RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (Full Version)

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guanotwozero -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 12:15:16 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

It's possible, actually very likely, that 100+ missiles were fired with the expectation that the Russian S-400, and other newer systems would be involved. Therefore, the abundance of ordinance guaranteed that it exceeded the saturation level. When the Russian systems didn't come into play, the ordinance was simply overkill.

So, why didn't the Russian equipment actually come into play?

1.) The Russians could see that the amount of ordinance was going to exceed what they had to defend the targets, and they didn't want it to appear that despite the presence of Russian-made equipment, the targets still got hit--resulting in a propaganda loss.

2.) The Russians weren't in actual position (logistically or geographically) to attempt to hit the incoming missiles.

3.) In an effort to avoid any escalation, the Russians elected not to defend the Syrian targets.

4.) By allowing the targets to be hit, the Syrians/Russians could play the "victim card" and call out the attackers as the "aggressors."

5.) A behind-the-scenes deal was struck by the US and Russia for the Allies to conduct a limited "retaliatory" response against Syria with the understanding that the targeted attacks would not expand beyond these specifically designed areas. The Allies could then claim victory on the battlefield, while Syria and Russia can claim victory in the arena of public opinion.

Just some thoughts.

Doug

I reckon 3) is the most significant with 1) as a factor. Others not included in the decision, but 4) will be used retrospectively for all it's worth.




SunlitZelkova -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 12:32:31 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: strykerpsg


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowlaner2012

100 tomahawks fired, I wander how many got shot down....

These are messed up times, does anybody have any ideas or hunches on how Russia will respond? Maybe a strike on USS Donald cook???

If yess we would be on the way to WW3.... scary!!!!


Nothing scary about suppressing a dictator that defies world views and law regarding chemical warfare. JASSMs were also used, launched from B-1's, and were most likely the stealth piece allowing the less stealth Tomahawks afterwards.

I highly doubt Russia would be so bold as to target an actual warship because it's then "Game On" to the next level. I would suspect that since we have conducted an Allied strike involving France and UK, that Russia will need to decide if vilifying 3 EU and 3 voting members of the UN would not bode well for them in the future. Though China has stated support of Russia should anything happen to NK, not so sure they would back them in attacking 3 powers armed with nuclear weapons and robust expeditionary forces. Not to mention, the economic impact of Russia and/or China doing anything against the 3. It was a precision strike, purposely avoiding Russian forces.


To be fair, this is more a sphere of influence struggle rather than anything actually related to "human rights". Russia and the US are both guilty of funding regimes that bomb civilians (Syria and Saudi Arabia, respectively).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

quote:

Are we should take all Pentagons claims with a HUGE grain of salt?


Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon. And the Pentagon is subject to judicial and public scrutiny - I've got no doubt about who to believe. However the dust has not yet settled, we probably need to quell our quest for instant BDA and accurate information and give it a couple days to settle down. It's not COMANO with God's Eye enabled.


It is not good to trust the Pentagon just "because democracy". I would take both sides claims with a grain of salt. A very large grain of salt.

Also, the "Russian boogieman" stereotype is dated. The USSR doesn't exist anymore, and while there are certainly alot of domestic issues, at the very least, Russia is does not have this evil plan to take over Europe or the world. Information from that country shouldn't be considered invalid "because its Russia".

A good example of why not to immediately trust government/military reports is North Korean executions. Several of them have been wrong, including the infamous "man executed with AA gun", but no articles or stories have been published by the media rectifying their mistake.

The Pentagon also believes that North Korea, armed with a small nuclear arsenal, primitive delivery systems, and a military consisting of decaying 30 year old equipment is somehow a threat to both the US and her allies, despite the US alone having the largest defence budget in the world...

I will personally wait until this entire war ends before considering any reports as fact. Despite what I said above, both sides have a motive to shape the information. It is unlikely the truth will be known for some time.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

True. Of course, IRL the military is trying to make it as lopsided and boring as possible. No one planning anything wants excitement!

