Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[paullus99]

Well, part of the downside would be finding an Allied player who is masochistic enough to put up with it.

[Cheesesteak]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Well, part of the downside would be finding an Allied player who is masochistic enough to put up with it.

I'd been under the impression that this was somewhere between RA and Scenario 2 in terms of balance, with more "toys" than Scen 2 but an unforgiving economy. Either way, your carrier victory was well done.

[Anachro]

I have to be honest, I didn't know what this mod was specifically until John told me he wanted to play it. I still don't really know the difference between it, BTS Lite, and Reluctant Admiral (which is the mod John originally wanted to play before switching to BTS). From what I gather, and I could be wrong as the mod website is confusing and not very clear, BTS is a more extreme boost to Japan's OOB than RA. I'm not too sure.

That said, I wouldn't call myself a masochist for playing it. It makes '42, which is a very fun year in my opinion for the Allies, even more precarious and nail-biting and, at times, can feel like you're endlessly on your toes thanks to John raiding all over the place. Nonetheless, it becomes more "even" in '43. Still, the OOB advantages Japan gets really makes its ability to use interior lines to defend its boundaries quite strong. If you go back to the theoretical screen in the previous page of Japanese carrier strength, that theoretical force combined with CV-capable Jacks/Georges can well make it extremely difficult to make headway in a '44/'45 offensive. It might be a bit too much in my opinion. Thankfully (or I guess hopefully since I can lose my CVs still), I've made a dent in that theoretical Japanese CV strength.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2
Small, as in the starting factory is a size 8. Who knows how much it has been expanded.

Well, we can parse this out. 21 months of gameplay elapsed x 8= 168 max build to date with a size 8 factory. Based on plane losses alone, he's producing at least 27.8/month. I'd venture his factories are at 35(0)+.

Does he start with a pool of Ritas in the OOB, Anachro?

[Anachro]

He starts with none in the pool, but can start building a G5N2 factory right away, G5N3's have an arrival date of 12/42. G8N1 Rita, which is the first variant, has an arrival date of 9/44. The G8N2 is 4/45. I'd imagine he is investing in these. I haven't seen a Liz in awhile in-game.



That G8N1 and G8N2 sure are nice planes.

[JohnDillworth]

Well that is the theory. Ones wonders just how challenged the economy is in practice. One definition of "challenged" may come from the same dictionary as the definition of "small"

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


4 engine aircraft were pretty sophisticated things for the time and only a couple of economies succeeded at it. Germany dabble but never really got good enough at it and had different strategic needs. Japan had an economy closer to that of Italy, not Germany and certainly not Britain or the US. Production of 4 engine strategic bombers was well beyond the capability of Japan. As you point out, the handful they produced were woefully inadequate. To produce over a thousand of them is far beyond fantasy. It is magical thinking and even that thinking would never have happened. Japan never envisioned needing a strategic bomber. For what? Bombing the US factory base? I suspect John doesn't like the allies having weapons that Japan doesn't have. Again, it is a fantasy mod so I guess anything goes

This isn't accurate, I'm afraid, John; a lot of common places, not necessarily grounded

[Naskra]

I learned from Nasty scenarios that the Rita is quite dangerous in a kamikaze role.

[ITAKLinus]

Ok.

I think there might be a heavy basic mistake in the assessment of Japanese industrial capacity in this MOD.

A couple of months ago I was giving advice to an Italian player on the Italian forum who had troubles in grasping Japanese economy.

Now, he was in April 42 (first week of it) playing BTS-Heavy. I guess something changes from Lite but the description given in the website is the same regarding economy.



Well. In the website it's stated that there are "far less initial stocks". It's somehow a lie.

I don't use tracker and I play only Scen1. In my last two games as Japan, I begun to do standardized monthly checks on Excel. I have them for each month, registering stocks, production, gain/loss over last month, gain/loss over 7th dec and changes in percentage.

I compared them with the guy's industrial screens.

Please note that he conquered the historical perimeter plus useless Pacific islands, plus Aleutinans. No industrial base from those conquests. He got stuck in China conquering just the plains between Hankow and Nanyang.
NOTHING MORE.
He has taken many oilfields badly damaged as far as I have understood (and seen from industrial screen).
Little to none HI expansion.


What I did understand analysing his industrial screens is that:
- Japan begins with 3-400k less fuel in the initial stock
- There are way more HI/LI/OIL in Japanese hands
- Supplies are the same


To make a comparison of the magnitude of the "more HI" thing. I compared the data of guy's game to mine of my 2 Japanese PBEMs.
Results:
- Conquering the WHOLE India (bar Karachi), plus China, netted me roughly the same amount of his HIs. (16.000)
- Conquering EVERY oilfield basically intact (bar Miri which starts with 150 damage) and repairing Miri netted me roughly 31.500-32.000 OIL production [from the industrial screen]. He got MORE than 32.000 without China, India, Miri repaired and with many oilfields trashed. Potential production, including "disabled" was well above 38.000.
- Conquering the WHOLE Australia (bar Sidney and Tasmania) netted me way less HI. Don't make me speak about LI and OIL because I would simply start crying in a corner.
- Running the whole freaking IJN boosted by dozzilions of ships for 30 days per months, apparently, still makes possible to have a nice positive FUEL production. I am in red whenever I decide to run continuous operations. My rule of thumb after I complete my intended strategic goals is to have the whole surface fleet disbanded 20 days per month at minimum and the KB disbanded 15 days per month at minimum. He didn't even optimised cargo classes. And he was gaining A LOT of fuel (+ 15.000 accordingly to his tracker. Dunno what that amount means since I don't use tracker).



