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Colombo falls... - 8/30/2018 4:56:40 AM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

whereas I nibble on, the enemy takes big bites.

As to my nibbling, tattered former defenders of PM take back undefended Salamaua and Wau in PNG. IJ could afford to let them starve there, but so far my opponent showed a liking for hunting down and finishing off shattered ghost units.

As to IJ's bites: This turn, Colombo falls. Defenders are mostly pushed out and move towards Koggala. Unfortunately, there was about 140k fuel and 20k supplies at Colombo before the attack, which will help enemy to sustain his future operations.

Ground combat at Colombo (29,48)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 52441 troops, 688 guns, 191 vehicles, Assault Value = 1835

Defending force 19724 troops, 148 guns, 150 vehicles, Assault Value = 336

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 2739

Allied adjusted defense: 347

Japanese assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Colombo !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
920 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
13244 casualties reported
Squads: 200 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 938 destroyed, 135 disabled
Engineers: 97 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 125 (121 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 106 (99 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units retreated 6
Units destroyed 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
38th Division
18th Division
21st Division
33rd Division
Southern Army
3rd Mortar Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
5th Mortar Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Bn /1
3rd Medium FA Rgt /1

Defending units:
99th Indian Brigade
100th Indian Brigade
Colombo Fortress
98th Indian Brigade
Eastern Fleet
222 Group RAF
Ceylon Command
22nd Light AA Regiment


Hartwig

(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 151
Lucky me... - 8/31/2018 12:56:26 PM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

May 6 1942 is another day with almost no action... so there's plenty of time to celebrate 1 month game time with me being supreme commander. Do I get a pension now if I'm sacked ?

I still think the lack of activity is strange. Take the picture below. As you know, IJ is in the final stages of conquering Ceylon. But Mini KB is withdrawing from the theatre, and I see essentially no indication of major shipping activity (inlcuding in the direction SE of Ceylon that I cut off) in spite of having almost everything that can search on search missions. The last TF at Lunga has disappeared last turn. Intense search and sub patrols in the DEI shows no activity at all. I mean, shouldn't enemy be coming somewhere now?

The second reason for the picture below is an exceptional stroke of luck. Evidently, during the IJ conquest of Colombo I got a very lucky roll. That shipyard is not going to patch ships that were damaged during the invasion very soon, and the supply enemy gained at Colombo will not be sufficient to pay for the repair




Thanks for your interest

Hartwig

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< Message edited by modrow -- 8/31/2018 12:58:32 PM >

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Post #: 152
RE: Lucky me... - 8/31/2018 1:42:25 PM   
Anachro


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Well, the Nihon Dai-teikoku captured Ceylon a lot later in your game than in my own. So that's a positive in addition to the shipyard. Does he seem to have plans for a deeper India push?

(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 153
RE: Lucky me... - 8/31/2018 4:45:47 PM   
BBfanboy


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If you are in the area SE of Ceylon, he might have headed west to invade Diego Garcia. That would help him interdict reinforcements and supply/fuel coming from Capetown and make your upgrading/withdrawing ships have a longer trip to get to CT.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 154
RE: Lucky me... - 8/31/2018 6:11:52 PM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Well, the Nihon Dai-teikoku captured Ceylon a lot later in your game than in my own. So that's a positive in addition to the shipyard. Does he seem to have plans for a deeper India push?


Aye, but JohnIII did not take Portland for a turn so far. That delayed my opponent, I guess... plus maybe the time bought by someone else (likely NY59Giants) in the PI.

Plus one reason why I keep complaining about a lack of enemy TFs because it spoils any attempt to sneak up on them and sink some helpless merchant ships, as you keep doing in an excellent manner , which will definitely slow down IJ in your game.

Re. India push - I do not know. SigInt did not provide any indication; in general I only got 2 or 3 "preparing for attack on" messages, and only one of them materialized so far (a unit prepping for Colombo). Personally, I would have expected more shipping bringing units, supply and fuel in the wake of the Ceylon invasion if India was a real target, or at least seeing heavy radio traffic approaching, which so far I do not. Personally, I think a full scale India invasion is better for me than some of the alternative options IJ has.

Hartwig








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Post #: 155
RE: Lucky me... - 8/31/2018 6:18:49 PM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

If you are in the area SE of Ceylon, he might have headed west to invade Diego Garcia. That would help him interdict reinforcements and supply/fuel coming from Capetown and make your upgrading/withdrawing ships have a longer trip to get to CT.


Thanks for pointing that out. It is a move that would make sense, but I do not think that is the case (yet). My source of intel re. mini KB position in the last two or three days is DL on a set of submarines, and the resulting pattern does not seem to match a move to the West right now.

Hartwig

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 156
RE: Lucky me... - 9/1/2018 12:18:00 AM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Well, the Nihon Dai-teikoku captured Ceylon a lot later in your game than in my own. So that's a positive in addition to the shipyard. Does he seem to have plans for a deeper India push?


