Turn 9 20-August-1941 Economic War
What will the HI and Arms count be after the capture of all these towns?
HardLuckYetAgain's wish is our very desire!
This turn the advance of Axis forces meant the factories at Kramatorskaya have been lost by the Soviet Union. In addition the factories at Stalino, Makeevka, Gorlovka and Mariupol cannot currently be evacuated - if we assume these are lost too total Soviet indutrial losses are
86 Arms (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 6 Dnepropetrovsk, 8 Poltava, 15 Kharkhov, 3 Kramatorskaya, 1 Mariupol, 29 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka)
37 Hvy (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 2 Dnepropetrovsk, 4 Kharkhov, 2 Kramatorskaya, 5 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka))
25 Vehicle (20 Kharkhov, 5 Stalino)
This turn the Il-2 factories were evacuated from Voronezh. It is worth taking a perspective on the impact these evacuations will have, and what the bombing for the last 4 turns of them will mean.
The Il-2 in War in the East v1.10 Bitter End
The Red Air Force starts the game with 217 Il-2 Bombers, and gains an extra 1 from an airgroup that arrives in turn 1 just after the Axis bombing. There are two Il-2 factories at Voronezh which start with a very small production run which increases by 3 every turn until it reaches a capacity of 45 a turn. If undisturbed they will produce 2,742 Il-2s each until they are upgraded in October 1942. In addition the MiGG-3 factories in Moscow upgrade to Il-2 factories in January 1942. Typically they will have already been evacuated from Moscow and do have to build capacity from scratch anyway. If undisturbed they will produce 1,440 Il-2s each.
However in many games the Il-2 factories at Voronezh do have to get evacuated and typically before they have built up to full capacity- which means they stay producing at only that level for another 17 turns. If, as in this game, an Il-2 factory is evacuated on turn 8 it would stay on a capacity of only 27 until turn 25 - meaning even if they never ceased production due to damage they would produce 2,436 Il-2s only. But the probabilities are that we should expect production to cease in just under 9 of those turns meaning another 239 never get built for each factory. In other words evacuation would reduce production by about 545 aircraft each (just under a fifth) compared to if they had never been evacuated. Clearly by leaving the evacuation to later this amount can be reduced as capacity is frozen at a higher level for those 17 turns. Or conversely if the evacuation occurs earlier a smaller amount will be produced.
But in this game we started bombing the Il-2 factories on turn 5 meaning they have remained on a capacity of 15 each. If this remained so the factory could only produce 987 Il-2s and likely less due to damage sometimes stopping production.
However having started bombing the factories on turn 5 the Soviets have evacuated the factory on turn 8 and to a location where our bombers are unlikely to reach. Given that they are currently on a capacity of 15, and will take 17 turns to repair, we would expect them to produce 1,640 Il-2s. This is more than a thousand less than an untouched factory, or 600 less than if evacuated without bombing. The bombing of these factories has only consisted of eight bombing missions - four for each factory, no more was possible as they are in the same hex which can only be bombed twice in a turn.
Vulnerability of expanding factories
The key fact has been they have been damaged by only 1% - how much more than 1% mattered little. Factories at the start of their expansion with a way to go before they reach full capacity are very vulnerable to massively disproportionate losses of production as a result.
Which begs the question which other factories are like that?
Kharkhov/ Stalingrad/ Gorky T-34 M1941 factory (51/26/2 capacity turn 1 and expands to 70)
Engels/ Saratov/ Tatischevo Yak-1 factories (4/4/5 capacity on turn 1 and expands to 25)
Voronezh/N Moscow BM-13-116 Rocket Launcher (1/1 capacity on turn 1 and expands to 32)
These are all within bomber range in 1941 with large expansions - we have been bombing them all! Whatever your general attitude to strategic bombing it should be part of the game plan of every Axis player to get and keep these at at least 1 % damage at the earliest date possible. The effects are so overwhelming that I cannot really see an argument against. And doing this, even if it is with a night bombing mission, is eminently doable.
What should the Soviet reaction be - perhaps do everything possible to defend these. But always being able to avoid just 1% damage is not realistic. Given these circumstances it would be better for a Soviet player to evacuate these factories as early as possible out of range of Axis bombers so that they can repair and start expanding as soon as possible.
< Message edited by Telemecus -- 10/4/2017 11:25:42 AM >