RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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John 3rd -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 9:56:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Nope. Bomb all the oil you want.

If Japan wants to make sure you don't bomb it, then they need to take the appropriate steps to prevent you from doing so.

It's honestly easier to just capture bases in a certain order to prevent the bombers from flying at all (anything that is AF5 and within extended range, or anything that is AF2 and within normal range) than it is to cover the targets with CAP. It's not that big of a list of bases.


I am with Lokasenna here.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 10:29:55 PM)

12/10/41

Intellectus ex Nihilo, CenPac Version: Final decision made. I had a lot of information available, thanks to good nav search and various other data points. I don't know Dave well enough to predict what he'll do; only enough to think what an experienced IJ player might be likely to do. After considering these things I elected to take the chance. We'll know tomorrow if Nisi quantum ad informationem accipit illud, quod in.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/C3144D7C5848497FAE82B3AF9D45F95C.jpg[/image]




Lokasenna -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 10:51:37 PM)

I should have mentioned this earlier, if I'd thought of it then.

A surface intercept of KB, regardless of what did the intercepting, would probably have the effect of making further KB movements during the turn be towards its home base - retiring, regardless of whether the TF was set to remain on station or what its commander's aggression is (Nagumo's isn't high, but isn't low). This also appears to be the case even if the CV TF is set for Patrol instead of Remain on Station.

The TF's default home port at game start is Etorofu. He may have changed it. Regardless, they're all in one direction from where KB is now... and regardless of all of that, you've already ended the turn and this info is too late.




BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 11:42:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/10/41

Intellectus ex Nihilo, CenPac Version: Final decision made. I had a lot of information available, thanks to good nav search and various other data points. I don't know Dave well enough to predict what he'll do; only enough to think what an experienced IJ player might be likely to do. After considering these things I elected to take the chance. We'll know tomorrow if Nisi quantum ad informationem accipit illud, quod in.


I can't translate that much Latin, but the acidpit part sounds about right.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 11:48:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I should have mentioned this earlier, if I'd thought of it then.

A surface intercept of KB, regardless of what did the intercepting, would probably have the effect of making further KB movements during the turn be towards its home base - retiring, regardless of whether the TF was set to remain on station or what its commander's aggression is (Nagumo's isn't high, but isn't low). This also appears to be the case even if the CV TF is set for Patrol instead of Remain on Station.

The TF's default home port at game start is Etorofu. He may have changed it. Regardless, they're all in one direction from where KB is now... and regardless of all of that, you've already ended the turn and this info is too late.


Appreciate you giving me another "mare" to mess up my night. [:)]

Of all the ships I have out there, I did select one DMS and give her a heading I thought might have a chance of interdicting KB's likely path - hoping that the interaction might slow KB down.






Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 11:50:19 PM)

"Nisi quantum ad informationem accipit illud, quod in" is supposed to be a rough translation of "the quality of the information is determined by the mind that receives it."




Zorch -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 11:55:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

"Nisi quantum ad informationem accipit illud, quod in" is supposed to be a rough translation of "the quality of the information is determined by the mind that receives it."

Assuming you ask the right question.

The corollary to "Nisi quantum ad informationem accipit illud, quod in" is 'Garbage in, garbage out'.

[image]local://upfiles/34241/0A1F2CD2817E4BDB80BB7E0DE486684B.jpg[/image]




Bif1961 -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 2:39:12 AM)

My Enterprise took 4 500 pounders and had medium damage north of Ambom in Dec 41 after attacking part of the mini-KB. I bi her on cruise with the Lexington escorting and a day out of Darwin something went terribly wrong over night and she sanks had no idea she would go down as her fires were out and system was in the 30s and engineering was around 50% but float was in the 20s. Her loss was a huge and unpleasant surprise. Fortunately I san a CVL, CVE and 3 CAs in exchange and my opponent decided to ask for a do over after the first of the year. He had previously lost 2 CAs in a surface night engagement with TF-Z at Tarakan. While losing half the mini-KB was bad enough losing 5 CAs and 2 more with medium damage in the first 2 weeks of the war was too much not to start over.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 9:47:24 AM)

12/11/41

I've seen the combat report (the sync bug in this game has been brutal thus far - in the sync version for 12/9, Lex wasn't even torpedoed).

