From: Berlin, Germany
Yes, that would trade one impulse of planning security for one impulse of beach/naval asset security. I tend to value the latter higher. Only excuse would be to exploit a M/J rain impulse to sail out (will lead to better chances for a fine impulse for the invasion impulse). I have never seen the Axis pass to stop a spring/summer time D-Day, and I fail to see what they would gain from that. The invasion is going to happen in that situation.. the question rather is whose blood will turn the sea red that day (and the following days, and how many days there will be for that to happen). I think a pass would be appropriate for a S/O invasion threat, but I would not set it up like that dues to weather volatility. You'd have to do that with a CW naval + US land or a double super combined.
Not saying there is only one way..
Here is a basic receipt for the M/J D-Day (to address Peter's remark, move up everything by one impulse and cancel dedicated softening):
Starting M/J from +2A, A want to go first if they win (to have the weather oracle on your side), but will not reroll!
- A-/1 [eot: na]
wildcard impulse if going first, probably obligatory naval or whatever other theatres require
- A2/3 [eot: na]
combined (air), softening beaches and striking X QRF assets (if A has spare logistics HQs take air for reorg efficiency)
- A4/5 [eot: na]
combined (naval), sail out the whole lot, perhaps create a diversion somewhere with non-earmarked assets (naval if other theatres call for one)
- X5/6 [eot: -1/0]
X reaction to the choice of sea zone and repositions QRF assets and beach defenses, perhaps curing some beaches. Passing maybe..
- A6/7 [eot: 0/1]
this better be a fine weather impulse, double land, last minute ground strikes followed by invasions, make sure to reorg your beaches where they end up in face down
- X7/8 [eot: 1/2]
Panzers and HQs rush to the beaches, probably clearing out the screens, perhaps OChit overruning some and attacking a beach or two
- A8/9 [eot: 2/3]
CW combined, US land offensive, exfil invasion assets and swap in armored spearhead. Immediately OChit and blitz with these priorities:
- if your beaches are disconnected connect them laterally,
- if there are port hexes adjacent, blitz laterally with invasion support to secure the ports,
- if your beaches are connected and no ports are in reach, blitz inlands on as many connected hexes (two or three hopefully), basically pushing the whole incursion one hexrow inlands. All you need are some /R or better results. This is the most fragile phase usually. If done from less than three beach-hexes some will end up understacked and exposed to counter attack. It is also the reason single or double hex beaches are insufficient to realise the breakout reliably.
This will conserve OChits for exploitation in J/A when you might want to hammer in one per impulse to reach critical mass in France.
Start the D-Day turn from a "+2A". You will be in one of these situations for the next turn:
[A: Allies, X: Axis, #% normal roll (#% with reroll)]
"+2A, A~" (X won M/J, X start, either eot)
"+2A, X~" (A won M/J, A start, X eot)
"+1A, A~" (X won M/J, A start, A eot)
"+1A, X~" (A won M/J, A start, A eot)
Basically: it is not as important to win init in the invasion turn, as it is to start it with a +2 lead. Starting with the +2 lead will deny the reroll to the opposing side and created fair chances to create a flip-flop or at he very least deny a flip-flop (flip-flop against the invaders should be a closed case).
“WiF is like sex: sure, it may give some practical results, but that's not why we do it.”
- Richard P. Feynman, 'WiF, Sex, and the Dual Slit Experiment'.