KL (Axis) vs Styeand (Allied) using Strong Def of Fr

[kennonlightfoot]

This AAR isn’t going to be normal since I start this game to see how bad the situation was for the Germans when the Allied player uses the strong defense of France. I am not that good with the game and in particular with the Axis side so this is going to be more a study of what the Germans can do production wise to win in France. I am going to test some side actions meant to keep the UK troops from completely stripping England and the Middle East, but I am not going to do any “Hail Mary” tactics. Hopefully we will be able to determine just what the German player can have ready to take France.

Styeand has agreed to be my Allied opponent in this undertaking and put up with me probably making a very early surrender. He is also free to add his comments to this AAR since I am posting it delayed.

I am concentrating my Advancement point on what I need to have for 1940. For the German it means maximum points in Assault, Breakthrough, Interceptors, Close Support, and Attack Subs. Any points left over will go to Warships and Large Warships but these two will be drawn down as I need to add points to the others.

For the Italians I will concentrate on Assault, Breakthrough, Naval Air, Warships and Attack Subs. For the Italians Attack Subs and Warships will be drawn down as points are needed in the main lines of advancement.

I switched all the tactical air to Naval Air since I see the Italians as the main threat to Allied fleets and they will need the support. I dissolved the one Interceptor because the Italians don’t have enough Advancement points to support it.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turns 1-3 Poland and Denmark

My Polish campaign got the Germans off to a poor start. It takes me three turns to take Warsaw. Mostly because of bad luck with 10:1 attacks producing retreats forcing me to use up all my movement without getting near enough to Warsaw to take it out. Since I pull the northern armor out of the battle at the end of the first turn so it can redeploy to take Denmark, it doesn’t take many failed kills to leave the German unable to finish Poland off on the second turn.

This doesn’t damage the German that much except in this case I also had really bad luck with the initial air battle which will cost me a lot of production to replace. Both Poland and Denmark are taken on Turn 3 (9/29/39) at the cost of 19 Land and 12 Air.

And, as a demonstration of my incredible bad luck playing either side at sea, my two sub groups take two hits each after only killing 3 Merchants. Effectively ending the Battle of the Atlantic since the Germans have shutdown Replacements while concentrating on building Panzers. It will be 1940 before German subs go to sea again.

[stjeand]

So Kennon asked for someone to go with a French all in...I decided to give it a whirl.

I decided to go WAY on in just to see what can the UK and French build...

I decided to disband the French bomber and one fighter...along with 2 UK bombers and focus on Armor and Mech...

I will wait for Kennon's pre-battle units then will put mine up.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turns 4 – 9 (Fall of 1939)

The Germans put 3 Armor and 2 Mechanized into production which will give them a total of 5 Armor and 2 Mechanized for the invasion of France. No subs are put in production.

The Italians are being prepared to contest the Middle East but will probably not have enough force to take it unless my opponent strips the defenses to much. They are building 2 Marine units and 6 Landing Units (for 60 Landing points). This will give them the ability to make four invasions (2 Marine and 2 Inf Corps).

[stjeand]

The French with their new found points put 2 Armor in production.
That UK put 2 Armor and 3 Mech and a couple of Large Inf Corps...

This will be the largest armored force ever assembled by the Allies.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 10 (1/5/40)

First turn of the year state. Here are the strength values with first the initial and then the current (1940).

UK
Land: 190 232
Air: 80 80
Navy: 106 106
Merchant: 215 211
Escorts: 13 13

France
Land: 575 575
Air: 35 35
Navy: 54 54

Germany
Land: 920 930
Air: 200 200
Navy: 36 41

Changes are small and reflect the reinforcement that were in the queue at game start.
Germany has restored its losses in Poland.

Production in Germany now turns to support units and returning units to active status that were put in Garrison mode to make those tanks. Keeping the Panzers effective is the major problem for the German who is always on the attack. So a significant amount of the Winter production is put into Supply Trucks. I am aiming for over 300 Supply Points to be available during the Summer campaign.