Aye, but JohnIII did not take Portland for a turn so far. That delayed my opponent, I guess... plus maybe the time bought by someone else (likely NY59Giants) in the PI.

Plus one reason why I keep complaining about a lack of enemy TFs because it spoils any attempt to sneak up on them and sink some helpless merchant ships, as you keep doing in an excellent manner , which will definitely slow down IJ in your game.

Re. India push - I do not know. SigInt did not provide any indication; in general I only got 2 or 3 "preparing for attack on" messages, and only one of them materialized so far (a unit prepping for Colombo). Personally, I would have expected more shipping bringing units, supply and fuel in the wake of the Ceylon invasion if India was a real target, or at least seeing heavy radio traffic approaching, which so far I do not. Personally, I think a full scale India invasion is better for me than some of the alternative options IJ has.

Hartwig



Well if he does not commit to India soon he must have some other target in mind.

Re: the SIGINT, having aircraft with the right equipment on patrol can help pick up SIGINT. I know the Cats are one of these, but it might be a later model. But even the early models doing a patrol near a busy Japanese base should pick up the Heavy Volume of Radio Traffic info.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 157
What to show... - 9/1/2018 8:19:44 PM   
modrow

 

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As the lull goes on, I resort to desperate measures - like a current China map.

Enemy has stopped pushing hard SE of Sian now, only the occasional bombardment which ususally shows raw AV ratios of about 2:1 in his favor, both sides increasing. I have little supply but many support troops at Sian, where I have some units trying to recover from the hits they took from the monster stack. Progress is slow, but measurable.

My roadblock on that road NE of Nanyang is a healthy consolidated corps which has started to dig in nicely. IJ brought a Division into the hex from Nanyang, but that should not suffice.

Unfortunately, the unit which was supposed to enter the woods west of that blocking position was caught just in time by another IJ division in the hex W of Nayang after being slowed down by air strikes, so now I am marching a unit across the river. I am still not sure whether this part of the operation will be worth what I invested. one consolidated corps was mostly thrashed from the air, but only after breaking two RGC divisions, so VP wise the answer may even be yes, but i got a lot of disablements in the units that were used (now back in the woods on the dirt road 2 hex W of Nanyang). I allowed IJ to bring a division in and thrash the units I used there, because that bought time to insert units for the (failed) attempt to occupy the hex west of the blocking position and moving one to the south, where it is still sitting on the railway SW of Sinyang (you can see a combat symbol, not the unit), but not much lower in view of enemy air power and a unit in the hex.

In the north, I will reopen the road to Lanchow next turn which should make fuel flow to Chungking again.

Feel free to comment if you wish. Ground combat is definitely not my forte, especially in China when supply is hard to get by.









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Post #: 158
RE: Lucky me... - 9/1/2018 8:48:58 PM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Well if he does not commit to India soon he must have some other target in mind.

Re: the SIGINT, having aircraft with the right equipment on patrol can help pick up SIGINT. I know the Cats are one of these, but it might be a later model. But even the early models doing a patrol near a busy Japanese base should pick up the Heavy Volume of Radio Traffic info.


I did not know about that benefit of nav search, but have almost everything on search I have - including the few British Cats (most of which unfortunately withdraw by June 1st) - anyway. Almost, because I had another job to do, see picture below A nice example why manpower is a target worth chosing.

What you can also see on that picture is that BBfanboy was rigth in principle, but just a day too early with his guess about the move of mini KB to the West. It moved SE when he made his guess, but now it is in fact moving West and entered the search arc of planes located at Addu. Mouseover does not show accompanying TFs, but we'll see.

With respect to the commitment - he would need the PI troops, I guess, which started moving from Bataan (to Manila?) on April 18th. A week for the trip Manila-Singapore, another 10-14 days (Port Blair is still mine, so he will probably sail around it) - I think he could still need some days to arrive if he comes.

I did get some new SigInt about troops from the Bataan siege (a Tk Rgt and a division) prepping for Noumea last turn, though.

Oh, and one more thing - enemy reacted promptly to the reconquest of Salamaua, by counterinvasion.

Pre-Invasion action off Salamaua (98,127)

3 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CA Aoba
CA Kumano
CA Suzuya
CA Mogami
CA Ashigara
CA Nachi
CA Maya
CL Nagara
DD Natsugumo
DD Okikaze

Allied ground losses:
48 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

CA Aoba firing at 15th RAAF Base Force
CA Kumano firing at Port Moresby Brigade
CA Suzuya firing at Port Moresby Brigade
CA Mogami firing at Port Moresby Brigade
CA Ashigara firing at 15th RAAF Base Force
CA Nachi firing at Port Moresby Brigade
CA Maya firing at Port Moresby Brigade
CL Nagara firing at 15th RAAF Base Force
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 4,000 yards
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 2,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Salamaua (98,127)

TF 29 troops unloading over beach at Salamaua, 98,127

Japanese ground losses:
218 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 42 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (0 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)



Fine with me, because I got the job done I wanted to have done - flip the part of PM brigade at Horn Isl from /1 to main unit (I needed to have the unit on a coastal hex or at a base, even got both :) ). Plus making the enemy react and use something to counter an essentially meaningless action is also good.

