Today's Japanese R&D lesson (Full Version)

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Numdydar -> Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/6/2015 5:17:02 PM)

I created this thread as a jpg so to get all the screenshots together. So we will see if this works or not [:)] Ok did not work so plan B

Here is a R&D lesson for all JFB wanta be¡¦s ƒº
On 4/30/1944 I had two Oscar IIIa factories that were at 99% accelerated to May 1944 from June ¡¥44. So basically as soon as the turn ran to May 1st, these two factories would now be in production. All my Updg, Repair, and Prod were all set to ¡¥Yes¡¦ in the RD Air screen.
As shown below both the factories switched to production as we are under the ¡¥Air¡¦ factory screen. Notice that they are in Blue which means they are able to switch back to R&D factories.



[image]local://upfiles/10981/1A6AC52D1FC74FAF8DBA9993F115A58E.jpg[/image]




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/6/2015 5:21:33 PM)

In this screen shot, I selected one of the factories and already switched it back to R&D. Which just left the one shown below still in production. We are still in the ‘Air’ factory screen.



[image]local://upfiles/10981/B7304537D746435AA821C8C87FA84AB3.jpg[/image]




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/6/2015 5:22:35 PM)

Now we are in the ‘RD Air’ screen shown below. Both of the Oscar IIIa factories are now Oscar IV R&D factories and can now help accelerate these planes. Notice that the factories suffered NO damage since the Oscar IV is the next plane in the Oscar series upgrade line.

There was no need for me to do anything with the Updg, Repair, and Prod switches at all prior to the factories switching under the ‘RD Air’ screen prior to the factories converting. The way the game now works allowed me to get my acceleration on the Oscar IIIa’s a month earlier AND was able to use these factories to start accelerating the Oscar IV plane.
Just thought everyone would like to know how the game currently actually works in this regard versus old and outdated material.



[image]local://upfiles/10981/EF88624779CA4EA9963375F3829CEB7D.jpg[/image]




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/6/2015 7:45:55 PM)

Why don't you have R&D factories at 30? Would not it be be a bad example for the students? )
Also, with realistic R&D it is adviceable to set Prod flags to "No" on the factories you plan to switch to another R&D. Else on completing research they might switch to production factories by themselves and there will be no turning back. I fubar-ed my entire A6M research set like this once.




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/6/2015 10:05:30 PM)

That was the point of this thread. To point out you do not need to worry if R&D factories switch to production or not. As you can easily turn them back to R&D like my example shows.

Any R&D factories in blue mean they are about to become production factories in the next month like what happened with my Oscar IIIa's. So on the first turn of the month, see if you have any production factories in blue. If you do, again just switch them back like I did. Now if you are not paying attention ... That is a different issue [:D]




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/7/2015 4:04:09 PM)

quote:

Now if you are not paying attention ... That is a different issue
:D
That was exactly the issue :D So many things to pay attention to in this game..




Alpha77 -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/8/2015 10:11:24 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

Now if you are not paying attention ... That is a different issue
:D
That was exactly the issue :D So many things to pay attention to in this game..


Yup, and this method with using upgrade paths is the only realistic possibility to get planes really 2-3 months earlier..

Now you can eg. switch from Zero M3 to M3a to M5 in a single turn without facs further damages. [;)] In case of this one be careful, the M2 does NOT upgrade to M3 [:-]




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/8/2015 5:36:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77
Yup, and this method with using upgrade paths is the only realistic possibility to get planes really 2-3 months earlier..

How about 1+ year early! Not that hard if you are willing to expend supply and concentrate your R&D on a few models (mostly fighters).

Oh, and if R&D is not set to Realistic one can really run wild, along e.g. Oscar path




Alpha77 -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/8/2015 8:08:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

How about 1+ year early! Not that hard if you are willing to expend supply and concentrate your R&D on a few models (mostly fighters).



Yup if you set up 10 facs a 30 for a single model. I guess I have 5 or 6 each for most planes. The remainder to fill the space 1-3 for not so important ones...Got the Tojo1 2 weeks earlier already [:'(]

Has someone made the experiment already to only research the 46 jet fighter ? Would be interesting [;)]




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/8/2015 9:11:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77
Has someone made the experiment already to only research the 46 jet fighter ? Would be interesting [;)]

It would be vastly suboptimal because of no upgrade chain and the way R&D factories repair - slow when date is far away.
Like, what's the point of getting those factories repaired only in 1944? You could've used them for all the planes inbetween and still get them on Karyu later and not be very far behind




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/9/2015 1:57:20 PM)

