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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2018 6:18:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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10/23/44

Ketoi: Another SSX.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2018 6:22:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: 4EB raids are having an impact.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2018 6:31:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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KB: Returning to Japan, sinking at least one USN sub en route.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/10/2018 6:33:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi:Decent result on the bombardment. Only arty units bombarded.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 12:27:55 PM   
dave sindel

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'm currently reading Barbara Tuchman outstanding Guns of August, about the outbreak and first month of WWI. I believe much of our current world is shaped by the events in this book. Clear, concise ,beautifully written history book. It's like a car crash on ice. you are standing on the brakes, knowing whats is happening, and powerless to change things no matter how hard you try. If any of the major players had done a single thing differently our would today would be entirely different. So may chances for events to turn out differently. The world changed that month.....and a master story teller explains how it happened. Mrs. Tuchman has won the Pulitzer Prize twice, including for this book. She can tell a story. A big book and a great summer read.


I agree with your assessment of The Guns of August. If I may suggest a couple other books of this time period that I think are extremely interesting. Both are by Margaret Macmillan. The War That Ended Peace: How Europe Abandoned Peace for the First World War and Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World. I haven't finished The War That Ended Peace yet. The Paris 1919 book is about the Versailles Peace Conference, and how a lot of the geopolitical problems facing the world today can be traced to decisions made in 1919,

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 12:55:30 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Noted and thank you. Some of the problems go back to the Franco Prussian war and even to Napoleon. Germany and France keep imposing these giant indemnities on whomever lost the last war. Next war it’s payback time. I guess it all had to end in the complete destruction of one or the other

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 6/11/2018 12:56:15 PM >


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 2:40:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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It's unusual to post long after a turn, but I ran this one late Sunday night, took a break, and fell asleep reading in my chair. Here's what happened:

Ketoi Jima: My amphibious TFs began the day one hex from Ketoi, arrived at Ketoi, and didn't unload. The orders were right, so I have no idea what happened. I've never seen that before. The timing was unfortunate, because the big BB TFs bombarded to good effect. I was counting on the LCI(Gs) to add to that effect, but they didn't. And weather socked in the air forces. So when the time came for the Allied deliberate attack, it didn't accomplish anything, including failing to touch three forts. It was limited to just a copule of units, including 5th Aus. Division, which was already beat up and scheduled to withdraw in favor of the incoming 6th US Division. The attack really messed up 5th Aus. Div., leaving it with no undisrupted squads.

Burma: An Allied 3k AV attacked a big enemy stack in the jungle SW of Toungoo at 1:2 odds. The Japanese took much heavier casualties, and their entire MLR may destabilize. I'm not quite ready for that, as I'd prefer to crack through in a few weeks, but I'll work with it if it happens now.



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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 2:43:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: Erik dropped new minefields at Ketoi. Allied MSWs handled things pretty well, thought at least one ship (PF) took a hit.

Today the amphibs began unloading. As hoped for, the LCI(G)s seemed to have a strong impact. This is the second of two LCI(G) bombardments that seemed to have an out-sized effect during pre-dawn bombardments and landings.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 2:46:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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10/25/44

Ketoi:




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:01:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: Erik posted LRCAP over Ketoi for the first time, claiming quite a few kills against searching SBDs and TBMs. The main Allied sweep performs well.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:05:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: Main Allied air raid on the day, well escorted, performs well against the LRCAP, but the opposition dampens the impact of the raid, limiting damage to minimal.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:16:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: The Japanese bombardment and the subsequent Allied bombardment seem to go well for the Allies.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:18:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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Burma: This is the troubled hex for Japan. I don't think Erik has reinforcements set to arrive short term. As soon as the Allied stack draws full supply, they'll attack again. It may take several attacks. The Japanese are beginning to bend, but Erik may get reinforcements up in time to shore things up.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:23:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: Pretty even, pretty heavy. Many of the Allied losses (B-25s, P-40s, Hurricanes) are in Burma and are "second string." Many of the Japanese losses are "first string" fighters over Ketoi.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 3:29:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ketoi: 6th Infantry Division comes ashore in good shape, despite only 44% prep. The 100% Amphib Force HQ is the difference-maker. Note fatigue and disruption are very low.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 5:14:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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What's going on beneath the engine.

