From: South Carolina, USA
4 April 1938
There has been a lot of speculation and discussion about the Soviet strike on the Romanian bandits. I have a perspective which differs from most, so let me say a few things.
A. I never thought of this as a big deal. I usually want a small war to gain some experience before bigger things come down. Romania looked attractive, and Italy did not look too formidable.
B. The Soviet Union has a war with the Axis, all Axis nations. I did not expect the Axis to take Romania so seriously. I expected Germany and Italy to continue to expand diplomatically, with a war coming in late 1938, perhaps. I expected Japan to fight China, and to let the sleeping Red dogs sleep. I do not consider Romanian oil to be vital to the German war machine, nice, certainly, but not vital.
C. The Allied player is shaping up nicely, but has a lot of experience to gain. I suspect the Axis player is enabled by the lower pressure from FR, GB and CH.
D. The Red Army is at a very low readiness level. They are struggling with the Romanian campaign, but will improve. In the Far East we are doing much better. The Japanese, like the Soviets, have low CE values. There are a lot of Chinese nearby, and Soviet logistics are improving. It is rough getting pounded by the IJN, but Vladivostok is not critical to the USSR either. I have no idea how this battle will shape up, but just now I think we can defend successfully.