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RE: 8MP T45 - 10/3/2018 2:50:09 PM   
Telemecus


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So ...

we captured a bridgehead in snow - lost it
we captured a bridgehead in mud - lost it

and now when the weather should have made crossing the Don impossible a freak blizzard froze the river again and

we captured a bridgehead in blizzard

Will it be third time lucky? Will we stop losing our bridgeheads? Will the Soviets stop us taking them?




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RE: 8MP T43 - 10/6/2018 9:10:51 AM   
timmyab

 

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Turn 45 Army group North

A blast of cold air from the North freezes the ground and allows X corps to make progress East of lake Ilman threatening to encircle Soviet forces. Unfortunately the cold weather is not forecast to last into next week.





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RE: 8MP T45 - 10/8/2018 4:11:42 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 45 29-April-1942 Air

There is no red air force detected on the map apart from one base of reconnaissance placed in the far north. Unluckily for them on the very last hex just in range of our Heinkels - is nowhere safe?





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RE: 8MP T45 - 10/8/2018 4:18:37 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 45 29-April-1942 Economic

Blizzard means there is only just enough to keep the damage levels on the T-70 factory at Gorky high. So far since v1.11.02 we have had only one turn of it expanding.




The Rumanians though can keep building damage levels in the Caucasus where it is a European weather zone.

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RE: 8MP T45 - 10/8/2018 6:07:07 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 45 Allocations
For information only - team allocations for turn 45.

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RE: 8MP T45 - 10/10/2018 5:10:24 PM   
Telemecus


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Interesting developments from this turn - and will shortly be announced.

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8MP T45-54 The Dream - 10/16/2018 5:50:44 PM   
Telemecus


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Introducing T46-T54 The Dream

In turn 54, in the future of this AAR, many new players joined the Soviet team and asked for the game to be rolled back to a start on T45. So in effect once we put T54 back to bed and went to sleep, we awoke to find that the turns 46 to 54 we had played had in fact been a dream - and we were back on T46 again!

Nevertheless with much of the AAR written up we will be posting what happened in the dream fork of this game. Once that is complete we will be returning to this point in the game for the reloaded game.

Bobby Ewing may have thought he made TV history - but compared to this that was nothing




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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 10/16/2018 5:54:36 PM >

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RE: 8MP T45-54 The Dream - 10/16/2018 7:48:53 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


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A lucid dream.

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RE: 8MP T45-54 The Dream - 10/16/2018 8:30:06 PM   
Zorch

 

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You have entered The Twilight Zone...




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RE: 8MP T45-54 The Dream - 10/16/2018 11:56:22 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

A lucid dream.


I am very sad I will not be facing my nemesis .. you made the game both challenging and enjoyable. It would have been nice to see how it could have turn out .. now to”perfect” turns 46 - 55 again .. I am sure the Soviets will do things differently but so will the Germans and I suspect the Germans will be in a better position.. I hope it goes further this time ..

I long for the game Steph and Steltrck played ..

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8MP T46 - 10/23/2018 7:20:33 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 46 6-May-1942 Centre

In their turn the Soviets only sent out four reconnaissance missions to the centre - and only 1 plane came back from all of them.



This was a sign of their turn to come in centre.

quote:

original:Crackaces
The weather is mud. This halts the German blizzard offense. Now it is time to reorganize for the upcoming clear turns.
The picture shows the pattern from Soviet turn 45.



Where the panzer divisions contribute reserves we get a held, but a subsequent attack pushes the target back. In other attacks. The good news was very few counterattacks. Time advances toward turn 50 and clear weather. Meanwhile, the AGC looks ahead for the jump off points for the Summer '42 offense.


Staff at High Command like to get up close and personal. With rail now repaired right up to the front lines there is no logistical reason not too. Centre now seems the ideal place as not only does it have a densely packed group of units OKH can be near, they are also the most active ones and so most likely to need help with ratings checks. The picture below has a cross marking the spot suggested for OKH HQ this turn.



