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RE: Turn 34 (3:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:32:21 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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More attacks are set up.




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RE: Turn 34 (3:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:32:57 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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A final set of attacks are set up.




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RE: Turn 34 (3:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:33:33 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Heavy losses gain only one hex.




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Post #: 123
Turn 35 (4:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:34:16 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 35 (4:00pm)

The Confederates make some repositioning moves to keep the defense uniform.





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Post #: 124
RE: Turn 35 (4:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:34:58 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Union attacks are set up.




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Post #: 125
RE: Turn 35 (4:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:35:33 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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This turn was very bad for the Union. They now have a hard time finding any place in the line where they can create any attack odds.




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Post #: 126
Turn 36 (5:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:36:13 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Turn 36 (5:00pm)

The Union sets up a few attacks.





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Post #: 127
RE: Turn 36 (5:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:36:50 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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With one success, more attacks are set up. One attack is just to involve the last Union arrivals.




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Post #: 128
RE: Turn 36 (5:00pm) - 2/23/2018 1:37:25 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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The final results show little success. Day Two comes to an end, ending the battle. Presumably, the Confederacy would withdraw during the following night.




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Post #: 129
Victory - 2/23/2018 1:38:11 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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The result is a Confederate victory.

Of the On Map VPs, 310 were held by the Confederates and 190 were held by the Union (net 120).
The Loss Penalties were 56 Confederate and 155 Union (net 99).
The VP awards were 10 + 75 = 85 Confederate (McClernand, Sherman) and 10 + 10 + 10 = 30 Union (Ruggles, Breckinridge, Hardee) (net 55).
Total Confederacy = 120 + 99 + 55 = 274 of 500. This is a Significant Victory.





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RE: Victory - 2/23/2018 1:38:46 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Here’s a movie of the battle from the Confederacy’s view point (Union units only partially visible):




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Post #: 131
RE: Victory - 2/23/2018 1:39:22 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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And here’s a movie of the battle from the Union’s view point (Confederate units only partially visible):




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Post #: 132
Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:40:13 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Statistical Analysis:

And now, let’s look at some statistics. First up, is the Manpower Losses Chart. Clearly, the Union took a beating on Day One. But they fared only a little better on Day Two:





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Post #: 133
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:40:50 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Things look even worse for the Union in the Gun Losses Chart:




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Post #: 134
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:41:23 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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And here’s the Loss Penalty Chart. Note that it reflects losses to the Pools as well as permanent losses. So, as losses to the Pools are returned to play, the chart sometimes decreases. Still pretty bad for the Union, though. The difference between the two plots is registered in the Victory Total – 99 VPs for the Confederacy at the end.




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Post #: 135
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:41:58 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Here is the Net Manpower Chart. The dashed blue plot is the Union total without the 3rd Division (in other words, just what was on the battle area). So, the Union falls far behind in manpower on the first day. It then takes a small edge at the start of the second day. But it finally falls behind the Confederacy before noon. This shows why it was having so little success against the Confederacy’s line.




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RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:42:29 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Here’s the Net Gun Chart. The Confederacy is superior in numbers (but not in quality) for the duration.




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Post #: 137
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:42:59 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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This shows the Confederacy’s % loss by Corps.




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Post #: 138
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:43:28 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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This shows the Union % loss by Division/Army.




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Post #: 139
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 2/23/2018 1:43:59 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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This shows the manpower losses by day.




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Post #: 140
Conclusions: - 2/23/2018 1:44:29 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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Conclusions:

OK, I admit that my opening moves by the Confederacy more closely resembled a surgical strike than the blundering mess that happened historically. But I’ll pass on trying to force that on the Confederate player. Otherwise, I think I finally got the scenario working about like I want it (and it took four false starts and revisions before I got there).

I do plan to make the revisions I mentioned about the VPs associated with the bridge capture and 3rd Division withdrawal. And the bug with crossing the river has to be fixed in TOAW’s cease fire process before the scenario can be played.

