From: Ottawa, Canada
Does not compute. France does not get to decide whether Vichy is installed or not. Orm & I are describing scenarios where Germany (or Italy, if they are the ones to occupy Paris, gamey as that might be) have for whatever reason not installed Vichy. Under those circumstances the French may wish to surrender. How is that not a discussion on when to surrender France?
- France can surrender only if at least half of its printed factory stacks (8 out of 15) are occupied.
- If the Axis take Paris, they will usually also occupy Lille, Metz, & Rouen, which is enough factories out to surrender.
- If the Axis do not take Paris, they will need to occupy at least three other factory stacks somewhere in France, which can be rather difficult (not impossible).
As long as France has lost 8 out of 15 factory stacks and (in the case where Paris is occupied) the Axis skip the installation of Vichy, the French AIO has to look at the reinforcements coming, see if they can form a redoubt somewhere, and hold out for another 1-2 turns. If so, they can delay surrendering for at least one more turn; if not, they should probably consider proceeding with the surrender.
Also, in any case, if it is the last turn of a year and it looks like the Germans will be in a position to conquer France sometime in the following year, the French should consider surrendering then to preserve their future force pool(s).