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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO

 
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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/15/2007 12:15:32 AM   
Incy

 

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As russia I'm not overly concerned about a '40 barbarossa, provided the western allies player is not asleep at the table. Germany simply lacks the volume to do enough damage in '40. To make matters worse, Germany will actally loose production (good bye ~6 res LL and annual additions for the minors) and I will gain (+0,5 PM and ~6 res LL), so the tiny german force will sonn loose steam, unable to kill as much as I build.

This is especially true for a jan/feb or mar/apr barbarossa. At that time the germans are extremely weak, and they won't get very far before my reinforcements /rail units arrive in strenght because of the bad weather. AND much of the crack german forces start in France.

If it starts any later, it MIGHT be dangerous, but only if I'm asleep at the steering wheel and let the germans build up at the border without countering with a minimum of mobile reserve myself. A smallish mobile reserve plus some strategically placed reinforcements and rail moves will slow the germans enough that my massive production and reorged reseves will soon stem the tide.

(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 61
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/15/2007 11:47:38 PM   
trees

 

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France First is basically putting a big bet on the first few weather die rolls. A few storm clouds and the Axis timetable is wrecked, though possibly not beyond repair. I hope the AI considers an occasional attempt at a France First strategy, and subsequent exploitation of success. But I think the idea will succeed a fair amount less than 50% of the time.

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 62
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/15/2007 11:56:04 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: trees

France First is basically putting a big bet on the first few weather die rolls. A few storm clouds and the Axis timetable is wrecked, though possibly not beyond repair. I hope the AI considers an occasional attempt at a France First strategy, and subsequent exploitation of success. But I think the idea will succeed a fair amount less than 50% of the time.


Choice of game options is important too in regards of the chances of success of a France 39.
The No ZoC on surprise is especially efficient (too much indeed) for this.

(in reply to trees)
Post #: 63
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 12:29:28 AM   
Jimm


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I must say I'm glad I'm not writing this AI.

Given the depth of possible what-if-if-not-then possibilities and considering the amount of discussion on this thread , I fear the challanges of designing an effective offensive AI for WIF as somewhere around the "heroic" level.

More wind to your sails Steve say I!





(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 64
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 1:42:50 AM   
coregames


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jimm

I must say I'm glad I'm not writing this AI.

Given the depth of possible what-if-if-not-then possibilities and considering the amount of discussion on this thread , I fear the challanges of designing an effective offensive AI for WIF as somewhere around the "heroic" level.

More wind to your sails Steve say I!



It will be a big task, but I don't think any of us expect the AI to play as well as an experienced WiF player. What I am hoping for is that it will be able to play a passable Barbarossa or Guadal Canal, where the strategic objectives are simplified.

_____________________________

"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker

Keith Henderson

(in reply to Jimm)
Post #: 65
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 6:25:24 PM   
composer99


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy

As russia I'm not overly concerned about a '40 barbarossa, provided the western allies player is not asleep at the table. Germany simply lacks the volume to do enough damage in '40. To make matters worse, Germany will actally loose production (good bye ~6 res LL and annual additions for the minors) and I will gain (+0,5 PM and ~6 res LL), so the tiny german force will sonn loose steam, unable to kill as much as I build.

This is especially true for a jan/feb or mar/apr barbarossa. At that time the germans are extremely weak, and they won't get very far before my reinforcements /rail units arrive in strenght because of the bad weather. AND much of the crack german forces start in France.

If it starts any later, it MIGHT be dangerous, but only if I'm asleep at the steering wheel and let the germans build up at the border without countering with a minimum of mobile reserve myself. A smallish mobile reserve plus some strategically placed reinforcements and rail moves will slow the germans enough that my massive production and reorged reseves will soon stem the tide.


The Western Allies do not have to be "asleep at the wheel" in '39 to fail to defend against a France-first strategy (the pre-req for a '40 Barb). They need merely be unlucky (lots of good weather and maybe a bad search roll or two). France and CW (and the Dutch/Belgian minors) do not have adequate forces in 1939 to beat off the German army, their air forces are inadequate when stacked against the Luftwaffe, and the Poles do not have adequate forces to press the attack (nor would they want to, given the production boost that would give Germany).

It is quite easy for Germany to attack Denmark in such a way that they leave no coastal hexes for the CW to land on. The Germans can probably just ignore the Netherlands and go straight into Belgium, where Allied tricky-dicky-doo tactics are less likely to cause serious delays (and given just a little luck with sailing a div to sea on a cruiser and not getting sunk, the Germans can play some of that game themselves).

The lack of Russian units on the ground (the reserves arrive face-down, after all!) means that the Germans will have little trouble in 1940 making good on their resource losses from breaking the pact.

Furthermore, Russian production may well indeed be massively boosted, but the units that can arrive straight away are pure crap and the good stuff (such as it is in 1940) takes a very long time to come into play. Probably too long to make a difference.

Also do not discount the Axis minors - the extra units they bring, even with their puny 1940 forces, will quite adequately allow the Germans to stretch the Soviet lines beyond breaking point in summer '40.

Finally, how will a mobile reserve help you against the German build-up? If it's meant to be out of reach of German Stukas during the surprise impulse, it will do no good at helping stuff the border in 1940.

As the examples of '40 Barbs discussed here demonstrate, they are genuinely devastating to the Soviet Union. I should add here that in a Cyberboard WiF game I'm playing, my Russian ally is faced with the threat of a 1940 Barb. Andrew is one of the finer WiF players in the game, but his opinion (expressed in person while he was home from Boston a month ago) was that if we couldn't stuff the border through the summer of '40, we were doomed. The USSR declared war on Japan to be able to build its MILs straightaway to prevent this.

If Germany decides it wants to attempt a '40 Barb, I suspect the best way to prevent it is for the USSR to go to war with Japan and start building out its MILs (for stuffing) right off the bat, when they will actually be useful, rather than waiting until Germany declares war to become active.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 66
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 6:41:09 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
Furthermore, Russian production may well indeed be massively boosted, but the units that can arrive straight away are pure crap and the good stuff (such as it is in 1940) takes a very long time to come into play. Probably too long to make a difference.


