Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective)

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: GloriousRuse

A lot of that also reflects one of the truths behind Barbarossa: yeah, the grand strategy was kinda dumb, but the operational execution was dazzling. WitE2 places emphasis on the German player making it dazzles while giving him the tools, not making the German units invincible legions to replicate it.

This is a concern of mine about the new game. It seems to downplay the strategic in favor of the operational. Specifically, the new factory evacuation system means the Germans cannot try to target Soviet industry, or, to the extent they can, the Soviets have no way to respond. Factories that were evacuated historically are still rebuilt in the east, while factories that were not lost historically cannot be evacuated even if the Germans move to capture them.

Going after resources seems to be a bust. Going after oil is extremely hard and probably not worth it in game turns. Manpower is probably a valid target, but I can't say if it is in the new game. So what is the German strategy? Are we forced to replaying the OKH's war: a dramatic lunge to the east hoping the Soviets collapse before we hit our logistical limit 500km into the country? How do we impact the Soviets ability to wage war beyond successful operations?

[GloriousRuse]

Well, speaking as a tester and not the designers, I would say you have certain strategic realities forced on you. Like that by the time you’ve “knocked out” the Russian war machine, you’ve also conquered Russia. There’s just no getting around the fact that outside of Ukraine, the bulk of Russian industry was in deep in the country or evacuated even further. Virtually anything west of Stalingrad and Moscow is exactly what it was historically - something that will take the edge off, but not a killing blow to the Soviets, especially once lend lease gets going.

Your other issue as the Germans is that Russia’s political capitals are not co-located with its industrial base. So causing political collapse and snapping up the resources are not identical goals.

That said, no, you don’t have to fight OKHs war. There are paths to victory that don’t even make it to Kalinin, others that aim for Moscow, ways to Saratov, and ways to the oil amongst others. I won one game by combining a seizure of Leningrad with a tolerable southern campaign and an advance into the industrial cities south of Moscow in ‘42. I never touched Stalingrad. In converse, OKHs performance is the pacing tool for the score, so if you come up with a clever plan the onus is on it to outperform history.

[GloriousRuse]

T5

A mixed bag of a week; I’m very happy to see the Moscow axis has stalled out for a moment, far less happy to see everywhere else the PGs continue to make big bold advances. As mentioned elsewhere, Bobo is very good at those, and it is of course wildly depressing to see lines dissolve in a pile of hasty attacks, but I hold out hope that this pace is trashing the Wehrmacht. Trash is a relative term because it takes a while for any army to fall apart, but one can hope that the constant drain will pay off later.

Of course, for that to matter I have to survive until later, and you already saw the interesting tactical bits in his post (ok, I cut off part of PG2 again), so what does that look like?

Well in ’41 we have three key VP marks to care about:



1. The first is the German sudden loss point – it probably won’t be an issue this game, but it is certainly a factor to consider in many. If by the start of the new year, the German High Water Mark is not at least 525 points, they lose the game. Another check is made at 575 in late ’42. Now, the HWM is not the current score. It is, as the name implies, the highest score the Germans have achieved. (The historical HWM for ’41 is 591 I believe). But you do need to get there.

This gap represents 155 VPs from where the Germans start, or roughly 12 target cities taken on historical schedule – or maybe 13-14 a bit slower. There are 17 target cities with 1941 dates, plus several “never taken” targets, so that doesn’t sound unachievable (it’s not), but it does have a few effects.

First is that the Germans can’t just hunker down on a nice line in ’41 and start digging in come the mud season. There is a real incentive to keep pushing through November and December, even if it means being over-exposed when the winter comes. It also means there is an incentive to hold on to gains through the winter – give away cities and you might give away the game in ’42.

Second is that there is a reasonable incentive to keep pushing on multiple axes. You simply need the VP – you can barely afford to be stopped on one axis, and if you’re stopped on two things will start looking very ugly for the Germans. Now, this can be paid off if you get a big win like Leningrad or Moscow, but you need to win that gamble if you took the forces off another axis.

And finally, there is an incentive to push hard and fast like Bobo is doing. The harder and faster you push, the more you move from burning the candle at both ends to putting it in front of a bonfire, but the more likely you are to immediately cross the line into safety. This is not cost free – running ahead of your supplies is murderous on trucks, tanks, and even infantry squads, but what option is ever free?