Thanks for your interest

Hartwig




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< Message edited by modrow -- 9/1/2018 8:51:21 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 159
Brief update - 9/9/2018 10:28:56 AM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

this AAR still suffers from thing worth reporting, which is why it went silent for a while. But the game is progressing with decent speed (for typical turn rates I manage to do), May 14 42 is the last executed turn.

The tidbit I can report is that on said day the last Allied base on Ceylon, Koggala, fell to the first attack. The three Indian Brigades that defenden Ceylon never had a chance against four IJ division plus supporting units employed to conquer the island. So another bunch of almost 400 LCU points harvested by IJ; VP ratio is 2.85:1 in IJ favour now.

Other than that, I still do not see enemy activity. Over the last few days, I got some indications that at least troop transfer from the PI may not have been completed, there is still a large number of LCUs reported at Manila, and last turn SS Sturgeon snuck into Manila and torpedoed a destroyer that was part of a major, well-escorted xAP TF. So I'm still waiting for the hammer to fall and working on infrastructure and logistic prerequesites for implementation of my plans.

One more bit of information that I received is that my opponent will likely go after Noumea. I have now sigint of 3 IJ divisions plus 1 Tk Rgt preparing for that base, plus there is increasing enemy sub activity in the region.

I'll keep you posted if anything of interest occurs.

Hartwig

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Post #: 160
Setback - 9/10/2018 9:40:07 PM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

quicker than expected, the next brief update from the very next turn.

Enemy managed to project his mini-KB to a position west of Addu without prior detection by my search assets at Diego Garcia and Addu and my sub pickets. The timing is unfortunate; it kills 2 large TK (which I will miss sorely due to the portland raid) and an amphibious TF carrying a reinforcement LCU for Addu. 2 more TFs are in danger next turn.

2 enemy TFs are detected at Colombo. Also, a sub stumbles across a TF near Munda, which appears to be carrying troops. Looks like a push in the southern pacific will occur. Tactical problem for me is that assuming SigInt prediction of Noumea as a target is correct, I do not have enough at Noumea, which means I have too much at Noumea...

Hartwig

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Post #: 161
Intel break ? - 9/12/2018 7:09:00 PM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

another mostly uneventful day on the map.

One of the small bits of action is another Zero sweep. The Dutch tear it apart. Layered CAP + well trained pilots + a mix of planes including some with high mvr and decent climb do the job.

Morning Air attack on Koepang , at 68,116

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 34,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18

Allied aircraft
B-339D x 4
75A-7 Hawk x 12
P-40E Warhawk x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 32810 feet


But here's some interesting intel...

SIG INT REPORT FOR May 16, 42

15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment is located at Heijo(103,47).
5th Ind.Mixed Brigade is located at Tsingtao(95,47).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Manila (79,77).
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment is located at Singapore(50,84).
Radio transmissions detected at Namatanai (107,125).
Yokosuka 1st SNLF is located at Batavia(49,98).
Shanghai Special Base Force is located at Shanghai(92,55).
a Japanese xAK is moving to Colombo (29,48).
12th/C Division is located at 84,42.
82nd JAAF AF Bn is located at Phnom Penh(58,69).
50th JAAF AF Bn is located at Hengchun(84,67).
17th JAAF Base Force is located at Nanchang(85,54).
Radio transmissions detected at Kolaka (68,105).
22nd Field AA Machinecannon Company is loaded on xAP Buenos Aires Maru moving to Rockhampton.
Radio transmissions detected at Hamamatsu (111,61).
Central Army is located at Osaka/Kyoto(109,59).
Radio transmissions detected at Maebashi (113,59).
54th Const Co is located at Colombo(29,48).
31st Special Base Force is located at Manila(79,77).
Radio transmissions detected at Port Arthur (99,44).
12th JAAF AF Coy is located at Kiungshan(71,61).
33rd JAAF AF Coy is located at Cocos Islands(33,101).
60th/B Division is located at Tsiaotso(88,42).
36th JAAF AF Bn is located at Makassar(65,106).
RGC Army is located at Nanking(91,52).


That ship was part of a TF that was encountered by a sub near Munda last turn. Also, some of the subs in the area show increased detection, which may mean KB is around.

I'll keep you posted...

Hartwig


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Post #: 162
Here they come - 9/13/2018 4:31:45 AM   
modrow

 

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Gentlemen,

we picked up the TFs belonging to the above intel break.

Hartwig




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Post #: 163
RE: Here they come - 9/13/2018 2:10:07 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow
we picked up the TFs belonging to the above intel break.

