Sealion and USSR reaction

[steevodeevo]

I decided to try Sealion instead of Barbarossa and see if i could change history. I invaded the UK in December 1940 I was surprised and disappointed to see that immediately I undertook my first landing on UK soil, the Soviets declared for the Allies and invaded from the east.

Given much of my early research for the landings and my unit positioning was in the West for Sealion, this was effectively game over as the Soviets swept in from the east.

i really wasn't expecting the Soviets to declare for the allies and invade in December 40 and if this is the normal response how the heck does one undertake Sealion when you have to heavily defend eastern Poland and manage a maritime landing and invasion of the UK so early?

[ElvisJJonesRambo]

Happens. Depending how much damage you've done to UK, you can attack on two fronts. Whip the Russians with 3-Tanks while chipping through England if you have Port-2-Port travelocity.

That's Alright Momma, you can SeaLion,
-EJR

[BillRunacre]

Hi

I've checked the scripts and there is one that has a 50% chance of firing per turn that Axis units are in the UK (although it can only fire the once).

But when it fires it will only move the USSR by 20-25% towards the Allies, so on its own it won't be enough to bring the USSR into the war.

If you look at the graphs in the Reports area, it should be possible to see how the USSR's mobilization level has been changing by viewing how its income has risen as the two are closely correlated.

Has there been a sudden, immediate jump, or has it been more gradual?

If the latter, then other things have happened, e.g. a lack of German units in the east, diplomacy, more declarations of war than were carried out historically by this point, the Japanese moving units out of Manchuria.

Hopefully some of these will help explain it?

[steevodeevo]

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

Hi

I've checked the scripts and there is one that has a 50% chance of firing per turn that Axis units are in the UK (although it can only fire the once).
But when it fires it will only move the USSR by 20-25% towards the Allies, so on its own it won't be enough to bring the USSR into the war.
If you look at the graphs in the Reports area, it should be possible to see how the USSR's mobilization level has been changing by viewing how its income has risen as the two are closely correlated.
Has there been a sudden, immediate jump, or has it been more gradual?
If the latter, then other things have happened, e.g. a lack of German units in the east, diplomacy, more declarations of war than were carried out historically by this point, the Japanese moving units out of Manchuria.

Hopefully some of these will help explain it?

Thanks Bill

Looking into this I need to correct my invasion date of UK, it was during October 1940 not December 1940.

The situation in the USSR in September (prior to my UK invasion) was a steady increase in investment. After my invasion I see this -

[BillRunacre]

Interesting, as from that it does look like their mobilization level rose very quickly immediately after the invasion.

But it was rising steadily before then, which suggests the Axis might have reduced forces in the east or Manchuria, as I can't think of anything else in 1940 that would make for regular per-turn increases like that.

The script I mentioned above must have fired, but even so I'm inclined to think that something else has happened too. Do the graphs show any diplomacy?

[steevodeevo]

Hi Bill.

Nope, no diplomacy investment 'at all' from any of the AI players up to October 1940.

There were reduced forces in eastern Manchuria by the Japanese. I had moved some to the outskirts of Vladivostok and as part of that removed units from Jehol, Chifeng, Mukden and Hsinking. My thinking was for the Japanese to probe into eastern USSR, maybe take Vladivostok and distract the Soviets whilst I undertake Sealion. It was an experiment, but I thought maybe I could then push east after Sealion draw in Soviet forces and help relieve the Japanese forces which by then would be suffering in the east from a Soviet build up.

Incidentally, would a reduction by Japanese forces in the Manchukuo area directly 'encourage' the Soviets to react so aggressively to a German invasion of UK?

[ThunderLizard11]

It was like that in WiE as well. I think it makes sense actually.

[BillRunacre]

ORIGINAL: steevodeevo

Incidentally, would a reduction by Japanese forces in the Manchukuo area directly 'encourage' the Soviets to react so aggressively to a German invasion of UK?

Not directly, but Japanese weakness in Manchuria moves the USSR towards the Allies, so coupled with other events, e.g. Sealion, it looks like this has been enough to wake the Russian Bear.

[steevodeevo]

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

ORIGINAL: steevodeevo

Incidentally, would a reduction by Japanese forces in the Manchukuo area directly 'encourage' the Soviets to react so aggressively to a German invasion of UK?

Not directly, but Japanese weakness in Manchuria moves the USSR towards the Allies, so coupled with other events, e.g. Sealion, it looks like this has been enough to wake the Russian Bear.

so a tactic of attacking the UK from the West whilst distracting the USSR from the east in Asia via the Japanse isn't ever going to work for the player controlling the Japanese, Italians and Germans?

[BillRunacre]

I'm not sure I understand, because while the USSR is neutral there isn't really anything to be gained from leaving any positions in Manchuria empty, it will only stimulate Stalin's appetite and the enemy can't see much of what you're doing either.

Preparing more units for an assault on (say) Vladivostock when you're ready is fine, and that won't increase Soviet Mobilization.

[steevodeevo]

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

I'm not sure I understand, because while the USSR is neutral there isn't really anything to be gained from leaving any positions in Manchuria empty, it will only stimulate Stalin's appetite and the enemy can't see much of what you're doing either.

Preparing more units for an assault on (say) Vladivostock when you're ready is fine, and that won't increase Soviet Mobilization.

Indeed Bill, but at some point you have to mass your forces at the border and put a substantial force adjacent to Vladivostok in order to encircle it, stave of incursions and ensure you have 2 or 3 units per turn attacking until its taken if any surprise is to be maintained.

To do this at the stage of the game I did, to distract from Sealion (with primarily infantry foot soldiers and one Mech unit, Alongside freshly constituted units), I moved units away from the defensive locations in Manchuria to the borders in the north and east and gather them up for assault. It seemed pointless leaving armies in the defensive towns in Manchuria given I was going to war on the USSR.

To relocate units even via road in this region to the northern and eastern borders takes 3 or 4 turns. Yes I could have waited till I had more Arty, Mech units planes and engineers and leave teh Mancuria defensive units in situ until after invasion day but that would have delayed Sealion by weeks or months in terms of the plan I was testing out.

I'm not sure which bit of my missive didn't make sense, hopefully this clarifies?

p.s I am going to try version 2 of the Nippon-Germany anvil at some point soon as I'm intrigued. I think I will take a few more screens as I go along.

Steve

[BillRunacre]

Perhaps the way to do this then would be to replace the units that have been moved from their starting locations in Manchuria (and whose absence triggers Soviet mobilization) with Garrison units, either Japanese ones or Chinese ones belonging to Wang Jingwei.

That will buy more time to prepare, and mean that the timing of going to war with the USSR is far more under your control.

[steevodeevo]

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

Perhaps the way to do this then would be to replace the units that have been moved from their starting locations in Manchuria (and whose absence triggers Soviet mobilization) with Garrison units, either Japanese ones or Chinese ones belonging to Wang Jingwei.

That will buy more time to prepare, and mean that the timing of going to war with the USSR is far more under your control.

Yep, makes sense. I do that routinely if i'm relocating troops to the Chinese conflict over in the west. I didn't think the timescales and location for this distraction would make any difference to Sealion, but obviously it does.