RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (Full Version)

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obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 3:38:04 PM)

19 December 1941
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A few things learned and a menace removed.

DEI: During the night Boise hit Singkawang alone. The IJN SCTF near Kuching reacted and the resulting battle was heated. I couldn't believe how much this ship can take and dish out. It managed to disengage but was again tracked down and Hatsushio put a Long Lance into her and sent her under. Banzai!! [&o]

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Night Naval bombardment of Singkawang at 56,88

Allied Ships
CL Boise

Japanese ground losses:
19 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 2
Port hits 1

CL Boise firing at Singkawang

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Day Time Surface Combat, near Singkawang at 56,88, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Nachi, Shell hits 4
CL Isuzu, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
DD Kuroshio
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio, Shell hits 2

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 18, heavy fires, heavy damage



Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 20,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 20,000 yards
Gallagher T. crosses the 'T'
CL Boise engages CA Nachi at 20,000 yards
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Day Time Surface Combat, near Pontianak at 55,90, Range 25,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Haguro
CA Nachi
CL Isuzu, heavy fires
DD Kuroshio
DD Oyashio
DD Hatsukaze
DD Natsushio

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 20, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk [&o]



Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 25,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 25,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Boise at 25,000 yards
Range closes to 23,000 yards

CL Boise sunk by DD Natsushio at 11,000 yards
Combat ends with last Allied ship sunk...

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Elsewhere in the area, Palembang is reinforced. 13 units and 13920 troops. That looks like a Brigade landing. So divisions will be needed.

He has played this well. If I had brought enough to take this base early, I most likely would have gotten those troops sunk. If I didn't he reinforces. So the other option is to let him reinforce. Build forces. Move with as much as I can when I know I can get it there.

In the meantime more actions like today are needed. Although it wasn't at no cost. The CL Isuzu has 34 system, 24 flood and 91 (!!) fires. Might not make it. It's going at cruise 4 hexes a day to Saigon. The two CA have system damage in the 20s.

Jesselton fell today. Also, on the other side of things Jolo is ours and Ternate is landed. There are no troops here. I think I know where they've gone.

subs: I-20 hits the AK Florence D with one torp today. No troops on, so they may be unloaded or just on the other ships. The SCTF is moving in regardless.

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Sub attack near Wake Island at 136,98

Japanese Ships
SS I-20

Allied Ships
xAK Florence D., Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
AVP Avocet
AK Castor
xAP St. Mihel
xAK Laida
AM Grebe
AM Tern

SS I-20 launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Florence D.
I-20 bottoming out ....
AM Grebe fails to find sub and abandons search

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China: Things went well in China. The AVG was encountered near Wuchang by Oscars diving out of the sun onto lower P-40s. They shot down 5 and took no losses. He was obviously at bomber altitudes, not expecting sweeps.

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Morning Air attack on 20th Chinese Corps, at 83,51 , near Wuchang

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 10



Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 13


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
H81-A3: 2 destroyed

CAP engaged:
AVG/2nd Sqn with H81-A3 (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead

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Sinyang is still ours. It withstood another 1:1 DA. The division made it in but didn't like much being attacked in move mode. The moral is down to 53. Still, this most likely means the base will survive. Forts were knocked to 1 but are at 84% and the extra engineers might throw them over the top to 2 again.

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Ground combat at Sinyang (86,48)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 49725 troops, 275 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1547

Defending force 18772 troops, 178 guns, 13 vehicles, Assault Value = 582

Allied adjusted assault: 566

Japanese adjusted defense: 365

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
662 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1186 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 212 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)


Assaulting units:
48th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
12th Chinese Corps
29th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
7th New Chinese Corps
2nd Group Army
3rd Group Army
31st Group Army

Defending units:
13th Division
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
12th RGC Temp. Division
18th RGC Temp. Division
52nd Road Const Co
67th JAAF AF Coy


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KMT troops moved into Hankow, Wuchow and Nanchang today. Bombardments will go tomorrow to see what we have. Only 1 unit is in Wuchow, so no fears there. At Hankow 10 units moved in. This is a substantial force. Most likely around 2000 AV. We have level 4 forts and 1200 AV, so no chance it's being taken, but I also can't push them out just yet. I'll just hit from the air and get reinforcements in quickly. It would be nice to be able to hit this many Chinese troops out of the forests in clear hexes.