2. The auto-win condition at the start of the mud season (sort of-the weather model makes this much more variable) requires 700 VPs. That is a LOT of VPs – every single ’41 historical city on time or faster, and a few big bonus pick ups as well. It can be done, it can even be done without Moscow, but if it didn’t involve Moscow it would involve kicking the almighty crap out of the soviets everywhere else.

Unlike the “don’t” lose mark, the check requires the Axis to actively be holding those points when the time comes, not a once had HWM, so the soviets have their last chance to handle that.

For the obvious reasons I would like this not to happen to me.

The chief effect of this is to prevent the Russians from conducting a “run away” defense. Simply put you need to fight, at least some times in some places, or the Germans can win the game with less raw territory than they might require later. As you’ll see in coming weeks, we will soon be at the point where the soviets need to fight.

3. That 750 VP mark sticks with the Axis through most of ’42. This is a pretty big deal and by far the most potentially possible of the checks. The historical German HWM was around 694 in Oct ‘42, so in essence recreating the German campaign through their peak with most of Stalingrad fallen at blazing speed OR with a few bonus objectives can win them the game (or Moscow). Suffice to say this is also one I do not want to happen to me. Also suffice to say it prevents any concerns about me setting my defensive lines at Saratov and Gorky.

[GloriousRuse]

T6

The Germans are just moving too damned fast. WitE1 veterans will probably say “looks pretty typical to me”, so you’ll just have to take my word for it that this is not typical for WitE2. Usually the preparation, combat delay, new terrain features, and logistics systems drag the German advance down in speed. Bobo is really tearing across the Rodina, far more than normal. The flip of all those new things dragging down the advance is that unlike WitE1, losing Moscow and Leningrad has a good chance to be all she wrote rather than an annoying setback.

Time for the Russian historical response. Granted, they did this in August and not late July, buuuuuttt...

URRAH! URRAH! URRAH!



In the north, the Luga line is fr too valuable to give up to a single regiment. (And I really didn't see the Germans managing to make it through the heavy woods like they did - more fool me for under-estimating my opponent.) Fortunately, lone regiments are easy to cut off, making counterattacks deadlier. As an added bonus, when motorized units ROUT they often leave a pile of their trucks behind, which is a body blow that will drain their movement potential until their stocks are fully restored.



On the road to Moscow we have a unique opportunity to catch the panzers in a flanking movement, knowing that the Smolensk fortress will hold for a while longer. Nothing fancy here, just what happens when you are willing to throw 100k men into an attack:



And while it isn't going to win the war or anything, I'm pretty proud of this counterstroke against PG2, which not only punished 3rd panzer for breaking down into regiments in the face of serious soviet opposition, but cuts off most of the PG and works on some of the units in the cauldron as well. Particularly helpful now as cut off units have an incredibly difficult time dealing with broken down and damaged elements and those numbers are building up as the panzers keep fighting.



Alas that after that dash over the southern Dnepr we aren't in a position to serve up PG1 with much in this manner 14th panzer gets knocked back because it looked a little overextended, but that's it.

If T4 showed that counterattacks are viable, this week hopefully shows that they can be used to really change the flow of a German advance. I would go so far as to say that against a good opponent counterattacks are an absolute necessity. With WitE2s variable retreat results - particularly for low morale and unprepared units - just drawing the "perfect" defensive line will not succeed. Units will rout, retreat fifty miles, or otherwise perform in manners that you cannot mechanistically predict. Something will go wrong and giving the Germans a free hand to impose their will on you will end poorly.

The other side of that coin is that you are of course draining out your own CPP to conduct these attacks and need to generate that readiness to begin with by staying somewhat static and well supplied for a week or two. A poorly judged counterattack can unlock you defensive line in a hurry, just as a good one can give the Germans a sudden crisis. And you may have noticed from the sizes involved, half measures are no measures for the Red Army. If you want to win, you need to bring a massive hammer to the table.

Not that you always want to win - I advocate for it because it realy does do a number on the German plans - but lesser attacks are still useful. Even a failed attack drains MP, supplies, and combat power out of the German formation. There is a time and a place for attacks that you know will fail just to limit the German advance, but you want to know that is going to happen: you don't want to fail in attack you thought was going to win. So bring a big bloody hammer, because there's no reward for "almost won" efficiency with the Soviets.

[MAS]

Nice ripostes GloriousRuse! Love the propaganda poster too. Regarding the 3 combat reports you've shared, I have a couple observations and would appreciate your comments on them.