Can this system I developed for Shiloh work with other Civil War battles? Shiloh was special in that it was early in the war, before Minie Rifles were universal, and it was very heavily wooded, blunting the impact of ranged fire. But it’s almost irresistible to at least give it a try.

Happy Wargaming!


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Post #: 141
RE: Conclusions: - 2/23/2018 4:56:33 AM   
larryfulkerson


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Excellent work Bob dude. I appreciate all your hard work and the
analysis that goes along with it. This scenario sounds like a winner
alright.

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Post #: 142
RE: Conclusions: - 2/23/2018 2:50:02 PM   
gwgardner

 

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Thoroughly interesting and intrigueing. Thanks for all the analysis.

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Post #: 143
RE: Conclusions: - 2/24/2018 12:58:15 AM   
rhinobones

 

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Enjoyed the AAR and complying analysis. Not common that TOAW fans are treated to such detailed information and views from under the hood. Thank you.


I have a bit of scenario design information regarding musket/rifle era warfare the you might be interested in reading.


Some years ago I played around with a Civil War era test scenario where I used the editor to make all units (sans engineers and HQs) ranged units. I used the artillery, heavy artillery and horse drawn artillery as is, but with range increased to about ten hexes. All other ranged units (infantry guns, mortars, para artillery) were converted into cavalry and infantry units with ranges around 4 hexes.


Infantry foot movement was adjusted so it took two turns in clear terrain to move thru the kill zone (infantry rifle range) before hand to hand combat was initiated. Of course this takes a custom icon set and lots of monkeying around with unit shell weight, lethality and range characteristics to get things to play right. Battle lines became 2 to 3 hexes apart with volleys fired by the attacker and return fire by the defender, i.e. in this case using artillery counter-battery fire disguised as defender rifle and artillery fire.


In my test scenarios I used a map of 100m hexes. Battle formations lined up 2 to 4 hexes (100m per hex) apart, maneuvered and fired until a weakness developed, then the big charge. Of course this was hot seat play and it was totally biased on what I wanted to see. But I think the principle is sound.


The map scales employed by TOAW have little need for “line of sight” considerations, but the scenario as I’ve described would be affected by line of sight direct fires. I think that some of the line of sight problems can be solved, or at least reduced, by intelligent map design.


I never carried this concept to a playable solution deserving of publishing. However, you seem to be the sort of fellow who enjoys taking TOAW to the limits. Should you ever be interested, you have my address.


Regards, RhinoBones


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Post #: 144
RE: Conclusions: - 2/24/2018 2:15:51 AM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rhinobones

The map scales employed by TOAW have little need for “line of sight” considerations, but the scenario as I’ve described would be affected by line of sight direct fires. I think that some of the line of sight problems can be solved, or at least reduced, by intelligent map design.


Thanks for your comments. I actually have ambitions for some day adding a bit of line-of-sight direct fire to TOAW IV. It would only apply to these new scales below 2.5km/hex.

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Post #: 145
RE: SHILOH 1862 AAR - 2/25/2018 4:06:51 AM   
Hyding

 

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The CSA's defeat on the second day was do in large part to them depleting their ammunition reserves.

Is their second day ammunition shortage modeled in any way?

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Post #: 146
RE: SHILOH 1862 AAR - 2/25/2018 6:30:54 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Narses

The CSA's defeat on the second day was do in large part to them depleting their ammunition reserves.

Is their second day ammunition shortage modeled in any way?

There is no ammo resupply at night.

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Post #: 147
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 3/14/2018 6:44:47 AM   
Nelson1805

 

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Coulld you tell me where did you find this Manpower Losses Chart? I do not know where to look for it at the end of the game. Thank you!

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Post #: 148
RE: Statistical Analysis: - 3/14/2018 2:32:11 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nelson1805



Coulld you tell me where did you find this Manpower Losses Chart? I do not know where to look for it at the end of the game. Thank you!

I didn't "find" it. I created it with Excel (see the attached shot). The loss data was compiled from each turn's inventory of each side. Then the data was used to create the chart in Excel.




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Post #: 149
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