Invasion of Australia proper in May 42, is not it a bit overly ambitious at this point?
Not to mention that it is hardly possible to trap Australian LCUs in the northern part of the coast, so you even have an option of happily dodging the thing altogether and let him have the ground which he would later vacate anyway. But you would surely fight
How many of the Americans made it to Australia so far? How is the upgrade status of Aus Inf squads in the Oz divisions?

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Post #: 164
RE: Here they come - 9/14/2018 8:11:08 PM   
modrow

 

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My opponent is out of town for the weekend, so I have time to comment on this

quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Invasion of Australia proper in May 42, is not it a bit overly ambitious at this point?
Not to mention that it is hardly possible to trap Australian LCUs in the northern part of the coast, so you even have an option of happily dodging the thing altogether and let him have the ground which he would later vacate anyway. But you would surely fight
How many of the Americans made it to Australia so far? How is the upgrade status of Aus Inf squads in the Oz divisions?


GetAssista,

re. my opponents ambition: isn't it overly ambitious to try for IJ autovictory by the beginning of 43? In a scenario 1 game on top of it all ?

I still think that is what my opponent tries to achieve, and even if perhaps TF compositions or use of airforce are sometimes not optimal from my point of view, from a strategic point of view I think his actions make some sense and follow a plan – like a project game, if you understand what I mean. Also, IMO he is also trying to employ some Maskirovka to keep me on the wrong foot, which is sound play as well.

The West coast landing probably kept some unrestricted units longer in the US than usual, and cosider that many Allied players may by reflex reinforce a few bases which are still Allied in this game, but rarely are in other games, so assets are more diluted than usual (and may well have to be if I want a chance to cause a deviation from the plan).

Bearing this overall situation in mind, I actually do consider strongly the option that you mention – dodging the thing. Maybe not altogether (I’d like to roughen up his landing some if I can, the extent of that will become clear when I know how quickly his TFs move), but mostly. Expected loss ratio in ground combat is the cue here, which will change in my favour – so I’d actually prefer to do the fighting on the ground later. Air and sea are a different story, of course.

I am through with the AIF42 squad upgrade, but I had to disband constituents of 8th Division to make that happen. I did the reasonable TOE upgrades for armored units (there are some I don’t like which replace available tanks with Humbers in the TOE) and base forces and have a few of the tank units that are sort of ready for combat (i.e. filled up with real tanks, using Matildas and Grant/Lees in parallel to be able to make continued use of the Matildas I will continue to get). But a lot of units are still low exp, which reflects the fact that their targets have been changed at least once by the previous commanders, so the wonderful level to which Australians can be trained without combat is not even close. And of course there are never enough 25 pdr guns, 3.7” AAA, 40mm Bofors and Bren AAMGs.

With respect to availability of LCUs, specifically US LCUs, there’s currently not too much available in Australia - yet. Honestly, I would prefer to use them only after the next US Inf squad ubgrade, which brings about a massive increase in fire power. Ceylon invasion (IMO a raid) did not trigger me to send US reinforcements to India (so mini KB, which is hovering in position to kill such TFs now, should hopefully wait in vain for prey).

Hartwig


< Message edited by modrow -- 9/14/2018 8:13:04 PM >

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Post #: 165
RE: Here they come - 9/14/2018 9:46:28 PM   
uncivil_servant


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I do not see how this is an over-extension on IJ's part. He removed a goodly potion of the allied naval oob with his brief raid of Portland. He has essentially closed the Indian Ocean to reinforcements from the west. Moving KB to close it off from reinforcements from the east.

What do you have to stop an invasion of Australia? Only what is there right now. Now more troops, no more supplies. He can play the long game now.

Also, there is a huge psychological reason he is moving slowly and not showing his forces on all fronts. If you feel you have no hope you will do "no mas" "no mas".


quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow
we picked up the TFs belonging to the above intel break.

Invasion of Australia proper in May 42, is not it a bit overly ambitious at this point?
Not to mention that it is hardly possible to trap Australian LCUs in the northern part of the coast, so you even have an option of happily dodging the thing altogether and let him have the ground which he would later vacate anyway. But you would surely fight
How many of the Americans made it to Australia so far? How is the upgrade status of Aus Inf squads in the Oz divisions?


(in reply to GetAssista)
Post #: 166
RE: Here they come - 9/14/2018 11:09:06 PM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: uncivil_servant

I do not see how this is an over-extension on IJ's part. He removed a goodly potion of the allied naval oob with his brief raid of Portland. He has essentially closed the Indian Ocean to reinforcements from the west. Moving KB to close it off from reinforcements from the east.

What do you have to stop an invasion of Australia? Only what is there right now. Now more troops, no more supplies. He can play the long game now.

Also, there is a huge psychological reason he is moving slowly and not showing his forces on all fronts. If you feel you have no hope you will do "no mas" "no mas".