In our game, the russian production was 22 in M/J but it dropped down to 11 in J/A and 9 after that. The rails lines for LL were cut in J/A for the North and Persia was aligned to Italy in J/A (which was a fluke)..... but even if Persia is still opened, the lines would have been cut in S/O when Japan attacked the CW. Nevertheless, the key in the barb 40 is that russia has so many holes, that it looses a lot of factories that can not be railed in time.
Also, Germany will reach the Asian map quickly (we did in J/A) and may then, avoid making attacks in Europe which remove 0.25 to the Russian production multiplier.

So, I am not sure that Russia can maintain a ,assive production for very long in 1940... contrary from what I have read of 1941.

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 67
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 6:52:58 PM   
Incy

 

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By asleep at the table I mean "not doing anything to tie up germans/do damage" while all them germans are in the east fighting.

Allies can surely loose france very early from a france first strategy, due to no fault (other than poor luck) on the allied side.
But if they proceed to do nothing while the axis redeploys east and launches a '40 barbarossa they are indeed asleep!!

Earlier than may/june a barbarossa will not get very far simply due to weather. During summer, some defence has to be mounted, that is why russia needs a small mobile reserve IF the germans start massing at the border. A mobile reserve doesn't need to be very large, just enough to slow the advance down a bit through ZOC defence, a few hero cities, etc.

In early 40, germany will simply lack the volume (both in air, land and HQs) to kill enough russian units. So if weather or a screen of mobile units can slow the germans down enough until reserves/production/bad weather arrives, the russian army can very quickly grow equally large as the german one. This effectively prevents germany from inflicting havy casualties or gaining huge chunks of land from that point on (perhaps until summer '42, where pure volume on both sides again allows sufficient loss rates to mount, even on a stalemated front).

Incy

(in reply to composer99)
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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 7:00:36 PM   
Incy

 

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This sounds like a M/J 40 attack, which is very different from a J/F or M/A attack. It requires that germany is allowed to seriously build up the border while Stalin is at the Datcha sipping Vodka. If germany stands heavy at the border, Russia MUST maintain a mobile reserve so that it can slow the advance enough that reinforcements can come in and factories can go out.

Italian Persia in early 40 also seems part of the problem here, witch seems to reinforce that wallies might have been asleep at the wheel?


quote:

ORIGINAL: lavisj


quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
Furthermore, Russian production may well indeed be massively boosted, but the units that can arrive straight away are pure crap and the good stuff (such as it is in 1940) takes a very long time to come into play. Probably too long to make a difference.


In our game, the russian production was 22 in M/J but it dropped down to 11 in J/A and 9 after that. The rails lines for LL were cut in J/A for the North and Persia was aligned to Italy in J/A (which was a fluke)..... but even if Persia is still opened, the lines would have been cut in S/O when Japan attacked the CW. Nevertheless, the key in the barb 40 is that russia has so many holes, that it looses a lot of factories that can not be railed in time.
Also, Germany will reach the Asian map quickly (we did in J/A) and may then, avoid making attacks in Europe which remove 0.25 to the Russian production multiplier.

So, I am not sure that Russia can maintain a ,assive production for very long in 1940... contrary from what I have read of 1941.


(in reply to lavisj)
Post #: 69
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 8:02:53 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy
This sounds like a M/J 40 attack, which is very different from a J/F or M/A attack. It requires that germany is allowed to seriously build up the border while Stalin is at the Datcha sipping Vodka. If germany stands heavy at the border, Russia MUST maintain a mobile reserve so that it can slow the advance enough that reinforcements can come in and factories can go out.

Italian Persia in early 40 also seems part of the problem here, witch seems to reinforce that wallies might have been asleep at the wheel?


I do not believe an attack can happen before M/J because Poland still has to be conquered, and in our case, that almost did not happen on time. I would actually have liked a couple more impulses before I had to go in Russia......
Also, the German massing in the East is necessary to the conquest of Polan in the winter, and this is what confused our russian player. He did not realise it until the lasts of the "Big Sticks" railed to Poland (Rundstedt, the last armors and planes), early J/F.
Now I must admit that our Russian player did not put up the best defense possible, but I am also sure I did not put the best possible attack either.......

As for Persia, yes the CW was asleep for a little bit.


< Message edited by lavisj -- 3/16/2007 8:49:16 PM >

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 70
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 9:05:14 PM   
composer99


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy

By asleep at the table I mean "not doing anything to tie up germans/do damage" while all them germans are in the east fighting.

Allies can surely loose france very early from a france first strategy, due to no fault (other than poor luck) on the allied side.
But if they proceed to do nothing while the axis redeploys east and launches a '40 barbarossa they are indeed asleep!!

Earlier than may/june a barbarossa will not get very far simply due to weather. During summer, some defence has to be mounted, that is why russia needs a small mobile reserve IF the germans start massing at the border. A mobile reserve doesn't need to be very large, just enough to slow the advance down a bit through ZOC defence, a few hero cities, etc.

In early 40, germany will simply lack the volume (both in air, land and HQs) to kill enough russian units. So if weather or a screen of mobile units can slow the germans down enough until reserves/production/bad weather arrives, the russian army can very quickly grow equally large as the german one. This effectively prevents germany from inflicting havy casualties or gaining huge chunks of land from that point on (perhaps until summer '42, where pure volume on both sides again allows sufficient loss rates to mount, even on a stalemated front).

Incy


But without the continental base in France, how are the Allies supposed to tie up enough German units? The CW, even if it cranks out amphibs from the start of the game, won't have any available until 1941, which severely limits its invasion capability even for tactical raids, as does the lack of CW marines until 1941. Paratroopers by themselves (which are expensive and won't appear until after summer 1940, anyway) aren't really up to the task.