At Nanchang 5 units moved in. We have 500 AV plus level 4 forts here. I'll move the SNLF in as well to survive a first attack if he's going fast. Then the division will have time to make it. It's clear, so again, bombing will be key.

Pacific: The Shock attack at Guam went poorly. A 1:3, still forts 1, and now we're all messed up. An SNLF from Babeldaob will move in quickly.

PI: Surigao on Mindanao fell.

No planes were up at Manila and our bombers again didn't fly. I'm only giving this a few more days here, then I'll move the zeros on to the next target.

Malaya: A ton of flak at Singapore hurts our Sallys flying at 10k, but they manage to drop 2 250kg bombs on CL Dauntless and 1 on CL Dragon in port. Won't kill them but it might keep them out for a bit. Also, it makes him defend the base. Fighters in fact were sitting here after the turn. Lucky they were not up today. Tomorrow sweeps will fly.

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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 17


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 9 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Dragon, Bomb hits 1


Repair Shipyard hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 2000 feet *
City Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 2000 feet *
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 25
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 29


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Dauntless, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires

Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb


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[image]local://upfiles/37283/C5F4B1FD7BF2427D8341096CECA99058.jpg[/image]
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Glad they only had one over here at this point in the war!
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SqzMyLemon -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 5:20:16 PM)

First off, let me say I'm relieved Wenchow went so smoothly for you. That takes a potential lingering problem out early. Like PH said though, it's very easy to see those divisions sucked into the vortex that is China, permanently.

I think you are in great shape right now all over the map. Losing the three CV's was big of course, but I like the fact Torsten is coming to you. That makes things much easier to deal with in my opinion. Just take your time, get your counters in place and voila...everything will be alright! [8D]

To counter both Sinyang and Hankow...go west young man, go west. Nanyang. Come in behind the Chinese and look to close all the hex sides they've entered from. Torsten either withdraws, or stay and dies. It seems to me he's employing the standard ploy of buying time for his rear areas to build up, while he uses his forces offensively to delay you getting to his vitals early. Use that against him. Perhaps look at the best ways to counter indirectly rather than where he wants you to. As long as you get sufficient strength positioned to hold key bases, you should be able to move on since he's committed so much strength forward.

Palembang's going to be fun, I'm looking forward to seeing what you do there. I have no doubt Torsten will whittle his strength away over time. One thing about these bombardments he's conducting. I don't think the wear and tear is as much as you think. I was able to keep up all those bombardments against Lunga in my game for extended periods of time and the system damage never got higher than 10% and some small engine damage levels. A benefit of these bombardments to you is this, they burn through a lot of supply. The more he bombards, the less his troops at Singapore, Palembang and Batavia will have. It's a good thing.

At Wake, do you think he's setting you up for a CV ambush? I'd be careful of a trap to attrite your surface forces.

Anyway, things look great. If he's given you the Celebes on the cheap, so much the better. One fire at a time, but stay on course for your war. He's trying to dictate the pace and I think you'll turn that around on him pretty quick. Banzai!




Hortlund -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 6:47:59 PM)

13 units at Palembang only means he is flying in troops from all around the map. The number of troops is very low.

You are rapidly losing this game right now. Every day you delay, he grows another 20-30 AV. He has not moved in one of the dutch regiments yet, for whatever reason. BUt soon he will do that. And soon the two Indian Brigades will be in place, and soon after that the 18th UK.

