question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

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gbem
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question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

after losing an M1IP against a T-55AM to a weakpoint hit frontally i immediately wondered... what is the calculation for that weakpoint hit? and what is recommended in order to minimize the chance of getting it
gbem
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

my god this is ridiculous... the AI charged 2 M1A1s into my T-55s and the T-55s slaughtered them due to frontal weak point penetrations... likewise 2 M60 pattons killed 2 T-80Us by achieving frontal weak point penetrations... i think the frontal weak point hitrate is too high for its own good...
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kevinkins
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by kevinkins »

Wow, that AI knows how to roll snake eyes ... [X(]
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gbem
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

the problem is although i realize even MBTs have weakspots the occurence is simply too much... those enemy 2 M1IPs that charged to my 4 T55s did so in open ground with no cover for both tanks at 2km... the T-55 still KOed the first m1 and tracked the other... the rest proceeded to flank and destroy... that was a situation in the M1IP`s advantage and yet the T-55AM (the 300+ point ones per platoon) crushed the m1s with 1 T-55 lost...

id understand if it were a fight in a forest or at really close range where hitting those tiny weakspots is actually realistic... (cough warthunder) but at 1-2km? that stuff doesnt happen consistently...
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Veitikka
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by Veitikka »

The weak point hit probability is 15%. The only way to avoid it is to avoid getting hit. From what I remember, you're the first one ever saying that it happens too often.
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gbem
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

id say lower it to 5% or even lower... at this rate i can simply use a swarm of T-55s for every tank battle and frontally weakpoint hit all MBTs cost efficiently... in fact ive tried it.... 3x T-55am platoons vs 1 M1A1 platoon... tried 3 times T-55AM always wins...
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by Veitikka »

ORIGINAL: gbem

id understand if it were a fight in a forest or at really close range where hitting those tiny weakspots is actually realistic... (cough warthunder) but at 1-2km? that stuff doesnt happen consistently...

I believe in real life those cases rarely happen because the tank gunner is Tex Willer. More likely a 'weak spot' is hit accidentally.
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gbem
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

1st engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 7 losses

2nd engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 9 losses

3rd engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 6 losses

engagement range 1km
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Veitikka
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by Veitikka »

ORIGINAL: gbem

3x T-55am platoons vs 1 M1A1 platoon... tried 3 times T-55AM always wins...

I find that hard to believe, especially if it's a long range engagement.
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gbem
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

did 3 more engagements
4th engagement
all M1s destroyed T55 12 losses

5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost

6th engagement
all M1s destroyed T55 4 losses
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by gbem »

its not a side penetration as the game logs frontal weakspot hit damage
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kevinkins
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by kevinkins »

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by noooooo »

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin

20% of 400 is 80 so any KE rounds above 80 AP will potentially be able to penetrate the front weak points.
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by Veitikka »

ORIGINAL: gbem

5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost

How many T-55s are there? Earlier you said 3 platoons, and usually T-55 platoons have 3 tanks. That makes 9 tanks. Here you have 15 T-55(AM?), all firing at the M1(A1?) frontal turret/hull armor from 1km range?
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noooooo
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by noooooo »

I just tried it with 9 t55AM against 4 m1a1 and the abrams killed all 9 without a single loss. This was at 1000 meters too which is a massive disadvantage for the abrams.
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by Veitikka »

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin

I think most ammunition can score a weak point hit, but it doesn't automatically kill the target. It just reduces armor protection for that shot down to 20% of the maximum.

A weak point probability of 5% or so would be very low. In that case it probably wouldn't make sense for units to waste any ammunition in hope for a weak spot hit. Remember, first you have to hit the target before there's any chance for a weak point penetration.
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by thewood1 »

Just ran two scenarios six times each in Steel Beasts.

Scenario 1 with M1A1 vs T-55AM from late 70's ammo pool. 5 hits on average from the T-55s with no damage to M1. All three T-55s destroyed.

Scenario 2 with M1A1 vs T-55AM from late 80's ammo pool. 2 hits on average from T-55s damage and destroy M1A1. In half of the scenarios, 1 T-55 was killed.

All at 1km no terrain or weather. SB doesn't list weakpoint hits. It just says penetrated and shows you where it hit.

Year and other factors can influence this so I would think posting your scenario would help clear it up.
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by noooooo »

I'm gonna call the OP out for bullshit on this one. I've done it again and no abrams were lost, both times 1 abrams was damaged from a frontal weakpoint hit which it then proceeded to pop smoke. I have made a video:

https://vimeo.com/303110332
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by thewood1 »

From SB's wiki...

100mm D-10T: BM-8 HVAPDS-T 1700 300 1415 1968
100mm D-10T: BM-20 APFSDS-T 2000 390 1408 1976
100mm D-10T: BM-25 APFSDS-T 2000 430 1430 1978
100mm D-10T: M309 APFSDS-T 2500 480 1400 1999
100mm D-10T: BK-5M HEAT-FS-T 2500 380 900 1955

From the same sources, the M1 center section from turret to bottom of front hull is between 390 and 430mm in resistance to kinetic rounds. That is a pretty big weakpoint. Even the M1A1 is only marginally better. I am not surprised that a T-55AM firing its best ammo at the time is penetrating an M1 fairly regularly. And the AT-10b and beyond can also penetrate. periodically.

A better test in AB is getting one M1 and one T-55 to face off multiple times and see what happens.
noooooo
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

Post by noooooo »

ORIGINAL: thewood1

From SB's wiki...

100mm D-10T: BM-8 HVAPDS-T 1700 300 1415 1968
100mm D-10T: BM-20 APFSDS-T 2000 390 1408 1976
100mm D-10T: BM-25 APFSDS-T 2000 430 1430 1978
100mm D-10T: M309 APFSDS-T 2500 480 1400 1999
100mm D-10T: BK-5M HEAT-FS-T 2500 380 900 1955

From the same sources, the M1 center section from turret to bottom of front hull is between 390 and 430mm in resistance to kinetic rounds. That is a pretty big weakpoint. Even the M1A1 is only marginally better. I am not surprised that a T-55AM firing its best ammo at the time is penetrating an M1 fairly regularly. And the AT-10b and beyond can also penetrate. periodically.

A better test in AB is getting one M1 and one T-55 to face off multiple times and see what happens.

I would think the M1 would win the vast vast majority of the time. By doing 1km engagement and being outnumbered (which is going out of your way to set the Abrams up for failure) from my tests they still succeed with no losses. If it's 1v1 it would require a lot of luck for T-55 to win.
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