Generalfeldmarschall Guenter von Kluge at OKH has great ratings but apart from morale they will have a range penalty. But owing to rounding down rules there is no range penalty for ratings checks for units with a full chain of command up to 3 hexes away, only 1 penalty for such units up to 7 hexes away , 2 penalties for 11 hexes away and so on. The picture shows these zones at the start of the turn. Placing OKH at the spot marked will minimise the range penalties for ratings checks from OKH.

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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 10/23/2018 7:28:40 PM >

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RE: 8MP T46 - 10/24/2018 6:47:03 PM   
Crackaces


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This CV factors shown in this game are not alt-CV -- I will refer to this as "regular CV". Alt-CV does not suddenly increase the values of the units but provides more information as to the true combat value of the unit. The Alt-CV provides a much better approximation of the CV ratios before the first shots are fired. You might notice that the ratios go up tremendously with an alt-CV game. Those that really don't think about it might not realize the extreme differences. The initial and final ratios in reality are more true with an Alt-CV game. So in a "regular CV" game a 1:1 initial combat might actually be a 5:1 in reality. Depending on situations the opposite can be true. The greatest variance in a regular CV game I have found is terrain [I think because the effects of the unknown factors of regular CV are multiplied by terrain] followed by leadership.
What is not accounted for in the hidden variance of a regular CV game is firepower. This is the crux of combat. If 2 forces are within a reasonable CV ratio (reasonable determined by P(x) of a withdrawal or counterattack which terminates things early) one can calculate about how much of the enemy is disrupted by your stuff and how much CV you will have left when the shooting is over ..


So .. one can in a regular CV game have a 1:1 CV ratio start but the attacker is full of nebelwerfer rgt combined with howitzers and flak .. provide a couple of directly attached SU's and the final results might be 2:1 or even 3:1 ..


The 2x3 game has given me an appreciation for just how wacky the "regular CV" are initially. Although alt-cv provides more information -- it is also a closer reality to the truth .. at least at the start of the battle. One problem is if a player has an understanding of how alt-cv works and can estimate real ratios and another player who might be experienced but can't process the same information as well. It produces an uneven matchup.
My analogy would be equities (alt-cv) and bonds. You can look up the price of any stock .. bonds work much differently (well they did) Much like the mortgage bond traders of the 1980's and thrifts in the United States. The Bond traders had much better tools for estimating the value of a bond than the thrifts .. it did not end well in the United States ..my analogy is that somebody gets frustrated and quits the game ..

From my point of view the German team had a much better appreciation of the end CV value after the firepower and smoke cleared. I think EvK is the exception and matched up my forces well. To include assessing my propensity to embed SU's and fill up my HQ's with SU's.

Not understanding this diatribe will lead players to wrong conclusions about this game .. much like a witch hunt .. if you do not understand the phenomena around you .. one is presupposed to fill in the gaps with whatever mythical miasma one can understand.

My conclusion is … alt-cv is better for the game so both sides are assured of the same assessment of value of tactical situations, and two the manual needs to be more explicit how it is about firepower not CV [within a probability density curve] that forces a unit back or held "against incredible odds"


< Message edited by Crackaces -- 10/24/2018 6:49:33 PM >


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RE: 8MP T46 - 10/24/2018 9:21:48 PM   
MarauderPL

 

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The firepower is important to a degree, but what really pushes the CV up or down are passed/failed rolls after the combat phase. Checks are made against leaders morale and inf/mech ratings, and additionally against units morale and experience. These are the main variance generators, fluctuating CV from 1/16 to 16 (not 100% sure on the numbers) times the starting value. I suppose the distribution is normal(ish) but not discrete - it has big cliffs at the multiples of 2.

The combat phase throws away some elements from the initial setup (due to destruction or suppression), but the CV phase does the job.

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RE: 8MP T46 - 10/24/2018 10:20:59 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MarauderPL

The firepower is important to a degree, but what really pushes the CV up or down are passed/failed rolls after the combat phase. Checks are made against leaders morale and inf/mech ratings, and additionally against units morale and experience. These are the main variance generators, fluctuating CV from 1/16 to 16 (not 100% sure on the numbers) times the starting value. I suppose the distribution is normal(ish) but not discrete - it has big cliffs at the multiples of 2.

