New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962 [UPDATED 12 JUL 17]

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Rory Noonan
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New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962 [UPDATED 12 JUL 17]

Post by Rory Noonan »

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Playable Side: United States
Date: 22 October 1962
Region: Carribean and West Atlantic
Duration: 7 Days

It's 1962 and the world is on the brink of nuclear war. Take the role of Commander South Atlantic Theatre, United States Navy (COMSOLANT) and fight to turn back the Soviet build-up in Cuba and maintain the security of the continental United States while avoiding escalation into all-out nuclear warfare.

Design Notes
This scenario makes use of Lua scripting to add various features and mechanics.

Tension
The actions of the player will affect the decisions of the AI. If the player does not put enough pressure on Cuba and the Soviet Union by reconnoitring the island of Cuba and identifying and shadowing Soviet merchants and naval vessels, then the AI will become more likely to ignore the diplomatic steps historically taken to resolve the situation. On the other hand, too much pressure may spark a retaliation and escalation into a limited conventional exchange or all-out nuclear war.

Activation of Units
Many units available to the player throughout the scenario are not 'deployed' at scenario start. USN ships participating in the scenario will become available at their home ports in the first few hours of the scenario, while USAF units can be requisitioned from the special actions menu. Beware that the activation of 'offensive' units (particularly with nuclear capability) will increase tension, and therefore the likelihood of a 'misunderstanding'.

DEFCON
The United States armed forces defense readiness condition (DEFCON) is modelled in this scenario. Along with tension, DEFCON influences the AI's actions. The player will be able to raise DEFCON one level via special action. However, the consequences of this could be significant.


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This is a really ambitious scenario that spans an entire week, and makes heavy use of Lua scripting to allow the AI to respond realistically to player actions and scripted events. This is a beta release for testing, and as such only the first 24 hours or so are really 'fleshed out' with activities for the player.

It is possible to have the scenario end historically (merchants turned around, tense stand-off but no fighting) or spiral out of control to the level of nuclear war.

I'd really appreciate any feedback players have, particularly relating to the behaviour of the AI and the tension mechanic. Because it is so script-heavy (the civilian ship traffic script alone is over 25,000 characters) if there's any bugs or other problems please post a save file, otherwise I will probably not be able to easily reproduce it.

UPDATED 0900Z 12 JUL 17

From Beta 5 onwards the scenario will be CoW only. I have included a copy of the intermediate Beta 4 which fixes some bugs from previous versions and is compatible with non-CoW setups.

Change Log:
(Task) SD-51: Add NAS Bermuda - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Task) SD-50: Add early P-3A squadrons at NAS Pax River and NAS Brunswick - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Feature) SD-49: Add Guantanamo Air Defences via Special Action - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Feature) SD-46: Add aircraft damage, out-of-comms and other CoW features - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Bug) SD-45: Bug after save/load: USSR_B59_Zone failing - Fixed v0.24 Beta 5
(Feature) SD-27: Add Operation Blue Moon - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Feature) SD-22: Add Key West Air Defences via Special Action - Complete v0.24 Beta 5
(Bug) SD-44: MiGs chasing early AAW patrols right up the Florida peninsula, - Fixed v0.23 Beta 4
(Bug) SD-42: Lua script execution error - SovNucClassified - Fixed v0.23 Beta 4
Attachments
Seven Days..3 Beta 5.zip
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Primarchx
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Primarchx »

Wow, is this great! Already have Medium Tension by activating a couple of recon squadrons, an ELINT squadron and a IFR squadron.

ETA - now just four hours in. Have run an RF-8, RF-101 and U-2 recon over Cuba finding many missile sites. However haven't activated any other units other than ships made available in ports. Now tension is High. I assume this isn't good?
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Primarchx
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Primarchx »

Strange behavior. Cuban MiG-19 intercepts a flight of Phantoms off of Key West. Are you sure you want them to go that far north? Another from the same flight eventually overflies the Keys, violating US airspace.
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lamboman43
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by lamboman43 »

How long did it take you to make this? It is really impressive!
stolypin
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by stolypin »

Looks really cool.

Next on my list.
Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

Thanks Primarchx, I'll add a no-nav zone for the Cuban side in the next update. It's a fine balance between having the Cubans react to the threat of having their airspace violated versus having them sit in their bases and watch U2s etc fly over.

The tension will cool down given time, if you activate enough things at once you can make things get out of hand pretty quick, but if you space it out then it is less likely that the apocalypse will come. This is intentional and models the Cubans/USSR reacting to a significant escalation in US readiness.

In the case you describe it's probably the constant flights over Cuba that are escalating the tension so much. Without giving too much away, if you spend any significant time over Cuba the Cubans will not appreciate it. If you spend enough time in their sky, they will shoot you down eventually.
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Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

ORIGINAL: lamboman43

How long did it take you to make this? It is really impressive!