You are much much too cautious. Im trying to explain why you cannot waltz around like you do right now, but you keep finding excuses not to attack. Sending ships to Cam Rahn to replenish or CVLs to wherever to upgrade. Loading divisions in ports far to the rear. The shipping time alone from Samah to Palembang is over a week.

You need to get there now. As in two-three days. With what you have in place at Singkawang/Kuching/Kota Bharu/Saigon/Cam Rahn. You need to do this now. As in NOW. Not in a couple of days, not when your ships have replenished their ammo.

Palembang is not a task for a division or two. If you have to bring that number of troops you have already lost. If you have to defeat a division at Palembang, odds are the refineries will be too damaged.

The losses you will take are acceptable. Palembang is the only hex (or one of very very few) on map that justifies any type of loss. I dont care if it costs 20 transports or 2 CAs or even a BB. If you fail to do this, if you fail to take P in the next week, you might aswell just drop the game. In that case you have already lost.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 7:05:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

13 units at Palembang only means he is flying in troops from all around the map. The number of troops is very low.

You are rapidly losing this game right now. Every day you delay, he grows another 20-30 AV. He has not moved in one of the dutch regiments yet, for whatever reason. BUt soon he will do that. And soon the two Indian Brigades will be in place, and soon after that the 18th UK.

You are much much too cautious. Im trying to explain why you cannot waltz around like you do right now, but you keep finding excuses not to attack. Sending ships to Cam Rahn to replenish or CVLs to wherever to upgrade. Loading divisions in ports far to the rear. The shipping time alone from Samah to Palembang is over a week.

You need to get there now. As in two-three days. With what you have in place at Singkawang/Kuching/Kota Bharu/Saigon/Cam Rahn. You need to do this now. As in NOW. Not in a couple of days, not when your ships have replenished their ammo.

Palembang is not a task for a division or two. If you have to bring that number of troops you have already lost. If you have to defeat a division at Palembang, odds are the refineries will be too damaged.

The losses you will take are acceptable. Palembang is the only hex (or one of very very few) on map that justifies any type of loss. I dont care if it costs 20 transports or 2 CAs or even a BB. If you fail to do this, if you fail to take P in the next week, you might aswell just drop the game. In that case you have already lost.


I appreciate your comments always. You are far more experienced and doubtless could have this in hand in the next few days. Seriously. I don't doubt it.

When you play a game as Japan, the game is already lost. I'm not playing to 'win.' I'm playing to explore what is possible. I don't thikn any loss is acceptable to get Palembang. The oil is the reason Japan is fighting, yes. I'm not worried as much about losing a ship or two. I'm worried about losing the troops I send. Do you see the amount of ships in the area? It's not like he can't overflood whatever I bring and still get to the transports.

Beyond that, I'm interested in the possibilities of what happens when the fortress is created and I use that strategically to my advantage. The oil may be damaged, but I can't control that. It might be damaged if I land now as well. That's 13k troops, or possibly two Brigades worth right now, plus engineer and smaller troops. It could be 300-400 AV. And I should land with whatever I have against the whole British, Dutch and US navies?

I'll take all advice on, but I will act on what I believe and am interested in exploring in this game. I hope that doesn't keep you from making further suggestions. I really value the input, but I simply see the game differently right now. I want to play it well, but not haphazardly and not to 'win' or 'lose' at all cost. This is fun right now. I'm enjoying the process. I think I can bleed his forces and perhaps push back the time he can come back at me in 43-44 if I make some good choices and have a bit of luck as well. It might be another few weeks, but I can come there on my own terms and possibly knock him off balance while doing so. I may still find this was the wrong choice, but I have always been a person who learns best from my own mistakes.




Crackaces -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 7:17:47 PM)

quote:

When you play a game as Japan, the game is already lost.


