No Army preparing for an offensive in a month would even think they had a chance of success in such a dilapidated state.
I refer you to 56ajax's post:
Then again the Russian s thought they were the best army in the world, and to say otherwise would label you as counter revolutionary and lead to the firing squad. Furthermore, training breaks equipment, especially aircraft, which leads to you being classified as a saboteur and here comes the firing squad again. Best leave aircraft, tanks, guns etc in the shed.
Do not apply cold logic to how the Red Army operated, it required two years of bloodbath (mostly of their own making) before they were ready to accept rules of cold logic and allow for certain honesty in reports. Some people say Glantz's books are pro-Soviet, but even they are chock full of authentic reports from lower to upper echelons of command which were deliberately misleading in order to cover ****ups they made in order not to lose their post (or head), and completely unrealistic orders from upper to lower echelons of command, demanding impossible, without taking into account actual troop numbers, and readiness, formed on the basis of wishful thinking instead of actual recon. So it's not possible to say that USSR didn't plan to attack Nazi Germany because they were unready in objective terms. Yes, they were unready for offensive and defensive ops, but they lied to themselves that they are, so they could start the war if the only decisive person in their government would say the word. And they prepared for such eventuality, as all armies actually do. The only problem is we won't ever know with 100% accuracy what date (if any) Uncle Joe had in mind. There is certain evidence preparations were quite advanced, while some will counter these saying it was purely defensive mobilization. But a what-if scenario of Soviet attack in July 1941 is actually more sound than some other possible what-if scenarios.
I agree to some extent that we cant apply cold logic only (and the huge adventage of knowing what happened with the soviet army in 1941) to this situation, but unless Stalin was an utter idiot (something he wasnt) I dont see how he had on mind 15 th july of 1941 as invasion date (I acknowledge later dates, in 1942 or 1943 could be possible).
First, Stalin was in the middle of an organizational change. He acknowledge that tanks and mechanization were key in modern warfare. That is why he ordered the mech corps be rebuild after being aware of what had happened in France. But those mech corps were mostly being formed in mid 1941. Why would Stalin attack when his main units were still "in the works"?
Second, even if Stalin lied to himself (or others lied to him) about the sorry state of soviet forces, the winter war should have give him something to consider that his forces werent as good as he might have thought.
Thrid, Stalin was always cautious on his dealings with foreing affairs. By cautious I mean that he didnt act until he was sure the pieces were in place. He didnt start expanding in the east until he struck a deal with Germany. I dont see why would Stalin attack Germany in 1941, a Germany who had no enemies left on the continent, without first securing help from the UK (besides being already at war with Germany) or the USA.
Fourth, Stalin might think his armies were superb and could roll on everything, but having lead troops himself, I am sure he was aware that units needed some time to make plans and train before attacking. The winter war surely taught him that if he didnt know it. However, no soviet general was aware of offensive ops for july 1941?
< Message edited by No idea -- 3/9/2018 7:21:02 AM >