But I agree, taking out 3 campuses with 110 tomahawks and JASSM-ERs isnít a whole
Lot of fun to game


I don't know man, not only does this sound like an interesting scenario, a scenario involving H-6s bombing the Yellow River would also be pretty cool!




mikeCK -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 12:48:16 AM)

Edit




mikeCK -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 12:57:33 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Filitch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
Not sure why I should apologize for stating that the Russians are following their doctrine:

What mean this bulk of links?
US are much more "masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon", but here we are discussing military and technical question, but nobody fantasy about Russian bear or American foozle.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
So I won't

I don't ask you opinion. You must.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment

Looks like you don't know real situation with Syrian AD and its equipment.


Actually, I know what has been put out there by Russia. They have a mix
Of old SA-2s, Sa-5s SA-6s and a few Panstirs . Didnít matter because none of them hit a darn thing except the ground when they ran out of gas




mikeCK -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 1:06:32 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zaslon


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

If you think a Russian general in Moscow has the same credibility as to accuracy of a strike conducted by the United States As a US PENTAGON spokesman then I donít see how we can have a conversation. Especially considering he claimed that nothing was damaged and 70% of the missiles were shot down

Anyway, anyone here anything new about the JASSM performance in particular?

You did not wrote any reason. Why a US pentagon spokesman has more credibility than a Russian spokesman?
It is not reasonable. And you do not want have a conversation because you know that your position is not reasonable.
We are not supporting a team in a match, that's not the Superbowl, that's real life. People die every day in Syria.

I do not have proofs in any direction. I only have 2 statements about the same event. And I do not have any posibility to discover who is telling the true and Who is liying...Or maybe why not? both are lying. Maybe the true is between both versions of the event.

Some of you are trying to think....That's good. But pals. you are cheating. [:D] You have your pre-established ideas and from this conclusions your are building the evidences to support it (its the reverse order)....Yeah. Now some of you are using some fake statements of the russian spokesman...And Do you think that if the russian spokesman lie, the US Spokesman is telling the true? That's ridiculous [:D]
Normally we must prove true facts. False claims only serves to discard them, that's not bad, but it's not enough to know the true.




Because 6 hours after the attack the Russian general seemed to know exactly how many weapons were fired at which target...which he doesnít.
He listed several different places that were never targeted. He also stated that nothing was damaged. All 3 were destroyed. So clearlY he is full of crap. So yeah, i donít believe him. He just threw up a bunch of impossible numbers about targets we never attacked

Kind of like a year or so ago when the Russians tried to convince the world that their SU-24 was not shot down by a Turkish F-16 and was brought down by a SAM. They didnít WANT to have the plane shot down by a Turk in a US plane.

If you believe the Russian military official that 70 missiles were brought down and no targets hit then go ahead.




mikeCK -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 2:54:51 AM)

satellite images and on the ground footage of the buildings that, according to the Russian military officials, were undamaged by the US missiles

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XydrzyYtuq8




Dysta -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 5:22:02 AM)

An irony that the more informational world we are living in, the more likeiness of misinformations.

My mind is mangled after I reading numerous reports just after a day of ally air strike, I have difficulty to analyze just as much as analyzing Chinese military arsenals.




Zaslon -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 10:08:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Because 6 hours after the attack the Russian general seemed to know exactly how many weapons were fired at which target...which he doesnít.
He listed several different places that were never targeted. He also stated that nothing was damaged. All 3 were destroyed. So clearlY he is full of crap. So yeah, i donít believe him. He just threw up a bunch of impossible numbers about targets we never attacked


Yeah, of course he is full of crap. he want to sell more SAMs to other countries.
You wrote some interesting points.
He listed several different places that were never targeted. How we know that? There a possibility that all missiles targeted to one objective were shot down. It is impossible? nopes. Its true? we do not know. How you can know that it's not a possibility?

He also stated that nothing was damaged. All 3 were destroyed.Well again, putting words in the russian spokesman (General Sergey Rudskoy ) which he never said. I quoted him "In total 30 missiles targeted facilities near Barzah and Jaramana. Seven of them have been shot down. These facilities allegedly relating to the so-called ďDamascus military chemical programmeĒ were partially destructed"
Probably another lie. Its false the claim that he said that nothing was damaged. He said also that other targets were damaged.

