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RE: Japanese A/C R&D

 
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RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 2:38:17 AM   
rustysi


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quote:

The biggest difference is that with realistic on, you have to make sure that you don't let any of your R&D factories switch to production factories unless you want them to do so, because once they've flipped you can't flip them back.


You can on the first day. I've done it as I still can't figure out how to stop it. I think even where I had 'production off' they still flipped. At any rate I didn't have a problem so I didn't look for a solution.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Numdydar)
Post #: 91
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 3:24:17 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Short points before I run out for errands:

a) I don't think most IJ players "will/do" run out of supplies in 1944.
b) There are more examples of games going into 1944 than there are of "most" IJ players not being willing to continue beyond 1943
c) There are probably as many dropped Allied games as there are IJ games.


a) I was mainly talking about HI. Sorry for the confusion.
b) Hard to say how many quit or not. But I've seen any number of threads of AFBs complaining about JFBs quitting in '43 or earlier. There are a number of AARs that have been abandoned as well. So my impression comes from these observations so could well be wrong.

But after experiencing the Allied might up close and personal, I can easily see many JFB's leaving games when that starts happening. Especially when they know it is NOT going to be getting any better for them for the rest of the game.

c) Doubt it. If there are, it is likely due to RL events versus getting beat up by Japan.

Just my thoughts


Well, in that case about HI or supplies... I'd have to disagree and say that HI is not going to be a concern as long as you don't overspend on industry/factory expansion and go nuts with ship acceleration/engine overbuilding. And it's much easier to burn through supplies without realizing it.

(in reply to Numdydar)
Post #: 92
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 5:36:13 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


R&D favors the bold.




Tony Romo?



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Post #: 93
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 8:33:48 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
No one is calling for not using the R&D system. No one is calling for all PDU OFF games. No one is calling for Realistic R&D OFF to be required; in my own game ahistorical R&D is ON and PDU is also ON.

Running models up two years or more early is an abuse of that system.


BIG note to AFB's... Realistic R&D should be ON. If it is off, that doesn't mean I cannot do research. It means I can't freely switch between R&D factories and production factories. It is MORE permissive, not less.



I am aware. I posted what I did to state that my PBEM game with Lokasenna gave him max advantages re aircraft, as well as being Scenario 2. Which is one reason, although not the main one, I am currently at 1.6:1 against in VPs in July 1944. And why I disagree with statements here that allowing ahistoric R&D is a certain route to VPs going out the window.

N.B. I am primarily at 1.6:1 against because Lokasenna is a far better player than I am. But man, have I learned a lot playing him.


I'm honestly not sure realistic R&D on or off makes much difference. It allows you to switch some factories from production to R&D at the start, but having started a second game with the same scenario and setting up my R&D... the number of factories that I would even want to switch is 2 or 3.

The biggest difference is that with realistic on, you have to make sure that you don't let any of your R&D factories switch to production factories unless you want them to do so, because once they've flipped you can't flip them back.


I've never played an actual game with Realistic R & D OFF. So this is more of a question than a discussion point.

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam with no damage. So you could begin adding research points to the Sam long before factories dedicated directly to it would be repaired. (For example I'm in 5/44 and not one of my Sam R & D factories is repaired and producing research points even though they were set up on day 1).

So in fact couldn't you set 30 x 30 factories to research the first available airframe, like the Rufe, and once they're repaired switch them to all other airframes you want?

(Jets in 44 anyone?)



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Post #: 94
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 8:46:50 AM   
Theages

 

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quote:

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam with no damage. So you could begin adding research points to the Sam long before factories dedicated directly to it would be repaired. (For example I'm in 5/44 and not one of my Sam R & D factories is repaired and producing research points even though they were set up on day 1).

So in fact couldn't you set 30 x 30 factories to research the first available airframe, like the Rufe, and once they're repaired switch them to all other airframes you want?

(Jets in 44 anyone?)

Won't work, because factories will be damaged when changed to a model out of the line.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 95
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 9:15:28 AM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I've never played an actual game with Realistic R & D OFF. So this is more of a question than a discussion point.