I am interested in exploring this further. Why do you see it that way? It there some other defintion of victory besides the game's crteria? For example, I am the Allies [as you know] in a contest and I see victory as very very close .. that is 2:1 by Jan 1945 and I see the IJ lasting until 1946 which is the IJ's goal .. I think this is very very doable .. at least that is my opinion thus far in my limited experience ...[8D]




witpqs -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 7:39:42 PM)

I took that to mean that he is losing the race for Palembang. And if he gets in a quagmire at Palembang it can be bad news overall.

FWIW I agree overall with PH, bring whatever you can to Palembang right away. Quality and cohesion mean little against the forces you will face there provided that you get there quickly.




SqzMyLemon -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 8:02:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I took that to mean that he is losing the race for Palembang. And if he gets in a quagmire at Palembang it can be bad news overall.

FWIW I agree overall with PH, bring whatever you can to Palembang right away. Quality and cohesion mean little against the forces you will face there provided that you get there quickly.


I think that's understood. Where obvert is coming from makes sense though. He's facing a substantial amount of Allied naval firepower. He has to ensure that whatever troops he sends to Palembang, actually get there. Rushing in now doesn't guarantee the troops won't get sunk en route if an Allied SCTF gets to his transports. The small matter of Allied air has yet to be dealt with as well.

There's two schools of thought on Palembang. One being get there at all costs to prevent a "Fortress Palembang" and the other is if faced with a "Fortress Palembang" turn it to your advantage. Both Nemo and Alfred have talked about how this situation could be used to Japan's advantage. Both Chez and OneEyedJacks failed to recognize the danger and let it fester too long. Obvert knows what's he's dealing with and has a chance to counter the "Fortress Palembang" strategy. I for one, am looking forward to seeing what he does and if indeed this can be turned around to Japan's advantage. If not, it's another learning experience for us all on the dangers of letting the Allies get a foothold in Palembang too early.




JocMeister -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 8:13:24 PM)

Im with Lemon on this one! There is no use in just sending everything to Palembang unless they have a good chance of actually getting there. Nothing good ever comes from doing things in a state of panic. Sending troop convoys into the teeth of enemy warships tend to end only in one way. And troops on the bottom of the sea wont take Palembang anyway.

If you are going to do something you might aswell do it properly. If he fortresses so be it. If Alfred and Nemo thinks it can be countered it probably can.

That being said. I really think you need to get to Palembang really, really fast! [:D]





ny59giants_MatrixForum -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 8:17:07 PM)

If the three at sea brigades off the west coast of India can get there and safely unload, then the cost of taking Palembang goes up considerably. A few turns of running those transports at Full Speed can get them there by about this time in the game. Subs at Oosthaven and on the west coast of Sumatra would seem a must. Add in the 18th UK Division that starts at Cape Town and the situation can go from bad to critical in a short time frame.




Hortlund -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 8:59:39 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
There's two schools of thought on Palembang. One being get there at all costs to prevent a "Fortress Palembang" and the other is if faced with a "Fortress Palembang" turn it to your advantage. Both Nemo and Alfred have talked about how this situation could be used to Japan's advantage. Both Chez and OneEyedJacks failed to recognize the danger and let it fester too long. Obvert knows what's he's dealing with and has a chance to counter the "Fortress Palembang" strategy. I for one, am looking forward to seeing what he does and if indeed this can be turned around to Japan's advantage. If not, it's another learning experience for us all on the dangers of letting the Allies get a foothold in Palembang too early.


I dont think Nemo thought there was any advantage for Japan with a Fort P, Nemo, being Nemo, simply stated how he would respond if he was faced with the Fort P situation 1eyed was faced with. The line of thinking was that if P is impossible to take, the Jap player must go for India instead. The "benefit" being that the Allied forces in Fort P could not defend India at the same time.

The difference of cource, is that to seriously attack India, you need the KB.

The advantage for Japan to be facing a built up Fort P are about the same advantage as peasants armed with pitchforks have against a machine gun company in a trench-line.