You and others are writing a lot about the russian lies... it doesn't make sense. If one version is fake it doesn't mean that automatically the other is true. Nobody tell the true in a War. The Russian spokesman man lie. We know that.
It is better try to prove real facts. But in this case we cannot! We won't know the truth. That's sad but that's real life, not a movie.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
If you believe the Russian military official that 70 missiles were brought down and no targets hit then go ahead.


Yeah, That's the problem. Its not a matter of Believe....What we are, believers? That's not a religion that's not Ufology of some kind on pseudo-science. [:D]
I am very suspicious. We know that Kremlin lie in the past (a lot). And We know that White House lie in the past (a lot too). So without credible proofs both statements have the same credibility (close to zero) for me.
I told you...so what's the problem.Life is not black or white. US or USSR. You must understand that we won't know the true. When you understand it, you could stop to manipulate reality to shape to your own ideas (I can think that the Earth is flat and you know there are people which believe that...You see? believe!. Because they don't believe that our Planet is a geoid.




Zaslon -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 10:27:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Actually, I know what has been put out there by Russia. They have a mix
Of old SA-2s, Sa-5s SA-6s and a few Panstirs . Didnít matter because none of them hit a darn thing except the ground when they ran out of gas


Nopes, you do not know. You are manipulating your own reality to support your pre-established ideas.
Syrian AD have deployed what they have, not what do you think they have. That's a huge difference.

They couldn't shot down western cruise missiles-> why? ->because they use old SAM systems.
What's happen when reality appears and they have some modern systems? You need to find another reason to support your pre-established idea "They couldn't shot down western cruise missiles"

As Jane's, SIPRI and Russian Rosoboronexport listed, they have more than a few Pantsir S1 systems (36-40 systems). They have 18 Buk M2E systems, They have 12 Pechora 2M systems. Enough for shot down 71 cruise missiles? Probably not. But they can shot down some. How many? We never know the exact number.





Sharana -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 10:33:39 AM)

So far everyone is telling bullshit yeah. I hope private companies will make post some sat. image shedding some light on what happened with quite a lot of the cruise missiles. I'm sorry, but that doesn't look like it's hit with 76 cruise missiles and 34 tones of explosives (76 cruise missiles with 450kg warheads)...
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DaywgTpXkAA0arF.jpg[/img]
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da1IEN4WsAEsmBK.jpg[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/fs2aqNG.jpg[/img]

It's maximum 5-7 missiles on the video and even that might be too much - look at the trucks on the image to get some scale.

The russians press conference was full of bullshit also. First they say the french Rafales didn't launch cruise missiles, then they somehow see B-1B dropping JDAMs instead of JASSM-ER, saw some F-15Es using air to ground missiles and finally according to them 2 out of the 3 official targets were not even targeted. Even more all SCALP missiles were shot down, yet the targets near Homs are somehow destroyed ... magic I guess :D
As bonus they claim the cruise missiles were coming over period of 90 minutes. Like the Pentagon planners have no clue what ToT is and how it's better not to bring the missiles 1 by 1 over period of 90 minutes...




ultradave -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 12:02:30 PM)

More US-Russia conflict here than over the skies of Syria the other night. And here I'm all out of popcorn.





SeaQueen -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 2:49:36 PM)

You'd probably have to take a lot of literary license to make an exciting scenario out of the raid. The whole coordinated cruise missile strike thing is interesting from a planning perspective (lots of noodling with spreadsheets in order to get things to arrive on time) but at first glance it looks like a pretty boring scenario. Once you're done sequencing things, it's mostly hands-off. You shoot the missiles and what happens afterwards requires little or no interaction.

There were few if any penetrating strike aircraft involved. Whatever ASW problem there was seems to have been minimal. There seems to have been little attempt to roll back the air defenses. The Russian fleet had lots of missiles but they mostly sat on their hands. The bombers fired their cruise missiles from well outside of the range of SAMs or fighters.