Thanks! It took probably 40 or so hours to get to this stage. The most tedious part was researching OOB etc. Scripting obviously took a while but was more fun because it's a creative task rather than just finding the right info.
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lamboman43
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by lamboman43 »

That time definitely reflects in the quality!
Zaslon
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Zaslon »

Very interesting Apache.
Did you read 'One minute to Midnight' by Michael Dobbs?

If we use depth charges to a soviet submarine there is a random event that can trigger submarine response and start the nuclear war?
I am talking about the USS Beale incident when they use depth charges versus B-59 Soviet submarine. Gladly, Soviet submarine didn't defend himself and the nuclear war didn't started that day. But...Nuclear war was very very close thanks to the USS Beale Officers. If the soviet submarine decided to take measures to response....
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Kids think about Iran and Amateurs think about Russia, but professionals think about China
Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

Hey Zaslon, there isn't an event of that nature... yet. It is on te drawing board however. One of the hurdles is that there is a technical issue with adding nuclear torps to the submarines (reported in tech support). I can work around this but if prefer to do it properly.

I have got Dobb's book on loan, but haven't read through it -- just used the maps so far.
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Jorm
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Jorm »

Very nice work

I started but had to stop, ill give it another go when i have some more time

One question, i had some issues with my aircraft firing weapons ones the Cubans when red, i had to manually set weapons relase for every one , not sure if its something dumb ive done.

anyways great work !!

Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

Interesting. The Cubans aren't specifically set to go red at any point (in isolation of other factors), so not sure what precipitated that. Are you able to post a save so I can check it out?
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Primarchx
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Primarchx »

Good info, apache85. I would suggest some guidelines to players about tension and how it escalates. I specifically activated recon units to keep tension low (there's a low tension note by them). Also some guidance about Cuban overflight - does tension scale on number of aircraft, areas overflown, time over Cuba? Great work!
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mikkey
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by mikkey »

Very interesting scenario, the possibility to make it without a fight is nice. As Primarchx's writing, a description of the tension (when, why...) would be appropriate. Thanks apache85!
Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

Spoilers below.

So tension at the moment is set to a random number between -10 and 10 at game start. Every hour the tension is reduced by a random number between 0 and 2. Recon unit activation has a tension effect of roughly +5, and any US aircraft entering Cuban airspace increases tension by 15. This can happen once every hour (resets on the hour, so it is possible to trigger it twice if you arrive at 0955 and stay past 1005 for example). I think based on your feedback I will make it so that recon aircraft have a lower tension effect and fighters have a higher tension effect while bombers will have an extreme effect. Historically Castro was infuriated by the constant airspace violations, and I wanted to model that but I guess considering this is a game I can give a little leeway so the player doesn't get bored.

As for what tension actually does, it is used to calculate probability of a lot of events. An example is that when an aircraft violates Cuban airspace, an event fires that generates a random number between 1 and 100. If this number is below the tension level (obv more likely as tension increases) then a random amount of Cuban SA2 batteries change their ROE to weapons free. There is also a check every hour to see if Cuba or the USSR should go hostile. If tension is high enough, then another check is made using the random number between 1 and 100, if this number is below the tension level then postures change. If tension is low enough and other criteria are met, then the Cubans can also request a cease-fire.

As for how transparent I can make this I will have to think about it, not only is it complex but the whole idea behind adding this mechanic in was to introduce uncertainty and make the AI less predictable. I really don't want to provide enough info for players to 'game' the AI, but seeing as there needs to be a better explanation I will think of something [:)]
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Primarchx
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Primarchx »

Thanks for the insight. Subtlety is a hard thing to work into computer games as feedback and standard practices can be hard to grasp. Having some idea of the mechanic helps players behave in a more historical way if they have a good idea of the constraints and how to attempt to work within them.
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lowchi
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by lowchi »

As for what tension actually does, it is used to calculate probability of a lot of events. An example is that when an aircraft violates Cuban airspace, an event fires that generates a random number between 1 and 100. If this number is below the tension level (obv more likely as tension increases) then a random amount of Cuban SA2 batteries change their ROE to weapons free. There is also a check every hour to see if Cuba or the USSR should go hostile. If tension is high enough, then another check is made using the random number between 1 and 100, if this number is below the tension level then postures change. If tension is low enough and other criteria are met, then the Cubans can also request a cease-fire.

This is brilliant!
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mikmykWS
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by mikmykWS »

Amazing work! Can see the time, effort and care put into this. Using many of the features etc. we've added and you've used them in your own way brilliantly. BZ Apache!

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JPFisher55
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by JPFisher55 »

I am having a problem with my air to air a/c and missiles with this otherwise excellent scenario. I am using 936.6. My a/c on air patrols will not engage the hostile Cuban a/c nor will they automatically fire
missiles at them. When I order a manual fire, the dialogue box says the a/c's weapons are set to hold status even though the a/c's status on air targets is tight or free. I have not encountered this issue with any other scenario using 936.6. I attach saved game file.
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Rory Noonan
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RE: New Beta Release: Seven Days in October, 1962

Post by Rory Noonan »

Thanks for the heads-up JPFisher55, I'm going to do some work on the scenario tonight so I will look at it then. Hopefully it's an easy fix.
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