SqzMyLemon -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 10:25:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
There's two schools of thought on Palembang. One being get there at all costs to prevent a "Fortress Palembang" and the other is if faced with a "Fortress Palembang" turn it to your advantage. Both Nemo and Alfred have talked about how this situation could be used to Japan's advantage. Both Chez and OneEyedJacks failed to recognize the danger and let it fester too long. Obvert knows what's he's dealing with and has a chance to counter the "Fortress Palembang" strategy. I for one, am looking forward to seeing what he does and if indeed this can be turned around to Japan's advantage. If not, it's another learning experience for us all on the dangers of letting the Allies get a foothold in Palembang too early.


I dont think Nemo thought there was any advantage for Japan with a Fort P, Nemo, being Nemo, simply stated how he would respond if he was faced with the Fort P situation 1eyed was faced with. The line of thinking was that if P is impossible to take, the Jap player must go for India instead. The "benefit" being that the Allied forces in Fort P could not defend India at the same time.

The difference of cource, is that to seriously attack India, you need the KB.

The advantage for Japan to be facing a built up Fort P are about the same advantage as peasants armed with pitchforks have against a machine gun company in a trench-line.


That's a good point PH, thanks for putting things in the proper context. At least the Allied units currently there can't be used elsewhere. Palembang is what it is, but we'll still get to see how obvert deals with it. Once he brings his weight to bear things will get sorted out.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:08:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

When you play a game as Japan, the game is already lost.


I am interested in exploring this further. Why do you see it that way? It there some other defintion of victory besides the game's crteria? For example, I am the Allies [as you know] in a contest and I see victory as very very close .. that is 2:1 by Jan 1945 and I see the IJ lasting until 1946 which is the IJ's goal .. I think this is very very doable .. at least that is my opinion thus far in my limited experience ...[8D]


I don't mean to sound defeatist. Far from it. However, this game is based on real forces, and Japan had no real hope of 'winning' a war on tactical terms with the Allies. It's only hope was to win a strategic battle by forcing the US to stop fighting because losses were becoming too great to bear. That won't happen in game. No player is going to say, 'I just lost 6 divisions in a month trying to take the Kuriles, so I'll sue for peace.' Every Japanese player, if they are lucky and skilled enough to make it to 45-46, will be forced back onto a few islands off Northern Asia. That is still an achievement, and I hope to get there in every game I play, but it's not exactly 'winning.'

I want to play to test out strategies, explore tactics, have fun with what I can control and not get too worked up over what I can't. I'll be the first to admit I'm not a veteran or expert player, and so I shouldn't play like one. If I feel I can't master the tactics at this point to negotiate an all-in strategic choice by the Allies in Sumatra head-on, then I hope I can find a creative solution that will prove entertaining to me, my opponent, and possibly explore things that have not been dealt with extensively in game in a public AAR.

This has been a major focus of several AARs lately. I'm curious what would happen if I were to not invade Palembang now. I will try to, and I may succeed, but it would be great to also play through the scenario of forcing a POW Palembang. Yes, the oil could be screwed. But there is still the chance it won't be. I certainly won't be relying as much on the KB in this game, so maybe I won't need as much of it anyway. [;)]




Captain Cruft -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:13:56 PM)

Fortress Palembang is a game exploit pure and simple. It should be HRed out, or play DBB where Refineries don't produce supply.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:25:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I took that to mean that he is losing the race for Palembang. And if he gets in a quagmire at Palembang it can be bad news overall.

FWIW I agree overall with PH, bring whatever you can to Palembang right away. Quality and cohesion mean little against the forces you will face there provided that you get there quickly.


I think that's understood. Where obvert is coming from makes sense though. He's facing a substantial amount of Allied naval firepower. He has to ensure that whatever troops he sends to Palembang, actually get there. Rushing in now doesn't guarantee the troops won't get sunk en route if an Allied SCTF gets to his transports. The small matter of Allied air has yet to be dealt with as well.