Realistic R&D OFF only allows you to switch production factories to R&D, nothing else. It does not change the rules governing factory damage/repair

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 96
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 2:07:26 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Theages

quote:

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam with no damage. So you could begin adding research points to the Sam long before factories dedicated directly to it would be repaired. (For example I'm in 5/44 and not one of my Sam R & D factories is repaired and producing research points even though they were set up on day 1).

So in fact couldn't you set 30 x 30 factories to research the first available airframe, like the Rufe, and once they're repaired switch them to all other airframes you want?

(Jets in 44 anyone?)

Won't work, because factories will be damaged when changed to a model out of the line.


Cool. Good to know. This is why I try to post examples. I want to see if I understand how this really works. Obviously not in this case!

I had just read the below from the manual to refresh on it, but it's slightly less clear about exactly what is possible. The "any aircraft type" made me think it's really any aircraft type.

2.4.8 REALISTIC R&D

If the switch is set to the “off” position, no such restrictions apply. This will allow the Japanese player a greater ability to switch production of their factories to any aircraft type, regardless of whether those factories are representing aircraft production or R&D facilities.


_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 97
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 3:04:28 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Theages

quote:

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam with no damage. So you could begin adding research points to the Sam long before factories dedicated directly to it would be repaired. (For example I'm in 5/44 and not one of my Sam R & D factories is repaired and producing research points even though they were set up on day 1).

So in fact couldn't you set 30 x 30 factories to research the first available airframe, like the Rufe, and once they're repaired switch them to all other airframes you want?

(Jets in 44 anyone?)

Won't work, because factories will be damaged when changed to a model out of the line.


Cool. Good to know. This is why I try to post examples. I want to see if I understand how this really works. Obviously not in this case!

I had just read the below from the manual to refresh on it, but it's slightly less clear about exactly what is possible. The "any aircraft type" made me think it's really any aircraft type.

2.4.8 REALISTIC R&D

If the switch is set to the “off” position, no such restrictions apply. This will allow the Japanese player a greater ability to switch production of their factories to any aircraft type, regardless of whether those factories are representing aircraft production or R&D facilities.



I had read this to mean that it was possible to switch a factory to any other kind of factory, instead of only being able to switch an existing Nate factory to another IJAAF fighters, for example.


I've been working hard on the Karyu and Ki-83. I won't be getting them in 1944.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 98
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/18/2016 9:37:52 PM   
rustysi


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quote:

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam


This doesn't work anyway. The Sam doesn't have a research line, its by itself. Therefore no matter what you do you can't advance its research too far. The Rufe may upgrade to the A6M5 (IIRC) once its repaired.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 99
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 5:23:03 PM   
Alpha77

 

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First off, Realistic R&D should be "ON" because "OFF" really gives the IJ too much advantage.

But the discussed feature here, imo not so much... you still need to research (but not build neccessary) most or all interim modells. Otherwise you can NOT switch the factories to produce the next modell in line (I mean the better later one). Those factories will be danmged and need to build up from ZERO again ! Seems some miss this point :) Only would work if you let all the factories from the "better later" modell to production (but then the research factory is GONE forever only in "OFF" it can be switched back, which would be indeed a bit to much of advantage to IJ!)

Also the so called "much better later modells" are not really better (then most Allied planes), at least not in stock. If we use eg. "babes" mod then yes, because some Jack and George are faster there, in stock most Allied planes will be faster even than your super duper A6M8 which isnt super duper if you look closely (eg. even P40K and F6 are better in speed and weapons)

< Message edited by Alpha77 -- 12/19/2016 5:26:45 PM >

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Post #: 100
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 5:42:11 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77
First off, Realistic R&D should be "ON" because "OFF" really gives the IJ too much advantage.
does not matter really
But the discussed feature here, imo not so much... you still need to research (but not build neccessary) most or all interim modells. Otherwise you can NOT switch the factories to produce the next modell in line (I mean the better later one). Those factories will be danmged and need to build up from ZERO again ! Seems some miss this point :)

You seem to be a relative newbie hence should've asked yourself a question - maybe you are missing something instead of those "some". It goes as follows: nobody needs early Tony factories - switch R&D to production when it reaches Ki-100-I. Also, you can persevere with small Tojo-IIa production until Tojo-IIc is ready (in late 42 with some investment) and switch R&D to production while at the same time switch IIa factory off. Yes, dormant factory sitting there waiting for the IIb to come at the usual date to complete the upgrade process. While Tojo-IIc will be kicking ass through the whole 43.
In general, switching from R&D to productions is no big deal as long as you reach the useful airframe. Japan has about 90 R&D factories at start, not a loss at all if they are gradually switched to production. You need them producing frames not research points at some point anyway.