1) German losses are much higher than in WITE, which I think is realistic and more in line with the heavy losses they actually suffered from the moment Barbarossa began (e.g. about 63,000 dead in July '41 alone). However(comma)...

2) Soviet losses are much lower than my experience in either playing WITE or understanding of the history. From my reading, the Soviets suffered horrendous casualties in their attacks from the summer on through their winter counteroffensive, due partly to poor officer training and poor coordination with (and sometimes lack of) heavy weapons.

These 3 combat results don't seem realistic regarding soviet casualties. In all three you're taking fewer personnel casualties than the defender is. While this could be chalked up to blown leadership rolls, high fatigue, low ammo, and/or massive suppressing fire effects, effective leadership checks, etc., I'm wondering if these three results are typical or atypical for WITE2?

Also, did WITE2 do away with the option for the +1 CV bonus at the cost of higher Soviet casualties? It sure seems it isn't needed anymore!

Thanks much!

[loki100]

2), if you win, Soviet losses are sometimes not too bad, if you lose then its a slaughter, you can easily lose 2,000+ in that sort of attack

there is the enduring oddity in the WiTx design that reported kia can only come from destroyed elements, so sometimes you can attack, pick up a mass of disruptions and damaged but relatively few destroyed elements

So if you re-enact the Yelny'a style attacks then you will see very heavy Soviet losses, but equally you can drive the Germans nuts as their Pzrs are strung out taking low level losses, never shedding fatigue or recovering their CPP.

+1 is dead ... (along with the HQBU concept), both are far more logically modelled in very different ways

[GloriousRuse]

T7

A fairly quiet turn as the Germans mostly extricate themselves from last week's attacks and finish off the odd pocketed unit. I batter a few of the panzer/motor divisions down in PG1, but if you've read Bobo's T7 you get the gist of it.

So, since it's out there, lets talk losses.



First things first, the tempo of this game has been rather high. Both sides are bleeding freely; some less aggressive games would see lower losses on both sides. The fantastic rate of constant attacking has been pushing both armies to the wall, though the Germans obviously start in a much better position to absorb that sort of shock. Between that and their superior formations which won't usually rout until battered into nothingness, the overall cost to the Germans is going to be lower in a fangs out hair on fire strategy like this.

Before we go deeper, what causes losses?

The most obvious is direct combat. On the combat resolution screen you can see how many losses have been assessed from destroyed elements, predominantly translating to KIA and POWs. That part is straight forward. given the early war Russian propensity for collapsing into fiery ruin, more of their apparent losses can be seen in the immediate screen.



(It turns out that units that are less at the extreme end of their rope maybe kill more Russians...and that T26s are not good tanks. Who'd have guessed?)

However, you'll notice that there are large rows of "Damaged" elements. Like those 130 soviet rifle squads or some of the German howitzers in the screenshot. A Damaged element is just as hors de combat as a destroyed one as far as fighting is concerned, but generally the casualty effect is not immediately obvious. This is because Damaged elements are not processed until the logistics phase where they have a chance for recovery, cannibalization (turn two damaged elements into one functional and one destroyed one), return to the national pool at a roughly %40 manpower loss, or just plain being lost. Generally speaking the worse the supply situation, the lower the experience, the lower the morale, the higher the fatigue, the harder recovering damaged elements is. Being in contact with the enemy really hurts those odds further, and being Isolated is just a bad day for everyone. So in this case there's a pretty good chance there are a lot more soviet losses coming out of this attack than the cobat shows - we just won't know until the maintenance folks and field hospitals get their shot. The men who are lost will primarily be Disabled - seriously wounded that have a very low return rate on one end and a very low rate of dying of their wounds on the other.

Beyond that, the act of moving, particularly when fatigue is high and supplies are low, also piles up damage. Fall outs and blown engines take their toll. This accumulates as Damaged elements, and as such also is not readily evident until the logistics phase processes.

Finally, attrition rears its ugly head. Men and machines break under the best of circumstances, and the barren Ost is rarely anything close. Generally, poor supply, poor morale, poor weather, poor readiness, and poor fatigue all lead to higher rates of incidental attrition. Being in contact also increases attrition as patrols, barrages, and other minor tactical actions beneath the scope of the player are assumed to be taking place when units are next to each other.

As you can see, the immediately confirmed dead and dying at the end of an attack are usually just the tip of the iceberg for what is actually being lost.

