RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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Lokasenna -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 6:12:35 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You don't have device pools to rebuild the Chinese army by mid-1942. They also take a couple of months to get to India. If Japan notices the bug-out they can pretty easily cut the RRs with tanks and paras. Ask Lokasenna how.


Having tried to do it a second time... I don't know that I would classify this as easy, at least on the planning side. If you can get all of the pieces in place, then the execution is relatively easy. But it does require good timing, and at the start it's a race to get sufficient paratroops in place (and tanks breaking through in the right areas) vs. how fast can the Chinese move sufficient troops to kill 2 days' worth of paratroopers (1st day that shocks the Chinese in para-attack, 2nd day if the drop continues).

I will say that, even in scenario 2, in order to take China in any reasonable amount of time, that it does require devoting significant LCUs that don't come from Manchuria. I can't imagine doing it without the Guards Tank or the additional Guards Divisions that spawn in Indochina, for example. That has huge opportunity costs - the Guards Tank alone arrives in May 1942 and could be heading for India, Australia, Alaska, Ceylon, etc...

Edit - further, if all replacements are turned off for Chinese units except for those units that reach Western China and then India, you will have plenty of rifle squads. And obviously, you also have plenty of Support as that pool is global.




pontiouspilot -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 9:58:38 PM)

I will be watching and reading with great interest...as with your other AAR. Thank you for the time and effort invested in these AARs; I know many appreciate it.

Cheers




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:16:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think the resources differences are that heavy.



I remembered a big deal being made of the petroleum when the game was new, so I went and looked.

12/8/41 in both cases.

Scenario 1 Oil: 3,223,861
Scenario 2 Oil: 4,823,621

Scenario 1 Fuel: 4,484,971
Scenario 2 Fuel: 6,525,272

Japan players will have to say how much of a breathing space those #2 numbers provide, but they look pretty different to me.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:49:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I really think you would like Georges' very helpful APP for sorting Signet and record keeping...........


Is George Witpqs? Are you talking about InfoMonkey? (P.S. - I'm not sure what an APP is, but I think it's handheld device slang for a computer program, no?)

Thanks for the tip, Zulu. If I feel bold, intrepid, and lucky, I'll take another look at InfoMonkey.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:50:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Good to see you found a game Dan. I'll look forward to seeing how th planning in this one goes.

One thing I'd advocate is a strong early challenge in the DEI. Especially if your opponent spends a lot of resources (and keeps the KB) in the Pacific. A lot of the cruisers and the CVs can get to the Dei quickly.

The danger in Scen 2 is the follow on from the DEI before the amphibious bonus runs out. Japan gets more planes, deeper pools, and a few more troops, so can steamroll quickly without a few surprises coming their way.

Good luck!



Thanks, Erik. If you're reading, that's good news for me.

I already miss 1945!

The DEI does seem like the best theater in which to engage Japan.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:51:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ushakov

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
12/7/45

Congrats on the fastest game yet played - flipping all those turns must have kept you both very busy today!



A case of wishful thinking. 1945 sure is fun for the Allies. Busy, challenging and the ultimate clickfest, but a lot of fun.




BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:52:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I really think you would like Georges' very helpful APP for sorting Signet and record keeping...........


Is George Witpqs? Are you talking about InfoMonkey? (P.S. - I'm not sure what an APP is, but I think it's handheld device slang for a computer program, no?)

Thanks for the tip, Zulu. If I feel bold, intrepid, and lucky, I'll take another look at InfoMonkey.

Close- it's IntelMonkey. And witpqs' first name is George. So if you're quoting him, just say "By George ..." at the start of your quote. [8|]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:55:45 PM)

12/8/41

South China Sea: The Japanese are overwhelming (mostly) at the start of the war, but in some ways it's difficult for the IJ player. His massive opening OOB is spread out and has a lot of ground to cover...ground that includes embedded Allied combat ships and aircraft. So the Allied player gets a few weeks to have a lot of fun before the curtain (usually) comes down for months or years or forever.

On the second day of the war, three Allied combat TFs sorites - the Hong Kong DDs toward Formosa, a small RN TF from Singers towards Singkawang, and the four old USN DDs from Manila to Brunei. These runs were at full speed and met with varying degress of misfortune and success.

The four Manila-based DDs were the stars of the show:


[image]local://upfiles/8143/61FF126CCEB6485DAC46B89F4877B7B3.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 10:58:05 PM)

So, as of the opening days of the war, USS Arizona is the largest ship sunk...but Japanese vessels are the second (the AV) and third (a PB) largest sunk.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 11:00:50 PM)

12/1/41

South CHina Sea: The Hong Kong RN DDs ran into mines at Takao, with two of the DDs suffering one hit each. The third, Thracian, managed to put a scare into a transport TF near Laog, Philippines.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/37DC0034F87E4559B1DBD3241F05F339.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 11:06:14 PM)

12/1/41

Philippine Sea: Mini KB is near Mindanao. IJN strike aircraft sortie, sinking a bunch of fleeing xAKLs and the like, probably expending alot of sorties in a frustrating way.