Correct. The repair chance for any R&D factory for any plane 2+ years ahead of the game date is almost non-existent. Now if feel you have the resources as Japan to waste this way ... [:)]




Alpha77 -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 12:30:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Correct. The repair chance for any R&D factory for any plane 2+ years ahead of the game date is almost non-existent. Now if feel you have the resources as Japan to waste this way ... [:)]


Correct. But as a funny experiment, a dashing and experienced IJ player should do it.....[:D]




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 2:19:36 PM)

Uh no. [:)]

I am in May '44 and I started the game with 2 unrepaired Kikka R&D factories. Now this factory is at 1(1) after 2.5 years of play. Since the historical date for this plane is 1/46, I am now under the two year mark so I should see the other factory repair soon. At this point I could expand the factories with the reasonable expectation of then being fully repaired by the end of '44.

If I did that and the factories did repair, then at best, I could get the Kikka 3 months early, say Oct, '45. Whoopeee [:'(] But just because I get the plane early does not mean a whole lot since to get enough to actually fill out squadrons requires at least one month of production. Depending on the investment made in planes/engines for it. So now we are looking at Nov '45 to actually have a few squadrons ready to actually fly the things.

So basically a total waste of time for Japan's very limited resources to be used on. Which is why no one does acceleration with '45/46 plane types that are one offs. I.E. have no prior model to upgrade from like the Oscar, Zero, etc. lines.

And for those that say well if you had expanded the R&D factories at the beginning ... I actually did that with another model that had a date of 6/45. I made these factories 0(31) at the game's start. So far the factories are STILL 0(31) [:@]. Again in May '44 so only a year away from the historical date. So the Kikka's R&D factories are actually doing better thanks to RND chances [:)]

While AFBs think Japan's R&D system in the game is too powerful, you really need to understand its limitations on what it can do. PDU Off makes it even worse. For certain lines, Japan can leverage things (especially with PDU On) to get a very few types much earlier. But the vast majority of Japan's planes will appear a lot closer to historical dates than these few.

So no Kikka's in '44, much less '43, for JFBs [:(]




Lokasenna -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 5:05:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Correct. The repair chance for any R&D factory for any plane 2+ years ahead of the game date is almost non-existent. Now if feel you have the resources as Japan to waste this way ... [:)]


Correct. But as a funny experiment, a dashing and experienced IJ player should do it.....[:D]


It's not really a waste if you're planning ahead. What is wasteful is speeding through lots of R&D when you don't need to, and burning thousands of supplies switching factories between lines as you complete them.




Lowpe -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 5:36:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

And for those that say well if you had expanded the R&D factories at the beginning ... I actually did that with another model that had a date of 6/45. I made these factories 0(31) at the game's start. So far the factories are STILL 0(31) [:@]. Again in May '44 so only a year away from the historical date. So the Kikka's R&D factories are actually doing better thanks to RND chances [:)]




Hmm., check out my link and post 263 (No Jocke).

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3916032&mpage=9




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 5:55:17 PM)

Well you still have a long way to go to get all those factories repaired before a single R&D point is produced. So in 4 months you have repaired ~ 10%. Not what I would call a good track record [:)] Given that rate it will take you 3.5 years to get them fully repaired. So you may get them 3-4 months early as I said earlier. Still not worth it imho as I will bet you that the game will be well over before a single one is produced [:)]. But who knows. Maybe your RND generator is better than mine [:)]

My R&D factory of 2 [:D] for these planes is fully repaired and I am 28% towards a month accel. [:(] So I expect that they fully repaired around 4-5 months ago. About the time when I got within the two year window. I still have a few other types factories that are still completely unrepaired too though.




Alpha77 -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/13/2015 9:25:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar


So no Kikka's in '44, much less '43, for JFBs [:(]


Well who knows how good they really are....if they get shot down by Allied sweeps on landings and take off, like most Me262 in Europe were, their potential can not be exploited anyway [:(]

I just got 1 point of a 3/45 plane factory repaired [:D]




Barb -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 5:29:02 AM)

Actually the best research lines for airplanes are: Zero, Oscar and Tony




Lowpe -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 4:42:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Well you still have a long way to go to get all those factories repaired before a single R&D point is produced. So in 4 months you have repaired ~ 10%. Not what I would call a good track record [:)] Given that rate it will take you 3.5 years to get them fully repaired. So you may get them 3-4 months early as I said earlier. Still not worth it imho as I will bet you that the game will be well over before a single one is produced [:)]. But who knows. Maybe your RND generator is better than mine [:)]

My R&D factory of 2 [:D] for these planes is fully repaired and I am 28% towards a month accel. [:(] So I expect that they fully repaired around 4-5 months ago. About the time when I got within the two year window. I still have a few other types factories that are still completely unrepaired too though.