----------

What does this all mean strategically? Stay tuned for the next slower Soviet turn, when we'll cover production and freight.

[GloriousRuse]

T8

Well, for the first time we have some real significant differences in how fronts are playing out. Up north the relatively tough terrain has made it harder for the Germans to blitz across the Rodina, but has also shielded them from serious counterattacks. The result is their panzers can still explode with a lot of potential...like this:



This often makes the north a more reactive front for the soviets, with a focus on building defensive lines just-so and trying to maximize the use of Swamps and Heavy Woods (at 8 MP base cost for poor roads, a special Dense setting that favors infantry over AFVs, and high defensive bonuses those can really break up an attack. It's one of the few places in the early years where it may actually be better to build strong positions rather than an extensive defense in depth. After all, you don't have much terrain to give, but what you do have is formidable.

As we approach Moscow, both sides are taking a breather. I honestly expected the panzers to be on the march again, and this is one of those terrifying moments where you know they've built up potential energy but there is little you can do about it other than try to hem them in. I'd usually say two weeks of relative non-violence is a gift, but Bobo has proven very capable at the explosive lunges that follow a logistics period, and which so historically accurately characterize the blitz.



In contrast, down near Bryansk we have a problem. The loss of the city means soon the rails will be up. followed by super depots and logistics build up. When that happens, this will quickly turn from a back and forth battle near the gap to a desperate defense of Orel. Reasoning it's best to fight while the fighting is good, another series of counterattacks work on those panzers I can find exposed. Everyone else gets to dig for life.



The south looks much like Moscow. The counterattacks last week apparently put the breaks on the drive, but this only makes me all the more wary of the potential for next week to be very dynamic. My one counterattack is foiled by Grossdeutchland and the Slovak mobile forces waiting in reserve, which is enough for me to see where this would be going if pursued in full. Instead, I set new lines along the Dnepr. This early in the war, tying to a river is a bit of a gamble. The Germans WILL make it over, and probably thrash your divisions in the process. And they will make it over with more gas left in the tank than you want, and with you in a predictable and easily known disposition. At the same time, those crossings will force the Germans to concentrate, so they can help keep "screening" sectors from advancing too quickly. Just don't call it wrong...they aren't going to stop a real offensive this early and excessive faith in their delaying and defensive properties is an excellent way to lose lots of troops (which Stalin could no doubt attest to).

[GloriousRuse]

T9

Remember where I said that panzers coming off a rest can be explosive? Right. No doubt the garrison in Vyazma would both agree with me and wonder why I didn’t put a heavier division there. Well, I didn’t really see them being THAT explosive. Bobo strikes again. Down in Ukraine the thrust was more predictable, but the constant casualties are making it hard to put together something coherent enough to stop a major thrust – particularly as in this fine weather the Germans can choose their point of penetration. At least up north the Germans are still grinding through the terrain…too bad it’s the one place I don’t have terrain to give.

None the less, this is all coming at a cost.

To the ongoing discussion in the axis thread (these turns are several behind for security), there is much talk about what the panzers can or cannot do with logistics. There may be a slight mathematical variance here or there, but the fundamental truth of logistics is apparent here: armies don't collapse in a day, a week, or even a month: not at this scale. Unit stocks get run low. Then the prioritization gets stiffer. Eventually down at the company and platoon level stuff starts getting cannibalized, people hook up tanks to tow-bars, someone borrows from the next unit over. And somehow it all keeps running, just in a manner that is basically cutting the guts out of the operational whole while the tactical leaders get it done. Reality can't be defied, but there is a surprising amount of flex...

Which is where we are now, with less than half of the panzerwaffe actually able to drive. Constant explosive drives on an increasingly rickety logistics base have not been kind to the Wehrmacht, particularly the panzerwaffe. Granted they have also not been kind to the Red Army, but this is boiling down to an OKH style strategic bet - can a successful '41 justify running the Wehrmacht hot?



Anyhow, might as well help that along. The 19th panzer is looking weak and strung out in regimental packets to cover the breakout. With the panzers committed, my need to maintain a strong general defense is lessened and I can converge locally. The 19th panzer is defeated in detail to cut off Vyazma. It won't stop a drive dead, it won't reclaim the city, but week by week my hope is that these body blows will start to tell.