Ketoi Jima is stoutly defended. The Allies are making slow progress that gives me some hope that the island fortress is being reduced. I'll know at the time of the next attack, the day after tomorrow, whether the progress will be steady. I've already diverted some units scattered about the Pacific to prep for Ketoi, in case things drag out.

Winter descends in just 35 days. Aren't some of the Kuriles (Paramushiro?) in the Arctic Zone? If so, I need to decided whether the invasions will proceed or whether to divert those units, prepping them for targets outside the Arctic. I consider it unlikely that I'll invade Para this year, but I would like to take a crack at either or both Onnekotan and Shisukotan, the two island next north of Ketoi.

Erik has lots of air bases and lots of aircraft. He's playing cautiously to limit a massive Mariannas Turkey Shoot that might gut his air force. But he's adjusting to the new paradigm and will attack sooner or later, probably sooner.

I, in turn, use his hesitancy to some good effect. I have LRCAP from Death Star and from Shikuka providing cover for all the TFs moving between Shikuka and Ketoi. This is not a perfect system - there are risks and eventually I'll take my hits. But it helps alot to not have Death Star anchored to that particular service.

Taking Ketoi is vital by the medium term, I think, but the real key is maintaining the newly-achieved naval superiority while also working to whittle down Erik's fighter corps.

While Ketoi and all of the Sea of Oktohsk region is the scene of action, things are beginning to ramp up elsewhere, especially in Burma.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 5:29:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Ketoi Jima is stoutly defended. The Allies are making slow progress that gives me some hope that the island fortress is being reduced. I'll know at the time of the next attack, the day after tomorrow, whether the progress will be steady. I've already diverted some units scattered about the Pacific to prep for Ketoi, in case things drag out.


Definitely a bit of a slog. The difference is you will probably throw hit out of here and you troops will replenish and be ready to do this again. He loses everything he send here and it looks like he has some good units.

Thinking long, long term.....this may go into late 1945, 1946. You will get a ton of B-17G's...which are terrific, but don't have the legs of the B-24's and B-29's. Again...you get a ton of them. Plan to base them somewhere where they can make a difference
my 2 cents

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 5:43:07 PM   
Canoerebel


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My guesstimate when taking over was that the game would last into 1946. That's probably the same, though there's a small chance it might end earlier.

Sikhalin Island or Hokkaido or even China/Korea should make for good B-17G bases.

I think the Allies will simply concentrate on taking the Kuriles and eventually move on to Hokkaido, Korea or China. It's a tough nut area but it allows me to combine all my forces - air, sea, ground - most efficiently. If I openeed a new front on Formosa or China, I'd be dividing my forces, allowing Erik to combine and strike more effectively.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 6:56:39 PM   
BBfanboy


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I'm pretty sure all of the Kuriles are in the Arctic Zone. I think there is a list in the manual. Will look for it.

EDIT: Firstly - here is a piece of the manual showing the cold zone effects:

Cold Zones during the winter impact
ground units the same way as Malaria Zones (above), with the following added penalties:
»» Ships moving in Cold Zones during the winter will suffer
operational system damage at double the normal rate.
»» All base construction in Cold Zones during winter takes twice as long.
»» Air units will fly 25% less aircraft on strike-type Missions.
»» Ground units unloading at an enemy base/beach or into a non-base hex with an
enemy unit will suffer roughly three times the losses they would normally suffer.
The areas covered by the Cold Zones are shown on the weather map.


Now it gets a bit contradictory because the text of the manual prior to this section does not mention the Kuriles in the cold zones at all, but the section above says the weather map shows it. When I look at my Weather Map, the eastern half of the Kuriles from about Shimushiri Jima is shaded for the cold zone area. So I was half right!

