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RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming

 
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RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/6/2019 8:17:27 PM   
Crackaces


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The JanisJarvi is reinforced with a new armor unit. Add in some SU's and the Finn's begin to threaten the whole Peninsula. There are two main targets. One) There is a permanent supply that stems from the hex with a star. Grab that hex and all supply has to come from a single rail source. Two) One hex east of Volkov is a rail junction. Cut that rail junction and Supply MP's goes to 30-50 .. add in the mud and everything is isolated ..

Turn 60 is the first step as Finnish Armor makes a debut .. and advances toward the objective ..




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RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/6/2019 8:29:06 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
There are two main targets. One) There is a permanent supply that stems from the hex with a star. Grab that hex and all supply has to come from a single rail source. Two) One hex east of Volkov is a rail junction.

One) was operation Rudolf earlier in the game
Two) was operation Rednose earlier in the game

we are still waiting for operation Reindeer?


< Message edited by Telemecus -- 5/7/2019 11:06:39 AM >

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RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/6/2019 8:52:50 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
There are two main targets. One) There is a permanent supply that stems from the hex with a star. Grab that hex and all supply has to come from a single rail source. Two) One hex east of Volkov is a rail junction.

a) was operation Rudolf earlier in the game
b) was operation Rednose earlier in the game

we are still waiting for operation Reindeer?



Mission is accomplished on turn 65 Although I suspect M60 will be making an all out effort at Volkov to push these units back ..

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RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/6/2019 8:57:15 PM   
Crackaces


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On turn 60 the Soviet Manpower is about 5.6M with just under 5.5M ready and deployed in the field. The picture below shows the stats. The reader can calculate things like man/gun ratios and man/AFV ratios. This trend will continue to worsen as we progress to turn 65 .. about 5.1M. The goal is to hold off of 6.1M as long as possible. When that threshold is crossed .. the Germans will be thinking about a strategic retreat using armor reserves rather than pincers ..




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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 10:38:09 PM   
Crackaces


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While M60 cooks his side of the turn I thought I would post some thoughts on Turn 61.

One discovery is that the Soviets have moved their airbases moved back to 20 hexes beyond our MLR. This happens every turn so this is systematic by the Soviet side. Why this is important is that our fighters have a range of 20 hexes. The other strategy M60 has employed is keeping a minmal amount of things to attack near the radii where the Germans can do fighter sweeps. So we had a pretty mundane strategic turn.






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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 10:39:27 PM   
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Just to show M60's cunning plan a little further ..




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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 10:42:41 PM   
Crackaces


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U2VS:

M60's propaganda machine continues to spew disinformation on the use of U2VS but the records do not lie .. the Soviets have a secret weapons program based on the U2VS ... our intelligence confirms with high confidence this is verified.




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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 10:45:35 PM   
Crackaces


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Weather:

We have random weather .. the central zone will be mud. This will not effect the North but partisan attacks in the Central zone will be more difficult to hot and return to the original garrison. The Germans will need to plan ..




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< Message edited by Crackaces -- 5/13/2019 10:46:06 PM >


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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 11:27:12 PM   
Crackaces


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TURN 61 Center:

M60 is a very aggressive player. I have read his game vs Pelton that went to turn 105.

I tend to plan along the lines "what are you thinking that I am thinking you are thinking ..." One thing is having at least 9 CV defense per hexside. During this match M60 has exploited every time I have left a position vulnerable. Sometimes I leave a weaker position with the thought .. "Ok the Soviets know the Germans can So far the Germans have been able to isolate the attacking units over time with counterattacks. By this time I am thinking "so they wont do that .."

I leave a weak position thinking I can leverage forces to the prime objective (Saratov for center), But the Germans isolated Cav during the winter .. on turn 55, and .. on turn 60 you saw the Soviets attacked with a strong force .. the Germans counter attack and pocket strong forces:








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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 11:35:14 PM   
Crackaces


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AGN:

The plan now for the North is to optimize the command points. Assign Germans to Finns and Italians .. electric slide stronger units from the North and replace with not so strong units.

The command optimizations is very simple .. there are few good commanders and I just need to have enough command points to avoid penalties in the North and the Germans can hold.
The Center and South are hungry for better TO%E units. There would be one danger. The Soviets shift the fulcrum to where I weaken the line. I calculate that with 5.1 to 5.5 M manpower that would leave the Soviet center and south very vulnerable. My thoughts are that the Soviets can keep the Germans away from Saratov until turn 70 only if they concentrate all of the most powerful Soviet forces -- especially armor at key places. Thus I can electric slide the line:




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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/13/2019 11:38:17 PM   
Crackaces


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SOUTH:

The south is a contest of flipping hexes. The Soviets are gathering units to mount a defense but have yet to establish a main line of resistance. The 1st Panzer army is advancing East and south of Stalingrad to cutoff LOC.