IMO IJ has not yet managed to complete the seal off you describe, and he has to manage to do it to reach the long game if .autovictory is not achieved. Perhaps it (the seal off) is not impossible, but it will not be easy to achieve it for IJ in the present constellation on the map.

Also, the only side that has no reason for hope in WitP AE is IJ

< Message edited by modrow -- 9/14/2018 11:10:07 PM >

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Post #: 167
RE: Here they come - 9/16/2018 8:04:13 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow
GetAssista,

re. my opponents ambition: isn't it overly ambitious to try for IJ autovictory by the beginning of 43? In a scenario 1 game on top of it all ?

But there are few base points in mainland OZ. He should've strived for Noumea and other Pacific island point rich bases for the autovictory. I fail to see what he would achieve in OZ with Pacific open for Americans

(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 168
To Oz or not to Oz, that is the question... - 9/17/2018 10:46:32 AM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow

… in this specific game?

Gentlemen,

I am curious to hear your views on the above question. But please do not rush blindly to the standard answer (which is valid in most cases and in the long run - but will there be a long run?) that DEI is of course crucial for IJ and any further thought can be dismissed as a fool's errand without further consideration.

One of the peculiarities of the Allied position in this game is that they still control essentially all of Timor and Ceram including a mostly intact Dutch army (This is one of the reasons to which I alluded in my response to BIF1961's question in post #76). Potentially this is a great jumpoff position to cause massive trouble in the DEI/SRA region more quickly than usual. So naturally, IJ has to take care of that,a threat to that region is something that forces IJ to react and/or eliminate it – or not?

I currently still cannot fathom my opponent properly – unfortunately, he is not very communicative in his mails and in the forums. But the longer I play against him, the stronger gets my impression that the Portland invasion may be part of a plan developed to attempt to get an early IJ autovictory by the beginning of 43. And if this is the case, is the DEI/SRA truly a region where IJ has to get active (especially as my opponent does have use of its oil and resources currently and my curtail some of his industry expenditures in an optimized pursuit of this strategy)?

We have a 2.8:1 VP ratio right now, with only 7000 Allied points (which can be kept low by denying plane and ship VPs, this is why I think the lack of action can be part of a plan and why I am actually trying to get into more contact).
For comparison, I dug out the data for the same game date in my latest PBEM game as Allied: 1.6:1 with about 11600 Allied points. You see that a lot of the difference is explained by the low VP denominator in this game, which is why I feel I have to look for ways to add VPs.

(In view of the previous “welcome” early active Allied air war discussion, let me add that in said other game 2511 of those VPs are for destroyed IJ planes, wheras I lost 1779 planes in return; as for the issue of sustainability in that game we are in mid November 42 now with 6900 IJ and 4500 Allied planes destroyed).

If, however, I were to pursue this early autovictory strategy as IJ, I would next look hard at the victory points to be gained in the Pacific. Check the big VP multiplier bases, most of which can still be taken and expanded – Luganville, Effate, Suva, Johnston Isl, Palmyra,… Full expansion of these bases will give you a bunch of additional points. Take Noumea to induce another notable VP loss (currently 300 IIRC) for Allied, complete buildup of high multiplier bases already in IJ hands, make use of China as a VP generation engine. If necessary, do one more late invasion, triggering another emergency package with a timing that it does not arrive in time to affect things significantly, chosen in a way that allows you to get strat bombing points.

With sufficient concentration of assets and under KB cover, in my experience throughout 42 Allied strongpoints can still be destroyed and will provide not only base points and potential base points when expanded if they have a good VP multiplier, but also additional points for LCU destruction.

So… from IJ's point of view maybe I could just look at anything happening in the DEI in a relaxed way as IJ and actually be glad about any activity/use of Allied assets in this area, because my Allied opponent is moving his reinforcements to an area that is of no real interest to me, fueled by hopes that this may be a way to avoid feeling the dire consequences of the Portland raid in 1944?

Am I just paranoid, or do you think this may be a real possibility?

Thanks for your views

Hartwig

(edited for clarification, more editing for spelling)


Being paranoid is good in war.

The logic of this strategy is to go after Australia rather than the South Pacific. The VP multiplier for Japan is generally much higher on the Australian bases plus the infrastructure is already built there and likely to have been further built up by the end of 1942. This strategy does not allow Japan the time to build up infrastructure which is the main problem with focussing on the few high multiplier South Pacific bases like Noumea et al.

The more Allied assets forward deployed to counter the standard Japanese expansion operations the less available to defend Sydney/Melbourne from a massed IJA landing in December 1942. Those bases have a 100x multiplier and there are few bases elsewhere with equivalent multipliers. Plus there are many other Australian bases with excellent multipliers which exist outside of the Australian LOD.