< Message edited by GetAssista -- 12/19/2016 5:43:18 PM >

(in reply to Alpha77)
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RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 5:51:52 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

If you say research 6 x 30 Rufe, which are ready to go in 4/42, aren't you able to switch them immediately to the Sam


This doesn't work anyway. The Sam doesn't have a research line, its by itself. Therefore no matter what you do you can't advance its research too far. The Rufe may upgrade to the A6M5 (IIRC) once its repaired.


I just had a go at it and yes, the Realistic R & D OFF only allows switches from production to research on the same line. I'd never used it, so interpreted the manual incorrectly. Not the first time!

_____________________________


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Post #: 102
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 5:52:40 PM   
Alpha77

 

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@ Get Assista: To give an example I made exactly this mistake "skipping" a modell which you guys talk here is about, right? (or is it not?).

In my case the first 2 Tojo modells. I switched all res.facs to Tojo IIc. BUT... I just realized a week ago I cannot update the Tojo1 prod facs to Tojo IIc without having the interim Tojo Ib (with the 40mm, I do not want this modell cause the guns seem to hit nothing anyway). But I need to research it so I can switch my prod facs to the IIc (4x12,7). Ooops... Now I cannot switch my res facs back to the Ib the facs would start from ZERO.... hope with this example it is more clear ( or language issue? I am not perfect in English)

Or try it yourself, a TojoIIc res fac can not "go back" to TojoIb (40mm). I tried it and it does not work, fac starts from "0"

So I needed to pay all the prod facs upgrades to the IIc (no free switch without 1b) which means spend all the supply and time. Or wait until the 1b arrives historically, which would be the earliest date I could switch my Tojo1 prod facs to the IIc (and yes I agree it is still much earlier than the historical arrival of the Tojo IIc but this is what the R&D modell is for, right?)

And the KI100 example you gave is valid, if one does not want the Ki61, but in stock even Ki100 is not *that* good (slow, mediocre climb)

< Message edited by Alpha77 -- 12/19/2016 6:11:25 PM >

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Post #: 103
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 6:31:59 PM   
Lecivius


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Reading all of this is why I don't lay Japan. Good Gawd, this is complicated!!

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Post #: 104
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 7:28:03 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77
Now I cannot switch my res facs back to the Ib the facs would start from ZERO.... hope with this example it is more clear ( or language issue? I am not perfect in English)

I guess I'll just repeat myself. I have supressed my Alfredesque temptations though
quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
...persevere with small Tojo-IIa production until Tojo-IIc is ready (in late 42 with some investment) and switch R&D to production while at the same time switch IIa factory off. Yes, dormant factory sitting there waiting for the IIb to come at the usual date to complete the upgrade process. While Tojo-IIc will be kicking ass through the whole 43.


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Post #: 105
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 7:49:24 PM   
Alpha77

 

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OK got it, we actually meant the same thing :) Funny... yes, the TojoIIc is pretty good up to mid 43, except in range. Still can be countered in 43 by the Allies if the player is good.

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Post #: 106
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 8:11:24 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alpha77

OK got it, we actually meant the same thing :) Funny... yes, the TojoIIc is pretty good up to mid 43, except in range. Still can be countered in 43 by the Allies if the player is good.


Just get the Tony, it's better or comparable .

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Post #: 107
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/19/2016 10:16:34 PM   
Numdydar

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Short points before I run out for errands:

a) I don't think most IJ players "will/do" run out of supplies in 1944.
b) There are more examples of games going into 1944 than there are of "most" IJ players not being willing to continue beyond 1943
c) There are probably as many dropped Allied games as there are IJ games.


a) I was mainly talking about HI. Sorry for the confusion.
b) Hard to say how many quit or not. But I've seen any number of threads of AFBs complaining about JFBs quitting in '43 or earlier. There are a number of AARs that have been abandoned as well. So my impression comes from these observations so could well be wrong.