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 6/11/2018 7:05:56 PM >


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 7:06:22 PM   
Canoerebel


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I checked - Uruppu Jima and points west, including Etorofu, are Temperate Zone. Shimishura and points east and north are Cold Zone.

Sikhalin Island is also Cold Zone.

So I have to do some figuring. I have alot of troops prepped for points from Uruppu up to Paramushiro. I'm nearly positive I won't trigger the latter this year. I'll make decisions about the others following the next Allied deliberate attack. I'll lean towards invading at least one and perhaps two of the others.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 8:48:54 PM   
Lokasenna


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I've never noticed much impact from the winter zone beyond Sys damage on ships.

Any effects on your units are also felt by his units, and you have, as the Geico commercials, MORE.

Construction is slower? Allies don't have to care if they bring enough engineers. Sys damage on ships? Allied ships generally have a smaller "repair density" (they repair faster) and they have more ships. Higher operational losses for planes? OK, this one actually swings towards Japan in some cases, but the Allies have deep pools for some models and also lower service ratings basically across the board.

Etc.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/11/2018 8:51:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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The biggest impact is invasions. Contested invasions are a very bad idea during the winter, as is reinforcing a beachhead.
If I'm going to invade in the Cold Zone, I have to do so by November 30 or wait until March 1.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 2:52:41 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The biggest impact is invasions. Contested invasions are a very bad idea during the winter, as is reinforcing a beachhead.
If I'm going to invade in the Cold Zone, I have to do so by November 30 or wait until March 1.


Why? Winter doesn't affect unload rate, does it?

The extra fatigue/disruption seems minimal.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 2:56:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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The rulebook says roughly 3x damage in landing. My experience has been consistent with that, though it's somewhat dated. For those reasons, contested amphibious landings in a Cold Zone get clobbered. Am I wrong?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 3:22:32 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The rulebook says roughly 3x damage in landing. My experience has been consistent with that, though it's somewhat dated. For those reasons, contested amphibious landings in a Cold Zone get clobbered. Am I wrong?


I have always believed ("belief" being operative) that the quoted manual section refers to the "17 men and an MG lost over the side while loading"-type messages you get in landings. Maybe five squads, occasionally a tank, three trucks. The manual never speaks to disruption as being "losses." In a multi-division landing 3x the normal level of such losses is not a problem. Certainly not worth waiting four extra months. If you need it, land on it. Time is the enemy.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 3:23:44 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The rulebook says roughly 3x damage in landing. My experience has been consistent with that, though it's somewhat dated. For those reasons, contested amphibious landings in a Cold Zone get clobbered. Am I wrong?


I have always believed ("belief" being operative) that the quoted manual section refers to the "17 men and an MG lost over the side while loading"-type messages you get in landings. Maybe five squads, occasionally a tank, three trucks. The manual never speaks to disruption as being "losses." In a multi-division landing 3x the normal level of such losses is not a problem. Certainly not worth waiting four extra months. If you need it, land on it. Time is the enemy.



+1

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 3:30:13 PM   
Canoerebel


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The invasion targets are hugely defended - Erik knows what he's doing. The invasions are tough enough as it is. Taking 3x losses (however those losses occur - disruption, disablements, destroyed, whatever) is a serious consideration.

I've engaged in Cold Zone invasions before, on a smaller scale. They were decimated by the contested landings. John III tried the same in counter invading Paramushiro in one of our early games. His force got mauled.

Have you guys tried it with massed invasions of heavily dug in armies on Cold Zone islands (I emphasize massed only because a division vs. a brigade might not extrapolate well to four divisions against the equivalent of two or three)? I prefer definitive information on the order of "been there, tried it, no issue" before I'd try it. Otherwise, I'd rather wait the three (not four) months. In the meantime, I'll have plenty of other battles ongoing, so I won't be losing/wasting any time.

Does that make sense?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 4:22:29 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The invasion targets are hugely defended - Erik knows what he's doing. The invasions are tough enough as it is. Taking 3x losses (however those losses occur - disruption, disablements, destroyed, whatever) is a serious consideration.