Alfred


GetAssista,

your thoughts are very much along my first take in this. But it is worth rereading Alfred's above post (IMO it is always worth rereading his posts several times) and then think carefully about the ideal timing for IJ(which I haven't completed). I have highlighted two important points: In fact, one has to look at the infrastructure buildup IJ can realistically manage and compare to the expansion levels required (which may be easier to achieve if one allows Allied to do more of the infrastructure buildup for IJ), and in fact a late landing as described above may be desirable for IJ.

Am running out of time now, maybe I will add/post some more later.

Hartwig

< Message edited by modrow -- 9/17/2018 12:11:31 PM >

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 169
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles... - 9/17/2018 12:21:32 PM   
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and, by opposing, end them .

IJ picked up some DL on shipping near Horn Island and evidently could not resist the temptation.
If you subtract the Kates, the rest of the action was mainly in the skies over Port Blair.

Still in a hurry, more later.

Hartwig




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Post #: 170
Trailer - 9/18/2018 4:47:02 AM   
modrow

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow
GetAssista,

your thoughts are very much along my first take in this. But it is worth rereading Alfred's above post (IMO it is always worth rereading his posts several times) and then think carefully about the ideal timing for IJ(which I haven't completed). I have highlighted two important points: In fact, one has to look at the infrastructure buildup IJ can realistically manage and compare to the expansion levels required (which may be easier to achieve if one allows Allied to do more of the infrastructure buildup for IJ), and in fact a late landing as described above may be desirable for IJ.

Am running out of time now, maybe I will add/post some more later.

Hartwig


Gentlemen,

my opponent seems a bit undecided where to go himself. In any case, he set course to Noumea. He may still go to Australia, of course. IMO it does make sense to get a base that is closer to Australia proper prior to going there for him.

This is not going to take long once enemy gets ashore, because Intel told me about 1Tk Rgt, 4 division and 65 Bde preparing for Noumea. So, Allied high command dispatches a desperate message to Vice Admiral Chadwick, RNZN.

Stay tuned for the description of the next turn. Blood and gore, valor, heroics, exciting action and disappointing lack thereof - all in one turn, here in this AAR !

Admittedly, this is a bit of a cliffhanger though, got to run to work.

Hartwig




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< Message edited by modrow -- 9/18/2018 4:49:38 AM >

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Post #: 171
Trailer II - 9/18/2018 5:09:20 AM   
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Vice admiral Chadwick stared at the message in disbelief. That bl…y fu…ng id…t of Allied CINC WitP-AE was requesting him to stop the IJ onslaught… an expected invasion of Noumea with the backing of full KB, at least one SCTF and probably three more TFs… and what with… 2 CLs and 2DDs?

Of course, he snarled to himself, with two heroes like Achilles and Leander at his disposal, a Homeric fight was guaranteed. Not to count the two Wickes class DD that were to support him.

Oh, well.

He turned around and went to the plotting table, staring in deep thought at the map. Then he turned to his signal man. To all ships: set course 342°, full ahead.

(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 172
First contact - 9/18/2018 8:19:15 PM   
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SS sculpin reports contact with enemy TF

ASW attack near Belep Islands at 110,156

Japanese Ships
DD Shiratsuyu
PB Choko Maru #2
AD Kureha Maru #3
AKE Unkai Maru #3
AKE Bandoeng Maru
AKE Kokuryu Maru
AKE Alaska Maru
PB Myoken Maru

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin

SS Sculpin launches 4 torpedoes at DD Shiratsuyu
Sculpin diving deep ....
DD Shiratsuyu fails to find sub and abandons search
PB Myoken Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Myoken Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Myoken Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Myoken Maru attacking submerged sub ....
PB Myoken Maru cannot establish contact with SS Sculpin
PB Myoken Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Myoken Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


Chadwick smiles. Looks like his guess was pretty accurate.

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Post #: 173
First contact confirmed - 9/18/2018 8:20:31 PM   
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SS Cuttlefish reports contact with enemy TF.

Japanese Ships
DMS W-16
CL Yubari
DD Yanagi
DD Tachikaze
DD Mochizuki
E Uji
E Hashidate
E Hachijo
AMC Aikoku Maru
AMC Kongo Maru
AMC Kiyosumi Maru
AMC Awata Maru
AMC Kinryu Maru
CM Okinoshima
CM Tokiwa
DMS W-18
AV Kimikawa Maru
xAP Yoshino Maru
xAP Rakuyo Maru
xAP Asama Maru
xAK Kamoi Maru
xAK Syohei Maru
xAK Keisho Maru
xAK Yamahuku Maru
xAK Tenyo Maru
xAK Yokohama Maru
xAK Tatuwa Maru
xAK Aratama Maru
DD Yomogi
DD Susuki
DD Kiku
DD Tsuga