Rather than attempting to directly represent what happened on the news, or coming up with some kind of contrived way for the Russians to be "accidentally" provoked to respond violently, it'd probably be more fun to try to represent a more elaborate strike on more heavily defended chemical weapons related facilities, and instead of having the Russians mostly sit on their hands, have them actively participating in the defense of the Syrian facilities. You could also make it into two scenarios just by changing postures. In one the Russians could regard the allied strike as "unfriendly" or "neutral" and in the other they could regard them as "hostile." In both the Syrians would regard the allied strike as "hostile."


quote:

ORIGINAL: leemiller24

Does anyone have any good scenarios or know of any that are leading up to the current issue in Syria? With the deployment of US cruise missile capable boats in the area and the deployment of another CVN (possibly one already there) there are a lot of potential for things to go sideways.

Just a thought.. any scenarios would be nice-- thanks!





ultradave -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 3:33:33 PM)

The coordinated strike, as is, would be a tutorial for use of an advanced mission planner. :-)




ExNusquam -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 11:27:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SeaQueen
Rather than attempting to directly represent what happened on the news, or coming up with some kind of contrived way for the Russians to be "accidentally" provoked to respond violently, it'd probably be more fun to try to represent a more elaborate strike on more heavily defended chemical weapons related facilities, and instead of having the Russians mostly sit on their hands, have them actively participating in the defense of the Syrian facilities. You could also make it into two scenarios just by changing postures. In one the Russians could regard the allied strike as "unfriendly" or "neutral" and in the other they could regard them as "hostile." In both the Syrians would regard the allied strike as "hostile."


To tack onto that, you can play with variable unit proficiency and doctrine. How does the result change if the Syrian SAMs are radiating local radars, or relying on the EW network to pass contacts? How much of an effect does changing unit proficiency from Recruit to Regular have?




SunlitZelkova -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/15/2018 11:39:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ultradave

More US-Russia conflict here than over the skies of Syria the other night. And here I'm all out of popcorn.




I suppose political conflicts are inevitable when the game we are discussing happens to be based around some of the most tense and controversial conflicts in modern history.




mikeCK -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 5:12:50 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zaslon


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Actually, I know what has been put out there by Russia. They have a mix
Of old SA-2s, Sa-5s SA-6s and a few Panstirs . Didnít matter because none of them hit a darn thing except the ground when they ran out of gas


Nopes, you do not know. You are manipulating your own reality to support your pre-established ideas.
Syrian AD have deployed what they have, not what do you think they have. That's a huge difference.

They couldn't shot down western cruise missiles-> why? ->because they use old SAM systems.
What's happen when reality appears and they have some modern systems? You need to find another reason to support your pre-established idea "They couldn't shot down western cruise missiles"

As Jane's, SIPRI and Russian Rosoboronexport listed, they have more than a few Pantsir S1 systems (36-40 systems). They have 18 Buk M2E systems, They have 12 Pechora 2M systems. Enough for shot down 71 cruise missiles? Probably not. But they can shot down some. How many? We never know the exact number.




Well, we do know the exact number: zero.
And I love the damage assessment experts explaining that a picture clearly shows damage from5-7 missiles
But not 20-30. How can you know? If you think one or two missiles is going to level a huge concrete reinforced structure then no.
Believe what makes you feel better. If there had been tomahawks shot down all
Over Syria, then the Russians and Syrians would be posting the video of idiots jumping on the debris as usuals.
But nothing. No wreckage.

Honestly, if 13 tomahawks would have been downed they would have said so if for no other reason than it meant 85% hot through...Hardly an embarrassing number one would want to hide.

But man..70 tomahawks shot down. There must be tons of tomahawk missiles
And debris all over the country. Surely they could find ONE piece




Hongjian -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 9:24:07 AM)

Could anyone ID these parts? I know they say "WING" and "REAR COVER", but still it would be nice for anyone to point out whether these parts are likely to be in such conditions after either impacting onto their targets or having been intercepted. Also, what type of missile might this be? MBDA France would indicate Storm Shadow. Which would be big if true.