Those with incredible memories will recall my opening moves in previous games tended to be to send single TFs in every direction, even including towards New Guinea, Midway and Alaska. It was wild, it was fun, it was somewhat successful, and it made for a rip-roring ride as the Japanese player reacted.

In this case, I decided to send alot of the Manila contingent due south. Whenever possible - especially with larger vessels and those capable of higher speeds - I set them at flank speed. And then I kept a bunchof ships in port, so that the flight would be staggered.

THe hope is that enemy carriers would expend alot of sorties early, creating some space for others. We'll see if it works, but it largely did on day two.

CA Houston and CL Boise are making their way south into the Makassar Strait. THe four old USN DDs will probe south from Brunei (they have 63% ammo, no torps), trying for another intercept at Miri.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/C73A554C99974EBF8A3DCCB48F4C92C4.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 11:12:30 PM)

12/8/41

SEAC: The vortex, as is usual in the opening days of our contests.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/53094888D8DF48A7B028F341D73D71C7.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 11:25:16 PM)

12/8/41

CenPac: None of the USN combat TFs managed to intercept KB, but Dave had a bunch of his subs posted where KB had been. Crafty.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B7A5DE376A334C0996D552FFBB525EE9.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/9/2018 11:35:07 PM)

12/8/41

SigInt: Little stuff.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/4F07A9DA0425460DB9EA3AAA91DA13D1.jpg[/image]




FlyByKnight -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 1:55:36 AM)

Your last AAR was an amazing tale. I'll keep an eye on this one.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 2:23:44 AM)

Thank you, Charlie. I'm glad you'll keep an I on this one. :)




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 2:25:41 AM)

Success! I did a Google search and found a link to a site by one "George" for an "IntelMonkey." The site says, simply download.

Since I am adept at downloading things, I feel a blush of excitement. So I cast around the site for a button or link of any kind that says or suggests in the slightest way "Download." There's nothing of that sort anywhere on the site, as best I can tell.

Why are computers like that? Why must they mystify and bedevil those of us who wish to lead simple lives?




Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 2:30:17 AM)

HERE YOU GO

p.s. at the bottom there's an arrow facing down on the right, to the right of the file name, size, etc. at the bottom




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 2:33:46 AM)

Thanks! I found it. I downloaded it. I began reading the simple instructions. I now have a headache and a heartfelt desire to turn the computer off and never turn it on again. So many of the terms are "greek" to me. It's like reading instructions about how to install a new sink when you have no idea what a "wrench," "cut-off valve" and "right and left" are.




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 2:35:15 AM)

I'm going turn off the computer. I'm going to read a book about symbiosis among epiphytes, saprophytes and parasites. Something simple, so that I can relax and get my brain working again.




Lokasenna -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 8:00:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks! I found it. I downloaded it. I began reading the simple instructions. I now have a headache and a heartfelt desire to turn the computer off and never turn it on again. So many of the terms are "greek" to me. It's like reading instructions about how to install a new sink when you have no idea what a "wrench," "cut-off valve" and "right and left" are.


IntelMonkey is definitely uh.... not super non-programmer friendly to install. Great program otherwise, though.




Mike Solli -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 11:54:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think the resources differences are that heavy.



I remembered a big deal being made of the petroleum when the game was new, so I went and looked.

12/8/41 in both cases.

Scenario 1 Oil: 3,223,861
Scenario 2 Oil: 4,823,621

Scenario 1 Fuel: 4,484,971
Scenario 2 Fuel: 6,525,272

Japan players will have to say how much of a breathing space those #2 numbers provide, but they look pretty different to me.


That's huge! But, in my opinion, the supply is the important thing to look at. Anyone have those numbers handy?




Mike Solli -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 12:04:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/8/41

SEAC: The vortex, as is usual in the opening days of our contests.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/53094888D8DF48A7B028F341D73D71C7.jpg[/image]


Not sure if the 50% damage comment is entirely accurate. Miri (oil and refinery) and Brunei (oil) start with everything at 50% damage. If you mean 50% of how it started then yes, that's accurate. The oil and refinery at Miri both begin at 150(150).




GetAssista -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 1:17:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
That's huge! But, in my opinion, the supply is the important thing to look at. Anyone have those numbers handy?

Scenario #2 gives you additional +460 HI, +360 LI, +900 Refineries (although those are not really a bottleneck)
[image]local://upfiles/32892/7A0CAD76DC254C72BC340478DC9EB0CB.jpg[/image]


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
If you move the goalposts to "evacuate those Chinese LCUs close to the western border" then yeah, it's hard for Japan to stop them.