[kennonlightfoot]

Winter and Spring of 1940

Mostly this was the redeployment of the German Army from Poland to the Western Front. But I noticed a serious problem for the German. Moving units was destroying their Effectiveness. Combined with the weather I am suffering more damage than combat. The following is typical for all my units with some having even lower numbers because they had to move to rails to leave Poland. This list is for the XIX Panzer, one of my most powerful units.

1/19 88 Effectiveness
2/2 Snow 85
2/16 Snow 82
3/1 Clear 88
3/15 Rain 92
3/29 Snow 88
4/12 Snow 85
4/26 Rain 90
5/10 Rain 93
5/24 Rain 96
6/7 Clear 98

When I finally got a clear turn, I am not sure I had a single unit other than the ones that started on the Western Front at 100% Effectiveness.

And, then I started moving (-1 Effectiveness for each movement point expended) and combat making a big hit as well. My army’s offensive power just melted away.

This all got my interest in just what was happening with Effectiveness.
It can recover on turns you don’t move at a rate that depends on weather. Clear weather will give you about a 6% increase. While Rain turns give you only about 4 average.

However bad weather like Snow decreases your Effectiveness by about 3-4. Heavy Rain looks like its is going to be close to 6. I didn’t have any Blizzard turns to test but it is probably like Heavy Rain.

Since most of the turns from October through April are lousy weather in Europe and Russian Front, I am not sure units will recover more than a small percentage of their lost Effectiveness. Which means the Attacker’s armies need some clear weather turns in Spring and Summer to even get back to fighting level.

Then I looked at movement. It is hard to attack without moving and you take a 1% point hit to Effectiveness ever Operation Point you expend. For an Armored unit this can be a 10% decline in one turn. It will take 2-3 turns of not moving to recover from a single full move turn. What was also interesting was the alternate modes of moving. Moving air units by train was really bad. It looked like they took about a15 point hit. Better to fly to a new location unless it takes two full turns since flying only cost about 8% points. For some reason Shipping has no cost. I thought that changed in recent updates.

And, then combat. A 10:1 attack decreased Effectiveness by 6% with a combat factor loss of 1 to Attack and Defense. A 3:1 attack brought Effectiveness down 16%. I don’t have enough data but it looked like Armor was losing about 1-2 point in Attack/Defense for every 10% loss in effectiveness. I didn’t have enough samples to tell if it was linear.

All of which is terrible news for taking Paris against a reinforced French. Just the process of moving while killing every unit in your way is going to leave your units exhausted by the time they reach Paris. And, since the UK player doesn’t have to move until you get there, they will be at 100% Effectiveness while the German will be at 50% or worse. Then the killing of Axis units starts.

This all seems more severe than I remember. If France is this difficult due to Effectiveness loss, Russian is going to be a disaster.

[stjeand]

Well you will need to play around in Russia...so far me as a Russian...I am getting crushed but the Germans...

Me as the Germans...well in one game I got delayed a month due to rain so I am screwed and it was the 1940 scenario so the Germans are WAY behind in everything...but I did make Romania surrender which might cause a delay...
In the other I am doing fine.

The Russian units are NOT good...
I think it may be that some of the changes are too much for the Russians but have to play there more.


A smaller BEF is the key to a good experience in France.

More than happy to test that with you...as either side.




We could switch it up

[kennonlightfoot]

Turns 11 – 18 (January-April)
The Germans spend this time rebuilding their Armies and moving them to the Western Front. They see a number of Advancements occur in time for the Battle. Advancements are made in Breakthrough, Assault, and Attack Subs. The Italians have advancements in Warships, Assault and Attack Subs as well.

My general tactical plan is of course for the Germans to take Paris.

One side plan is to maintain the ability to land troops in England if they leave a port open. But this one is very weak since I am only holding on to the 10 Landing Ships for doing this. One division isn’t going to be a game changer, but I wanted to be able to test this in case it should be more boldly done in a future game. As long as the German doesn’t take the Cities that trigger the USA, they can play havoc in England if the Allied player strips it to much.

The second side plan is to build up Italy so that they can make landings in the Middle East. Again, it is only being done weakly since I don’t want to commit any German forces to it. If it turns out to be something that can work then in future games it would be reinforced. For this game it means only building two marine units and enough Landing Craft to put two Italian Infantry Corps and the two Marine units ashore.