Obvert in his game against Jocke, r&d the Ki95 recon plane with one size 30 factory. He go the plane and was flying it June 23, 1945. Four months early. Don't you think if he would have had two size thirty factories plus engine bonus he might not have gotten the plane significantly earlier.

Spidery wrote a simple program that would estimate plane arrivals and I really can't share data from his AAR since he might come back, but it argues for a select late war fighter research program.






GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 7:59:19 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Spidery wrote a simple program that would estimate plane arrivals and I really can't share data from his AAR since he might come back, but it argues for a select late war fighter research program.

It's all about the distribution of R&D. Both extremes (concentrating on early, and concentrating on late planes) are wrong because of diminishing returns you get from each additional R&D factory in the same model of plane. You get huge boost when getting from 0 to 1, or from 1 to 2 factories researching. But adding more and more factories you are getting less and less acceleration (in terms of time bonus)

i made some illustrative calculations:
E.g. assume you started the game, decided to allocate say 10 factories to your navy fighter research, and ponder A6M5 vs A7M2 allocation. Assume Rufe->A6M5 path, bypassing M3s for simplicity. Key thing is that when A6M5 arrives you would switch all research to A7M2.
1. A6M5 factories repair (as Rufes) in 3/42 and start researching A6M5 with upgrade chain switch.
2. When do Sam factories repair? Luckily, Ki-95 has same arrival date as Sam at 10/45, so we can assume all A7M2 factories fully repair at Obvert's date, which is around 5/44 (no engine bonus and 1 factory, 100 days per advancement, 4 advancements made until arrival at 6/45, 5/44 + 100*4 ~ 6/45 sounds about right).
3. What about engine bonuses? Ha-35 bonus is almost always there, highly sought for, and we can safely assume it works for the duration of A6M5 research. Ha-43 is tricky with arrival date at 9/45, so it would be a strain to get bonus for Sam research in 1944. Assume no bonus for all duration for simplicity.
4. Now what are the dates of arrival for both planes given all research done? Some guesses here about the timing of A6M5 switched to A7M2 repair but nothing wild:
A6M5  A6M5    A7M2  switched fac   A7M2 w/o switch A7M2 with switch
fac   arrival fac   repair at?     arrival         arrival
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 0     8/43   10    -              10/44        =  10/44
 1     2/43    9    late 44 nogood 10/44        =  10/44         
 5     8/42    5    ~10/44         12/44           11/44
 9     6/42    1    ~9/44           6/45           12/44          
10     6/42    0    ~9/44          10/45            1/45

You trade earlier A6M5 vs earlier A7M2 as expected, but giving some R&D to each model in the beginning (like 5/5) gives you much bigger combined time advancement. In the end it all depends on how you value different planes early availability.
Supply cost is also different but I assumed 100k supplies is manageable
Engine bonus presence/absence tilts things somewhat but does not change fundamentals

Edit: there is luck involved here and I might've unerestimated its importance. When R&D repair is lucky for you, you can get couple fully repaired factories earlier and this is not a small matter as with engine bonus 1 advancement a month not only gets research done but also makes arrival date closer and allows other factories to repair faster. So quantity of R&D factories is a quality of it's own )




Lowpe -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 8:33:02 PM)



7 factories size 30 yielded a 1 year and 4 month advance for a final generation fighter, but I cannot find the start date for the factories. Highly doubt it was from the beginning of the game.




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 8:35:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
7 factories size 30 yielded a 1 year and 4 month advance for a final generation fighter, but I cannot find the start date for the factories. Highly doubt it was from the beginning of the game.

Can easily be done for Ha-45 planes, engine bonus is much easier for those




Lowpe -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 9:34:38 PM)

The example I cited above was with the Ha 43 engine...[:)]

My point is simply to illustrate that researching planes more than 2 years in advance doesn't yield almost a 0% chance of repairing as earlier mentioned. Yes, the repair chance isn't fast, but getting a final generation fighter 1.5 years early isn't to be discounted especially in a pdu on game.