Allied Ships
SS Cuttlefish

SS Cuttlefish launches 4 torpedoes at DMS W-16
Cuttlefish diving deep ....
DD Yomogi attacking submerged sub ....
DD Susuki fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Kiku fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Tsuga attacking submerged sub ....
DD Tsuga is out of ASW ammo
DD Tsuga is out of ASW ammo
DD Tsuga is out of ASW ammo
DD Yomogi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Tsuga fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Yomogi attacking submerged sub ....
SS Cuttlefish eludes ASW attack from DD Yomogi
DD Yomogi cannot reach attack position over SS Cuttlefish
DD Yomogi cannot establish contact with SS Cuttlefish
DD Yomogi cannot establish contact with SS Cuttlefish
SS Cuttlefish eludes ASW attack from DD Yomogi
DD Yomogi attacking submerged sub ....
SS Cuttlefish eludes ASW attack from DD Yomogi
DD Yomogi cannot establish contact with SS Cuttlefish
SS Cuttlefish eludes ASW attack from DD Yomogi
SS Cuttlefish eludes DD Yomogi by diving deep
SS Cuttlefish eludes ASW attack from DD Yomogi
DD Yomogi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Yomogi attacking submerged sub .
...

Chadwick’s smile is broadening. That area is where his TF should arrive in less than an hour…

(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 174
Dealing with the vanguard - 9/18/2018 8:24:23 PM   
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All hands to stations ! Four small grey shades become visible at close range – an ASW TF leading the enemy host of shipping…

Night Time Surface Combat, near Belep Islands at 111,156, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 19, Shell hits 2, on fire
SC Ch 20, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
SC Ch 24
SC Ch 26, Shell hits 12, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Leander
CL Achilles
DD Kennison
DD Crane

Poor visibility due to Rain with 17% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Rain and 17% moonlight: 2,000 yards
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
Range closes to 4,000 yards...
Range closes to 3,000 yards...
Range closes to 2,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 2,000 yards
Chadwick A. crosses the 'T'
CL Leander engages SC Ch 20 at 2,000 yards
DD Kennison engages SC Ch 20 at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
CL Leander engages SC Ch 26 at 3,000 yards
CL Leander engages SC Ch 26 at 3,000 yards
DD Crane engages SC Ch 20 at 3,000 yards
CL Achilles engages SC Ch 26 at 3,000 yards
Massive explosion on SC Ch 20
SC Ch 20 sunk by CL Leander at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
SC Ch 26 sunk by CL Achilles at 2,000 yards
CL Achilles engages SC Ch 19 at 2,000 yards
DD Crane engages SC Ch 19 at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 5,000 yards
CL Leander engages SC Ch 19 at 5,000 yards
Task forces break off...


Not quite the prey Chadwick had hoped for...




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< Message edited by modrow -- 9/18/2018 8:30:31 PM >

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Post #: 175
Bloody rain ! - 9/18/2018 8:34:08 PM   
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New ships appear at short distance in a rainy night, but disappear all too quickly in a rain squall :

Night Time Surface Combat, near Belep Islands at 111,156, Range 1,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
DD Shiratsuyu
PB Choko Maru #2
PB Keijo Maru, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
PB Myoken Maru, Shell hits 2
AKE Alaska Maru
AKE Kokuryu Maru
AKE Bandoeng Maru
AD Kureha Maru #3
AKE Unkai Maru #3

Allied Ships
CL Leander
CL Achilles
DD Kennison
DD Crane

Poor visibility due to Rain with 17% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Rain and 17% moonlight: 1,000 yards
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
Range closes to 4,000 yards...
Range closes to 3,000 yards...
Range closes to 2,000 yards...
Range closes to 1,000 yards...
Chadwick A. crosses the 'T'
DD Crane engages DD Shiratsuyu at 1,000 yards
CL Leander engages PB Myoken Maru at 1,000 yards
CL Leander engages PB Keijo Maru at 1,000 yards
CL Leander engages PB Choko Maru #2 at 1,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
CL Leander engages DD Shiratsuyu at 3,000 yards
DD Crane engages DD Shiratsuyu at 3,000 yards
DD Shiratsuyu engages DD Kennison at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
CL Leander engages PB Myoken Maru at 2,000 yards
PB Keijo Maru sunk by CL Leander at 2,000 yards
DD Shiratsuyu engages DD Kennison at 2,000 yards
CL Achilles engages DD Shiratsuyu at 2,000 yards
CL Leander engages DD Shiratsuyu at 2,000 yards
DD Crane engages PB Choko Maru #2 at 2,000 yards
DD Kennison engages AD Kureha Maru #3 at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
CL Achilles engages DD Shiratsuyu at 3,000 yards
Japanese Task Force Manages to Escape
Task forces break off...


Chadwick curses. Hitting this TF badly could have had significant consequences for IJ's entire operation.