There's two schools of thought on Palembang. One being get there at all costs to prevent a "Fortress Palembang" and the other is if faced with a "Fortress Palembang" turn it to your advantage. Both Nemo and Alfred have talked about how this situation could be used to Japan's advantage. Both Chez and OneEyedJacks failed to recognize the danger and let it fester too long. Obvert knows what's he's dealing with and has a chance to counter the "Fortress Palembang" strategy. I for one, am looking forward to seeing what he does and if indeed this can be turned around to Japan's advantage. If not, it's another learning experience for us all on the dangers of letting the Allies get a foothold in Palembang too early.


I wasn't around for the Nemo-One-Eyed Jack's game and I haven't yet read the AAR (s). I will try if I can to check them out.

I did experience the Canoerebel game with Chez from the beginning. I though about it a lot. I heard all sides of the arguments. Alfred and others commented that there could be a moment when the Allies had brought a lot, but not enough to hold in an extended siege where supply was cut off at sea. I can't do this obviously, at least not now. So I am forced to go earlier. I will try to get there as soon as possible, and now that I know what I'm really facing, it means there is already a possibility the oil will be wrecked.

I have always wondered why more Allied players don't play with this kind of abandon with their forces early on. Torsten is absolutely throwing his ships at mine and at my bases. There is no holding back. All of those ships in an area like that between Borneo and Sumatra could make it hard for any force of transports to get through intact , especially when the completely untouched air force is also waiting there.

The other option no one has mentioned much is what happens if I do get Palembang intact, but it's so early that his bombers just grind it down and take out a third of the oil anyway? That began to happen in my first PBEM with Dan Nichols. I couldn't stop night bombing at all, and even the crap Dutch bombers were very good at hitting oil wells in the dark.

I do know what I am dealing with. It is a fun test for me. I will do my best to get the oil. I just have to do it the way I think is best and most suitable to my capabilities as a player right now.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:34:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

If the three at sea brigades off the west coast of India can get there and safely unload, then the cost of taking Palembang goes up considerably. A few turns of running those transports at Full Speed can get them there by about this time in the game. Subs at Oosthaven and on the west coast of Sumatra would seem a must. Add in the 18th UK Division that starts at Cape Town and the situation can go from bad to critical in a short time frame.


It looks like those brigades are there. At least when I see troop numbers go up from 11800 to 13500 in one day and APs are in the hex, that's my guess.

I have a division and a brigade that could land soon. Will that take the base? Not sure. Will they get to the base? That is the more serious question to me right now.

Transports are slow and vulnerable, as we know. Torsten has already shown he can take out very fast and relatively tough targets (the KB) with surface forces. With a BC, at least 3 CA, about 10 CLs and 20 DDs, wouldn' t it seem like he could also effectively knock out at least one of those transport convoys that must take the troops to Palembang in the very narrow confines of the area involved?

I think some measures have to be taken to weaken the surface threat before the serious troops are sent. Not taking Palembang now might cause dire consequences. Losing a division at sea, right now, would certainly cause great difficulty for the Japanese.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:40:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Fortress Palembang is a game exploit pure and simple. It should be HRed out, or play DBB where Refineries don't produce supply.


The game is what it is. I don't believe that it's an exploit. It was folly for the Allies to not destroy the oil in the real war. Why should it be sacred in the game?

Also, most supply he'll use to feed troops will not have to come from Palembang. The last thing the Allies need to worry about is having enough supply. He could bring 200k supply right now and land it at Oosthaven, and there would be little I could do about it.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/6/2012 11:51:35 PM)

While I want to respond to all posts, I also hope it's not starting to sound like I don't appreciate what everyone is offering. All of it is great to hear. Based on all of this there are some plans formulating. I'll outline those soon. I'll also try to put in perspective why I am finding it hard to just react and take the base right away by showing what I have available.