The Italians are also going to concentrate on Naval Air units to support those landings and later try to keep the British fleets out of the Mediterranean.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 19 & 20 (May)

And, then it rained and rained….

While this won’t affect the test for France, it is probably death to any long-term plans for the Axis. They just cannot afford to lose an entire month in this critical year.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 21 (6/7/40)

The Phony War and Rain end. Germany declares war on all the Low Countries. Two German Panzers are upgraded to Engineers to help with the river crossings. One HQ is now commanded by Rommel.

Here is the how my Advancements are laid out:

Germany
Assault: 1940 with 5 pts and 275 days left to next upgrade.
Breakthrough: 1941 with 6 pts and 173 days.
Interceptors: 1941 with 5 pts and 358 days.
Combat Support: 1940 with 5 pts and 305 days.
Warships: 1941 with 2 pts and 365 days (these points will disappear as needed elsewhere).
Attack Subs: 1941 with 6 pts and 294 days.

Italy
Assault: 1940 with 5 pts and 275 days.
Breakthrough: 1940 with 5 pts and 266 days.
Naval Air: 1941 with 6 pts and 247.
Warships: 1940 with 3 pts and 288 days.
Attack Subs: 1940 with 3 pts and 314 days.

The German Economy

Production is at 251 with an upkeep of 84 (some advancements still being done) and a stockpile of 227 (which is low because of the large number of advancements that came in May).
I had 281 Specialty points but 200 were used for the Engineer upgrades.
All production will now be channeled into reinforcements.

Support unit wise I have 232 Supply Trucks with 20-30 per turn in the reinforcement queue (about 110 points worth).
But not much else. 2 Air Transports, 10 Landing Ships, 1 Supply Oiler.



Amsterdam is quickly taken with a comb of 1 Infantry, 1 Panzer w Engineering, and 1 Mechanized. Then enough front-line Belgium units (two) were taken out by another Panzer w Engineering with Infantry support to allow the Armor units to take Brussels.

Casualties were surprisingly light. 9 Land and 2 air lost.

Up though May the Battle of the Atlantic has been improving over it’s rather poor start. In the first five months of the year the German has lost 2 Sub factors while sinking 11 Merchants and 3 Escorts. Not bad for just 3 Sub Units but the initial loss of 4 factors in Sep. of 39 has cost the German.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 22 (6/21/40)

The Germans move up to the French border and start reducing the line there. Since most of the Units aren’t all that close most of this turn is just getting there. Lille is taken and part of the French front line driven back a hex.

For reference here are the Force numbers at the start of June:

UK: 590 Land, 80 Air, 105 Navy, 203 Merchants, 14 Escorts.
France: 839 Land, 40 Air, 54 Naval, 29 Merchants, 1 Escort.
Germany: 1130 Land, 200 Air, 41 Naval, 55 Merchants, 2 Escorts.
Italy: 480 Land, 60 Air, 68 Naval, 34 Merchants, 5 Escorts

Here are the positions at the end of the turn. And, here is where a better retreat/surrender rule will help. I left a gap behind my two lines to prevent units from being killed because they couldn’t retreat. But that leaves some of my fresh troops to far away to be used.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 23 (7/5)

The Germans quickly bust up the French line and drive to the Somme where I have to stop to let the Infantry move up as a buffer to a counterattack. My Armor is already showing signs of weakness due to loss of Effectiveness. Supply trucks just cannot undo even movement loss much less combat loss of effectiveness.

Casualties for Turn are:
Gr: 17 Land, 24 Air
UK: 13 Land, 52 Air
Fr: 60 Land, 10 Air

German production doing well with Stockpile up to 459 and still have 110 Supply Trucks.

Interestingly the British are leaving some of their Ports in the north of England ungarrisoned. I am going to prepare a mini invasion if they continue to leave Edinburgh empty. I am not sure the Germans can afford it but an alternate plan for punishing an Allied player for stripping England would be to build some extra Landing Ships and move the Airborne over to the coast to support a serious landing. There is no penalty for invading England as long as you avoid the three cities that trigger USA responses.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 23 (Allied Actions)

During the Allied phase of this turn a couple of things happened.