I've engaged in Cold Zone invasions before, on a smaller scale. They were decimated by the contested landings. John III tried the same in counter invading Paramushiro in one of our early games. His force got mauled.

Have you guys tried it with massed invasions of heavily dug in armies on Cold Zone islands (I emphasize massed only because a division vs. a brigade might not extrapolate well to four divisions against the equivalent of two or three)? I prefer definitive information on the order of "been there, tried it, no issue" before I'd try it. Otherwise, I'd rather wait the three (not four) months. In the meantime, I'll have plenty of other battles ongoing, so I won't be losing/wasting any time.

Does that make sense?


Checking the dates of my Kuriles invasions, they were in April, so not cold weather.

I am wondering, though, if your previous contested landings (and John's) were not just going to get roughed up anyway, or rolled poorly. I guess the question is really this: do you need the islands? If you need them, it's as Bullwinkle says - time is your enemy, so don't wait 4 months (you only have 16 months remaining to you before the clock expires).

If you don't need them... well, why bother? You've got bombers coming out of your ears, Shikuka can be level 9 and remain outside of feasible IJN bombardments longterm (he can't maintain the price he paid for the last one), and you can just keep the airfields closed while you move on to other targets.

FWIW, in your situation I'd be taking them. Landings may be slightly delayed to allow for further pounding via big guns and bombers, but I don't see the point of subterfuge at this stage and location. Assuming you're prepared for it on any given day, his fleet coming out to offer battle only helps you strategically.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 4:28:23 PM   
palioboy2

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'm currently reading Barbara Tuchman outstanding Guns of August, about the outbreak and first month of WWI. I believe much of our current world is shaped by the events in this book. Clear, concise ,beautifully written history book. It's like a car crash on ice. you are standing on the brakes, knowing whats is happening, and powerless to change things no matter how hard you try. If any of the major players had done a single thing differently our would today would be entirely different. So may chances for events to turn out differently. The world changed that month.....and a master story teller explains how it happened. Mrs. Tuchman has won the Pulitzer Prize twice, including for this book. She can tell a story. A big book and a great summer read.


One of the very best history books I have ever read. I think I have read it 3 times now and would suggest it to anyone

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 6/12/2018 4:36:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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It's a complicated situation. I want to take these islands but don't wish to get my troops unnecessarily messed up, beyond the expected battle casualties, in the process. My experience is that Cold Zone landings will well and truly mess them up.

Why do I want these islands? The are on my LOC, of course, but beyond that they hold more than a half million enemy troops. The Allies are here in huge numbers, having succeeded in drawing the Japanese into a decisive battle. It's been a meat grinder, but thus far the Japanese navy has suffered a serious setback. The battle in the air hasn't been one-sided, but the Allies are making progress there. That leaves the ground battle. At some point, sometime, somewhere, the Japanese army must be attacked and defeated. This is the most efficient environment possible - even though the Kuriles are strongly defended, enemy troops are isolated and the Japanese navy and air forces are at a disadvantage, to one extent or another. This is a compact fighting zone that has many advantages over others. Eventually, the Japanese positions will begin to fall, and then Japan will be really hurting. If the Allies go into the spring of '45 having taking most or all of the upper Kuriles, and having in the process whittled away the Japanese navy, air force and army, then they'll be in a strong position to take the war to Japan proper.

I think I'm right about invading in Cold Zones, but more importantly I don't think it's necessary. The current plan is to invade two more Kuriles before winter sets end, giving me plenty to do during the three-month winter effects. If I run out of things to do, I'd turn to Uruppu, which is outside the Cold Zone.

Final plans haven't been made yet. If Ketoi suddenly falls, I may elect to proceed with Paramushrio this year. But if Ketoi drags out, as currently seems likely, I'll focus on two islands during the winter months, with the possibility of Uruppu as a third.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/12/2018 4:57:54 PM >

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