Right now I need to do a turn (for Jocke) and then hit the hay. The end of the school year is brutal, and I have to proctor final exams tomorrow. [:(] Yuck.





Dan Nichols -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 12:12:54 AM)

So the troops number went up by 170 in one day? That is about 15 squads or so. Not much increase. That is just some squads being flown in.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 12:24:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

So the troops number went up by 170 in one day? That is about 15 squads or so. Not much increase. That is just some squads being flown in.


Good catch Dan. My bad, missed off a zero. They went up about 1700 in a day.




Miller -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 12:25:11 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Fortress Palembang is a game exploit pure and simple. It should be HRed out, or play DBB where Refineries don't produce supply.


Irrelevat if the Jap player goes for it within the first two weeks of the game. Take Sinkawang (as is possible) by 10th Dec and get Nettys in to sink Force Z/Boise etc and Zeros on LRCAP to support the Palambang invasion, job done.

Only a poor IJN will let "Fortress Palembang" happen.




Captain Cruft -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 1:05:51 AM)

Did ABDA even remotely consider the possibility of doing anything like a Fortress Palembang IRL? The place is a malaria-infested swamp. Not really a good location for several divisions of troops who must survive on eating naptha sandwiches and trying to use petcoke pellets for ammo.

As to the "ship stuff in" argument, IRL there was not even the beginnings of any excess of "supply" in that area of the world in Dec 1941.

Really I don't think there's any argument about this, but most importantly it just renders the game totally uninteresting if the Allied player can pull it off. Who wants Game Over in Dec 1941?




witpqs -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 2:57:01 AM)

Whoa - I thought you had seen about 1,000 to 1,100 troops there! More than 10k now - you've got to attack methodically.




PaxMondo -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 3:13:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller
Only a poor IJN will let "Fortress Palembang" happen.

+1

HR is not appropriate. Good play is. [;)]




PaxMondo -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 3:16:37 AM)

This is going to be interesting to watch.  It looks as though he has 50% of the fortress in place.  If he can get the forts up to 3 before you get there ... swamp bonus plus forts will make it very costly to get Palembang.




SqzMyLemon -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 4:21:36 AM)

Post removed.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 9:31:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Whoa - I thought you had seen about 1,000 to 1,100 troops there! More than 10k now - you've got to attack methodically.


In my original report I had mis-written the number as well! I had to double check today and realized i was off by a few.

It's actually 13,920. Up from 11,880 the turn before.

I write the AAR from one machine and play from another, so often certain things are not right in front of me.

So, yes, he's been working hard over there behind the scenes.




JocMeister -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 10:24:28 AM)

Hm, what would that mean in AV looking at a worst case scenario? The 18th is not there obviously but I guess he brought in the two brigades. Thats what around 250 or so AV? Probably a dutch regiment aswell. You could be looking at 300-500 unadjusted AV. With the swamp modifier and 2-3 forts Im pretty sure a division + brigade wont be enought. I think you missed the chance for a quick grab. [:(]

Its absolutly essential you close off Palembang right now! If he get the 18th in there you are going to need 10 divisions to dislodge him. Get some Nells there ASAP and move in the battlefleet and make sure NOTHING gets into P by sea.




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 12:01:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Hm, what would that mean in AV looking at a worst case scenario? The 18th is not there obviously but I guess he brought in the two brigades. Thats what around 250 or so AV? Probably a dutch regiment aswell. You could be looking at 300-500 unadjusted AV. With the swamp modifier and 2-3 forts Im pretty sure a division + brigade wont be enought. I think you missed the chance for a quick grab. [:(]

Its absolutly essential you close off Palembang right now! If he get the 18th in there you are going to need 10 divisions to dislodge him. Get some Nells there ASAP and move in the battlefleet and make sure NOTHING gets into P by sea.


Just so I know what timeframe I have, how long do you think it will take to get the 18th there? A month from the beginning? 3 weeks?

