a month. The other possible source is anything Dave might do to battle at bad odds. He might commit his carriers or combat vessels to take on DS or the big B-29 base at Appari.

Once Singers falls, and assuming AV is imminent at that point, the Allied army there would probably get divided - part going to help at Luzon, part going to Indochina to coordinate with the Allied army currently posed north of Bangkok (strong enough to menace but not strong enough to actually take on the sizeable IJ army at Bangkok).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/25A593D0AFB74535BE5B5152DBF24F19.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 3:29:24 PM)

3/13/45

Singapore: Allied attack comes off at 3:1, drops forts to 4, and results in sizeable enemy men/items destroyed. Allied losses are low. The base may fall on the next attack. Many Allied unit have roughly 50/50 fatigue and disruption, so they'll need perhaps four or five days of rest.

Luzon: About 70 Randys destroyed by CAP at Aparri. I think these were kamikazes. They got chewed up with no Allied losses.

Dave's Grand Strategy: Dave pursued a very defensive strategy from the start of the game. He didn't push far and he built his interior defenses strong (Soerabaja, Singapore and Manila each has/had level 9 forts). He was at times aggressive with his Navy, sometimes with good effect and sometimes not. There are merits and demerits to his strategy, as with any. Ultimately, the softness of his approach left him with a meager denominator. The Allies have exploited that.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B375B8A0DB594BDB8EE9F54D8769B582.jpg[/image]




Capt. Harlock -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 3:48:28 PM)

quote:

Dave's Grand Strategy: Dave pursued a very defensive strategy from the start of the game. He didn't push far and he built his interior defenses strong (Soerabaja, Singapore and Manila each has/had level 9 forts). He was at times aggressive with his Navy, sometimes with good effect and sometimes not. There are merits and demerits to his strategy, as with any.


Granted I'm a Monday-morning quarter back, but I'm inclined not to be as forgiving of Dave's strategy, especially, his handling of the war in the air. PDU is on (which you were apprehensive about at the start), but in fact the Allies have harvested a much greater VP gain in the air than on either land or sea. And with a weakened air arm, Japanese power to resist seems to be substantially lower than one might expect for March 1945.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 6:17:46 PM)

3/14/45

Strategic Bombing: B-29s hit Osaka for the second consecutive night, this time igniting 76k fires, which is a significant number (there are still 18k residual fires when I open the file to enter orders for the next turn). Strat Bombing points up to 6,500. I'll keep working this angle hard, even forcing the B-29s when I would otherwise rest them, as Dave's defenses are vulnerable at the moment. Osaka is a plum target under these circumstances.

Singapore: Allied armor is rested up and will deliberate attack by themselves tomorrow. Next general attack in about three days. Singers should fall then or on the following attack, so within about 10 days.

Enemy Carriers: Just showed up between Formosa and China. Might be covering a supply/reinforcement run to Hong Kong or might leap forward to take on DS.

Things are dire for Japan, now. The only hope Dave has of dragging out the war is to somehow stop the massive bleeding that is Osaka or to somehow harvest a ton of points. But if he attacks, he's more likely to bludgeon himself. As for me, there's no need to attack forward. Singers and Strategic Bombing are no-risk/high-reward paths to victory.




JohnDillworth -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2019 10:02:17 PM)


quote:

Granted I'm a Monday-morning quarter back, but I'm inclined not to be as forgiving of Dave's strategy, especially, his handling of the war in the air. PDU is on (which you were apprehensive about at the start), but in fact the Allies have harvested a much greater VP gain in the air than on either land or sea. And with a weakened air arm, Japanese power to resist seems to be substantially lower than one might expect for March 1945.


I'm not sure what great forum sage said it but it is best if one "plays the player" instead of plays the game. Dan has a style and part of that style is the exploration of undefended bases and neglected red dots. Dave handles his navy quite well and is masterful at surprise, well coordinated attacks. Dave had some well built bases but they were often in proximity to undefended bases. A good Allied played can exploit and build those bases quickly and Dan is an outstanding player. Also of note this is a the stock scenario so non of the usual Japanese extras. Hopefully we will see a rematch in the future and Dave will keep an AAR so he can be advised of the cunning wiles of Floozy Dan




Capt. Harlock -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 3:54:38 AM)

quote:

Also of note this is a the stock scenario so non of the usual Japanese extras.


