K.Pooley -> RE: BoB - Kevin v Swift (5/12/2010 12:01:07 AM)
It's rarely a good idea to change most components of a strategy at the same time, but this is what I've decided to go with. Times are take off times:
0600 - RADAR recces.
0730 - Bomb most important RADAR targets (see below)
0815 - Fighter sweeps against all occupied Sector AFs and SECAFs in 11 Group.
0915 - 1st Bombing Wave - Bomb all occupied Sector AFs and SECAFs in 11 Group.
1415 - Fighter sweeps against all occupied Sector AFs and SECAFs in 11 Group.
1515 - 2nd Bombing Wave - Repeat of 1st Bombing Wave.
1630 - Recce all Sector AFs and SECAFs on today's target list.
...plus a number of 'odd' raids by Stukas, FBs or fighters.
As yesterday, aiming to target the minimum number of sites to conserve resources, ignoring the North, South West and Wales. This gives just five this time:
If this strategy works I won't need to worry about Swift's radar for much longer!
Looking at the recce figures shows that this is a total of 12; the 11 occupied SECAFs plus Hornchurch.
As yesterday this is a maximum-effort day. This is why I think this is sustainable, at least for a few days:
I have been monitoring MOR levels of 17, He 111 gruppen over the past three turns, and the results are quite interesting.
This graph compares the MOR losses or gains, compared with the units' starting MOR for the turn. It shows that as a gruppe's MOR at the start of the day drops, so the change of it dropping further during the day is descreased. In fact below a starting figure of about 24 there is actually a good chance of it increasing! Why do I think this is? Probably a number of things. Since the chance of breaking off an attack in the face of opposition increases as MOR gets lower it seems reasonable to assume that a unit breaking off is less likely to take casualties on that mission. Since casualties lower MOR this would make sense.
Secondly, just as replacement crews joining a unit bring with them their personal starting EXP they must similarily each have their own MOR. The lower a unit's morale becomes the more likely that the introduction of replacement crews will actually increase the MOR of the unit.
I would suggest that together these two effects serve to 'cushion' a unit's morale, with a positive pressure acting on it below a certain point. That would certainly explain why I have never, ever, ever seen a gruppe with a morale <12.