This lack of force pool options and of sea lift constrains the Western Allies. CW has only divisions to invade with, in effect, until 1941 (since the PARAS won't arrive until the '40 summer season is over, or in J/A if you built them ahead in S/O 39). That might do against Sardinia or Iraq/Persia on a surprise impulse, but it won't anywhere else.

Aside from pinprick strategic air raids (the strat bombers suffering from the same time constraints as PARAs), there isn't much the CW can do against Germany in 1940 once France falls. Even if it has retained a beachhead somewhere, all the Germans have to do is screen it - the CW doesn't have the ability to get ashore in force until the amphs and marines arrive. Similar constraints operate against the war vs. Italy (except that the CW can probably assemble adequate forces, even in 1940, to knock out Italy's aligned minors in Africa).

Letting Italy get at the Middle East may be the result of an Allied error of judgement, but it might also be the result of the same military constraints the Allies operate under in '39-'40 - whenever I play Italy I always set up strongly against Egypt, and in RL games I almost never fail to secure it (either on my own or with some German help), and it's usually because the CW doesn't have enough units in the first year of the war to meet all its commitments, and a fair chunk of those units get destroyed in France (the critical theatre). When there's 1-2 TERR and maybe a real unit defending all of Egypt, even the inept Italian army, when deployed in force, can usually manage to overcome them.

Finally, as lavisj points out, the Germans aren't likely to launch an offensive against the USSR until the summer in any case - Poland (usually) needs finishing off first, and they will want to deny the USSR the delaying options that bad weather opens up.

I don't think it's impossible to defend against a 1940 Barb (in the unlikely event that the Axis get the chance to launch one with France already defeated), but it is very difficult indeed, and it will fall almost entirely on the USSR's shoulders. A 1941 Barb is much better from the Allied point of view not because the balance of forces on the Eastern front is better (in most cases it's worse) but because there are enough Russian bodies to throw in front of the advancing panzers to give the factories time to rail out and the CW will, unless it was particularly negligent, have a couple of amphibs to use in tactical raids (or invasions of Sicily, Greece, or other great staging areas), an army to raid with, and a small but growing armada of strat bombers to menace Axis production and oil.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 71
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 10:12:51 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy
By asleep at the table I mean "not doing anything to tie up germans/do damage" while all them germans are in the east fighting.

Allies can surely loose france very early from a france first strategy, due to no fault (other than poor luck) on the allied side.
But if they proceed to do nothing while the axis redeploys east and launches a '40 barbarossa they are indeed asleep!!

Earlier than may/june a barbarossa will not get very far simply due to weather. During summer, some defence has to be mounted, that is why russia needs a small mobile reserve IF the germans start massing at the border. A mobile reserve doesn't need to be very large, just enough to slow the advance down a bit through ZOC defence, a few hero cities, etc.

In early 40, germany will simply lack the volume (both in air, land and HQs) to kill enough russian units. So if weather or a screen of mobile units can slow the germans down enough until reserves/production/bad weather arrives, the russian army can very quickly grow equally large as the german one. This effectively prevents germany from inflicting havy casualties or gaining huge chunks of land from that point on (perhaps until summer '42, where pure volume on both sides again allows sufficient loss rates to mount, even on a stalemated front).

Incy


But without the continental base in France, how are the Allies supposed to tie up enough German units? The CW, even if it cranks out amphibs from the start of the game, won't have any available until 1941, which severely limits its invasion capability even for tactical raids, as does the lack of CW marines until 1941. Paratroopers by themselves (which are expensive and won't appear until after summer 1940, anyway) aren't really up to the task.

This lack of force pool options and of sea lift constrains the Western Allies. CW has only divisions to invade with, in effect, until 1941 (since the PARAS won't arrive until the '40 summer season is over, or in J/A if you built them ahead in S/O 39). That might do against Sardinia or Iraq/Persia on a surprise impulse, but it won't anywhere else.

Aside from pinprick strategic air raids (the strat bombers suffering from the same time constraints as PARAs), there isn't much the CW can do against Germany in 1940 once France falls. Even if it has retained a beachhead somewhere, all the Germans have to do is screen it - the CW doesn't have the ability to get ashore in force until the amphs and marines arrive. Similar constraints operate against the war vs. Italy (except that the CW can probably assemble adequate forces, even in 1940, to knock out Italy's aligned minors in Africa).

Letting Italy get at the Middle East may be the result of an Allied error of judgement, but it might also be the result of the same military constraints the Allies operate under in '39-'40 - whenever I play Italy I always set up strongly against Egypt, and in RL games I almost never fail to secure it (either on my own or with some German help), and it's usually because the CW doesn't have enough units in the first year of the war to meet all its commitments, and a fair chunk of those units get destroyed in France (the critical theatre). When there's 1-2 TERR and maybe a real unit defending all of Egypt, even the inept Italian army, when deployed in force, can usually manage to overcome them.

Finally, as lavisj points out, the Germans aren't likely to launch an offensive against the USSR until the summer in any case - Poland (usually) needs finishing off first, and they will want to deny the USSR the delaying options that bad weather opens up.

I don't think it's impossible to defend against a 1940 Barb (in the unlikely event that the Axis get the chance to launch one with France already defeated), but it is very difficult indeed, and it will fall almost entirely on the USSR's shoulders. A 1941 Barb is much better from the Allied point of view not because the balance of forces on the Eastern front is better (in most cases it's worse) but because there are enough Russian bodies to throw in front of the advancing panzers to give the factories time to rail out and the CW will, unless it was particularly negligent, have a couple of amphibs to use in tactical raids (or invasions of Sicily, Greece, or other great staging areas), an army to raid with, and a small but growing armada of strat bombers to menace Axis production and oil.

Your points are well made. And without having given this a lot of thought, a few consequences of a France first & 1940 Barbarossa would seem to be true:

1 - Italy can build pretty much whatever it likes, but Germany is constrained to builds that support the Barbarossa campaign. So there won't be any threat of an invasion of Great Britain, an attack on Spain/Gibraltar, or a significant submarine warfare effort against the CW. In response, the CW should be able to divert production to other units (non-convoy protection) and deploy it forces for offensive (instead of defensive) actions. I think of this as requiring the CW player to change his normal mindset and strip away many of the elements of a 'normal' CW build and deployment strategy from the very start of the war.