All naval forces are being marshalled and sent in. It will be fun at least!




JocMeister -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 1:31:22 PM)

Well, they start loaded to go in CT! If he split the convoy to let the fast ships race ahead they might show up any day now. Someone smarter then me might be able to calculate the earliest possible date. [:D]




obvert -> RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs Historiker (A) (6/7/2012 1:54:33 PM)

The turn is away.

----------------------------------------

West DEI:

Lots of naval forces moving into the Singkawang area. A 4 CA 5 DD TF leads the way, with another 2 CA 5 DD TF coming along to set up one hex away. The hope is to attract attention and fight any and all ships nearby. He's fond of sending multiple smaller TFs to flood an area, so these are meant to be strong enough to take on a larger force but in multiple TFs to have something possibly fresh around at all times. I allocated 5 SCTFs that will be in the area in the next few days.

A feint of transports will follow with a surface group and supported by the strengthening mini-KB (now with a total of 30 zeros and 28 Kates) which is on the way to Miri to post and refuel. The transports will try to reach Billiton with troops, to see what happens. Just a small AF Coy on board. Many small TFs are radiating out from Cam Ran Bay and Saigon to support the operations.

Minesweeping is needed at Kuching, as some gifts were left there. Then supply will move in. Engineers are heading to Singkawang and to Kuching.

Brunei will be invaded in the next day or two. Troops are walking to Kudat from Jesselton. Beaufort will be invaded within the week just to stay tidy in the area.

Transports are now able to move to Hong Kong after the mines were cleared. They will pick up the 38th division to head to Palembang. This, the Brigade, and elements of the division starting at Sendai will be the first forces able to land there should conditions prove amenable to send them in the next week. Good conditions will mean some surface forces have been engaged, sweeps are going over the fields at Palembang and a bombing campaign or bombardments have hit the base. all of these depend on my logistical success and reactions of my opponent to moves in the next few days. I need supply at Kuching and can't reach Sumatra yet from there with no drop tanks.

East DEI:

Transports are heading to Samah to load up for Tarakan and Balikpapan. Same at Babeldaob for Kendari and Macassar. I might leave Ambon for a bit, but I'll see how things stack up in a few days. BBs supporting Mindanao landings are heading back to Babeldaob to replenish and then will transit to W Borneo to support Palembang landings.


Pacific and PI:

Transports should be on the way from Babeldaob to Guam and Naga tomorrow. Thinking of paradropping Malaybalay and sending the 80 AV tank rgt to Cagayan to get Mindanao sorted early. The regiment in Davao is moving out quickly to sweep across the island. A smaller garrison lands for that base today.

----------------------------------------

It's been interesting reading and responding over the last few days. I love all of the comments and criticisms. Even if some are hard to hear I welcome anything that will make me a better player during this or in subsequent games. I remember being amazed at Greyjoy's ability to deal with the amount of ideas and sometimes vociferous comments especially early on in his AAR with rader, and yet to respond to it all with charm and good humor. I'm no Greyjoy, as a player or a writer of AARs, but it's great to keep in mind how much he developed in that one game and how he did it through accepting all of those various ideas about how the game can be (or in some commentators thoughts, 'should') be played, and assimilating them sooner or later into his own style.

'Actually the worst thing you can do is to undervaluate your enemy.'

----------------------------------------

Many of you will know what is going on from Torsten's side. Great to have a dual AAR situation happening for both of us. Interesting comments in a mail from him today. I said I was catching some flak for not having landed at Palembang yet, and he said he didn't want to spoil any surprises there, 'but you'll find out what I mean and will be pleasently surprised!'

Not sure at all how to read that one. Who knows, maybe he's sending stuff to Singapore to hold there longer because he doesn't believe in a fortress Palembang, and is just hoping to lure a bunch of my troops to their deaths in the seas as I try to scurry there. Time will tell. [;)]




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