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RE: Turn 61: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/14/2019 10:47:51 AM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
U2VS:

M60's propaganda machine continues to spew disinformation on the use of U2VS but the records do not lie .. the Soviets have a secret weapons program based on the U2VS ... our intelligence confirms with high confidence this is verified.


M60A3TTS may show screenshots again showing he has no U2VS airgroups. He may even try to claim it is this bug http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4472786

But we all know M60A3TTS is a secret U2VS fanboy .... and there is no denying it now!

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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 2:40:58 PM   
Crackaces


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TURN 62: Air War

First and foremost, I want to recognize that M60 took a game forward that strategically for the Soviets was pretty bleak. If I could paint a picture using chess as an analogy .. Black has lost a rook and a queen while white has lost a couple of knights .. not a pretty picture .. but M60 plotted along and has given a challenging game.


The very last recon (on the most northern airbase at Gorky) showed no fighters flying anymore. There is no way to check that all three fighter bases did not run out of fuel or ammo - but that is unlikely. If there is fuel and ammo then the air doctrine is clearly 35%. Only one of their hurricane air groups seems to be left on night missions. This seems unchanged from turn 61.

Unfortunately we also ran out of bombers with under 33% to do the last airfield bombing. And Gorky had already been bombed twice. So they did run out of fighters at just the right final moment! If the Soviets had left their percentage required to fly even one bit higher, we would be back to the happy old times for the bombers!

The Germans paid the price in dive bombers and level bombers. They lost ten F/FBs for every single seat fighter we lost. We raised Gorky fighter factory damage from 24% to 31%. After repair in the logistics phase that represents a 4% gain in damage. A lot less than last turn. Mainly because the first raid was not good. At that rate I am guessing the Soviets will evacuate in four turns, so it is worth it still. Or in future turns M60A3TTS will move a lot more fighters there. Once Gorky fighter factory is evacuated, the Germans can concentrate on the enemy away from the Gorky Flak brigades.

Gorky fighter status at the end of the bombing phases:





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< Message edited by Crackaces -- 5/15/2019 3:51:14 PM >


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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 2:48:33 PM   
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As previous discussed above .. the strategy and operational guideline for the North is to have enough fort level and CV to have 9CV per hexside. This is with an outright redistribution of forces toward the center with the eventually goal of isolating Saratov. In certain places the Germans have left weak spots that the Soviets could take advantage of .. but at the cost of the forces in the center. So the Germans have been a little lazy at times .... This might come to haunt them in the winter when the rivers freeze ...




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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 2:54:21 PM   
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I mentioned above that M60 has been a formidable opponent. I think it is worth demonstrating the state of the Soviet air force and what M60 took over. The graph below shows fighter losses as compared to the Germans calculating production. The German strategy is to reduce production while engaging a maximum attrition effort. The losses have to be better than 1 German fighter frame to 4 Soviet frames for points purposes but even better than that from a strategic level. The Germans have plenty of bombers in this game not enough fighters.




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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 2:58:32 PM   
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The below diagram shows the current state of the Soviet air force for planning purposes. M60 took over turn 55. You can see a steady increase in interceptors from that turn on. A clear change in strategies as previously covered in this AAR. Implementing these strategies earlier rather than later would yield a much better Soviet Air force. The Soviets should be ready for 1943 ...




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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 3:12:12 PM   
Crackaces


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On turn 61 .. units are assigned to the Italian 8th Army HQ. Humorously the HQ is a full 400 miles behind the lines "just to be safe"

On a more serious note, the assignment of the Germans to the Italians is far better than either the command penalty for too many units within a command or the 20% penalty in CV's from assignment to OKH. The 9CV per hexside guideline also has to consider the adjusted CV before combat. This is a non alt CV game and thus not every penalty is apparent ... until the Soviets breakthrough




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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 3:25:55 PM   
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There are postings that discuss doubling up rail repair. One such possibility is early around Odessa. Here the Germans show that by doubling up on FBDs and taking advantages of curves in the line, they are able to repair more than the "normal" four hexes a turn on rail lines. In one case this turn the Germans repair 7 continuous hexes of an important rail line to the Black Sea.