But after experiencing the Allied might up close and personal, I can easily see many JFB's leaving games when that starts happening. Especially when they know it is NOT going to be getting any better for them for the rest of the game.

c) Doubt it. If there are, it is likely due to RL events versus getting beat up by Japan.

Just my thoughts


Well, in that case about HI or supplies... I'd have to disagree and say that HI is not going to be a concern as long as you don't overspend on industry/factory expansion and go nuts with ship acceleration/engine overbuilding. And it's much easier to burn through supplies without realizing it.


It's also easy to run out of HI as well if you do not plan on the pilot training HI spend every month. Once your oil imports dry up, HI production drops but you cannot stop the pilot training pipeline. By early '45 I was spending several weeks just recovering from the pilot spend. So it can happen.

I know that some JFBs try and save up a million or more of HI points to use in the late game. But I do not play that way as I think is is not very realistic. But I'm certainly not going to say that they are playing wrong

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Post #: 108
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/20/2016 4:12:06 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nuwmdydar
It's also easy to run out of HI as well if you do not plan on the pilot training HI spend every month. Once your oil imports dry up, HI production drops but you cannot stop the pilot training pipeline. By early '45 I was spending several weeks just recovering from the pilot spend. So it can happen.

You can always draw pilots into reserve and leave school empty at the end of the game. It dos not cost anything. Or train them on map, it is slightly cheaper (supply vs HI)

(in reply to Numdydar)
Post #: 109
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/20/2016 4:46:23 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nuwmdydar
It's also easy to run out of HI as well if you do not plan on the pilot training HI spend every month. Once your oil imports dry up, HI production drops but you cannot stop the pilot training pipeline. By early '45 I was spending several weeks just recovering from the pilot spend. So it can happen.

You can always draw pilots into reserve and leave school empty at the end of the game. It dos not cost anything. Or train them on map, it is slightly cheaper (supply vs HI)



Many people do this. I did it a little early on, but since then I honestly don't find it necessary. I have enough HI right now to make 50,000 planes and still have 30% of my current stockpile leftover (as well as enough ARM/VEH in the pools to go at least a few months if production suddenly shut off). I'm paying about 30-35K/mo in pilot taxes in mid-1944 of Scen 2. So I don't find it necessary to pull them out of the school. I'll leave them in to get the extra experience when I spawn them from the pools.

If I ever want really low-XP pilots, I still have some of those remaining from before. Useful for kamikaze training, but that's about it. Maybe I'll pull some later.

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Post #: 110
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/20/2016 9:45:22 PM   
rustysi


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quote:


Or try it yourself, a TojoIIc res fac can not "go back" to TojoIb (40mm). I tried it and it does not work, fac starts from "0"

So I needed to pay all the prod facs upgrades to the IIc (no free switch without 1b) which means spend all the supply and time. Or wait until the 1b arrives historically, which would be the earliest date I could switch my Tojo1 prod facs to the IIc (and yes I agree it is still much earlier than the historical arrival of the Tojo IIc but this is what the R&D modell is for, right?)


Just to make sure you're clear on what is being discussed:

You're right, going directly from the TojoIIa to the TojoIIc will reduce the R&D factory to '0'. If however you upgrade to the TojoIIb and then go immediately to the TojoIIc your R&D factory will remain at '30'. So you can then skip the TojoIIb and the expense of researching it. Expense that is if you're getting the engine bonus, otherwise it is 'free' to just research. This will give you the TojoIIc much more quickly, especially when added to the engine bonus. The gist of the discussion here is should you.

If you already realized this, just ignore.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 111
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/21/2016 12:35:12 AM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar
I know that some JFBs try and save up a million or more of HI points to use in the late game.

Mmmm, actually my goal is +4m by 6/44.