The combat phase throws away some elements from the initial setup (due to destruction or suppression), but the CV phase does the job.


In order (German slant) -- Stukas, Nebel's (Rgt), 210mm, 105mm Howitzers will turn a battle.
If you are agasint soft squads and no opposing guns (or a lot less) the quad 20mm directly attached can change a battle. I readily exchanged 20mm quad devices for much cav in the German winter offense.

A disrupted sqaud or device counts zero toward the CV.

Except for optimzing leaders I admit I have not considered the post battle leadership checks in calculating final CV. I will have to try and understand this more. I have spent a great deal of time at the highest message level and taking notes about the ranges, activites, and vulnerablites of sqauds and devices.


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RE: 8MP T46 - 10/25/2018 8:45:23 AM   
MarauderPL

 

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Of course massed artillery (heavy in particular) helps in the fight tremendously - due to a lot of suppressed elements. But it is to be treated as more of a operational weapon - you can focus on a few hexes each turn (on the German side - the Soviets late war get more options with the on-map artillery divisions). In the day-to-day fights the leader/unit rolls are the main variance generator. in the "normal" CV display the leaders are not taken into account at all, the "better" CV accommodates it to a certain degree (you get the approximation of the mean CV), but the variance or standard deviation of the distribution is not shown anywhere.

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RE: 8MP T46 - 10/25/2018 2:17:20 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MarauderPL

Of course massed artillery (heavy in particular) helps in the fight tremendously - due to a lot of suppressed elements. But it is to be treated as more of a operational weapon - you can focus on a few hexes each turn (on the German side - the Soviets late war get more options with the on-map artillery divisions). In the day-to-day fights the leader/unit rolls are the main variance generator. in the "normal" CV display the leaders are not taken into account at all, the "better" CV accommodates it to a certain degree (you get the approximation of the mean CV), but the variance or standard deviation of the distribution is not shown anywhere.


I saw the "of course" and I was thinking "that's a bit abrupt" .. but you got me thinking. I have all but 40 or so turns of WITE under my belt -- most of this team game. My assigned duties have been to take the best units and SU's and accomplish key missions. I think I have become a specialist at this … that is how I found out how effective quad 20's are against horses :) what I interpret is that there are a whole bunch of needed attacks and defenses that focus on various factors such as leadership die rolls. Again, I have hedged this so far with an abundance of well placed and well mixed SU's.

I might contend your thoughts on heavy artillery as a broad stroke might not be entirely correct. Given my limited experince with high message levels (100 or so battles) There is a science to matching the right SU for the right job. For example, MG bn match up quite well agasint Soviet infantry not backed by armor or big guns. MG bn's match up great vs Soviet anti tank .. 105mm Howtizers match up great as long as not too many Soviet 122 or 150'ish guns are around in clear terrain. Those 105's have a pretty good rate of fire. Then there is terrain . the blast effect is attrited by terrain so there I bring in 210's .. low rate of fire but each shot effective
etc etc etc..


Ok I will think some more about probability distributions given all the known die rolls you can see with hitting the supply button and EvK's excellent works

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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/9/2018 11:51:39 AM   
Telemecus


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Turn 46 6-May-1942 South

Mud still - but clear forecast for next turn. So time for just a bit more reorganisation. A motor brigade and a cavalry division are sent to Crimea - hopefully their extra movement points could mean they are more likely to reserve activate from two hexes away to take Sevastopol. 6th army is being shifted from Voronezh to the rail line heading to Stalingrad. The Hungarians are starting to arrive at army strength on the front lines. And our opponents take a very keen interest on the 1st Panzer Group.




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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/9/2018 2:12:25 PM   
Zorch

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Turn 46 6-May-1942 South

The Hungarians are starting to arrive at army strength on the front lines.


Did they bring Hungarian goulash with them?

