OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Man, Alanshu, your words were uncalled for and unkind. Jeff has a seven-year-old son whose immunity is compromised; so he's unusually vulnerable. I hope you'll apologize.

[Anachro]

This thread is getting a little too political, with tempers rising and name-calling. I suggest everyone cool it a little bit and stick to discussing useful info, analysis, and facts as they become available. For instance, here is one very important, completely verified factoid:

1. The best away to avoid Covid-19 is to practice social distancing and self-isolation by playing lots and lots of WitP:AE in the comfort of your own home office. In fact, try finding another opponent and starting a new PBEM while this all blows over.

[Canoerebel]

I can hope for a China/South Korea outcome because: (1) our healthcare system is likely the best in the world; (2) we had two months more notice than China had; (3) we began taking drastic measures much earlier in the "exponential" phase than China did [we're only about 10 days in, and we're already taking major steps and that will accelerate]; (4) we have the benefit of knowing what worked elsewhere and what didn't; (5) the warm season is arriving, and there's evidence the virus can't survive at above 86 degrees.

Even if we have something 13x China, we're still in the range of a normal flu season. 13x China? If we exceed that, I'd be shocked - but even then it be 1/375th of some of the wild-eyed projections that are being floated in here and by the media.

China's pandemic is now doubling at a rate of about once every 2.19 years. New York's once every two days is almost certainly going to flatten out, probably in a month or so.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

[JohnDillworth]

Not sure we have the best health care system in the world. We absolutely squandered any notice we had. In those 3 weeks we tested less than 500 people, and didn't produce many test kits. The feds still forbid NY state to issue our own tests even though we have thousands of them. We are still wasting time. What "major" steps are we taking? Everything we are doing is private. The Federal Government is taking what major steps precisely? A travel ban to prevent what? The virus is here. What are the major steps? Banning domestic air travel, banning large groups, banning travel, banning gatherings? no, the Feds have called for none of this. They seem much more concerned about the economy than the medical part of this

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure we have the best health care system in the world. We absolutely squandered any notice we had. In those 3 weeks we tested less than 500 people, and didn't produce many test kits. The feds still forbid NY state to issue our own tests even though we have thousands of them. We are still wasting time. What "major" steps are we taking? Everything we are doing is private. The Federal Government is taking what major steps precisely? A travel ban to prevent what? The virus is here. What are the major steps? Banning domestic air travel, banning large groups, banning travel, banning gatherings? no, the Feds have called for none of this. They seem much more concerned about the economy than the medical part of this

Last night on TV a commentator showed on her cell phone the information about testing that the CDC was posting on its website. For all of the USA on March 11th, the CDC did 8 tests! Yes eight! And the info for March 10 was 0 tests! The Administration only recently changed from having CDC do all the tests to letting private labs do it, but it did not have any info on how many were being done at private labs. The two big lab corporations would only say they are still "gearing up for it because they had no prior notice to get ready for testing".

This seems to indicate that the first few weeks were indeed wasted in expectation the disease would not spread or would go away soon because the weather was getting warmer. Not very encouraging ...

[spence]

In an article that speaks about COVID-19 I learned that the active part of the virus is a length of RNA. The article also stated that it is possible to "track" when individuals were infected by determining which version of COVID-19 they were infected with. Apparently one or another of the "genes" (not sure if they are called genes for RNA) changes (mutates) about every 15 days. Anybody got any clue how that compares to an ordinary virus rate of mutation?

(The thought of multiple mutations of the virus is not comforting to me)

[MakeeLearn]

Live Coronavirus Map Used to Spread Malware
12,Mar 20

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/03/liv ... d-malware/

"Cybercriminals constantly latch on to news items that captivate the public’s attention, but usually they do so by sensationalizing the topic or spreading misinformation about it. Recently, however, cybercrooks have started disseminating real-time, accurate information about global infection rates tied to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic in a bid to infect computers with malicious software."

"In one scheme, an interactive dashboard of Coronavirus infections and deaths produced by Johns Hopkins University is being used in malicious Web sites (and possibly spam emails) to spread password-stealing malware."

[Anachro]

Yup, so if you access that dashboard (as I have already many times), go to the actual Hopkins website for it and not some third party.

