OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (Full Version)

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nashvillen -> OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 7:22:10 PM)

Gardner Island, 149,144

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/aluminum-fragment-appears-to-belong-to-earharts-plane-141028.htm?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=MythBusters




mind_messing -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 7:33:02 PM)

After a quick google search, I wouldn't get too excited. TIGHAR seems has a long history of being close to finding Earhart without actually doing so.

They've managed to come close in 2010, 2012 and 2013, but there's still no conclusive evidence as to the fate of Earhart.

I'll take this one with a grain of salt.





nashvillen -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 7:43:54 PM)

I just thought it was cool that it was on one of the islands we have in the game. Until they have a body, she will forever be missing.




Zorch -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 7:53:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

After a quick google search, I wouldn't get too excited. TIGHAR seems has a long history of being close to finding Earhart without actually doing so.

They've managed to come close in 2010, 2012 and 2013, but there's still no conclusive evidence as to the fate of Earhart.

I'll take this one with a grain of salt.



I second your grain of salt. TIGHAR always finds something to justify another expedition.

'Mainstream' opinion is that Amelia didn't have enough fuel to get that far, and probably ditched somewhere closer to Howland Island.




Lokasenna -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 8:56:01 PM)

Ahem.

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/amelia-earhart-resting-place.htm




Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 10:34:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Ahem.

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/amelia-earhart-resting-place.htm


Read the article. More conjecture based on flimsy evidence. Very convenient explanations for why no physical evidence exculpating this tale was found to be scrutinized.




warspite1 -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 10:36:27 PM)

They made a documentary about this - saw it on Sky a while back. Sounded pretty unconvincing to me...




pontiouspilot -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 10:59:48 PM)

I believe there are 2 discovery Channel shows on this. The 2nd was more convincing...my hunch is that they have likely solved the mystery. Apparently the US Coast Gd had a station on this island during the war. Human bones were discovered and sent to OZ or Kiwi where they were examined and it was assumed they were Amelia. Evidently the bones were thereafter lost.




Lokasenna -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/29/2014 11:32:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Ahem.

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/amelia-earhart-resting-place.htm


Read the article. More conjecture based on flimsy evidence. Very convenient explanations for why no physical evidence exculpating this tale was found to be scrutinized.


I did. Did you? I think you dismiss everything as conjecture.

That flimsy evidence is as good as they're ever going to find. Not saying that was definitely her, but it's a whole bunch of circumstantial evidence that points to her and nothing else has ever been found. It's the best guess.

I also like how you're dismissing the physical evidence in the article at the start of this thread.


What do you think happened? Aliens? Giant mosquitoes? Maybe chickens.




mind_messing -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 1:41:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Ahem.

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/amelia-earhart-resting-place.htm


Read the article. More conjecture based on flimsy evidence. Very convenient explanations for why no physical evidence exculpating this tale was found to be scrutinized.


I did. Did you? I think you dismiss everything as conjecture.

That flimsy evidence is as good as they're ever going to find. Not saying that was definitely her, but it's a whole bunch of circumstantial evidence that points to her and nothing else has ever been found. It's the best guess.

I also like how you're dismissing the physical evidence in the article at the start of this thread.


What do you think happened? Aliens? Giant mosquitoes? Maybe chickens.



http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/59_DNAResearch/lewisstatement.pdf

quote:

At this time the analyses of the TIGHAR samples are inconclusive....

The bone fragment was very small, approximately one gram of material...

Because the bone is clearly from an animal, human or otherwise, additional PCRs were used to detect animal DNA more generally. These PCRs provided no positive results. The fact that these PCRs were unsuccessful suggest that either 1) there is no animal DNA in the bone, 2) there was animal DNA in the extract, but it was too little, or of too poor of quality, to reliably analyze, 3) the PCR design was ineffective for targeting the particular animal...

For now, the question of whether the bone is human must remain unanswered...


Draw your own conclusions.




LoBaron -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 6:51:33 AM)

quote:

A new biopic about Earhart's life, starring Hilary Swank and Richard Gere, opens this weekend.


[8|]




warspite1 -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 7:56:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Ahem.

http://news.discovery.com/history/us-history/amelia-earhart-resting-place.htm


Read the article. More conjecture based on flimsy evidence. Very convenient explanations for why no physical evidence exculpating this tale was found to be scrutinized.


I did. Did you? I think you dismiss everything as conjecture.

That flimsy evidence is as good as they're ever going to find. Not saying that was definitely her, but it's a whole bunch of circumstantial evidence that points to her and nothing else has ever been found. It's the best guess.

I also like how you're dismissing the physical evidence in the article at the start of this thread.