This is extremely important as the Germans have Mountain Units roaming the Caucasus Mountains terrorizing the Soviets. Should they exceed 100 hexes (very possible in the mud), this would precipitate a disaster. The other key point is that this will be the supply anchor for establishing a German presence on the Caspian Sea. In certain spots although .. one partisan attack will spell doom for these forces ....(cue the drama music)






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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/15/2019 4:33:41 PM   
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TURN 62: JanisJarvi

The Janisjarvi is breaking open this turn ... so what is different? In the combat report below you can see that now the Soviets are defending with a lower fort level and taking a command penalty. The Finn's are adding firepower with SU's. Particularly engineers and heavy artillery with added flak. The 5.58:1 results comes from firepower disrupting Soviet devices and squads as the initial CV odds is much less. Look at almost 400 vs 70 tubes. Add in the penalty for the 63rd and .... the result is that the Janisjarvi line is breaking. By turn 65 the strategy will become quite apparent.





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< Message edited by Crackaces -- 5/15/2019 4:37:21 PM >


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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 7:02:47 AM   
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Hi guys. Fantastic AAR. A couple of tangential ideas:
1. Espionage. Perhaps an approved spectator could be asked to pick one post per week from the oppositions AAR and share that with the other side? Just a thought.
2.Did you know there's a download able enigma machine with extra rotors etc free online? You can Google it. Could be fun to share the occasional key command or thought in an encrypted format.

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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 9:05:50 AM   
Telemecus


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Redmarkus5 - it is wonderful to get one of the great old pioneers of the team game to look at us here! I bet you never imagined the seed you planted would sprout fully so many years later!

If you see the team protocol we started developing on post 12 of this AAR http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4250683&mpage=1 then you will see pretty much all of it is in response to the problems identified in Thunder in the East I and Thunder in the East II team games!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Redmarkus5
1. Espionage. Perhaps an approved spectator could be asked to pick one post per week from the oppositions AAR and share that with the other side? Just a thought.
2.Did you know there's a download able enigma machine with extra rotors etc free online? You can Google it. Could be fun to share the occasional key command or thought in an encrypted format.


Neogodhobo in the sign up thread for the 2by3+ team game had that exact idea - see post 78 here http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4340173&mpage=3

My problem with sharing bits of the AAR is you would then game the AAR - you could leave out valuable information. Either you would have to have rules saying what information the AAR had to include - or you could just ask for the information whether or not it was in the AAR. For example you could say give me a screenshot of the map in Area X - so there would be no way to game the information you are given. see post 153 here http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4340173&mpage=6

I am really interested in these ideas, and of creating a game within a game. However I would say most others are still only interested in playing the vanilla game but just in a team setting. So never say never, but you would need all on both sides of a game to want to do it.

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 5/16/2019 9:06:40 AM >

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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:07:01 PM   
Crackaces


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Turn 62: The beginning of the end

From the German perspective, given the Soviet situation with low manpower I would think the best moves are a flexible defense. Keep the Germans burning up MP's and OOB while preparing for turn 70 and anticipated mud. The Soviet's had gained about 200,000 in manpower to this point, but the isolation of Guards units and eventual clean up of the pocket dropped the Soviets about 150,000 men total. More so precious units, or things to get into the Panzers way are being eliminated. It is quite true that many of these men will return to the manpower pool, but not as Guards units. (Although the Soviets cold not build units and fill the Guards units in the filed).

In my opinion, the Soviets diverted the Panzers for one turn but lost the stuff to keep them at bay.






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RE: Turn 62: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:15:09 PM   
Crackaces


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This screen shot shows the end of the turn south of the Oka. Multiple Soviet Corps and divisions have surrendered. Speed bumps are up on the Oka river to burn up Soviet MP's, while keeping pesky Soviets from ZOC'ing the armor.

There are 2 major operational objectives for turn 63. One secure the Oka basin to stretch the line and protect the flanks. Second, and far more important, breakthrough to Penza. I suspect the losses this turn will make the line much more difficult to defend. My thought is that the Soviets will pull forces from the North and allow me to stretch the line. If this does not happen, I suspect there is not enough to hold back 2 concentrated Panzer Armies.




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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:28:25 PM   
Crackaces


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The first Tiger Tank Battle happens on turn 63!

Background: The Germans have fronted a large Soviet salient with the 4th Panzer Army. The purpose of this strategy is to simply keep the Soviets from retreating. The thought is that if the fortified ground is given up the infantry and armor will simply bore holes into the lines with hasty attacks. However, while the Soviets occupy good fortified ground -- it takes strong armor, support units, and sometimes a lot of airpower (ground unit attacks and ground support) to move the Soviets from key hexes.