Down south, the FoW is high, but a reading of the battle reports shows me that the 11th panzer division isn't really a division at all. I don't have the forces to "win" in the traditional sense, but the unit is simply too battered to stand up under pressure. Low on supply, heavily fatigued, and with only a handful of it's nominal strength actually able to fight the division simply melts away from positions it should have been able to hold.



Overall this latest drive has left me to decide to hold or abandon the Dnepr line cities...after some thought I decide to hold. Partially because of political considerations (VPs), but also because so long as I'm in those cities the Germans will really struggle to supply PG1. They will manage it, of course, but at an ever increasing cost in trucks, fallen out soldiers, and broken tracks. The fate of 100k more Russians is sealed.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Are combat results like that last one new in WITE2? As far as I remember in previous versions stuff like fatigue/supply/available elements went into calculating the final CV and outcome and it was only subsequent to that outcome that rout results were determined. I can't remember anything like that battle where a unit 'won' its battle but still routed.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Are combat results like that last one new in WITE2? As far as I remember in previous versions stuff like fatigue/supply/available elements went into calculating the final CV and outcome and it was only subsequent to that outcome that rout results were determined. I can't remember anything like that battle where a unit 'won' its battle but still routed.

the combat engine was completely rewritten for WiTE2.

I was looking at some WiTE1 AARs and its noticeable that you can still see Pzrs rout or retreat through multiple hexes with next to no damage (a concept that was added in one of the early .08 patches).

big things, low morale/exp or high fatigue make a unit vulnerable to really bad losses if it is forced back. The other, as above, if you run low on combat elements you can see a collapse even if the unit is notionally strong - it still has its heavy weapons, its support stuff etc but lacks infantry or tanks.

So if you really push an offensive, it can catch up with, especially as the wider logistics system means its very hard for the Germans in 1941 to bring up replacements (& esp replacement tanks)

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Thanks for the reply [:)]

I guess it is a matter of waiting to read the manual to work out how the new rules work.

[GloriousRuse]

T10

A turn that does not look that momentous (other than the collapse of the Dnepr in front of the Crimea), but one that has serious portents.

The panzers up north are being pulled back for either another thrust or a lateral shift, which means the western hill line near Leningrad will only have a week or two before it is breached. Some local counterattacks to reclaim good defensive terrain if the Germans failed to occupy. The north is slowly translating to an inch by inch fight and every inch counts. The Leningrad Air Command, you may notice, did not have a good day.



And in the center the fight near Orel and Vyazma has reached the point where it's either accept a die in place pocket or withdraw from the central terrain...if I had more forces I might very well take the DIP to buy the time, but I don't. The constant battering has prevented an effective build up, so a grudging withdrawal - but not before landing more body blows on the way out.



And down south, much the same, only on the east bank of the Dnepr. D-town will hold longer than history, but not much. I can't get the SW front pinned to the sea, so thoughts of relieving the city are given up in the sure knowledge the panzers haven't moved that far recently, which is usually a good sign they're getting ready to explode off the ropes hard. The attack below (against the freshly cut off panzer spearhead)is a good example of the type of attack that is carefully thrown in, knowing it will fail, but in this case knowing it will also drain supplies, fatigue, and potential movement out of key formations that won't be getting a delivery this week...



One other item of note for those watching at home. You may notice the air battles raging over these attacks - in WitE2 you have the option of toggling Ground Support on or off inside your turn and leaving it on or off for your opponent's turns, with your side's air force coming out to the fight if it is on. For the germans this is more of an operational decisions than a tactical one - the '41 LW isn't going to lose in the air unless a bunch of unprotected stukas get bounced, but the long term maintenance and operational losses of constant flight can end with the historical result of a tattered and barely functional force by winter, your best pilots having died in accidents on muddy airstrips. If you're willing to pay that price, air support can be a powerful tool.

For the soviets though, there is an immediate tactical problem. As we saw over Leningrad, if you outpace the range of your escorts and the Germans are flying, it's going to be butchery. Though if the germans have outrun their fighters, then as we saw in the center, 120 aircraft coming in to support the ground fight can make a big difference, or if it's like the south the aircraft can give a German formation a light working over even if the attack fails. The real knife's edge is where both sides have fighters in play. Your Migs are not going to win, they really aren't. But they might serve as an ablative shield that allows the ground attack aircraft to make it through...

[OccatorPilot]

I am currently reading Stahel's book on the '41/'42 winter campaign and one thing that strikes me from your interesting AAR are the relatively light losses suffered by the Soviets on the attack, even in the failed attack you highlight by the 40th Tank Division.