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Pax

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Post #: 112
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/30/2016 11:18:39 AM   
Alpha77

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Just to make sure you're clear on what is being discussed:

You're right, going directly from the TojoIIa to the TojoIIc will reduce the R&D factory to '0'. If however you upgrade to the TojoIIb and then go immediately to the TojoIIc your R&D factory will remain at '30'. So you can then skip the TojoIIb and the expense of researching it. Expense that is if you're getting the engine bonus, otherwise it is 'free' to just research. This will give you the TojoIIc much more quickly, especially when added to the engine bonus. The gist of the discussion here is should you.

If you already realized this, just ignore.


Seems something still unclear (perhaps cause I am a noob or you worded something not correct), to clarify:

"upgrade to the TojoIIb and then go immediately to the TojoIIc your R&D factory will remain at '30'"

This is clear

but this:


"So you can then skip the TojoIIb and the expense of researching it"

..is not... you need to either research the IIb or wait until it comes per historical date (otherwise you can not upgrade your facs "for free" to the IIc... Did you mean "the expense of PRODUCING it"? - you need to research it still if you want to upgrade to IIc (I am talking of switching your PRODUCTION facs to IIc if no IIb you CAN NOT upgrade the prod facs to the IIc). You can ofc switch a RES FAC from the Ia (as soon repaired) toIIb then directly to IIc but NOT prod facs...!

@ LOKA: You are playing a mod ? You seem to see the Ki100 as a very good plane. However in stock it is not that good...

< Message edited by Alpha77 -- 12/30/2016 11:37:08 AM >

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Post #: 113
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/30/2016 2:19:04 PM   
Pentakomo

 

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Sorry, anyone know tool for calculate estimate date for researching japanese plane based on number of factories, current date and date of release?

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RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/31/2016 2:34:01 AM   
DanSez


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IIRC Chickenboy created a tool but it is hard to find.

You can home brew up an excel spreadsheet to help with this.
Here are some useful numbers.

Each month of R&D advance = 100 points.
Therefoe, a year of R&D = 1200 points.
Conversely, if you do nothing, you gain 3.2877 points (meaning a day has passed 1200 / 365).

So with that, lets say you are researching a plane line. It is 15th May, 1942 and the plane just advanced to 1 June 1943. 1200 + (15 * 3.2877) = 1249.3155 points before production starts.
You have 5 fully repaired 30x R&D factories. You are getting some engine bonus but it is erratic (welcome to the Random game engine).

When will it go online?

You take 1249.3155 and divide it by your overall production number (number of factories + average engine bonus + Daily Gain of 3.2877). Tracker can help you average the number of points produced by the factories and the engine bonus). Let's say you get 2.5 points of bonus per day.

1249.3155 / (5 + 2.5 + 3.2877) = 115.8 or rather 116 days as it always rounds up (even a .1 ---> goes to the next day)
116 days from May 15, 1942 will put you at Sept 8, 1942.

...roughly...
as engine bonus can flux due to other production decisions you might make between now and end date.

Hope that helps.

<<added>>
if your factories are not 30x, then the Random factor comes further into play as you will not be getting 1 point per day making long term projections difficult.




< Message edited by DanSez -- 12/31/2016 2:36:58 AM >

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Post #: 115
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/31/2016 3:52:33 AM   
InfiniteMonkey

 

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I have one that I made for my own I use. I have attached a screenshot since I cannot upload the excel file as an attachment. Feel free to PM me if you think it will be useful and I will send you a copy.

In the top section, you can plug in the numbers for

1) Max Arrival Date (original available date for your base research model)
2) Last Model Arrival Date (If you are skipping to another model, you put it's arrival date here)
3) Number of research factories you will use (assumes 30 size each)
4) The Engine Bonus. I use 1 or 2, but if you expect to get 500 engines for the engine bonus starting in the middle of research, you might use a different factor (say 1.33).
5) Adjusted Arrival Date is the new date you should expect the aircraft.

In the middle sections you can simulate what happens if you research models consecutively. See sections on Ki-43 and N1K air frames.

Caveat: the is using formulas to represent average outcomes from the Random Number Generator. It is for planning purposes, and Your Mileage May Vary (YMMV).