The attack -- the primary purpose of the attack is to unhinge a strong Soviet position while temporarily isolating 3 Soviet Corps. The total activity can be deduced from the screenshot ... The parachutes bringing in supplies and one lone Soviet stack in the middle ..




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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:36:22 PM   
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TURN 63: Oka to Stalingrad

My comments from Turn 62 come to fruition on turn 63. The map below shows a huge Kessel forming. The 2nd & 3rd Panzer Armies have made a breakthrough toward Penza. The 4th Panzer Army has isolated units South of Stalingrad. The strategic goal is to isolate Saratov.

The small one hex pocket with 4th Panzer Army is quite apparent in this screen shot.

In my opinion, forces from the North needs to rail in and act as speed bumps to slow the Panzers down. A stratgic fexiable defense with armor positioned at the far reaches of the Panzer Division's MP's. The Soviets have different plans for turn 64.




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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:44:57 PM   
Crackaces


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Turn 63: Gorky Air war ..

The Germans decide to have another go at Gorky. The battle starts with three fighter sweeps using airbase bombing - little is lost on either side. But on two bombing runs of Gorky the Germans find Soviet interception ineffective - the damage of the fighter factory increases to 49%. This is a disaster for the industry at Gorky. The Germans no longer have to build damage levels at the Gorky fighter factory, LW forces can easily top it up occasionally to keep it near 50% damage. Our Soviet opponents can leave it at that state producing effectively nothing - or bite the bullet and evacuate it.

Having bombed so many factories and seen them evacuate, Gorky is in effect de-industrialised. We know the Soviet side has left several AA brigades in the city which is a good move as they have had almost perfect predictability every turn our bombers will be there. In future that will not necessarily be so.

With hindsight trying to bomb Gorky's factories AND the nearby fighter base was trying to do too much on turn 62. This turn teh LW just concentrated on the factory, and in effect finished the job. In future LW fighters and bombers can engage the Soviet air platforms - but can choose to not do it over the AA flak of Gorky.

This turn we also started bombing the Kirov light tank factory.

The LW bomber force as a result will be going through a transformation.The focus is on building up Heinkel and Do217E-4 air frames and save it for a special mission - and so will not be as available in the next few turns. The Ju88A-4 will be the level bomber workhorse for now - although they will be joined by 7 Heinkel bomber groups who are withdrawing soon and with replacements off now have very few aircraft left.

With so many airgroups withdrawn or withdrawing, the Luftwaffe is noticeably less capable than it once was.





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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:46:39 PM   
Crackaces


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This turn also saw over 22 manual air swaps - a record number. The Soviet concentration on the Finnish fighters meant the one last remaining biplane fighter was taken out of our fighter groups - and in the pool will convert to a reconnaissance aircraft joining others to equip a new Finnish recon group. With so few strategic bombing targets left in the south, one Rumanian bomber group is being converted to a shorter range model more suited to ground support. The LW air pools management program has a lot of work to do preparing for the imminent start of Ju88D-1 and Bf109 exports.





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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:49:19 PM   
Telemecus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces



How did they loose 4 bombers from none in that fight?

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RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:58:51 PM   
Crackaces


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The State of the LW:

German Fighters

20 Bf109E-3s were exported to Rumania at the start of the game. Most of the withdrawing fighter groups were swapped to Bf109E3s so that the number converted to fighter bombers was minimized. The LW have no E-3s left in the pool and one fighter group left with it, IIJG51 which withdraws on turn 70 and only has 7 aircraft left.

27 Bf109E-7s could have been exported to Slovakia which now has no airgroups and so would never have been used - but the LW prevented any from being exported. There are no E-7s left in the pools and only two fighter groups have it - IJG53 which leaves on turn 66 and has only 8 left, and IIIJG77 which leaves on turn 70 and has only 3 left.

Bar one stab of fighters awaiting an upgrade we have no fighter groups armed with the Bf10F-2 - there are a substantial number in the pool now where the Germans know they will never be exported so will remain there should the Luftwaffe need them in the future.

The remainder of the German fighter air groups have Bf109F4s, the longest range fighters the Luftwaffe will ever have, and Bf109G-2s. Potentially 49 G-2s could be exported now to Finland, and in 1943 58 to Rumania, 59 to Hungary and 15 to Slovakia. None will be exported so long as there are 19 or fewer in the pool. But from October 42 (turn 68) if there are enough F4s in the pool up to 42 will be exported to Hungary. Twin-seat fighter bomber groups with the ZG designation can be converted to Focke-Wulf single seat fighters or fighter bombers, or Me210 A-1 fighter bombers, and then converted to Bf109 single-seat fighter groups the following turn (and be converted back again). The plan is to do this over two turns. But even if all the fighter and ZG groups (apart from the 3 soon withdrawing with E types mentioned above) with F4 and G2 models, there will still be some left in the pools. This is a good thing - it shows that our fighter losses have been light. But it does mean some will have to be exported.