I am open to correction, but aren't advanced fighters (A7M, N1K-J, Ki-84, etc.) available in the stock scenarios, and able to be produced in larger numbers if the Japanese player spends research points?




JohnDillworth -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 8:25:33 AM)

I submit that Dave is the best Japanese player. Twice the Banzais and none of that tedious end game. Use all you toys, flip turns, have fun, rather, rinse, repeat. I presume the point of any game is to have fun and Dave seems to be having fun




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 11:48:53 AM)

Hey, that's a good way of looking at it.

The one thing he doesn't do is keep up NavSearch and Recon. I'm not sure if he finds it tedious or is mimizing ops losses. But it creates massive holes that the Allies can exploit and leaves him in the dark about Allied build-ups and intentions. This has been consistent throughout the game and it's a critical flaw.

But his aggressive carrier use has been unlike anything I've seen in my games with JIII and Obvert. Many, many times DS has steamed forth under circumstances where I was about to change configuration from defense to offense, "knowing" Dave would need a day or three to evaluate the situation before doing anything crazy. Nearly every time, he's leapt forward in the most surprising way. More often than not he's lost the ensuing battles but it has kept the Allied shipyards full of damaged ships.

He's a magnificent opponent - cordial, fast, fast, fast, rock steady.




PaxMondo -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 11:50:05 AM)

The challenge for IJ is SUPPLY. Production of late game toys for IJ is all about having the supply to field them. You can have 4M HI in the bank to build the AC, but you have to have another 4M supply to actually field them. Therein always lies the challenge for the IJ.

I would also submit that he had to deal with 3 different allied players, this is really tough. When on the defense you have to shape it towards your opponent, and that takes time.

Personally, I think he has played a masterful game considering the challenges. I'd love to see a re-match of both of you from the start.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 11:57:17 AM)

This isn't the game with Obvert, Pax. :)

Here's its Dave/Fabertong/The Penguin. He's only had to deal with one opponent.

And, yes, Obvert has played magnificently. I don't think playing three opponents has hindered him in the least, and in some ways its probably benefited him. Like Fibertong, Obvert is a real gentleman, easy going, and as terrific an opponent as you could hope to find. He's not nearly as fast as Dave, but to my knowledge Dave only has one game going while Obvert for some reason is handling three. Masochism.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 12:25:27 PM)

3/15/45

Prosecuting the End War: Effective attack on Osaka; encouraging limited deliberate attack on Singapore; Allies just 10k from AV.

Dave and I have never discussed victory conditions. I don't know his mindset. He may be 100% prepared to move on when AV is reached, or the thought mightn't have occurred to him. He may be focused totally on playing until the Allies hammer the Home Islands in a true end-of-war fashion.

I've been monitoring AV carefully, as you all know, but I'm also playing as if the game will last throughout '45. Everything is smoothly running, including convoys from the West Coast, moving troops forward, etc. If, by chance, Dave wishes to proceed, the Allies will first focus on Luzon and Indochina following the fall of Singers. Then China and Formosa would be the focal points.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/95E567ED208D442782CB50CC3CFC167A.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 2:20:28 PM)

3/16/45 and 3/17/45

Singapore: Next general attack to take place on the 18th. If both sides have the same adjusted AVs they showed in the last attacks, this one may come off at 6:1 or better. There are four forts, so probably the base won't fall quite yet. But it might.

Prosecuting the End War: The Allies are 9.5k from auto victory. They have 7340 strategic points (up 600 from two days back, which is slower progress). Most of the Superforts are in the midst of standing down for a few days. Osaka is burning pretty heavily, so the next raid might be split between Tokyo (for the B-29-25s) and perhaps Kobe or Hiroshima.




Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 2:28:32 PM)

Frankly, given the situation, I don't see a reason for your partner to extend the game beyond AV unless he really wants to play out a Downfall scenario.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 4:13:27 PM)

3/18/45

Singapore: Defenses collapse and the Allies take the base. Lots of points will accrue over the next day or two, as supply comes in. (Taking down this fortress with level 9 forts and a good garrison was a time-consuming task, but the Allies had the luxury of proceeding methodically and remorselessly since the base had become so isolated.)

Strategic Bombing: Residual fires at Osaka yield a fair amount of points. Tonight, the bombers will target Tokyo and Fukuoka. Dave will have the former heavily defended, but just a few hits may result in significant points, given the immense industry there.