Caveat #2: The more research factories you have, the higher the likelihood you will beat that estimate.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by InfiniteMonkey -- 12/31/2016 3:54:55 AM >

(in reply to Pentakomo)
Post #: 116
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/31/2016 7:32:22 AM   
n01487477


Posts: 4773
Joined: 2/21/2006
Status: offline
If you go to this page Alimentary has a perl script which calculates it pretty accurately
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3022096&mpage=2&key=


#!/bin/perl
#
# Simulate AE research
#
print STDERR "Days until normal airframe availability [1000] ";
( $days = <> ) or die "Error reading airframe delay";
chomp ($days);
if ( $days == 0 ) {
$days = 1000;
};

print STDERR "Factory maximum size [30] ";
( $maxsize = <> ) or die "Error reading factory max size";
chomp ( $maxsize );
if ( $maxsize == 0 ) {
$maxsize = 30;
};

print STDERR "How much already repaired [0] ";
( $cursize = <> ) or die "Error reading current factory size";
chomp ( $cursize );
if ( $cursize == 0 ) {
$cursize = 0;
};

print STDERR "Number of facilities like this one [1] ";
( $facilities = <> ) or die "Error reading number of facilities";
chomp ( $facilities );
if ( $facilities == 0 ) {
$facilities = 1;
};

# The 2d @sizedist array is indexed first by day number and then by size
# $sizedist gives the distribution of factory sizes on the i'th day (0 = start of first day, $days = end of last day )
# $sizedist[i,j] gives the probability that the factory is size j on the i'th day.
#
# Initialize factory size at start of the first day...
for ( $size=0; $size<=$maxsize; $size++ ) {
if ( $size == $cursize ) {
$sizedist[0][$size] = 1;
} else {
$sizedist[0][$size] = 0;
};
};

# Initialize the cumulative research array...
$research[0] = 0;

# Walk distribution forward each day of the period... day 0 is the first day, day $days-1 is the last day.
print STDERR "Number of days = ", $days, "\n";

# Save the originally specified number of days to arrival
$nominal_days = $days;

for ( $day=0; $day<$nominal_days; $day++ ) {
# $p is the probability of a factory size increase on this day
if ( $day >= $days ) {
# We're past modified expected due date. Assume automatic increase by +1 size
$p = 1;
} else {
$p = $maxsize / ( $days - $day );
if ( $p > 1 ) {
$p = 1;
};
};
# generate size distribution for next day;

# Size zero factory that does not grow
$sizedist[$day+1][0] = $sizedist[$day][0] * ( 1-$p );

# Size n factory that either grew from n-1 or didn't grow from n.
for ( $size=1; $size<=$maxsize; $size++ ) {
$sizedist[$day+1][$size] = $sizedist[$day][$size-1] * $p +
$sizedist[$day][$size] * (1-$p);
};

# If the factory was already max size, it can't grow further.
$sizedist[$day+1][$maxsize] = $sizedist[$day+1][$maxsize] + $sizedist[$day][$maxsize] * $p;

# The code gets a little funny here due to an observation by kmitahj
# http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3022096&mpage=2&key=�
#
# If the suite of factories has generated enough research to advance
# availability by one or more months then that means that repairs to
# the not-yet-fully-repaired factories will be accelerated because of
# the updated availability date.
#
# This effect is random and is not modelled exactly. However, by
# adding up the expected value of the research generated by all the
# _other_ factories devoted to this airframe, we get a plausible
# estimate of the modified due date that affects the repair rate of
# _this_ factory.
#
# Note that when modelling a single factory, this tweak will have
# no effect whatsoever.
#
# I'm not going to swear by the correcness of the (n-1)/n factor on
# this correction, but it feels like it should unbias the resulting estimator.
# It's pretty much down in the noise anyway.