However, it does come at a steep opportunity cost.[:)]

In a pdu off game, getting that final generation fighter (say the Ki94) doesn't help much if you haven't gotten all the other upgrades in the army fighter line: oscar line, tojo line, tony line, frank line. You will have the plane in the pools, but no squadrons that can fly them![:D]





GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/14/2015 10:32:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
The example I cited above was with the Ha 43 engine...
Checked mu calcs, they are ok. Must be earlier factory repair then for you, I dunno if Obvert's date for Ki-95 I used is representative. Or engine bonus. Or Shinden which is later than Sam for couple months
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
My point is simply to illustrate that researching planes more than 2 years in advance doesn't yield almost a 0% chance of repairing as earlier mentioned. Yes, the repair chance isn't fast, but getting a final generation fighter 1.5 years early isn't to be discounted especially in a pdu on game.

That is correct, you would be better off overall not neglecting later planes from start. And early planes too. Useful planes that is )




Numdydar -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/15/2015 1:56:00 PM)

Gents thanks for the discussion. But I will definitely have to disagree with your viewpoints.

I never said that the repair rate for 2+ years in advance R&D factories was zero, I said almost non-existence. As shown by my 0(31) for a 6/45 historical date plane. So even after getting within the 2 year window (it is 5/44) I still do not have a single one repaired. I also have quite a few still at 0(2) as well.

If you are playing something other than Scenario 1/2 then it may work differently. But for these two it is not worth it for me to do this. Like I said your RND may be better than mine [:)]

One thing that was not mentioned is you ALSO need to expand the engine factory. No good to get the planes early but no engines [:)]. So they need to repair (although they do repair faster) and start producing before the planes are ready. So another cost to Japan.

I hope it works out for you. It will be interesting to see what if any impact it will have to the game depending on when you get them. Of course it will be a few years before we find out [:(]




PaxMondo -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/15/2015 2:08:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista


i made some illustrative calculations:
E.g. assume you started the game, decided to allocate say 10 factories to your navy fighter research, and ponder A6M5 vs A7M2 allocation. Assume Rufe->A6M5 path, bypassing M3s for simplicity. Key thing is that when A6M5 arrives you would switch all research to A7M2.
1. A6M5 factories repair (as Rufes) in 3/42 and start researching A6M5 with upgrade chain switch.
2. When do Sam factories repair? Luckily, Ki-95 has same arrival date as Sam at 10/45, so we can assume all A7M2 factories fully repair at Obvert's date, which is around 5/44 (no engine bonus and 1 factory, 100 days per advancement, 4 advancements made until arrival at 6/45, 5/44 + 100*4 ~ 6/45 sounds about right).
3. What about engine bonuses? Ha-35 bonus is almost always there, highly sought for, and we can safely assume it works for the duration of A6M5 research. Ha-43 is tricky with arrival date at 9/45, so it would be a strain to get bonus for Sam research in 1944. Assume no bonus for all duration for simplicity.
4. Now what are the dates of arrival for both planes given all research done? Some guesses here about the timing of A6M5 switched to A7M2 repair but nothing wild:
A6M5  A6M5    A7M2  switched fac   A7M2 w/o switch A7M2 with switch
fac   arrival fac   repair at?     arrival         arrival
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 0     8/43   10    -              10/44        =  10/44
 1     2/43    9    late 44 nogood 10/44        =  10/44         
 5     8/42    5    ~10/44         12/44           11/44
 9     6/42    1    ~9/44           6/45           12/44          
10     6/42    0    ~9/44          10/45            1/45

You trade earlier A6M5 vs earlier A7M2 as expected, but giving some R&D to each model in the beginning (like 5/5) gives you much bigger combined time advancement. In the end it all depends on how you value different planes early availability.
Supply cost is also different but I assumed 100k supplies is manageable
Engine bonus presence/absence tilts things somewhat but does not change fundamentals

Edit: there is luck involved here and I might've unerestimated its importance. When R&D repair is lucky for you, you can get couple fully repaired factories earlier and this is not a small matter as with engine bonus 1 advancement a month not only gets research done but also makes arrival date closer and allows other factories to repair faster. So quantity of R&D factories is a quality of it's own )


You should definitely search for the earlier threads on this. This has all been discussed to the fullest extent possible with all of the knowledge that the devs are willing (or able) to share.
You have some erroneous assumptions above that you will want to correct. Again, all has been discussed and then tested. You need to look back ~4 years to find the threads.

YMMV.




Lokasenna -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/15/2015 4:04:43 PM)

FWIW, I have had some A7M factories since game start. I have been watching one every day for the past few days, now in November 1943, as it is nearing fully repaired status. I suspect it didn't begin to repair at a decent rate until mid-43, but it was definitely part of the way along before then. According to Tracker, my combined factories were over 50% repaired by turn 556 (the earliest turn I have in this Tracker database). That's sometime around June 1943, which would be the 2-years-out date (standard arrival for A7M2 is 45/6).