2 - The CW navy is substantial if it does not have to be especailly concerned about protecting convoys and Great Britain. It should be used aggressively in the Med against Italy, without particular concern about losses. As much of a threat as possible should be put together for invasions with divisions and para units, with massive sea support for those units both on attack and defense. The threat of invasion alone will force some German units to remain in the west. If the Axis slips up and permits a small invasion, so much the better. Every impulse, the CW should be looking for opportunities to attack and deplete the Axis strength in the Med and western Europe. That should be pratically his only criterion when making decisions.

Perhaps a France first and 1940 Barbarossa is a 'winning' strategy, but I suspect that WIF is robust enough that the the Allied players have countermeasures at their disposal to mitigate the 'certainty' of that success. Of course, if the weather and combat rolls are heavily biased towards the Axis, then things are rosy indeed for Adolf & Benito - but that is always the case in WIF. A more likely explanation for the success of FF & 1940 Barb is that: (a) its novelty demands creative thinking on the part of the Allies, rather than the 'standard' decision making, and (b) all games favor the attacker/player with the initative, with defense requiring much greater skill.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 72
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/16/2007 11:17:31 PM   
lavisj

 

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Steve,

Germany can still maintain a decent sub warfare by building 2-3 BP of subs a turn from the get go (maybee less: 1-2 earlier) as suggested by Patrice. This is what I did and had a very decent sub force in Brest to attack convoys in N/D, J/F and M/A when the bad weather forces the slow down of the Russian campaign.

Jerome

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 73
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/17/2007 12:28:38 AM   
Froonp


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quote:

Perhaps a France first and 1940 Barbarossa is a 'winning' strategy, but I suspect that WIF is robust enough that the the Allied players have countermeasures at their disposal to mitigate the 'certainty' of that success. Of course, if the weather and combat rolls are heavily biased towards the Axis, then things are rosy indeed for Adolf & Benito - but that is always the case in WIF. A more likely explanation for the success of FF & 1940 Barb is that: (a) its novelty demands creative thinking on the part of the Allies, rather than the 'standard' decision making, and (b) all games favor the attacker/player with the initative, with defense requiring much greater skill.

About the France first, of France 39, I'd repeat what Jérôme said : To be successful, you need to have conquered France in N/D 39, don't forget this.
I our last game, using the No ZoC on surprise, and with a bad French setup (French units setup heavily in the Maginot & Alps), with a green French player, France resisted until J/F 40.
Also, I would like to stress again out how unbalancing the No ZoC on surprise rule can be, especially combined with a France first strategy.

So, my conclusion is that against a good French setup, without the No ZoC on surprise optional, and with a decent French Player, conquering France by N/D 39 is by no way a sure thing.

I mean that this is not a 'winning' strategy, there are combos that are more deadly, and more unbalancing in that game, such as the 1941 Axis 'Kitchen Sink' all out assault on Russia.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 74
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/17/2007 1:45:32 AM   
trees

 

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The France First strategy is one that can easily be studied solitaire; just set up the Western Europe countries + Poland and give it a try, several times even. France and England, setting up before Germany, should always be prepared for it, with all CW lift ready to land the BEF (with the MECH in this case, otherwise I usually let that guard beaches in the UK), maybe with some TRS re-orged to go and get Wavell from Egypt and other miscellaneous help from the Empire. An automatic French response is to use the surprise impulse to try and flip Rundstedt ... one bit of luck on either of those two dice and the whole strategy starts to sink. I did that once and the German player never recovered for the rest of the game, he should have resigned and played the USA instead. Or the German spearhead set up in the Belgian/Dutch/German border hex can be vulnerable in clear terrain. The more you play with it the more you'll see how dependent on the dice it is, not only the weather but ground strikes and a few key battles such as the attack on Brussels.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 75
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/17/2007 5:27:48 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: trees
The more you play with it the more you'll see how dependent on the dice it is, not only the weather but ground strikes and a few key battles such as the attack on Brussels.


Yes, exactly, this is why I will not try it again even though it was successfull this time.

(in reply to trees)
Post #: 76
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/18/2007 12:10:12 AM   
Incy

 

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If USSR allows the entire wehrmach to deploy on the border in may/june 40 without countering it in some way, of course they die, and of course they get what they deserve.

But russia should not allow this. Assuming russia is doing this is like assuming the french would deploy on the spanish border, you don't realy need a brilliant german to defeat such a (lack of) defence. If Germany doesn't take Poland by nov/dec it's standard tactic for russia to send some troops to the border, both to weaken the german hand (a bad diceroll in poland can easily mean russia can break the pack because of polish manouvering placing ZOC on germans), and to cover the eventuality that germany gets any ideas.
If germany builds up more than strictly neccesary in Poland, russia must counter with a smaller, preferably mobile force.
Such a force can easily be used to throw off the entire german game plan (let germany forsake other fronts and build up in jan/feb + mar/apr, then move say 5 corps, rail 1, and rebase in 3 air, for about 10 extra garrision in a single impulse. Such a force doesn't need to be deployed ON the border (where it is vulnerable to german DOW after a quick german reinforcement + aligning minors surge), but can be placed in safety 5-6 hexes away from the border, backed by a rear HQ

Remember, germany basically needs a 4-1 garrission to attack, so russia can very quickly block any chance germany has at attacking, if it so chooses. The trick is to keep a minimum reserve of 1/3-1/4 of the strenght germany keeps at/near the border. Add in rebased air, and the germans might very quickly be unable to break the pact. The same force can alternatively defend/screen the motherland if stuffing the border seems to risky. But threthening to stuff the border SHOULD discourage germany from any sort of big buildup, because russia CAN throw in units faster than germany, at a much lower cost in lost opportunity elsewhere. A big buildup in Poland is an invitation to a wasted and idle summer 40!