# Update cumulative expected value of research to date

# First, figure the number of research points per factory per turn
# complete repairs.
$p = ($maxsize+1)/30;
if ( $p > 1 ) {
$p = 1;
};

$today_research = $p * $sizedist[$day][$maxsize] * $facilities;
$research[$day+1] = $research[$day] + $today_research;
$other_factory_research = $other_factory_research + $today_research * ($facilities-1) / $facilities;

if ( $other_factory_research >= 100 ) {
# Availability date for purposes of factory growth moves up by 30 days
$days = $days - 30;
$other_factory_research = $other_factory_research - 100;
};

};


#Debugging -- print the detailed distribution of factory sizes on a day by day basis
#for ( $day=0; $day<=$nominal_days; $day++ ) {
# print "Size distro for day ", $day, " is:";
# for ( $size=0; $size<=$maxsize; $size++ ) {
# print " ", $sizedist[$day][$size];
# };
# print "\n";
#};

#Probability of full repairs
$days = $nominal_days;
for ( $day=1; $day<=$days; $day++ ) {
# Print at 5 percentage break points, but fudge the 100% level down to the 99% threshold
$percentage = int($sizedist[$day][$maxsize]*100);
if ( $percentage >= 99 ) {
$percentage = 100;
};
$yesterday = int($sizedist[$day-1][$maxsize]*100);
if ( $yesterday >= 99 ) {
$yesterday = 100;
};
if ( int($percentage/5) != int($yesterday/5) ) {
print "Day ", $day, " probability of full repairs = ", $percentage, "%\n";
};
};

#Production-ready table -- !!do not trust this part, not tested!!
$months_advanced = 0;
for ( $day=0; $day<$days; $day++ ) {
if ( $day/30 == int($day/30) && $research[$day] >= 1 ) {
print "Cumulative expected research by month ", int($day/30), " is: ", int($research[$day]*100)/100, "\n";
};
if ( $research[$day] - $months_advanced*100 >= 100 ) {
$days = $days - 30;
print "Expected advance by one month at day number ", $day, "\n";
$months_advanced++;
};
};
print "Expected modified availability at day ", $day, "\n";
print "This represents an acceleration by ", $months_advanced, " months or ", $nominal_days - $day, " days\n";


I used this when I was thinking of including it in Tracker back around 1.9 but Floyd and I decided that it was a little too much info as our mission was to provide information "mostly" available to the average punter. I also have this as a c# console program which I can probably find in one of my 3 ext.HDD if you want it..

< Message edited by n01487477 -- 12/31/2016 9:25:40 AM >


_____________________________


(in reply to InfiniteMonkey)
Post #: 117
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/31/2016 10:17:05 AM   
sanderz

 

Posts: 848
Joined: 1/8/2009
From: Devon, England
Status: offline
please correct me if i have this wrong but as a very rough rule of thumb i have been using the following:

a) a size 30 R&D factory (with none repaired) will be fully repaired approx 2/3rds of the way through to the plane arrival date
b) after this you still have to research the plane so the more "30" factories the better,
c) and assuming an engine bonus then 5 * 30 R&D factories will bring arrival forward by one month every 10 days

is this in the right ballpark?

(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 118
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 12/31/2016 9:26:42 PM   
InfiniteMonkey

 

Posts: 351
Joined: 9/16/2016
Status: offline
Pretty much. The estimate for repair given by Alimentary is actually

1 - 1/e = 63.2%

Since 2/3 = 66.7%, your estimate is more conservative, but still a decent estimate. The spreadsheet I have uses 63% of the interval between Current Date and Max Arrival Date as the Estimated Research Factory Repair Date.

(in reply to sanderz)
Post #: 119
RE: Japanese A/C R&D - 1/3/2017 8:03:48 PM   
Revthought


Posts: 522
Joined: 1/14/2009
From: San Diego (Lives in Indianapolis)
Status: offline
Meh, on the one hand I like the mechanics which allow the Japanese player to maximize their industry, and make the game more enjoyable (to both sides really). On the other hand, as someone who enjoys the game partially because of its simulation aspects, and as someone who has played the Allies almost exclusively, something seems wrong about Japan being able to out produce the "Arsenal of Democracy" in terms of both research and aircraft. This is especially egregious when the Japanese player is continuing to do so well after the point that the European theatre was prioritized.

A few mods have instituted the aircraft purchase system (paying for aircraft with PP points) to try counter this "counter reality."

In any case, if I were making this game again, today, I would build in greater Allied economic control to make the balance of economic power more realistic, while giving players the option of using said feature or not.

< Message edited by Revthought -- 1/3/2017 8:04:55 PM >


_____________________________

Playing at war is a far better vocation than making people fight in them.

(in reply to rustysi)
Post #: 120
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