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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/9/2018 6:25:11 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 46 6-May-1942 Air



Not having learnt the lesson from last turn the recon in the North remains on a base just on the last hex of range of our Heinkels. So we smack them twice again until it reports only one recon plane from their two airgroups is left flying



Meanwhile in the south it looks like they are getting another recon airgroup ready for a hit and run raid. This is the only place on the map where we can find any Soviet fighters - and recon finds they are not flying. Unfortunately the airbase is just outside of our Heinkel range. So it seems that now is a good time to call back out of winter reserve our Polish made extra long range Rumanian bomber air groups.



Of note is the large number of Soviet recon losses this turn - multiples of their weekly production. Also noteworthy is to see the number of recon and level bombers being lost this turn even when there is no opposing air force. A fairly steady stream of level bombers and recon are lost every turn, this is simply the cost of the strategic bombing and in the ground war of doing business. But in these categories we can afford these losses?

< Message edited by Telemecus -- 11/9/2018 6:26:13 PM >

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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/9/2018 9:14:44 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 46 6-May-1942 Economic

The picture of bombing the North in our air posting also shows the 1942 strategic bombing campaign, facing no Soviet fighter opposition, expanding. With the T-70 factory at Gorky comfortably in the 40s for damage we start to bomb the T60 factory as well. Heavy industry at Rybinsk and Dzerzhinsk(e) is at or close to 50%. Our bombing of the vehicle factories at Murom and Yaroslavl has brought their damage up to the 20s. And out incipient manpower bombing is growing.



Meanwhile in the Caucasus all our short range Rumanian level bombers and tac bombers continue more slowly to raise the damage levels at Novorossiysk.

Curiously we notice the Soviet team evacuated their industry from Grozny to the Urals last turn.

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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/9/2018 9:15:21 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 46 Allocations
For information only - team allocations for turn 46.

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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/11/2018 12:18:45 PM   
timmyab

 

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Turn 47 Army group North

The first clear weather turn of the year. AGN continues its offensive aimed at clearing the enemy from their positions West of the Valdai. Only two mech divisions (10th pz and 60th mot) remain with AGN so a decisive breakthrough is not possible, but the Soviet position SE of Ilmen now looks precarious.
16th army starts to exert pressure to the South of Vishny. This city and the Msta river running North of it are long term objectives for AGN.






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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/11/2018 3:06:33 PM   
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TURN 47
I have discussed before the definition of the word "gambit" Often the word is misused in terms of an overall strategy or a series of moves like a chess opening. However, gambit is defined as "a device, action, or opening remark, typically one entailing a degree of risk, that is calculated to gain an advantage." The center commander decides to risk panzers with the thought of trapping the annoying Soviet cavalry corps.
The gambit balanced the risk of mud and a very difficult situation with panzer divisions isolated and no means to rescue with a possibility of getting a positional advantage on the Soviets. The plan is to drive deep into the Soviet lines and surround a stack of guards. The thought is that the Soviets will rescue the units while leaving units vulnerable for re-isolation by panzer divisions held in reserve. The other part of this plan is that the Soviets need to be enticed to pivot their more powerful armor and cavalry corps toward the south. There is open terrain at the source of the Voronezh that if threatened with panzer divisions would require a strong Soviet commitment.

One thing to look at in the below picture .. the Soviet defense becomes softer the deeper the penetration. There is no digging once I get into the 5th line ..





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< Message edited by Crackaces -- 11/11/2018 3:11:49 PM >


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RE: 8MP T46 - 11/11/2018 3:10:10 PM   
Crackaces


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The Soviet's reaction below:




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Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward. - Kurt Vonnegut

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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/12/2018 6:03:53 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 47 13-May-1942 South

For most of the southern front it is still mud, although some action near Voronezh and ....




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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/12/2018 6:05:30 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 47 13-May-1942 Crimea

After turns preparing we finally have the clear weather turn we have been waiting for.




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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/12/2018 6:07:12 PM   
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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/12/2018 6:10:39 PM   
Telemecus


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Turn 47 13-May-1942 Air

During the Soviet phase of particular note are two very large interdictions on the same hex for 6th and 7th guards cavalry corps. These disrupted about 7,500 of our opponents men. But the interdiction on a rail hex behind the front lines indicates some strategic redeployment of their forces.