Here's what I read: No interactions with Lex whatsoever. No sign of KB whatsoever. Ent launches strike aircraft vs. the replenishment fleet.

It's lovely! It's beautiful!

What I won't know until I view the 001 movie: did Lex sink during her high-speed run? If not, is she still within view of KB? And is KB close enough to threaten Ent?

I'm about to view the movie now.

CenPac: "Cruciabilique exitu de Colligatio" (out-of-sequence is agonizing)




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 10:00:05 AM)

12/11/41

Spotted Enemy Carriers: This is the situation early in the "movie," just after I get an audio "spotted enemy carriers." I paused the movie, so you know as much as I do as I post this.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E813BCB390AA45B2840E9C1DE73A0BB0.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 10:27:06 AM)

12/11/41

Ready Fuel: The closest potential refueling TF is within helping range of Lex, should she survive another high-speed run, enemy subs, and any pursuing KB or combat TFs.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/BAFF5F9FDBFC4128A0D22CFB75D41977.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 10:35:00 AM)

12/11/41

Lexington: Sherman is an excellent captain and I'm (at this moment) a lucky player. Lex incurred minimal further damage.

Dave can do the math. This carrier TF (3/8 detection) is nine hexes SOUTH of where he knew a stricken TF was yesterday. The Enterprise TF is 14 hexes EAST of Lex's position yesterday.

That leads me to believe Dave will rightly deduce that Lex is to the south, made ten hexes, may not be as damaged as he feared (or perhaps he'll conclude she had to make a high-speed run and may not be capable of another).

He'll be concerned about his replenishment TF. He'll probably rightly decide that I can't risk Ent by "hanging around" to strike the oilers again. I don't know if he has the chutzpah to leave the AOs to his fate to chase Lex or whether he instead detaches a combat TF (with cruisers that have float planes) to try for an intercept.

I'm nearly certain Lex will do another high speed run, probably due south or possibly veering towards the merchantment to refuel. Dave's subs all over the place will begin circling.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0E4DAE29A3584683B3EFE1F2E5F351D0.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 11:00:52 AM)

12/11/41

Measures and Countermeasures: The working plan to (try to) extract Ent and Lex.

Dave's probable state of mind when he ran the turn and found Lex well to the south of KB, where KB had started the turn: [X(]


[image]local://upfiles/8143/40709624CFA54169A4F0D51E33D05459.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 11:56:25 AM)

12/11/41

Enemy Replenishment TF: Enterprise got into position for the bushwhack, but the SBDs let her down.

P.S. As noted above, the sync version had a much stronger strike. So I might question the wisdom of risking Enterprise on a mission of this sort, but there's no question that the plan, as conceived, might have delivered an effective blow.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/602EBA22BC9D4235810AE94262BA1537.jpg[/image]




Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 12:01:59 PM)

Middling results, but given Japanese damage control and the fact these were tankers full of fuel, they could very easily sink. Were there any "heavy smoke" "heavy fire" messages in the combat report?




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 12:10:54 PM)

I fast-forwarded though all the combat sequences during the movie. I do that routinely in every game (the animations take too long), but in this case I was even more anxious to hit the high spots in order to find out if Lex survived her highspeed run.

I might watch the combat replay again to learn more about the damage.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 12:48:30 PM)

Never mind that. The movie is the sync bug version, which is wildly different, so watching it again wouldn't tell me a thing.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 1:05:51 PM)

Still working on the turn.

I think the most proximate threat to Lex next turn will be enemy DDs or other combat vessels. I won't send any of the other fleeing USN combat ships to merge (a few are in position to do so) out of fear that it might somehow slow down Lex. But if Lex survives the next turn, she'll have to change over to normal speed and I should be able to make a merger of some kind. By then it might not be relevant - I wouldn't do it if KB was closing or, of course, if Lex goes under tomorrow.