OK, but let's assume russaia can't or won't stuff the border (after all, there IS a significant risk..)
In a 40 barbarossa, russia can afford to let the nothern front stand completely undefended (or very lightly defended, say a stack of reserves in Minsk plus 2 mobile units that stay outside air range). Germany will still have to send a HQ and at least 5-6 units north, or else russia can move some units north and cheaply shut down the northen front (because with less than 6-7 units, germany simply lacks the volume to kill a single doublestack + cover it's flanks&supply)
Geramany also needs to keep CW honest, and that should tie up at lest 6-7 other units of some quality (2 in denmark and 4 in France/Belgium?). So germany is down about 12 corps and 1 HQ. That's almost the entire german starting army, especially if a few losses in Poland/France are counted in.
So the german offence consists of 2 real HQ, the german reserves, any reinforcements that have been built and arrived, and a few rumanians (HQ antoniescu is a reserve!). The finns are easily countered in the north by BEF, and in the south by 2 corps (reserves?) in Leningrad. Some will slip through Kareliaand join up with the northern offence, sure, but will not reach anything very vulnerable anytime very soon.

The main german force will not be very impressive, maybe 2 HQ, 12-14 real units and another 6-8 weaker losstakers/screening units, plus probably 5-6 bombers and 4-5 FTR. That's ALMOST 2 killstacks, but assumes the ENTIRE available army was ready on the border at the time of DOW. More likely, another 5-10 corps and significant air will have to rail in and be available only for the second turn, leaving just 1 killstack in the south, too.

But let's assume a german strenght of about 20 corps, russia should at least have a force of 6-7 corps + 1 HQ plus some air being in range of flying in by the time of the attack. There should also be some reinforcements that just arrived, say 3 corps arriving in cities along/behind the Dniepr. Russia should be able to deploy a screen vs Rumania (assuming germany doesn't start there) with the mobile forces. The screen is anchored in Odessa (which is empty but gets at least 1 reserve!). Other reserves go in Leningrad, Minsk and in Dnep/Kiev area, + possibly 1 or 2 in key cities on the northern route.

Russia will possibly deploy a single speedbump in the south, but not neccesarily. with 10 mobile corps russia can hold the rumanian border 1-2 impulses, and mount a mobile ZOC-defence across Ukraine. Russia will deploy strong MECH/ARM stacks just outside axis FTR/Stuka cover, and rebase it's own FTR to cover the stacks against the few axis longrange bombers. At the same time it might use the HQ to reorg 3 reserves, but then again, maybe it's better spent trying to spend any key units that are flipped/retreated. Anyays, this defence should see very few losses the firsr ~3 impulses, until russia withdraws behind the dniepr and makes a stand. Starting impulse 4 (or 5?), Germany can start attacking over dniepr. But germany lacks enough units to make more than 2 attacks/impulse, and russia still has plenty of units to envelop/ZOC any breach across the dnipr (at least if it reverts to ZOC defence elswhere). Exactly where things end up is difficult to tell, but realistically, germany will be barely across a crumbling Dniepr line in the south, and probably near the dniepr in the north too (but with a weak force). 4-5 factories should be railed out, and probably Odessa and maybe 1 more lost. Russia recieves reinforcements, can reorg 4-5 corps that were railed in (from wherever they were) and bulds for well more than 20 BP, probably half of that MIL.

So now, russia should have about 5 corps that railed in last turn, possibly a few that walked in (say 1), a few surviving reserves (say 3), a few MIL that arrived reasonably nearby (say 2), reinforcements (say 4), and maybe some corps that were spiralled (say 1) = 16 extra corps available for service, probably including Zhukov.

On the german side we assume very few losses(say 1), and that they didn't have the unfortune to mess up in Minsk/Odessa/other big battle (1 flopped attack could easily stop the whole offensive way short of what is assumed above. some units (say 4) are flipped behind the front, and the reinforcements start waaaaay behind the battle. In the north, a few units were split off to take the baltics/screen Leningrad, but this may have been compensated by a few finns sqeezing through. So in the north the unit count is about 7 units (mostly unopposed by real forces), and in the south it's about 10 units + 5 weak units, with another ~5 in the rear.

Then you add about 8-10 surviving russians to the 16 new arrivals, russia has a sligth advantage in numbers, but the axis will even this out when it gets the rearguard into the battle. Still, russia SHOULD be able to survive over the summer without a major collapse, and the massive production should stop any axis dreams over the long winter turns. Russia will churn out units at an impressive speed, and without the help of armor and air in winter, russia will hardly take losses, while the german position will be very, very stretched. I think.



quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99


quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy

By asleep at the table I mean "not doing anything to tie up germans/do damage" while all them germans are in the east fighting.

Allies can surely loose france very early from a france first strategy, due to no fault (other than poor luck) on the allied side.
But if they proceed to do nothing while the axis redeploys east and launches a '40 barbarossa they are indeed asleep!!

Earlier than may/june a barbarossa will not get very far simply due to weather. During summer, some defence has to be mounted, that is why russia needs a small mobile reserve IF the germans start massing at the border. A mobile reserve doesn't need to be very large, just enough to slow the advance down a bit through ZOC defence, a few hero cities, etc.

In early 40, germany will simply lack the volume (both in air, land and HQs) to kill enough russian units. So if weather or a screen of mobile units can slow the germans down enough until reserves/production/bad weather arrives, the russian army can very quickly grow equally large as the german one. This effectively prevents germany from inflicting havy casualties or gaining huge chunks of land from that point on (perhaps until summer '42, where pure volume on both sides again allows sufficient loss rates to mount, even on a stalemated front).

Incy


But without the continental base in France, how are the Allies supposed to tie up enough German units? The CW, even if it cranks out amphibs from the start of the game, won't have any available until 1941, which severely limits its invasion capability even for tactical raids, as does the lack of CW marines until 1941. Paratroopers by themselves (which are expensive and won't appear until after summer 1940, anyway) aren't really up to the task.