The Red Air Force is back - and they have a shiny new configuration. This time their airbases with aircraft are grouped into 4 clusters (plus a solitary airbase further to the rear on the Volga). Three clusters have one hex containing airbases with fighters and one with two. But reconnaissance finds they will not intercept more than one hex away from their airbase. We are now playing Wite1.11.03 which has introduced a per airgroup range cap for the first time allowing this to be done. The area this fighter interception covers is shown in the map above with a red hexagon for each hex containing airbases with fighters. This is a very minimal interception cover, but it does cover all other aircraft in these clusters, and also Gorky.

They are outside escort range for our single seat fighters -so for this turn turn it is down to just the bombers. We want to hold down expansion of the Gorky T-70 factory so we need to continue raising the damage levels. So we decided to concentrate all our force there. Our first raid is indeed a bloody affair as we lose 41 bombers while the enemy loses 67 fighters. But by the second raid we lose none while our opponents lose 3 of the 4 interceptors they can scramble. By our third raid this time on the T-70 factory itself there is no interception at all.

Also shown in the map above is the Hungarian spam ground bombing described previously.



Our multi turn tracking of Soviet airbases found 68IAD and 26DBAD seemingly hiding in the Caucasus mountains until turn 44. By last turn we noted 68IAD had moved into Krasnodar while 26DBAD had a fighter and recon group just out of range of our Heinkels east of Grozny. So having called out our longest range Polish bombers from the Rumanian air force at the end of last turn to get them we were eager to see where they had gone. We find that they had flown reconnaissance missions in our area just north west of Rostov and are now in 68IAD on the Volga river.

We can only speculate on what the Soviet turn was. But given the distances travelled with airgroups having flown multiple missions 68IAD must have been moved by rail. It is quite possible it was left loaded on rails the previous turn for this purpose and 256 ORAP was air transferred to 68IAD and flew air missions from it while the airbase was actually packed up for transport on a train! These reconnaissance missions flew without escort but met our interceptors and heavy flak - sometimes with none of the mission returning at all. Afterwards it was railed to its current location on the Volga river. At some point 196IAP was air transferred in to 68IAD too. We noted last turn the airgroup was not flying interceptions. This turn to remove any doubt it has been air transferred to an airbase moved into a swamp. Thus for our Rumanian ultra long distance bomber airgroups easy pickings. Not a good week for 256 ORAP reconnaissance group, or indeed 196IAP fighter group.

For fans of the Kabuki it appears there is a Soviet equivalent which we guess must be the Ballet Russes. Unlike the German Kabuki involving tactical movements, the Ballet Russes is an intricate dance of airgroups and airbases on a continental scale using the railways. But at the end of it no Soviet fighters were prepared to take to the skies to give battle to our bombers. Instead their spring rites were staying firmly on the ground, looking up to the sky, and shaking their fists firmly!



Air losses for the turn



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< Message edited by Telemecus -- 11/13/2018 6:32:12 PM >

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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/12/2018 9:01:20 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


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Maritime nations like Japan or the USA use floating aircraft carriers, but the Soviet Union must be credited with the invention of the airfield on tracks. At the cost at some damaged aircraft and fatigue, Soviet air groups launch surprise attacks and retreat back into the depth of Russia. The wider Soviet rail gauge proves to be an advantage when it comes to provide a stable platform for take off and landing.
The Soviet Union will not surrender the field of creative air war tactics to the Axis side without a fight.



< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 11/12/2018 9:04:54 PM >


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RE: 8MP T47 - 11/13/2018 4:19:15 PM   
Telemecus


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I have to thank M60A3TTS for sending me the picture below. Clearly they and EwaldvonKleist are the "go to" experts for the new "Ballet Russe" air-rail warfare tactics they developed! The feedback they gave me though was that the railing of the airgroups after doing missions from a loaded airbase itself leads to large losses of aircraft. So there is a large penalty from doing this. They found it only useful for aircraft they did not mind losing too much like biplane recon planes and so on.




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