What do you think happened? Aliens? Giant mosquitoes? Maybe chickens.
warspite1

Because one doesn't necessarily take the flimsy evidence around one tiny fragment of bone and an unidentified skeleton (that subsequently went missing) as proof of Amelia Earhart's final resting place, that does not mean aliens, giant mosquito's or even chickens are any more likely now does it? Why is it the best guess? With the evidence available at the moment, why isn't the best guess the accepted story? Especially given the doubts around whether Earhart had sufficient fuel to reach Nikumaroro.

If that evidence is all they are ever going to find - then there simply isn't enough evidence to confirm one way or another.

The only interesting - and new - piece of news here is about the plane itself (from the first article). Now this really IS interesting. I certainly await the outcome of the expedition in June of next year with interest.




Rising-Sun -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 8:17:15 AM)

It was interesting story, I knew it was somewhere in the Pacific, surprised she manage to land near an island or atoll.




wdolson -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 8:57:42 AM)

There are also stories that might fall into the urban legend category that Ehrhart's plane was found on Saipan when the US took it in 1944. The story was she set down somewhere else (forget where) and the Japanese captured her. They executed her and her navigator after interrogating them, but they repaired the plane and kept it at Saipan. Somebody in the American brass wanted to cover up the story, so they had the plane destroyed.

I think that story is a bit of a stretch.

The more likely two scenarios are that they

a) went down in the ocean and just vanished into the vastness of the deep like so many fliers did a decade later
b) went down on one of the small uninhabited islands, died of starvation, exposure, or injuries and the plane washed away in a storm (many hurricanes/typhoons have blown through that region since her plane was lost)

a) is the most mundane, but more likely story. Ehrhart herself was a terrible navigator and was also very stubborn. She may not have listened to her navigator until it was too late. In that part of the world being off course on a long flight by just a few degrees can turn out to be a death sentence.

A few years ago I heard the story they crashed in the Lagoon of Gardner Island. The debris found there could have washed ashore in a storm, so scenario a) might still have happened.

Bill




crsutton -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 3:02:13 PM)

It is very similar to the search for the Ivory Billed Woodpecker. Every decade or so the media gets flooded with a story about new evidence with some very credible institutions rising to the bait.. (read Smithsonian here) and then the story quietly dies out for lack of substantive evidence. The problem is that everyone really wants this bird to be alive and not extinct and that drives the events. It is pretty much the same with Amelia. She was an icon and we all really do want to know what happened to her. However, until I actually get to see the frigging bird, I am not going to buy anything. Same with Amelia. Find the aircraft and then give me a call. Until then....




crsutton -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 3:10:38 PM)

Truth is, I have always had a crush on her. Like the Babe, she was bigger than life. Aviators were the "rock stars" of the 1920's and 30's

[image]local://upfiles/8095/4F73518ACE7B43BA9BF6DADFBD2954D9.jpg[/image]




Rising-Sun -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 5:40:19 PM)

Very interesting story and so many possibilities. Taken on a long trip can be risky due to weathers and other problems.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 7:36:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
That flimsy evidence is as good as they're ever going to find.


Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. They're not done searching for her and something may turn up when least expected. But what they've produced to this point is unconvincing. Maybe not for you, YMMV. I'm totally unconvinced.

quote:


I also like how you're dismissing the physical evidence in the article at the start of this thread.


Ah, yes. The absolutely unconvincing physical evidence that may or may not be *animal* bone? Let alone human bone. Let alone Amelia Earhart's. That evidence? Yes. Please forgive the dismissal-clearly that's a cut and dry case you've got there. [8|]

What do I think happened? The mundane. They were lost in the vast reaches of the Pacific and we're unlikely to ever come up with their final resting place. 'Tis the story of countless other sailors and aviators.

Why romanticize or make up a story about a less likely end? There's no shame in being lost at sea. It's a far sight more likely than all confirmable traces of your body / aircraft / companion / clothing, etc. being whisked away in toto by a convenient Typhoon or having body parts carried away by coconut crabs.




Zorch -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 7:51:53 PM)

It's very difficult to prove that something did NOT happen. The only way to 'prove' she didn't make it to Gardner Island is to find her plane 17,000 feet down 100 miles away. And since that is unlikely, we will likely never know what happened.

Her plane is a lot smaller than Flight MH370 and the search area larger (although the weather is better).




warspite1 -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 7:54:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

It's very difficult to prove that something did NOT happen. The only way to 'prove' she didn't make it to Gardner Island is to find her plane 17,000 feet down 100 miles away. And since that is unlikely, we will likely never know what happened.

Her plane is a lot smaller than Flight MH370 and the search area larger (although the weather is better).
warspite1

I agree. Personally I think she never flew to Howland Island. She turned around, flew to Graceland and married Elvis. They are both still alive and living on the moon. Prove me wrong.