It's extremely easy to burn hundreds of thousands of supply on aircraft R&D when you don't need to. Just set your factories at the beginning, even with PDU On - you don't need wonder planes in 1943. You just need better planes than the Allies have. Or even just comparable planes, if your pilots are OK.




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/15/2015 7:23:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar
I never said that the repair rate for 2+ years in advance R&D factories was zero, I said almost non-existence. As shown by my 0(31) for a 6/45 historical date plane. So even after getting within the 2 year window (it is 5/44) I still do not have a single one repaired.
That looks extremely unlucky. I think you meant 5/43 as your running date though, as 5/44 and 0/31 definitely look like a bug or no supply on base (which I'm sure is not your case).
I set some size 30 factories from start in my last vs-AI stock Scenario 1, and by Feb 5, 1942 that is only 2 months Sam (9/45 arrival) gets 0,2,3 repaired, while Grace (12/44) gets 0,0,1,2,3. No other late planes for me.
quote:

One thing that was not mentioned is you ALSO need to expand the engine factory. No good to get the planes early but no engines . So they need to repair (although they do repair faster) and start producing before the planes are ready. So another cost to Japan.
Those are really very predictable as engines always repair 1 factory per day, so it's only about your willingness to expend supply on expansions. Some of the engines are no brainer to advance and even get full bonuses to all R&D because of early arrival date (Ha-45). Others are trickier but still easily manageable to get into production on time if you not sweat about engine bonus, because engine research starts much earlier (practically from Jan 42) than for airframes. Ofcourse you still need to make choices early because you can't accelerate everything at once

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
You have some erroneous assumptions above that you will want to correct.
Care to point those out in a few words?

Edit:
While all is known about how R&D points are generated (and I assume 30 size factories always with 1 point per day w/o engine bonus and 2 points with), repair algorithm seems more obscure.
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3022096
This is the only thread with R&D repair estimations where guys refer to actual simulations done to gauge the formula for R&D repair. Results in a nutshell mean that between the date of starting research and scenario date of arrival of the plane R&D Factories repair for 63% of available time on average, hence leaving 37% to actual research. Size of the factory does not matter timewise
With my example above staring R&D repair on A7M2 in 8/12/41 with arrival in 1/10/45 (it's wrong, is 9/45 in stock 1, but this does not change the conclusions) adding 63% means 4/5/44. Which is exactly the month I inferred for my calculations using Obverts Ki-95 experience. Woohoo!

Edit2:
I let the scientist in me out for a while, built myself a quick R&D simulator using repair probabilities mentioned in the thread I linked, so here is some interesting resulting eyecandy for you all. Results from several simulations of R&D from gamestart using different number of factories involved on an airframe available in 10/45. Illustrates nicely the law of diminising returns.
The actual ingame probability of R&D repair might be somewhat different, need to test it myself sometime in the future. But the mechanics is the same, with hyperbolic decrease in repair ability for far-off planes.
Surprisingly for me, luck does not play as much a factor as I expected. While first fully repaired factory can arrive with wildly varying timing, actual plane arrival is pretty tight
[image]local://upfiles/32892/B1B815F569AB4F22B4AD7F9E7C635B95.jpg[/image]




PaxMondo -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/16/2015 2:21:41 AM)


[http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3022096
This is the only thread with R&D repair estimations where guys refer to actual simulations done to gauge the formula for R&D repair.
[/quote]
No, there is a much earlier thread must be 2010? where someone (Yaab maybe? I forget exactly who) sandboxed the R&D several times to examine how the '46 plane R&D factories would repair. It was quite an interesting study. Now, it is possible that the algorithm was changed in the ensuing 100 or so beta's since that work was done. Maybe someone will repeat the testing ....
Alimentary's formula, while great math, never had empirical testing to support it or at least I never read it.




GetAssista -> RE: Today's Japanese R&D lesson (9/16/2015 6:36:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Alimentary's formula, while great math, never had empirical testing to support it or at least I never read it.

I was referring to kmitahj's remark of his own sandboxing results coinciding with alimentary's formula. Seen some other referrals to 63%/37% guideline here and there too. Maybe I'll do sandboxing when I have some time, it's pretty straightforward, only time consuming.
I'm also wary to look way too back in the past. There were some bugs introduced into R&D and later removed, that made their way into AARs and experiences, with people achieving ridiculous advancements that are no longer possible now.




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