Odds on her surviving now? Maybe 20%? 25%? Not good, but better than yesterday's estimated 0.2%.




Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 1:06:45 PM)

Well, based on the combat report you posted, one already has a "heavy smoke from fires obscuring" message and I would guess the others have some too. I'd bet at least one or two of those burn up.




BillBrown -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 2:16:42 PM)

I do believe that Canton Island has a lot of fuel in this scenario. It might be useful.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 2:28:58 PM)

If Dave has subs in the area, they'll report to all likely bases and shipping lanes. If Lex survives another turn or two, she'll refuel somewhere mid-ocean. There are now several options at sea From there she'd limp either to West Coast or possibly to Canal Zone and Eastern USA.

In addition to the combat ships at Pearl, all the minelayers have sortied. In a pinch, they could lay a long line of fields. That, too, is unlikely and at least two turns out. I'm trying to work every angle possible the might increase the odds of extricating Lex.

The turn is away. I tweaked Lex's orders - she's moving due south. Enemy patrols from the Marshalls might be able to pick her up, but I worried more about an ESE course being more predictable. Dave might think I'm making for Pearl or Johnston or in that general direction.

If KB has enough fuel to make another sprint, Lex is probably toast. But if Dave has to be cautious, especially with his AOs ruffled a bit, then there's a chance.




Yaab -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 3:31:45 PM)

Uhm, captain Sherman with his Lex lady moving south.... Hope he will not be marching through Georgia...[8|]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 3:35:58 PM)

Ack!




Lokasenna -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/12/2018 3:39:07 PM)

His fuel situation overall will not be critical. Due to the game's code, the magic movement on turn 1 doesn't burn any more than regular fuel consumption for regular movement, and they start with full bunkers. So it's as if they topped off on the December 6/7. He can refuel at Truk, and I think there are even some small/slow AOs in the Marshalls if he was in truly dire straits (but he's not yet).

If he went full speed last turn, his destroyers probably need a drink. Japan doesn't have any DDs with more than 6100 Endurance at game start, and I don't know if any of those start in KB.

Heading for the small islands to the SW is a good plan, I think. There are no fires to put out, and you can wait out the KB unless he guesses correctly that you disbanded at an island instead of sailing onwards for a port. He's already seen you do one full speed run - if your ships suddenly disappear from the scope in front of him he might conclude that you punched the afterburners again.

It's also possible that, with DL 3/8, he doesn't see the Lex there at all. He might think it is one of the other TFs that was around on the previous day, if he spotted any of those at any point.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/13/2018 2:32:32 PM)

Dave's turn has arrived at 4 a.m. eastern time each of the past three days. With Lexington's fate to be determined as by the fall of a feather, guess what time I got up this morning?

Thus far, no turn from Dave.

What does that say about the entertainment quality of this 9-year-old (or 13-year-old) game?




RangerJoe -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/13/2018 7:13:01 PM)

I just started reading this, good luck. I hope that you don't mind some advice from a novice player.

But bad luck with the Lady Lex. A suggestion if you do get her in a small port, fly in Naval Support squads to help pump out the excess water and help with some quick repairs. If you know what base she will be able to go to, put in a minefield there right away to help protect her. If want to, consider resizing the Marine air units on board to size "1" so if she is lost, they will be a lot cheaper to replace.

For your "81" experience pilots, if you have the dedicated training squadrons then put them in there. Otherwise, put ONE such pilot in a squadron that is training pilots and the trainees will improve a lot faster. If you have the extra airframe squadrons that you can buy out for PPs, pilots train there a lot faster as well but they may have only a high 30 exp but a 70 skill. With an experienced pilot there, they will also gain experience faster.