[Bearcat2]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure we have the best health care system in the world. We absolutely squandered any notice we had. In those 3 weeks we tested less than 500 people, and didn't produce many test kits. The feds still forbid NY state to issue our own tests even though we have thousands of them. We are still wasting time. What "major" steps are we taking? Everything we are doing is private. The Federal Government is taking what major steps precisely? A travel ban to prevent what? The virus is here. What are the major steps? Banning domestic air travel, banning large groups, banning travel, banning gatherings? no, the Feds have called for none of this. They seem much more concerned about the economy than the medical part of this

Last night on TV a commentator showed on her cell phone the information about testing that the CDC was posting on its website. For all of the USA on March 11th, the CDC did 8 tests! Yes eight! And the info for March 10 was 0 tests! The Administration only recently changed from having CDC do all the tests to letting private labs do it, but it did not have any info on how many were being done at private labs. The two big lab corporations would only say they are still "gearing up for it because they had no prior notice to get ready for testing".

This seems to indicate that the first few weeks were indeed wasted in expectation the disease would not spread or would go away soon because the weather was getting warmer. Not very encouraging ...

The stock market has definitely made me ill; might as well get Coronawhatever and put me out of my misery. I insured most of my accounts so they could never lose money; but if the insurance company goes under

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

This thread is getting a little too political, with tempers rising and name-calling. I suggest everyone cool it a little bit and stick to discussing useful info, analysis, and facts as they become available. For instance, here is one very important, completely verified factoid:

1. The best away to avoid Covid-19 is to practice social distancing and self-isolation by playing lots and lots of WitP:AE in the comfort of your own home office. In fact, try finding another opponent and starting a new PBEM while this all blows over.

Good advice, maybe I will take it. I have not played a PBEM game for 8 years.

[Anachro]

Latest on COVID-19 from UCSF's top infection disease researchers, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19 - March 10, 2020

At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.

We in the US are currently where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different (Their population is older than ours). 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu. This assumes no drug is found effective and made available. The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.

Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did

Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms. The most common presentation was a one week prodrome of muscle aches, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of shortness of breath. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases.

1. Virus can last on surfaces up to 24 hours depending on surface type, but still no consensus on this
2. The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.

[JohnDillworth]

Last night on TV a commentator showed on her cell phone the information about testing that the CDC was posting on its website. For all of the USA on March 11th, the CDC did 8 tests! Yes eight! And the info for March 10 was 0 tests! The Administration only recently changed from having CDC do all the tests to letting private labs do it, but it did not have any info on how many were being done at private labs. The two big lab corporations would only say they are still "gearing up for it because they had no prior notice to get ready for testing".

This seems to indicate that the first few weeks were indeed wasted in expectation the disease would not spread or would go away soon because the weather was getting warmer. Not very encouraging ...

I'm afraid I'd have to agreed. We seem to have sh*t the bed and wasted precious time on wishful thinking. Sorry about the occasional politics but I feel our federal government is failing us and I blame lack of deceive leadership. I was not a fan of Ronald Regan, and he profoundly failed us in a previous epidemic (I'm a 60 year old man from NYC who buried a few friends during the last plague) but Ronnie did have the common touch. I suspect all things being equal his speech from the White House last night would have been reassuring. I hold, in my hand, a small, well worn book of FDR's fireside chats. This will be my bedtime reading tonight.

[mind_messing]

Very likely true, but what's the accessibility for it like across the population?

It best the best is worth nothing if you've a large section of the population that will avoid it for the financial costs that it may or may not involve.

I admire your optimism, but I think it's misplaced.

China has embarked on a very serious set of counter-measures that seem to be showing results. There doesn't seem to be the will to go quite that far yet in most of Europe, but the scales seem to be tipping.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can hope for a China/South Korea outcome because: (1) our healthcare system is likely the best in the world; (2) we had two months more notice than China had; (3) we began taking drastic measures much earlier in the "exponential" phase than China did [we're only about 10 days in, and we're already taking major steps and that will accelerate]; (4) we have the benefit of knowing what worked elsewhere and what didn't; (5) the warm season is arriving, and there's evidence the virus can't survive at above 86 degrees.

Even if we have something 13x China, we're still in the range of a normal flu season. 13x China? If we exceed that, I'd be shocked - but even then it be 1/375th of some of the wild-eyed projections that are being floated in here and by the media.