This lack of force pool options and of sea lift constrains the Western Allies. CW has only divisions to invade with, in effect, until 1941 (since the PARAS won't arrive until the '40 summer season is over, or in J/A if you built them ahead in S/O 39). That might do against Sardinia or Iraq/Persia on a surprise impulse, but it won't anywhere else.

Aside from pinprick strategic air raids (the strat bombers suffering from the same time constraints as PARAs), there isn't much the CW can do against Germany in 1940 once France falls. Even if it has retained a beachhead somewhere, all the Germans have to do is screen it - the CW doesn't have the ability to get ashore in force until the amphs and marines arrive. Similar constraints operate against the war vs. Italy (except that the CW can probably assemble adequate forces, even in 1940, to knock out Italy's aligned minors in Africa).

Letting Italy get at the Middle East may be the result of an Allied error of judgement, but it might also be the result of the same military constraints the Allies operate under in '39-'40 - whenever I play Italy I always set up strongly against Egypt, and in RL games I almost never fail to secure it (either on my own or with some German help), and it's usually because the CW doesn't have enough units in the first year of the war to meet all its commitments, and a fair chunk of those units get destroyed in France (the critical theatre). When there's 1-2 TERR and maybe a real unit defending all of Egypt, even the inept Italian army, when deployed in force, can usually manage to overcome them.

Finally, as lavisj points out, the Germans aren't likely to launch an offensive against the USSR until the summer in any case - Poland (usually) needs finishing off first, and they will want to deny the USSR the delaying options that bad weather opens up.

I don't think it's impossible to defend against a 1940 Barb (in the unlikely event that the Axis get the chance to launch one with France already defeated), but it is very difficult indeed, and it will fall almost entirely on the USSR's shoulders. A 1941 Barb is much better from the Allied point of view not because the balance of forces on the Eastern front is better (in most cases it's worse) but because there are enough Russian bodies to throw in front of the advancing panzers to give the factories time to rail out and the CW will, unless it was particularly negligent, have a couple of amphibs to use in tactical raids (or invasions of Sicily, Greece, or other great staging areas), an army to raid with, and a small but growing armada of strat bombers to menace Axis production and oil.


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Post #: 77
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/18/2007 8:23:44 AM   
composer99


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I'm not exactly convinced. There's a lot of shoulds and oughts in that argument - not a bad thing necessarily, but conjecture quite rightly plays second fiddle to empirical data.

Someone on this forum (Lavisj?) has played a '40 Barb as both the USSR and as Germany. Both resulted in thorough devastation for the USSR. I'm looking at a '40 Barb in my PBeM game (thankfully as the CW), so we'll see how things work out, but it doesn't look good if the Germans can break the pact (conversely, if the USSR can break the pact and declare war first, we can keep the Finns out, which makes things marginally better).

Any other '40 Barb experiences anyone can share?

I think, though, that the most important thing we all need to remember is how unlikely a '40 Barb is (compared to the equally/more deadly '41 all-out Barb). The Axis need to have exceptional luck in at least three areas to pull it off: weather, turn length, and pact chit draws. If any one of these are not with the Axis, a '40 Barb is pretty well right out (as they will end up spending most of the summer fighting in France).

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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/18/2007 3:06:58 PM   
lavisj

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
Someone on this forum (Lavisj?) has played a '40 Barb as both the USSR and as Germany. Both resulted in thorough devastation for the USSR. I'm looking at a '40 Barb in my PBeM game (thankfully as the CW), so we'll see how


Not me.... it was Lars (Lorymin)

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Post #: 79
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/18/2007 4:50:20 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

Any other '40 Barb experiences anyone can share?

I was in a game where the German tried a 40 Barb, without conquering France.

He made a Poland 39, Yugoslavia 39, aligned Rumania & Hungary, screened Belgium & France (he had his fortifications put in the West) and DoWed Russia in M/J 40. Broad headlines were :

M/J 40 : Germany (Land Offensive) reached Kiev, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Vitebsk & Murmansk. CW conquered Tripoli & Libya, and conquered Sardinia.
J/A 40 : Germany (Land Offensive) reached Rostov, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan.
S/O 40 : Germany aligned Bulgaria.
N/D 40 : Germany conquered Kalinin and reached Stavropol.
J/F 41 : Germany took Moscow and Stavropol.
M/A 41 : Germany took Yaroslavl and reached the Asia Map. CW paradroped in Sicily and invaded Salerno.
M/J 41 : France assaulted & invaded near Genoa.
J/A 41 : CW conquered Naples & Italy, Germany took Kuybyshev. Germany DoW and conquered incompletely the Netherlands.
S/O 41 : USA DoW Japan. Germany DoW and conquered incompletely Belgium.
J/F 42 : Germany failed Land Offensive in Belgium.
M/A 42 : CW invaded southern Denmark & paradroped in Dubrovnik (Yugoslavia) & Zara. Germany attacked in the Caucasus mountains.
M/J 42 : USA at global War. USA Land Offensive in Belgium, took Antwerp, Brussels and liberated Belgium. Germany attacked in the Caucasus mountains.
J/A 42 : CW took Copenhagen & liberated Denmark, Germany conquered Tiflis (Caucasus)which was retaken immediately by USSR, USSR launched a Land Offensive in the north near Penza.
S/O 42 : CW invaded Liepaja (Latvia), paradroped in Gdynia (Poland), USA invaded south of Gdynia (Poland). France entered Yugoslavia through CW-controlled ports in the Adriatic. CW re-conquered Lithuania. Germany began to retire from Russia threatened from having his supply line cut in Poland in the north and in Ukraine by Partisans.
J/F 43 : Germany retired hurriedly from Russia, with the Red Army in hot pursuit. CW re-conquered Estonia. France liberated Belgrade & Yugoslavia.
M/A 43 : Rundstedt’s Army pocketed & destroyed near Voronezh. CW conquered Helsinki & Finland. USA failed Land Offensive in eastern Germany from Polish Corridor. USSR liberated Moscow & Rostov. Germany began to counter attack USA in the Polish Corridor.
M/J 43 : USSR liberated Tula, Kharkov, Kursk, Stalino, Vitebsk & Minsk. Germany pushed the USA back to the sea in the Polish Corridor. Germany was nearly out of Russia, excepted Von Leeb’s Army in Ukraine around Dnepropetrovsk. France conquered Tirana & Albania
J/A 43 : USSR entered Poland (Vilna), liberated Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Archangelsk, Pskov. Germany was completely out of Russia.
S/O 43 : CW Invaded Kolberg (Germany). USA failed Land Offensive in Liege (Belgium), paradroped in Breslau (4 German saved oil were neutralized) & conquered Konigsberg. USSR Land Offensive in Rumania, conquered Bucharest & Rumania. USSR entered Hungary.
N/D 43 : Russia liberated Leningrad.
M/A 44 : CW conquered Stettin. France conquered Sofia & Bulgaria. Russia Land Offensive south of Warsaw.
M/J 44 : USSR liberated Warsaw (open city) & Poland. CW Land Offensive conquered Kiel. France conquered Budapest & Hungary (racing with USSR). USA Land Offensive in the Netherlands pocketed Amsterdam.
J/A 44 : Germany re-took Breslau from US Paras. 4 Saved Oils recuperated. 2 consecutives USA Land Offensive in the Netherlands. France Land Offensive in western Germany. Germany counter-offensive in the Netherlands. USA swept.
S/O 44 : France conquered Vienna.
N/D 44 : Germany had no more Oil. USSR had one hex on Berlin (Land Offensive under Blizzard).
J/F 45 : USA Super Combined Offensive. USSR Conquered Berlin.
M/A 45 : France conquered Dusseldorf (Land Offensive). CW conquered Munich (Land Offensive) & Hamburg. Germany surrenders to USSR.