A suggestion for your Chinese units, stockpile all devices but let the Chinese units take replacements so they will gain support squads. Set Lashio to stockpile supplies, increase the supply request and maybe move an HQ in to increase the supply demand. Without the HQ there, you can easily get 6,000 supply at Lashio. Set Paoshan to stockpile supplies so it won't lose any to Lashio. Once Chinese units get to Lashio, they will have plenty to eat. Once Mandalay is lost, then quit the stockpile at Lashio and have Paoshan increase the supply request but stockpile supplies at Tsuyung so the supplies won't come from there. Once the Lashio supplies get to Paoshan, the unstockpile supplies at both Chinese bases. Overall it may not be much compared to what is needed in China, but every bit helps and it is the equivalent to a lot of transport aircraft loads.

Buy out the Commonwealth units cheap before you set them to take replacements, especially the ones that you otherwise would lose. If you get enough Chinese units to eat Indian cuisine, then you should not have to buy out American units to send to India - other than maybe some air power.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/13/2018 7:19:14 PM)

Advice from a "novice player"?

Novice?

You sound 98% more informed than I am.

Thanks, Ranger Joe. Lots of good stuff there.




RangerJoe -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/13/2018 8:50:03 PM)

Yes, I am a novice. Some of my questions, comments and suggestions still reflect that. But I have read a few AARs and I use what I have learned against the computer. The computer gives up in 1943 so I have not enjoyed an end game yet. I have yet to play against a human opponent, experienced or otherwise. I have not played Uncommon Valor, nor WITP and I only started playing WITP-AE shortly after I joined the forum. However, since I was in a nursing home at the time, then an assisted living facility, am not working nor married (not even a cat! [:@]) I did and still do have lots of time to play. I did play PACWAR when it was still fresh. [:D]

Another thought for the weak Commonwealth units that someone with more experience may know if this will work. Disband them (and have them come back) before you buy them out and while they are still inexperienced so you get the devices for other units that need them and when they come back, you can buy them really cheap. I do not know if they come back with more experience or not but having units with 5 experience and morale will not help in the front lines. Someone else might know if the will come back with more experience.

If you can get a lot of units out of China, it may pay to bug out of Burma before you have to just so you can save more of the units - even if you use them for garrison purposes. The Chinese units along the India/Burma border in good defensive terrain with Commonwealth support units with be tough for the Japanese at the end of their supply lines.

Maybe next time you have unCAPed loaded tankers/AOs, set your fighters to Naval Attack at 100 feet. Ma Deuce rounds with start the fuel burning. Then the crew can roast marshmallows. In fact, I read where someone attacked the Luzon invasion with P-40s at 100 feet. They did a lot of damage. Maybe just the P-40Es since they also carry bombs with the P-40B (a better dogfighter but no bombs) at 20k for top cover. Just read about Captain Henry Talmage "Hammerin' Hank" Elrod:

quote:

For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while attached to the Marine Fighting Squadron TWO HUNDRED ELEVEN, during action against enemy Japanese land, surface and aerial units at Wake Island, from 8 to 23 December 1941. Engaging vastly superior forces of enemy bombers and warships on 9 and 12 December, Captain Elrod shot down two of a flight of twenty-two hostile planes and, executing repeated bombing and strafing runs at extremely low altitude and close range, succeeded in inflecting deadly damage upon a large Japanese vessel, thereby sinking the first major warship to be destroyed by small caliber bombs delivered from a fighter-type aircraft. . .


http://www.marinemedals.com/elrodhenry.htm

As far as bombing the Miri oilfields with B-17s, the Americans did bomb oilfields in the DEI area. Sometimes they managed to put 3 B-17s in a strike package.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/14/2018 4:04:49 AM)

Joe, yer about two levels ahead of me. Thanks for the info.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/14/2018 4:08:28 AM)

No turn from Dave today. I didn't hear from him.

A particularly bad time for pacificus interruptus. There I was, all lathered up and waiting for my true love to call. Breathless with anticipation, I stayed by the phone all day, alternately pacing nervously or looking at the phone longingly. But my true love never called...never fulfilled the expectations I had for an exciting day. I go to bed now with unrequitted love. My true love turned her heaving bosom from my bashful gaze and concealed herself in mysterious shadows.




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