Prosecuting the End Game: Allies a bit less than 8k from AV now. That may drop to less than 7k tomorrow, or the day after, as Singers supply situation normalizes. So the Allies may be about 6k or 7k from AV. Strategic Bombing seems to be the way to achieve those points. Let's see.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/281EDFD26E534C2E98AA933AB79F6C6D.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 6:15:02 PM)

Congrats on taking Singers back! Very efficiently done! I hope you had a chance to clear the mines before your transports come in.
Not sure where you get the figure of 106K for remaining defenders. The combat report says 73K before the battle with 5K losses, so ~ 68K left. That's about 2/3rds of the 106K. One possibility is that the AI counts the squads and multiplies by the number of men in that type of squad to get the figure for remaining troops (on IJA stack rollover) while the Combat Report has accurate info which takes into account squads that have men missing.


EDIT: I have seen this squad/men overcount before when looking at a unit I am about to load on ships. The figure for actual numbers of men in the upper center part of the LCU screen is often less than the personnel load cost at the lower left.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 6:54:03 PM)

I got the figure from mouseover of the base. Is mouseover more reliable than Combat Report or vice versa? I dunno.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 6:57:08 PM)

3/19/45

Prosecuting the End Game: Full credit for points at Singers and an effective nighttime raid on Tokyo yields a couple thousand points. Just 5.5k needed for auto victory now. That'll have to come from strategic bombing. I think that's viable. Allied raids are scoring well with minimal losses. The real problem seems to be absence of flak. I bet the AA units are defending the forward key bases.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E30FE2282F734A888CD1EF43E0579958.jpg[/image]




ITAKLinus -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 7:13:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I got the figure from mouseover of the base. Is mouseover more reliable than Combat Report or vice versa? I dunno.




From my experience , I'd say combat report. I usually get somehow consistent numbers in it.

Mouseover lies to me continuosly.



Maybe I simply have a peculiarly fraudulent mouseover, but my rule of thumb is: "never ever trust mouseover for troops numbers, but believe to it for LCU numbers".

I tend to trust it relatively much for the number of planes in carrier TFs, though.




jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 8:14:35 PM)

quote:

The real problem [for the Japanese] seems to be absence of flak. I bet the AA units are defending the forward key bases.


Sounds plausible, and an ironic problem for the Japanese player to have. Your rapid advance caught him flat-footed on this point.




Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2019 8:22:11 PM)

Mouseover can be very inaccurate, esp with bad DL. The numbers in the combat report are 100% accurate for the troops involved, but not necessarily all troops in a hex might be attacking.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2019 3:11:27 AM)

3/20/45

Galloping to Victory? The Allies need just 4.5k to achieve auto victory. If there's a bunch of "unconfirmed" sunk ships (and I think there are), it could be considerably less than that.

These are the "happy days" for the strategic bombers. Juicy bases within range without adequate defenses.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9AB4F1AA747B45D59805FF4E232D715A.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2019 5:29:25 AM)

With DS gone south for a few days, I think Dave's best move would be to assemble all the surface combat vessels he can in a flock of small TFs and send them to bombard Aparri with KB covering. Knocking out your B--29 base would stop the hemorrhage of VPs for a while.




PaxMondo -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2019 6:26:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This isn't the game with Obvert, Pax. :)

Here's its Dave/Fabertong/The Penguin. He's only had to deal with one opponent.

And, yes, Obvert has played magnificently. I don't think playing three opponents has hindered him in the least, and in some ways its probably benefited him. Like Fibertong, Obvert is a real gentleman, easy going, and as terrific an opponent as you could hope to find. He's not nearly as fast as Dave, but to my knowledge Dave only has one game going while Obvert for some reason is handling three. Masochism.

Oops! Sorry, got lost in all of the games you have going. [X(][X(][X(]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2019 11:49:09 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

With DS gone south for a few days, I think Dave's best move would be to assemble all the surface combat vessels he can in a flock of small TFs and send them to bombard Aparri with KB covering. Knocking out your B--29 base would stop the hemorrhage of VPs for a while.


That's what I figured. So Aparri is armed to the teeth. It has about eight nice combat TFs (DDs up to CAs; no lunky BBs) with tons of mines, PT boats, subs, fighters, and 1EB. I think the defenses are sufficient to cost him far more than he can gain.

He tried a bunch of raids early, lost three CLs and roughly 10 DDs, and hasn't been back.




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