Looking at Stahel's book, he emphasizes the heavy casualties the Red Army takes on the attack due to the lack of expertise on the side of Junior Officers in the Red Army in the early war period, and due to local German counter attacks to confront Soviet breakthroughs

I read somewhere that with the current engine, damage suffered by a formation in a battle is not fully made visible in the immediate battle report, but that further negative effects owing to supply/morale/transportation checks will affect the unit. It would be interesting to see the state of 40th TD after this fight, is it still battle ready or not currently fit for frontline service?

What is your opinion about the damage that you see your units receive, both on the defense and on the attack?

[GloriousRuse]

Generally speaking, the “low cost” failed attacks you see are really ones where I’m deliberately launching harassing and probing attacks. Units will decide at certain ranges whether or not they want to keep committing to the business, and the “further out” they call it off, the less casualties for everyone. If you see a serious multi-division attack fail, initial casualties in the 8-15% range are common, and you can expect the same or up to double to be “Damaged” in the game engine which do not show as immediate losses (and which roughly translates to losing 40% of the Damaged element in addition to it no longer fighting).

Admittedly, at this point I’ve got eight games in the engine, so I have an ok sense of what to send for a probe - and I’ve learned that if you want to win a soviet attack, bring twice what you think you need, then bring more.

As for overall, there’s a pretty good chance I’ll hit the actual soviet losses in ‘41 (not that I’m thrilled about that in terms of what it means for who wins - the rains cannot come soon enough) and the Germans are burning bright to possibly even exceed their historical losses (though they are also outperforming their historical schedule it has to be said, something else I’m not thrilled about for what it says about the eventual victor).

[Erik Rutins]

Worth also noting that the better the leadership, the more the chance that a failing attack will be called off before it results in the heaviest losses, so early Soviet failed attack and retreats tend to be a bit more costly than most.

[GloriousRuse]

T11

The view from halfyway down.

As the first ten weeks of Germania Invictus start to wear off, it's a good time to look at the state of the overall war in terms of VPs and where it might go. Particularly as in six to weight weeks the mud season will be begin in earnest. It's also a good week to talk this as other than the disaster at Orienbaum, there was nut much in the way of unexpected occurences. What had been four to five division forts were abandoned as little two-fers, just enough to force a real assault - the relative flexibility of having a fort in place is useful at time, and life goes on.

So, as the behemoth rolls forward (at least the damn thing is slowing down) where do we stand?



My basic theory is that '41 plays out in three waves of potential VP for the Germans. The opening 4 weeks where it's a guarantee they'll take their targets, but maybe a few points shift here or there, the mid range targets in weeks 10-15 that they will mostly get but have a wide range of time bonuses that can happen, and then their reach goals for the season where they might pick up an extra city or two, but they also might fall a city or two short. Right now, Bobo is playing strong into the second phase, so despite not being across the safety line this could turn out badly for me.

In the north, he cleaned up everywhere ahead of schedule for 41 points - and worse, he might legitimately threaten Leningrad. This isn't WitE1 where Leningrad is by any means a given, so that is a very, very serious threat. Consider that the Germans need to gain 380 VP to get a decisive win in '42. They are "scheduled" historically to get 324 of those, leaving a gap of 56 points the heer never got to get across the line. Leningrad is 36 of those 56. So while the rewards for Bobo's excellent northern campaign so far have been modest in terms of VP, they still have the potential to unlock a whole lot of that final gap for victory...which is really what the Leningrad decision is all about. It's hard fighting, and maybe you think you can use those forces better elsewhere, but taking Leningrad is essentially the equivalent of the entire '41 campaign going 2 to 3 weeks ahead of schedule. Only Moscow lands a bigger blow of "unexpected" points and most Russians will fight to the death for Moscow...the fate of Leningrad as we go into the fall may very potentially determine the outcome of the game.

Along the Moscow Axis, Smolensk held out for the VPs so there are only 23 here, but it fell a little earlier than I would have liked. As a result I have to concede that Rzhev willl probably be an early threat, and Kalinin will also be in play. This is disheartening, as often it is possible to keep Kalinin off the front lines if the swamps near Smolensk can hold the Germans long enough. Even scarier, Moscow is still in play. At a whopping 66 points and serving as the national supply source that feeds the entire northern half of the map, pressure on Moscow almost always has to be answered - which pulls forces from elsewhere. And god forbid you lose it, because you probably just lost the game.