As for now, I would lean towards the "intercepted" option, as missile-parts scattered after hitting their targets would have been many times more damaged and unidentifiable than these.

[image]http://i67.tinypic.com/xo13ps.jpg[/image]
[image]http://i64.tinypic.com/3492yck.jpg[/image]
[image]http://i67.tinypic.com/2w3dfyq.jpg[/image]




.Sirius -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 11:53:18 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ultradave

More US-Russia conflict here than over the skies of Syria the other night. And here I'm all out of popcorn.



Heh agree there, seems to be alot of Arm Chair Generals around outa pop corn here too :)




leemiller24 -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 1:40:43 PM)

[:D] That's hilarious!




Sniper31 -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 5:06:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: .Sirius


quote:

ORIGINAL: ultradave

More US-Russia conflict here than over the skies of Syria the other night. And here I'm all out of popcorn.



Heh agree there, seems to be alot of Arm Chair Generals around outa pop corn here too :)



Well said.

Wait a minute, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night, arenít I qualified to judge cruise missle strikes now? I also read about them on Wikipedia ;)




TyphoonFr -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 5:16:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hongjian

Could anyone ID these parts? I know they say "WING" and "REAR COVER", but still it would be nice for anyone to point out whether these parts are likely to be in such conditions after either impacting onto their targets or having been intercepted. Also, what type of missile might this be? MBDA France would indicate Storm Shadow. Which would be big if true.

As for now, I would lean towards the "intercepted" option, as missile-parts scattered after hitting their targets would have been many times more damaged and unidentifiable than these.


With this rounded shape, it could be one of the 3 french naval cruise missiles MdCN fired from FREEM Aquitaine




stilesw -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 5:18:57 PM)

Wait,

I saw a bottle rocket once (see picture) so I must be imminently qualified to discourse on this also!

[image]local://upfiles/49187/51FBE409A22844BFA9B8480153640E7D.jpg[/image]




ExNusquam -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 8:59:51 PM)

Based on the Russian Military Statement, they tracked 103/105 and successfully engaged 71/103. They are reporting 112 total SAM launches instead of US DoD 40. Interestingly, most of the targets that were "successfully" defended had all inbound weapons intercepted. The exception is the "abandoned" Mezza airfield, where only 5/9 were intercepted...meaning there should be 4 impacts somewhere on-field. I've yet to see handheld of impacts, and I know both ISI and DG collected the airfield post-strike and I haven't seen any BDA products showing the damage.

I think the Russian attempt to make their numbers seem realistic revealed that they're just making this up and hoping people don't look to closely.




Rebel Yell -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/16/2018 10:00:38 PM)

[image]https://i.imgflip.com/12l52f.jpg[/image]




leemiller24 -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 1:34:53 AM)

So who is going to build a scenario on this now?




Dysta -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 5:01:43 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leemiller24

So who is going to build a scenario on this now?

T-Trout is making a test scenario of this event. It's a good idea to play it rather than arm-chairing nonsenses:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4467719




Bert Blitzkrieg -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 11:29:59 AM)

Can you tell where these pictures were taken? According to this article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/russia-claims-ally-syria-shot-71-103-missiles-launched-us-britain/ all the Storm Shadows were fired at the storae facility's.




Bert Blitzkrieg -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 11:42:28 AM)

BTW, kinda gullible/silly to think Russians only lie and US/NATO only speak the truth. In reality it will be somewhere in the middle. Both are creative with the facts/truth.
Moreover, any information from either Russia or the US is not meant to convince their counterparts. It is only menat for their own public: I know a few Russian people who immigrated from former Soviet Republics to the Netherlands and they are very reluctant to believe anything they hear from the US against Russia. They have a very different view on the US then people from the west.




Dysta -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 12:10:29 PM)

I think the famous quote "The first victim of war is truth." is still seasoning well. Dead men cannot talk, but survivors can lie.




thewood1 -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 1:28:10 PM)

Keep in mind though that the US press is not controlled by government. In the US, the background usually comes out. There is a balance of messages eventually. The press is generally antagonistic and will not be simple mouthpieces.




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