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anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States?

 
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anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 8/26/2017 6:51:30 PM   
Leadwieght

 

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Hi,

I'm in a PBEM game in which my Axis opponent did not offer the Soviet Union the Borders and Friendship treaty.

Presumably, he intends to occupy Lithuania when given the chance.


In another thread, Bill R. suggested that a clever Soviet response might be to decline to occupy Latvia and Estonia.

Has anyone tried this?

I can see some pros: Germans pretty much have to attack the two remaining Baltic republics when they start Barbarossa.

Does attacking them cause any shift in US mobilization? Do they Baltics have any units of their own?

Cons seem to be that the Wehrmacht will roll through some towns and defensive positions that the Soviets could have contested.

The Wehrmacht will prpobably arrive in the vicinity of Leningrad earlier than usual and trigger Finnish DoW.

So, overall, declining tio occupy the Baltics seems to be a bad move for the Soviets, but am I missing something?

LW
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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 8/26/2017 11:58:31 PM   
sPzAbt653


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I can't answer your specific concerns, but can relate my experience as the Axis vs the Allied computer, with my Axis attacking Russia in 1940 [before the Soviets can occupy the Baltic States]. Lithuania and Latvia fall easily as they have only one small garrison unit. Estonia may be a little harder because of the distance to Kallinn and its' ability to be reinforced by the USSR. [Historically each of these countries had three or four divisions of mobilized infantry, so no match for either Germany or USSR].

Overall, this move makes supply better for the Axis as each of the Baltic States has better supply than if Soviet occupied. It is also easier to get thru them as you are only up against the one garrison unit each. I see only advantages to this if you are attacking Russia in 1940 [which is overall not the best move, but is an option]. It makes me think that if the Axis moves to occupy any of the three, then they should all be occupied by Russia. However, this could be difficult to script given various possibilities.

I have not seen any increase in USA mobilization when I [Axis] have attacked the Baltic States.

Also, you can reach Leningrad quicker, but your line becomes more extended as the advance thru the Minsk-Smolensk area is still slow. Therefore, you usually reach Leningrad with a minimum of units.

(in reply to Leadwieght)
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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 8/27/2017 3:18:18 AM   
Leadwieght

 

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Thanks, sPzAbt653. That's useful information.

Another obvious con to declining to occupy the Baltics is that the USSR doesn't get the MPPs from Riga and Talinn in the turns after occupation.

All in all, a steep price to pay for a buffer that the Germans can easily roll over.

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 9/4/2017 5:47:10 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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One disadvantage to occupying the Baltic States is that your Russian units that appear there when Germany declares War are easily cut off and destroyed before you even get a chance to move them.

(in reply to Leadwieght)
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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 9/6/2017 1:37:05 PM   
Leadwieght

 

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Thanks, HB. I hadn't considered the changed deployment of the Northwest Front units in the event that Latvia is neutral. If the units don't appear around Riga, where do they deploy?

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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 9/6/2017 3:48:24 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Good Question. I believe they come in around Ostropov, but I can't recall if it is North or South of the City.

I am playing a pbem game as the Allies now where the Axis offered the amended borders but I refused. I've never done this before in a pbem game (as this is my first pbem game) so I am curious to see what will happen. As expected my opponent then annexed Lithuania. As I see it the advantages to the Russians are:

1. By not accepting the Treaty revision the Russians do not take the 5% to 8% mobilization hit they would have taken if they had accepted the treaty revision.

2. If Germany does annex Lithuania the Russians gain 10% mobilization.

So the net swing is at least 15% mobilization, which is quite a bit of extra MPPs for Russia.

Of course, the big disadvantage is that by annexing Lithuania the Germans are that much closer to Moscow and Leningrad.


(in reply to Leadwieght)
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RE: anyone tried NOT occupying the Baltic States? - 9/7/2017 1:05:26 PM   
Leadwieght

 

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HB, in your game, if you decide to take the next step and refuse to occupy Latvia and Estonia, I'd be curious to know how that plays out.

One follow-up possibility if one does refuse the Baltic occupation might be to use some of the Northwest Front units to savage the Finns for a turn or two before the Germans get too close to Leningrad. It's quite possible to destroy the Finnish HQ and effectively nullify the threat to Leningrad from the north until 1942. I just had it done to me in a game where the Soviets DID choose to occupy the Baltics. I had to rush German reinforcements to Helsinki Could be even more effective gambit for the Soviets with the extra units appearing near Leningrad instead of down by Riga.

(in reply to Harrybanana)
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