Now, it's true that more HIs, more pilots and more ships imply a much higher fuel consumption. But I haven't seen that in his game.
It's true that I have done very tough fights in both the PBEMs for which I recorded economical info. But I had also conquered a lot.
It's true that this is a fantasy MOD while I'm a "scen1 purist". But, at least in his case, the entire "much lower initial stock" thing is a plain lie.



I might be completely wrong under every possible point of view, since the guy was playing BTS-H, but I am fairly sure of what I say about it. I mean, he posted his economy so there isn't much to doubt about.

[Anachro]

Dec. 7 1941 Industry Screen - Scen 1 vs BTS 5.7



Dec. 7 1941 Supply/Fuel/Resources - Scen 1 vs BTS 5.7



Mod quote:

Supply and fuel reserves start at a much reduced state. The Japanese MUST take the DEI as fast as possible!

Doesn't seem like the Japanese supply/fuel starting situation is significantly worse than in Scenario 1.

[Canoerebel]

I have zero experience reading Japanese industry, but it looks like Supply is down a small amount, fuel is down 10%, and everything else is elevated (in many cases substantially). Is that right?

[Anachro]

The better comparison might be vanilla DBB-C, which the BTS mod is based off of, but I just looked at those and they are the same as in Scenario 1. Seems to be John was a bit bombastic in his claims in the mod page about the initial dire situation of Japan's fuel/supply. But like you, CR, I'm not an expert. Maybe a lot of that supply/fuel isn't on the home islands?

[ITAKLinus]

Apparently, whatever version you are playing is the same the Italian guy I mentioned above is playing in terms of initial stocks.


For comparison.

Here is a screen at 01/01/1943. I still had to get part of India (I still had to go beyond the line of emergency reinforcements activation) and to repair few oilfields around in China and India.



When I'll be back to Europe I can post the updated economical situation at Jun-43 or something like that but I guess it's sufficient this screen to show what I meant in my post.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have zero experience reading Japanese industry, but it looks like Supply is down a small amount, fuel is down 10%, and everything else is elevated (in many cases substantially). Is that right?

He also seems to start with greater potential oil-producing abilities in the mod, but I'm not sure exactly where. In the first image you can see 2200 disabled oil production. Is that supposed to simulate synthetic oil technology?

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

The better comparison might be vanilla DBB-C, which the BTS mod is based off of, but I just looked at those and they are the same as in Scenario 1. Seems to be John was a bit bombastic in his claims in the mod page about the initial dire situation of Japan's fuel/supply. But like you, CR, I'm not an expert. Maybe a lot of that supply/fuel isn't on the home islands?

Doesn't matter at all. Only stuff which are loaded on ships are not shown but, by definition, they aren't many. In few of my economical checks I got quite huge jumps in OIL or FUEL but it was because I tend to ship between 150k and 200k OIL or FUEL per-time so they weren't counted.

So, there is little to none margin for that to influence the amounts.




Also, I got extremely surprised by OIL production. He got above 32.000 while you see how much I do have with the afromentioned conquests and everything repaired. He was in the range of ABOVE 38.000 counting disabled production.

[Anachro]

It seems in the BTS mod, Japan gets the option to boost domestic oil production that's not in the base game. Particularly, in Manchuria and Japan to a lesser degree. Looking to the first images I posted above, Japan also starts with greater initial oil production in its initial possessions.

Am I reading this correct? It seems to invalidate the claims made on the mod page about Japan needing to secure DEI ASAP due to a critical fuel/supply situation, which was supposedly the cost/justification for Japan's greatly expanded OOB and war-making abilities.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have zero experience reading Japanese industry, but it looks like Supply is down a small amount, fuel is down 10%, and everything else is elevated (in many cases substantially). Is that right?

He also seems to start with greater potential oil-producing abilities in the mod, but I'm not sure exactly where. In the first image you can see 2200 disabled oil production. Is that supposed to simulate synthetic oil technology?

Sorry to keep posting in your AAR Anachro, but I suggest you to also check industrial centers around the map at 7-DEC since I firmly believe that there are way more oilfields, LI and HI on the map in places which are going to be conquered.


Believe me or not, getting India netted me a lot of HIs. And I expanded Batavia, Singapore, Soerabaja, Shangai, Canton and HK to 100 HI points each in the game for which I posted the economical data. It's quite a lot of HI (and supplies) if you think about that. If you add India... Well I should be far beyond what the guy got with just the historical perimeter (I think the only "additional" industrial center compared to the historical perimeter he got has been Noumea with its 20 LIs).


If somebody without industrial expansion and without China and without India got my same HI production it means something is wrong somewhere.



I don't recall on the spot data from the game in which I got Australia. I guess I'll check tomorrow when I go back from the field.

[Anachro]

Culprit seems to be that BTS expands oil, etc. production across the board such as below. I'd imagine this is the same for HI/LI, etc.

BTS


DBB-C

[paullus99]

Okay, those numbers just don't make sense at all....in the 1940s, there was no "technological" way to increase oil production to the scope laid out in those numbers. Even if you "boosted" production - and what does that even mean? you'd actually be spending more of your industrial output (and oil) drilling new wells and building infrastructure than can come out of the ground.

Now it all makes sense, because John runs his fleet into the ground - and expands factories far beyond what would be feasible...and claims that there is somehow a "deficit" of oil?

Oh yeah, and if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Elessar2]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Worst case, I hope that John III at least will let someone else pick up his game from the Japan side. He's still got a good CV force -- just not the overpowering fantasy version he had originally with this mod. I'll bet an experienced, tenacious Japanese player could still make life really difficult for Anachro.

I think a realistic reconceptualization of the IJN could be an interesting set of scenarios, but using this timeline's ~1935 as a starting point means some tough choices. You sure as hey aren't going to get the Yamatos AND several shiny new fleet CV's.