China's pandemic is now doubling at a rate of about once every 219 years. New York's once every two days is almost certainly going to flatten out, probably in a month or so.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Very likely true, but what's the accessibility for it like across the population? It best the best is worth nothing if you've a large section of the population that will avoid it for the financial costs that it may or may not involve

Around 90% of the US population has some form of health insurance/health coverage. Accessibility is not the issue and moreover, is most likely not even a big concern for the majority of infected populations. Acute care hospital beds are a very small fraction of the total population the world over (I can't remember what the number was in the UK when I saw it a week or two ago, but it was in the range of 1k-10k beds for a population of 60 million); this is the same regardless of if you are in the USA, Canada, the UK, or elsewhere. Luckily, for the large majority of cases, acute care is not needed and most of the time the healthcare needs of a COVID-19 infection wont rise above self-isolating in one's own home, resting, and waiting it out.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Very likely true, but what's the accessibility for it like across the population? It best the best is worth nothing if you've a large section of the population that will avoid it for the financial costs that it may or may not involve

Around 90% of the US population has some form of health insurance/health coverage. Accessibility is not the issue and moreover, is most likely not even a big concern for the majority of infected populations. Acute care hospital beds are a very small fraction of the total population the world over (I can't remember what the number was in the UK when I saw it a week or two ago, but it was in the range of 1k-10k beds for a population of 60 million); this is the same regardless of if you are in the USA, Canada, the UK, or elsewhere. Luckily, for the large majority of cases, acute care is not needed and most of the time the healthcare needs of a COVID-19 infection wont rise above self-isolating in one's own home, resting, and waiting it out.

That 10% is still 30 million people.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

The stock market has definitely made me ill; might as well get Coronawhatever and put me out of my misery. I insured most of my accounts so they could never lose money; but if the insurance company goes under

Easy now. Unless you need to cash in your stocks, you should be able to wait it out for the rest of the year and expect that they will rise again when this pandemic fades. That is my plan. [:)]
The fly in the ointment is not the stock going down, but if I should (for any reason) pass away that set of investments would have to be cashed in to pay the deferred taxes on it (my tax-deferred retirement account). That would be a shame for my beneficiaries. Another reason for me to be careful for a while.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

The stock market has definitely made me ill; might as well get Coronawhatever and put me out of my misery. I insured most of my accounts so they could never lose money; but if the insurance company goes under

Easy now. Unless you need to cash in your stocks, you should be able to wait it out for the rest of the year and expect that they will rise again when this pandemic fades. That is my plan. [:)]
The fly in the ointment is not the stock going down, but if I should (for any reason) pass away that set of investments would have to be cashed in to pay the deferred taxes on it (my tax-deferred retirement account). That would be a shame for my beneficiaries. Another reason for me to be careful for a while.

That is where a life insurance policy would come in handy.

[pontiouspilot]

With the brilliant testing in US I'm surprised the rest of world have not banned US travelers!! (I don't personally think such bans work well.) I fear we have only seen tip of the iceberg from down south. Alberta with 4.3 million people tested 1000 people in last 2 days....the USA 11,000 tests.

I just got back from Phoenix and no-one was taking the threat seriously. I watched 4 cops helping haul a lady in obvious respiratory distress (on oxygen) out of the airport. They wore no masks, no gloves and had no cordon of any kind.

[Canoerebel]

Every person in the USA has access to healthcare and knows it. You go to an emergency room, you're treated. If you need admission, you're admitted. So everybody goes there, in times of need, instead of to a doctor's office. Whether you can pay or not, you get great healthcare. And you get it fast.

[Canoerebel]

I've noticed the numerous open or veiled comments about our current President and what he has or hasn't done.

In 2009, during the H1N1 outbreak, our President didn't take action until 1,000 died in an epidemic that claimed 14,000 lives. Nobody made an issue of it on either side of the fence, including the loyal opposition.

In 2020, the President took some actions regarding China, some four weeks ago, and was roundly criticized by the loyal opposition for taking such draconian measures. Now, blessed with hindsight, he should've taken more draconian measures. But none of the loyal opposition has acknowledged that he was right, in at least that one thing.

I don't have television, a smart phone, and don't do social media, so I didn't hear excerpts from the President's address last night, until this afternoon. What I heard was well done.

For the record, I did not vote for our current President, so my current thoughts aren't "tainted" by any bias in his favor.

The main difference between 2009 and 2020? I think it's the prevalence of social media. I think folks are losing their minds due to the flood of information and misinformation and the loss of historical perspective.

And Reuters was right. There is a divide in the way people - good, smart well-meaning people - perceive this.