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 80
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - GRAND STRATEGY AIO - 3/20/2007 1:00:28 AM   
coregames


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Any other '40 Barb experiences anyone can share?



In one game, we were most of the way through Spain. Seeing this, the Russian player deliberately denuded his garrison to tempt us into a war, in an effort to save Gibralter. We were doing so well we took him up on his offer and declared war in Sep/Oct '40, trying to have our cake and eat it too. At first the going was slow, but we brought in reserves as they were freed up in Spain. At the height of our Russian expansion, we were two hexes from Moscow, and almost aligned Turkey with para, div and transported units on the coast. Though we never conquered Spain or took Gibralter (although we did get Suez), a dominant Japan helped us win the game convincingly. It helped that the CW became so obsessed with keeping Gibralter that he seemed to ignore everything else.

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Post #: 81
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/5/2007 8:49:47 PM   
coregames


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In our current game, I noticed an issue that may be relevant to the AI. The German player had a marine adjacent to Dover, and the CW left the hex open. Germany seemed poised to attack Spain, but now is trying everything he can to invade without Gibralter (6 corp currently in the UK).

After a moment of fear, we realized that the Axis builds had been geared towards a Gibralter strategy, and that the Germans alone can't take out the UK before the US comes into the war with access to the Med. With inappropriate forces for Barbarossa, the Germans may just have been too clever.

The German AI should not get suckered into crossing the Channel at the expense of a larger strategic plan. I'm sure this principle applies in lots of situations, for all major powers. Could the AI have something like a 'trap smeller'? Exploiting an apparent oversight on the part of the enemy isn't necessarily a good move.


< Message edited by coregames -- 4/5/2007 8:54:27 PM >


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Post #: 82
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/5/2007 10:05:57 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: coregames

In our current game, I noticed an issue that may be relevant to the AI. The German player had a marine adjacent to Dover, and the CW left the hex open. Germany seemed poised to attack Spain, but now is trying everything he can to invade without Gibralter (6 corp currently in the UK).

After a moment of fear, we realized that the Axis builds had been geared towards a Gibralter strategy, and that the Germans alone can't take out the UK before the US comes into the war with access to the Med. With inappropriate forces for Barbarossa, the Germans may just have been too clever.

The German AI should not get suckered into crossing the Channel at the expense of a larger strategic plan. I'm sure this principle applies in lots of situations, for all major powers. Could the AI have something like a 'trap smeller'? Exploiting an apparent oversight on the part of the enemy isn't necessarily a good move.


This isn't really a concern for me, since basically the AIO will evaluate moves as good, bad, or possibly good/bad. For example, if you can overrun a disorganized air unit, then do it because it is basically always good (unless something even juicier is available). Crossing into Britain falls into the possible category, and is evaluated in terms of strategic, operational, and tactical considerations.

Invading Britain requires a lot of operational elements, and though I will try to have the AIO hedge its bets through its choice of builds (if for no other reason than to keep the CW nervous), the AIO will not go all-out for SeaLion unless a substantial number of those elements are in place.

What I am much more concerned about, is related to the question you posed: not changing the strategic plan unless a strong motivation (positive or negative) is present. In particular, I am worried about oscilating between two strategic plans as die rolls come up good or bad from turn to turn. If happy things happen in the Med for the Axis, then Gibraltar looks inviting, but after a couple of bad die rolls, the Axis AIO abandons that plan and switches to an earliest possible Barbarossa. Then the CW strips Gibraltar of some defensive units, and now the AIO is working on attacking Gibraltar again. Maintaining a focus in the changing world is hard for human players and I expect it to be equally difficult for the AIO.



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Post #: 83
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/5/2007 11:54:17 PM   
composer99


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I don't know about that so much - my CW in a real-life game is staring an invasion of England in the face, and I'd say I'm being pretty focused about it.

Of course it's really only the side or power(s) on the attack who have to worry about focus. But on the whole it is disastrous for humans and AI alike to allow themselves to be swung from one grand plan to another, especially in a game like WiF where production strategy is so critical to the success of the military strategy.

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Post #: 84
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/6/2007 1:10:48 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
I don't know about that so much - my CW in a real-life game is staring an invasion of England in the face, and I'd say I'm being pretty focused about it.