Hungarian fighters can at least be used over a wider geographical area than Finnish fighters. But Hungary has only 1 level bomber group to escort, Finland has 6. Hungary is also getting the more modern Heja II fighter whereas Finland is still making do with pre-war models including the Gladiator biplane. And the Soviet side knows it - they have spent the past two turns targeting them. With the G2 still in production and if German fighter light losses in the current campaign continue it is not certain that even if all German fighter groups were converted to G2 there would always be too few in the pools for exports - so it may happen in the end anyway whatever the choice. And finally the F4 is the longest range German fighter ever. With the Soviet air force keeping its distance we need our longest range fighters. It would be worse to see them export to the shorter range Hungarian variety. So when a choice is needed by turn 68, and the choice is to export the G2 to Finland. (However by keeping the pools of G2 as low as possible teh Germans might still be able to stop the full 49 going to Finland)

The Germans have been producing Focke Wulf fighters and fighter bombers for a while now but they have remained in the pool. In spite of being potentially better performers, their lower range in the current state of the air war makes them less useful. However they remain in the pools and will not be exported. When the air war flips and we are on the defensive, range will matter less to us and the Focke Wulfs will be invaluable.

German Dive (Tac) Bombers

None of these export until 1943. But we have been swapping our airgroups to models that do, and building our pools of models that do not.

German Level Bombers

Until now if there is only one He111H-4 bomber in the pool, it will be exported to be a Hungarian recon aircraft. And similarly any He111H-3 bomber in the pool will be converted to a He111H-4 bomber and then exported as a Hungarian recon aircraft in the same turn. So at the end of the turn for a while now we have made sure there are none of these left in the pool. But next turn is September 1942 when any Heinkels left in the pool will no longer be exported as a Hungarian recon platform. - The LW has successfully made sure none ever were or ever will be. (However 10 He111H-3s were exported to Slovakia at the start of the game). Similarly no Do17Z-2 or Ju86E-2s have been left for export- only one airgroup with a few of each of these models is left and they will be both be withdrawing soon.

For reasons discussed in a previous post we did allow the maximum 15 He111H-6s to be exported to Rumania. The LW now has substantial pools of Ju88 and Do217E-4, and some He111H-6 bombers, all of that will now be never exported. There are also some He177A-1 that will convert to He177A-3 - a conversion we want.

159 Ju88-4 bombers are scheduled to be exported to Finland, Rumania and Hungary in 1943. Our bomber groups were slowly being converted to Ju88A4s through automatic promotions. It remains to be seen if our level bomber losses are so high in the remainder of 1942 that none will ever be exported, or if they will be so low that some must be.

However with the 1942 strategic bombing campaign drawing down its commitment, some of the most experienced Ju88-4 airgroups are for the moment being converted to longer range Heinkels and Do217E-4s for the next stage in our campaign.

German Recon

9 Fi156C have been exported to Finland, 6 to Rumania and 6 to Slovakia. Potentially 76 in all can be exported but further exports have been prevented by keeping the pools low. Similarly exports of FW189A and Do17P-1 have been prevented. But from September 1942 (turn 64) Ju88D-1 could start to be exported to Hungary. For every 20 of these aircraft in the pools 1 will be exported - so long as we keep the pools below 20 for each type no more will be exported. Losses of German recon aircraft have been much higher here than in other games. By converting all other airgroups to Fi156c, FW189A and Ju88D-1 for now we are able to achieve this. (This game was started in v1.10 and so there is no distinction between recon and strategic recon). But all 3 models are still in production and if losses are lower then ultimately the Germans will have to choose to allow at least one type to be exported.

German Transports

The Germans as a team made a deliberate choice to keep as many heavy aircraft in the national reserve during the blizzard as possible to boost vehicle numbers. There where really no emergencies where the transports were needed. These aircraft have been not been used as expected. - and so many were left in the pool. This inevitably meant that the maximum 30 were exported to Rumania and 53 to Hungary. From now forward, there are no more exports of transports so the Germans do not have to manage their pools.


Altogether this turn alone the Germans had to make 22 manual air swaps as a result.

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 1109
RE: Turn 63: The Dawn is Surely Coming - 5/16/2019 5:59:35 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3643
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces



How did they loose 4 bombers from none in that fight?


I suspect a bug ...

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to Telemecus)
Post #: 1110
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