Aww, man, really? I never ever do these kind of things. And appreciate people actually reading what I wrote.
Sorry that you got caught strat moving. You should've marched out of Changsha through the northern hard roads instead.
quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
...Note that I assume only the nearest Chinese running away (up to Changsha-Ichang cluster), others would fight.

quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
...With half Chinese army running away to feast in India while other half performs the usual holding action who cares about Chungking reviving. Chinese squads will be produced anyway




GetAssista -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 1:20:58 PM)

double Oopst..




crsutton -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 3:19:22 PM)

Hey Dan, Have not been around much lately but wanted to share this with you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHDfC-z9YaE

As for this scenario, I played the Allies in a full campaign with Viberpol and can say a few things.
The Japanese real power in this scen. is "front loaded." That is to say that the force against you in 1942 is really overwhelming. Japan has the supply and oil to ramp up production much faster and as I recall some nasty aircraft come on line fast and plenty. The extra four division are there at the start which creates a great imbalance vs your already overtaxed land forces. Basically, unless he makes a big boo boo (unlikely) then he is going to be really powerful til mid 1943.

As for the extra ships, the Shinano comes on as a much better Taiho class CV for some reason, and there are more DDs and PC but it is not the ships but the air power that is painful. Not the end of the world though. A good Allied player can adjust and win. And, if not careful it is very easy for the Japanese player to burn up all of his resources too fast. I think the "pilot penalty" was never removed from this scenario and it can catch the Japanese player unaware.

You know my Allies golden rule. Don't screw up and lose your carriers early and you will win the game. Have fun.




crsutton -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 3:21:20 PM)

As i recall the last patch affects this game as well. Your AA is strong and your subs will not get toasted by the super E class boats like they did in the early days.




Lokasenna -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 3:41:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think the resources differences are that heavy.



I remembered a big deal being made of the petroleum when the game was new, so I went and looked.

12/8/41 in both cases.

Scenario 1 Oil: 3,223,861
Scenario 2 Oil: 4,823,621

Scenario 1 Fuel: 4,484,971
Scenario 2 Fuel: 6,525,272

Japan players will have to say how much of a breathing space those #2 numbers provide, but they look pretty different to me.


That's huge! But, in my opinion, the supply is the important thing to look at. Anyone have those numbers handy?


That is a much larger difference than I thought. I thought it was on the order of about 1/3 of that. Some of that increase is eaten up by the increased cost of ships sailing around (slightly more industry to feed = more xAK trips; more DDs and useful Shinano = more fuel spent) so it's not all going into industry and supply generation but the vast bulk would be.

Per Mike's inquiry, I'm not sure on the supplies. I know CRB and Truk have some stockpiles of supply that aren't there in scenario 1, but I don't know what the global total difference is. I haven't noticed anything major other than those 2 bases having some more at the start (about 200k?), which leads me to speculate that if there is also substantially increased supply (which really wouldn't be necessary as Japan starts with a few million anyway) it could just be in Japan.




Grollub -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/10/2018 8:00:31 PM)

Good to see you start a new AAR!

Interesting plan that you stated in the picture (attached). In one of my PBEM games, I sent Lex/Ent westwards from day one under total EMCON, sneaked into the Philippines Sea from the east between Iwo Jima and Pagan.

Coming from the east, I managed to surprise the Mini-KB in the Celebes Sea, sinking the Ryujo and severly damaging a CA. Since the plan went well, I bought myself much needed time in the DEI being the "king of the hill" in the area for some time before the KB could intervene.

But ... it's a risky move, and if you do this you have to;

1/ Plan on what to do in case you're detected and thus have "bug out" plans for escaping either northwards towards the Aluetians or S/SW towards NE Australia.

2/ Get together some high-fuel transports and/or the low capacity dutch AOs to refuel the CV TF as "far forward" as possible. The CVTF will be very low on fuel coming into the area. You will not have enough fuel to make any full speed sprints or sailing around too much.

Good luck with the game!

[image]local://upfiles/18375/4C2A752B060540F4B8A0CF13C0881914.jpg[/image]




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/11/2018 2:17:56 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
.
Not sure if the 50% damage comment is entirely accurate. Miri (oil and refinery) and Brunei (oil) start with everything at 50% damage. If you mean 50% of how it started then yes, that's accurate. The oil and refinery at Miri both begin at 150(150).


Thanks, Mike. Then no damage was done, because boht are 150(150).

Question for the Peanut Gallery: On 12/9/41, B-17Ds from Mindanao targeted Miri's oil, scoring about 12 hits that knocked oil down by about 13 points.

Is there any reason for an Allied player to avoid or minimize these kinds of raid? Any kind of well-reasoned analysis that it shouldn't be done, because it puts too much pressure on Japan early?

I know Obvert (Erik) pursued this campaign heavily in his game with Lowpe. Erik sets an impeccable standard of sportsmanship, so I'm assuming that there's no doubt about the tactic (early targeting of industry in the DEI).

My general rule of thumb for "gaminess" is: (1) could it have been done in the real war, and (2) is there a reasonable counter? If the answer is "yes" to either, then its probably a legit tactic. I think the answer to both questions is "yes."

Contrary to the claims of one Forumite who veers into the hysterical, from time to time, I am open to discussion and input. As long as the discourse is polite and doesn't veer into Social Media namecalling or frothing.






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