Lokasenna -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 8:45:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
That flimsy evidence is as good as they're ever going to find.


Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. They're not done searching for her and something may turn up when least expected. But what they've produced to this point is unconvincing. Maybe not for you, YMMV. I'm totally unconvinced.

quote:


I also like how you're dismissing the physical evidence in the article at the start of this thread.


Ah, yes. The absolutely unconvincing physical evidence that may or may not be *animal* bone? Let alone human bone. Let alone Amelia Earhart's. That evidence? Yes. Please forgive the dismissal-clearly that's a cut and dry case you've got there. [8|]

What do I think happened? The mundane. They were lost in the vast reaches of the Pacific and we're unlikely to ever come up with their final resting place. 'Tis the story of countless other sailors and aviators.

Why romanticize or make up a story about a less likely end? There's no shame in being lost at sea. It's a far sight more likely than all confirmable traces of your body / aircraft / companion / clothing, etc. being whisked away in toto by a convenient Typhoon or having body parts carried away by coconut crabs.


The plane fragment in article from the OP.

To be honest, I don't really care what actually happened to her. She's gone, and that is that.

What ifs aren't romantic.




Zorch -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 9:54:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

It's very difficult to prove that something did NOT happen. The only way to 'prove' she didn't make it to Gardner Island is to find her plane 17,000 feet down 100 miles away. And since that is unlikely, we will likely never know what happened.

Her plane is a lot smaller than Flight MH370 and the search area larger (although the weather is better).
warspite1

I agree. Personally I think she never flew to Howland Island. She turned around, flew to Graceland and married Elvis. They are both still alive and living on the moon. Prove me wrong.

[&o] [&o] [&o]

And Bigfoot (Sasquatch) joined them on the moon.




obvert -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 10:17:07 PM)

Here is another article with more. Looks like they're going to check out something in the water found on sonar. Could be a whale carcass, could be a coral encrusted palm tree trunk, could be a Lockheed Electra.

Seems to me if we don't try to find out the impossible we miss out on a lot of useful and very real stuff along the way.

http://www.livescience.com/48526-amelia-earhart-airplane-search.html




geofflambert -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 10:25:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

quote:

A new biopic about Earhart's life, starring Hilary Swank and Richard Gere, opens this weekend.


[8|]



I'll wait for the one starring Lea Martini and Peter North.




wdolson -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 11:10:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

It's very difficult to prove that something did NOT happen. The only way to 'prove' she didn't make it to Gardner Island is to find her plane 17,000 feet down 100 miles away. And since that is unlikely, we will likely never know what happened.

Her plane is a lot smaller than Flight MH370 and the search area larger (although the weather is better).


Additionally the search for Ehrhart's plane is made all the more difficult by being a smaller plane, more fragile, lost close to 80 years ago, and they didn't have any of the tracking tools we have today that gave us some leads on where MH370 went.

We'll know more when they investigate the anomaly found on the sonar sweep, but I suspect it will turn out to be a false lead. It could even be part of a WW II aircraft down there. That part of the Pacific wasn't the most active region during the war, but the US was running ASW flights out of every spit of land by the end of the war. I believe a Ventura is a little bigger than an Electra, but they are in the same size range.

Bill




Big B -> RE: OT: Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified (10/30/2014 11:20:48 PM)

Wdolson's reference below got me wondering, so I found this doing a Google of Amelia Earhart + Saipan
http://earhartonsaipan.blogspot.com/
and
http://www.ameliaearhartmovie.com/briefcasefoundinsaipan.html

I don't know what really happened (I mean - I wasn't there)...but this sounds as likely and intriguing as the wreckage on Nikumaroro...


quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

There are also stories that might fall into the urban legend category that Ehrhart's plane was found on Saipan when the US took it in 1944. The story was she set down somewhere else (forget where) and the Japanese captured her. They executed her and her navigator after interrogating them, but they repaired the plane and kept it at Saipan. Somebody in the American brass wanted to cover up the story, so they had the plane destroyed.

I think that story is a bit of a stretch.


The more likely two scenarios are that they

a) went down in the ocean and just vanished into the vastness of the deep like so many fliers did a decade later
b) went down on one of the small uninhabited islands, died of starvation, exposure, or injuries and the plane washed away in a storm (many hurricanes/typhoons have blown through that region since her plane was lost)

a) is the most mundane, but more likely story. Ehrhart herself was a terrible navigator and was also very stubborn. She may not have listened to her navigator until it was too late. In that part of the world being off course on a long flight by just a few degrees can turn out to be a death sentence.

A few years ago I heard the story they crashed in the Lagoon of Gardner Island. The debris found there could have washed ashore in a storm, so scenario a) might still have happened.

Bill





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