On the Guderian plan, we're still fighting in front of Orel. I'm cautiously optimistic that city can hold, but Kursk is effectively dead already - there's no way it's holding until week 20 with PG2 heading due east instead of coming down south; we just have to play it out. The cities alongs the Okra are also a major concern, as after Orel falls it is possible to make a lunge at Tula-Rzayhan-Tambov, all of which are never takens. So I expect to see 29 points here at a minimum, followed by a real chance for another 16. Ouch.

And then we go south. In my opinion Kiev and Odessa are doomed to fall significantly before their historical dates if the German player is dynamic, and Bobo certainly is, so those are and unfortunate but expected 32 to add to Lvov's 14. The real problem is that with the D-town line turned, D-town might hold past history but Zapo certainly won't, and Kharkov will also be hard pressed to be anything but a maximum bonus. Which means the fight at Stalino actually has a chance to end o time, Rostov is still on the cards, and Sevastopol is unfortunately possible...That being said, I am less concerned about Sevastopol's likely 36 points than Leningrad's. Sevastopol is assumed to fall as a pre-req for the axis. So a few months of a few weeks early is all the same in many ways - a sort of fatalistic acknowledgement that the 30 points don't matter so much as the 0-6, much as for Stalingrad.

Anyhow, rambling. Long story short, despite the low looking numbers, Bobo is in position to possibly push this into the low 600s this year, beating the German historical record. If he gets it into the mid 600s, it's basically all over except for the crying in '42. Lets hope we can keep that away at least...

[Blagrot]

I might be wrong but it looks like a lot fo your problems in the South came from the (south-east of) Lvov pocket - do you think you could have got most of those units out if you played a little differently? Similarly do you think there was more force you could have placed around Pskov to hold that a little longer? I'm slightly worried that this sort of 'perfect' German opening during the turns the Soviet players have no influence over will become standard rather than above-par just as they did in WitE1.

[GloriousRuse]

Regarding Pskov, in three other soviet games the fastest I’ve seen it fall is T5. In the three German games I’ve gotten it as early as T2 (player error) and as late as T5. The defense around Pskov really becomes a matter of how much you’re willing to risk an encirclement. Generally the less you gamble, the quicker Pskov falls. Having won one Leningrad campaign on the opposite side by essentially destroying an army on T3 that tried to hold that river line, I wasn’t in a gambling frame of mind...definitely not with Bobo and his extremely well handled panzers. The Pskov defense is definitely one of the areas where player decisions start counting on both sides, though as you might imagine if the Germans get a good kick off, it becomes much easier for them. In general, stronger openings for the Germans are going to leave the soviet player less early wiggle room, but it should be noted that unlike WitE1 it takes a bit more to get a strong opening going. We’ve had some very good WiTE1 players get stalled out in the opening six weeks...Bobo, to my misfortune but to the benefit of the crowd, is not apparently one of them.

Regarding the extended Lvov - there are some forces I could have gotten out, some that would have been trapped regardless. I made a mistake in thinking that with PG1 cut off and with a lot of it in contact and forced to start movement in a very narrow corridor they wouldn’t be able to make it. I was wrong. The flip side of this is that some pocketing is inevitable, at times even preferable. While losing units never helps, there is the reality that especially in the first ten to twelve weeks, Russian POWs are going to be a thing. I think the larger issue than an extra corps or two that could have been gotten out is that not only did he make the pocket, he managed to keep heading east at great speed at the same time. Even one or two more weeks of delay could have made the battle on the Dnepr line a five or six week affair (I’ve seen it happen), which would have been well worth a dead corps or even a dead army. The Germans really need to kill a lot of Russians or make a lot of progress to stay competitive. When they manage to do both...well, as you can see, it’s not pretty. In general in the south I vastly underestimated the initial pace of the panzers, and I paid for it until I could build up enough strength to start wearing them down.

[Blagrot]

In the South I was mostly thinking those extra troops could have plugged the space on the Dnepr that the Wehrmacht found but it's good to know it was primarily delibrate choice and a trade-off rather than an inevitablity of the game that got those troops captured [:D] . Since I didn't say it before either I really love the fact a good counter-attack can mess up over stretched Panzers, i'll probably be a little over aggressive with those in the first few games just for the sheer joy of breaking my opponenets toys in 1941 for a change [;)]