One, they committed air attacks on my ground units by their Carriers. It didn’t appear to do much damage, but I may respond to that later.

The second thing, for the first time they counterattack my line pushing back some of my front-line units but my Infantry screen prevented any serious contact with my armor. It also exposes the resulting advanced units to my counter attacks next turn. Also, depriving most of them from their entrenched benefits. Unfortunately, they are able to withdraw all the UK units behind the French (French love to be used as cannon fodder).

Two Infantry Units were forced to retreat with losses: X Corps (-6 pts) and VII Corps (-4 pts).
One Armored Unit, 1SS Panzer, was also attacked and forced to retreat at loss of 2 pts.

The negative of using the infantry buffer with an empty retreat hex line behind the armor is that it leaves my units for my attacks next turn three hexes away from the French line.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 24 (7/19)

My Armor drives through the French line but still isn’t doing much damage to the UK units who will punish me on their turn by striking at my overextended line. I also upgrade the II SS to Elite to give me a little more punch, but all my armor are rapidly losing their Effectiveness.

I decide to divert some of my Air units to punish the UK Carriers with strikes by the I, II and V KliegeKorps. With some nice results. The Illustrious CV is sunk and two Battleships took damage. Although at the cost of 7 Air points.
I also decide to remind the British to protect their Homeland. I landed a division and took Edinburgh. In their turn they move their fleet to blockade Edinburgh but it will divert resources.

Casualties are:
Gr: 48 Land, 14 Air
UK: 18 Land, 26 Air, 8 Naval
Fr: 69 Land, 2 Air, 0 Naval

German Production still good with 317 Stockpile and 140 Supply Trucks.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 25 (8/2)

After driving in some the French front line, I pulled back some so only and infantry line was exposed to direct attack. It came but other than driving some Infantry back, little damage was done to the German. But it leaves my line pretty far back for the next attempt to clear a path to Paris.

The British Carriers retreat and let the French provide shore support. It looks like Germany has won the air supremacy over France since most of the UK Air has withdrawn and there is not much left of the French Air.

Casualties are:
Gr: 29 Land, 2 Air
UK: 38 Land, 0 Air
Fr: 67 Land, 7 Air

German production is now 279 with upkeep of 273 and a stockpile of 323.

The Map for the Allied phase below shows how far I got pushed back. Almost all my armor is now down into the 10 and 11 range thanks to Effectiveness loss that Trucks can’t put a dent in.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 26 (8/16)

The Germans advance driving both the French and British back across the rivers but I got overconfident and push to far forward leaving two units very vulnerable (Highlighted in Red) to the coming counterattack. These to units will become my main losses (shattered) for the France Campaign.

I also made a Navy sortie thinking I could take advantage of the Allied deployment around Edinburgh. While it was successful it set me up for a severe Naval counterattack. I’ll claim my brain wasn’t working (forgot about the French fleet and lack of land-based air support).

While I almost made it to Paris you can see what the fighting and moving has done to my units. The lead Amor is down to a strength of 3, almost all due to Effectiveness loss. That armor being in the second line was a mistake. By the time I noticed it there was no way to fix the problem.

The Infantry Corps that moved so far south was an intentional sacrifice since I had hoped it along with my paratrooper (dropped just north of Vichy) would keep enough of the British and French busy that they could manage a strong attack against my main line. The British hopefully being worried about being cut off from their retreat to the ports.

While this is going on the Italians are massing to invade the Middle East. My European moves intended to help them by prevent reinforcements from that front getting to the Middle East in time to stop them.

Casualties for this Turn (I am usually measuring Turns by from End of German move to end of current turn move) so it includes casualties from the Allied phase of the previous turn):

Gr: 79 Land, 4 Air, 0 Naval
UK: 37 Land, 0 Air, 5 Naval
Fr: 61 Land, 0 Air, 0 Naval

Production for this turn is 281 with upkeep of 191 and stockpile of 413 with 69 Supply Trucks.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 26 (Allied Phase Counterattack)

Then my weakened units were hit by the relatively fresh UK units and French Armor. Shattering on Infantry Corps, one Armored Corps and a Paratrooper (that one was expected). That they could get to a weak armored unit was my mistake.