Of course it's really only the side or power(s) on the attack who have to worry about focus. But on the whole it is disastrous for humans and AI alike to allow themselves to be swung from one grand plan to another, especially in a game like WiF where production strategy is so critical to the success of the military strategy.

Yes, but ...

Given that a strategic plan might change under special circumstances (continuing to do the same thing with the expectation of getting a different outcome is one definition of insanity), then the AIO has to define what those special circumstances are. And it is possible to keep revising that definition finer and finer with more details, until "a straw breaks the camel's back". I can do simple stuff (e.g., do not change a strategic plan if it has been changed previously within the last 2 turns) to prevent the removal of the straw from swinging the decision back in the other direction, but I would prefer to have something more elegant rather than crude.

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Post #: 85
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/6/2007 5:39:44 AM   
composer99


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I would guess that the German AIO should make Barbarossa (whether 41 or 42) its "baseline" strategic plan, Barb being comparatively easier to prepare and build for than the others.

That way, if the Germans start the game off wanting to do something else but circumstances suggest that following through would not only fail but leave the Germans badly off on all fronts, they can at least use their other resources in the BoA or the Med to delay or harass the Western Allies and at least go try to get a defence line vs. the USSR that is somewhere in Russian territory instead of on the Vistula.

If Germany initially attempts a Sealion, but decides in advance that it is not going to work, it could switch over easily to attempt a Gib without too much effort (all those NAVs and Marines can come in handy invading the Rock and bypassing Spanish defence lines), and if even that looks questionable, it can switch to Barb later. Likewise, a Germany prepping for Barbarossa could switch to fight for a 1941 Gibraltar if it spots a weakness it can exploit (especially if CW has had trouble keeping convoys protected).

The only plan that Germany should probably not consider switching to in the middle of things is a Sealion, since it will not be able to churn out the sealift, if it hasn't from the start of the game, to have it ready in time to invade England before it is too late (i.e. 1942).

Was that at all helpful?

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Post #: 86
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/6/2007 5:44:19 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Yes, it was helpful.

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RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/7/2007 12:51:08 AM   
CBoehm

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The only plan that Germany should probably not consider switching to in the middle of things is a Sealion, since it will not be able to churn out the sealift, if it hasn't from the start of the game, to have it ready in time to invade England before it is too late (i.e. 1942).

Was that at all helpful?


well ...I have to some extend disagree!

Now while the above might be good for the ai, since I guess you cannot really expect to be "good" at evaluating the balance of the various strategies.... I DO think that a successful sealion will almost always come from improvision NOT from planning since if the CW player see that Ge is building towards a Sealion its really very easy to prevent (mind you not the actual landing itself ...) Basically if CW makes sure to keep UK proporly garrisoned with landunits and AC its pretty useless to invade. (see CWai thread for post regarding how to defend UK from sealion, Im pretty sure I posted something there... )

In that sense I do often find that the threat of a sealion ei. having build an extra TRN in 39 ei. tying up CW units in UK while u go through Spain and crush Suez etc. ...is much more effective than actually carrying it through.

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 88
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/7/2007 5:46:30 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CBoehm
quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
The only plan that Germany should probably not consider switching to in the middle of things is a Sealion, since it will not be able to churn out the sealift, if it hasn't from the start of the game, to have it ready in time to invade England before it is too late (i.e. 1942).

Was that at all helpful?


well ...I have to some extend disagree!

Now while the above might be good for the ai, since I guess you cannot really expect to be "good" at evaluating the balance of the various strategies.... I DO think that a successful sealion will almost always come from improvision NOT from planning since if the CW player see that Ge is building towards a Sealion its really very easy to prevent (mind you not the actual landing itself ...) Basically if CW makes sure to keep UK proporly garrisoned with landunits and AC its pretty useless to invade. (see CWai thread for post regarding how to defend UK from sealion, Im pretty sure I posted something there... )

In that sense I do often find that the threat of a sealion ei. having build an extra TRN in 39 ei. tying up CW units in UK while u go through Spain and crush Suez etc. ...is much more effective than actually carrying it through.

The advice was to not switch TO a Sealion since it requires so much preparation. Your advice that it is possible to switch FROM a Sealion strategy (or to merely threaten to launch the invasion) is not contratdictory.

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Post #: 89
RE: AI for MWiF - Germany - 4/9/2007 2:14:48 PM   
CBoehm

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: CBoehm
quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99
The only plan that Germany should probably not consider switching to in the middle of things is a Sealion, since it will not be able to churn out the sealift, if it hasn't from the start of the game, to have it ready in time to invade England before it is too late (i.e. 1942).

Was that at all helpful?


My point was that a successfull sealion almost always comes from improvisation ..ei. switching TO a sealion ...ei. if CW has been quick to reinforce Afrika in 39 ...and end up getting the BEF annihilated in France ...then a quick switch to a sealion ...perhaps even a landing in UK BEFORE fall of france can be successfull. However a deliberate strategy of "now I will build towards and force through a sealion" will almost always fail if CW knows what he is doing.
well ...I have to some extend disagree!

Now while the above might be good for the ai, since I guess you cannot really expect to be "good" at evaluating the balance of the various strategies.... I DO think that a successful sealion will almost always come from improvision NOT from planning since if the CW player see that Ge is building towards a Sealion its really very easy to prevent (mind you not the actual landing itself ...) Basically if CW makes sure to keep UK proporly garrisoned with landunits and AC its pretty useless to invade. (see CWai thread for post regarding how to defend UK from sealion, Im pretty sure I posted something there... )

In that sense I do often find that the threat of a sealion ei. having build an extra TRN in 39 ei. tying up CW units in UK while u go through Spain and crush Suez etc. ...is much more effective than actually carrying it through.

The advice was to not switch TO a Sealion since it requires so much preparation. Your advice that it is possible to switch FROM a Sealion strategy (or to merely threaten to launch the invasion) is not contratdictory.


(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 90
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