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Post #: 176
Elsewhere... - 9/18/2018 8:37:00 PM   
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Meanwhile, 71 hex away, IJ has to fight another surface battle against harassing Allied forces.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Makassar at 65,106, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Yugao
DD Hasu

Allied Ships
DD Stronghold
DD Electra

Reduced sighting due to 17% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Clear Conditions and 17% moonlight: 8,000 yards
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 8,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 8,000 yards
DD Yugao engages DD Electra at 8,000 yards
DD Stronghold engages DD Yugao at 8,000 yards
Range closes to 7,000 yards
DD Hasu engages DD Electra at 7,000 yards
DD Stronghold engages DD Yugao at 7,000 yards
DD Electra engages DD Hasu at 7,000 yards
DD Yugao engages DD Stronghold at 7,000 yards
Range increases to 8,000 yards
DD Electra engages DD Hasu at 8,000 yards
DD Yugao engages DD Stronghold at 8,000 yards
Range increases to 11,000 yards
DD Electra engages DD Hasu at 11,000 yards
DD Yugao engages DD Stronghold at 11,000 yards
Task forces break off...


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Post #: 177
Once more a sub fails - 9/18/2018 8:39:53 PM   
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SS Sculpin fails with another attempt to score a hit:

Sub attack near Belep Islands at 111,156

Japanese Ships
DD Yakaze
CL Yubari
DD Yanagi
DD Mochizuki
E Uji
E Hashidate
E Hachijo
AMC Aikoku Maru
AMC Kongo Maru
AMC Kiyosumi Maru
AMC Awata Maru
AMC Kinryu Maru
CM Okinoshima
CM Tokiwa
DMS W-18
DMS W-16
AV Kimikawa Maru
AV Akitsushima
xAP Yoshino Maru
xAP Suwa Maru
xAK Kamoi Maru
xAK Syohei Maru
xAK Montreal Maru
xAK Arabia Maru
xAK Yamahuku Maru
xAK Nitisan Maru
xAK Yokohama Maru
xAK Tatuharu Maru
xAK Aratama Maru
DD Yomogi
DD Susuki
DD Kiku
DD Sanae

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin

SS Sculpin launches 4 torpedoes at DD Yakaze
Sculpin diving deep ....
DD Yomogi fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Susuki attacking submerged sub ....
DD Kiku fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Sanae fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Susuki attacking submerged sub ....
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Susuki fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


This seems to be the most important enemy TF. Will the Allied manage to tangle with it?

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Post #: 178
Yet again a sub fails - 9/18/2018 8:41:20 PM   
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Also, elsewhere Allied forces make their presence known - but don't achieve anything.

ASW attack near Colombo at 29,48

Japanese Ships
PB Tenzan Maru
DMS W-2
xAK Nansin Maru
xAK Midori Maru
xAK Meigen Maru
xAK Meisho Maru
xAK Josho Maru
xAK Hokutatsu Maru
PB Nako Maru #2
PB Ginyo Maru
PB Yamadori Maru

Allied Ships
SS S-40, hits 5

SS S-40 launches 2 torpedoes at PB Tenzan Maru
S-40 bottoming out ....
PB Nako Maru #2 fails to find sub and abandons search
PB Ginyo Maru fails to find sub and abandons search
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Tenzan Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Tenzan Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Tenzan Maru fails to find sub and abandons search
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Yamadori Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Yamadori Maru attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub


(in reply to modrow)
Post #: 179
Japanese revenge part I - 9/18/2018 8:42:28 PM   
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The Japanese are looking to avenge yesterday’s defeat at Port Blair and try to hit the airbase - not too efectively.

Night Naval bombardment of Port Blair at 46,58 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 damaged

57 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CL Kitakami
CL Kuma
CL Natori, Shell hits 3
CL Isuzu
CL Sendai
DD Kuretake
DD Yugiri
DD Suzukaze
DD Umikaze
DD Samidare
DD Yudachi
DD Kasumi
DD Arare
DD Asagumo
DD Minegumo
DD Oshio

Allied Ships
ML No. 310, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 18
Port hits 9

CL Kitakami firing at Port Blair
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion firing at CL Kuma
CL Kuma firing at Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
CL Natori firing at Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion firing at CL Natori
CL Isuzu firing at Port Blair
CL Sendai firing at NS KNIL Territory Regiment
DD Kuretake firing at Port Blair
DD Yugiri firing at Port Blair
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion firing at DD Suzukaze
DD Suzukaze firing at Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
DD Umikaze firing at Port Blair
DD Samidare firing at NS KNIL Territory Regiment
DD Yudachi firing at Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion firing at DD Yudachi
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion firing at DD Kasumi
DD Kasumi firing at Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
DD Arare firing at 103rd RN Base Force
103rd RN Base Force firing at DD Arare
DD Asagumo firing at Port Blair
DD Minegumo firing at 103rd RN Base Force
103rd RN Base Force firing at DD Minegumo
DD Oshio firing at 103rd RN Base Force
103rd RN Base Force firing at DD Oshio



< Message edited by modrow -- 9/18/2018 8:44:36 PM >

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