My other mistake with the German navy resulted in a Naval counterattack that sunk the Admiral Hipper (CA), Deutschland (CA) and 1st CL/DD. While it kept the UK navy near England and out of the Mediterranean it was a steep price to pay.

[kennonlightfoot]

Turn 27 (8/30/40)

Paris is taken. But the lost month of May dooms the Axis. With only the month of September to try to do anything with there is little chance of Axis victory.

Casualties for this final turn were:

Gr: 52 Land, 5 Air
UK: 22 Land, 2 Air
Fr: 34 Land, 15 Air

The Axis problem now is Effectiveness. My four remaining Armor units have number of 48%, 53%, 42% and 56%. The two Mech units are about the same with 54% and 39%.

But the main purpose of this AAR was to see if the Germans could defeat the Allied French strategy of all in there. It can be done and without losing any armor or mechanized units (the one I lost was through error).

The total casualties through August 1940 are:

Gr: 280 Land, 77 Air, 28 Naval
UK: 128 Land, 80 Air, 20 Naval, 22 Merchants, 1 Escort
Fr: 338 Land, 56 Air, 1 Naval, 2 Merchants, 2 Escorts
The state of the forces going into September are:
Gr: 917 Land, 200 Air, 28 Naval, 55 Merchants, 2 Escorts.
UK: 537 Land, 43 Air, 97 Naval, 228 Merchants, 20 Escorts.
US: 75 Land, 40 Air, 48 Naval, 89 Merchants, 2 Escorts.
USSR: 1240 Land, 260 Air, 31 Naval, 20 Merchants, 3 Escorts.

Normally the German player wouldn’t have this high of Naval losses. They were due to my poorly conceived naval battle around Edinburgh just to see if anything could be done at sea. Obviously, little as long as the French Navy is active.

The question is, is this enough force to take on Russia in 41?

I am not sure an army with an Effectiveness of around 50% can recover by then. With only September with clear weather there is not going to be much gain. There might actually be a loss of Effectiveness as the units move to finish occupying France and relocating to the Eastern Front.

Because I poured so much production into extra Armor and Mechanized units along with Trucks to support them, I had no subs to take advantage of the weakness in the Atlantic. With this turn I put 3 Sub Units into production but I think the German has lost the Battle of the Atlantic. Even when I finally got 3 Sub Units back in action they did only light damage to the UK. 22 Merchants and 1 Escort killed at the cost of 10 Sub hits.

The other side strategy I planned was for Italy to invade the Middle East which will now start. But its to late in the year for it to succeed. I am doing it more to see if it is possible or not. If anyone shows an interest in seeing that part of the 1940 campaign I will post it. Basically, the Italians were able to take Syria with landings by two infantry Corps and 2 Marine Divisions. The Libya forces were able to push back the two small infantry units the Allies had positions to block them. In Egypt they advanced to adjacent to Alexandria and took Cairo. In the Middle East they took control all the way down to Jerusalem before being stopped by reinforcements coming in from France. There things stalemated with bad weather, UK fleet driving off the Italian fleet with heavy losses and not enough supplies to fight even with German reinforcements. Eventually the Middle East fell but only after exhausting the Germans further.

[ncc1701e]

ORIGINAL: kennonlightfoot

All of which is terrible news for taking Paris against a reinforced French. Just the process of moving while killing every unit in your way is going to leave your units exhausted by the time they reach Paris. And, since the UK player doesn’t have to move until you get there, they will be at 100% Effectiveness while the German will be at 50% or worse. Then the killing of Axis units starts.

This all seems more severe than I remember. If France is this difficult due to Effectiveness loss, Russian is going to be a disaster.

A good summary indeed for France but I disagree for Russia. With Russian units experience at 20%-30%, and the fact you have space to move, contrary to France, you can destroy Red army easily at start.