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Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 6:38:38 PM   
John B.


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Looking for advice on whether or not we should go on.

The basic situation is that I'm the Allies and Scott is the Empire of Japan (this is the Best Two Out of Three thread in the after action reports). It's early July 1944 I've just taken Manila and I hold all of southeast Asia. The Americans are pushing into southern China and the Brits are advancing on Singapore. Scott's merchant fleet is probably only at 30% and he has maybe 60 days or so fuel/oil in the home islands with him basically cute off from DEI.

I"ve lost 1 CV (and no CVLs or CVEs) and 4-5 BBs. Scott has lost about 1/2 of this CVs, CVLS, and CVEs and 2-3 BBs. You can see the plane losses. The American supply Tusnami continues unabated and the Japanese supply situation is not good. I have 400+ P-47s and B-24s in reserve and the other plane stockpiles are also bulging. I have not yet started strat bombing the home islands.

Our agreement is that if I don't auto-victory by the end of August 45 Scott wins. I'm pretty sure I won't get to the 3-1 VPs to auto-victory in 1944. The fundamental question is does Scott have a reasonable basis to go on. Does he have a beacon of hope to reach August 1945? He's an honorable opponent and will keep playing but if it's just more months of getting hit in the face until I inevitably win then it's not really fun for either of us. We've never gotten this far so what do the experience players think?

Scott knows I'm asking and he's welcome to participate in the discussion.




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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 7:47:12 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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I think you play to auto-vic. Yes, he's in rough shape, but so was Japan. The late war introduces new weapons, new bases (for you), new routes. You may get to see the Soviets activate, which is a blast for the Allied player. And the clock is always ticking.

For him, he gets to play while seriously downgrading his naval focus. He has to be uber-efficient in his plane production to guard the HI, and husband every drop of nearby fuel/oil. He has to decide where to stand and where to run. He doesn't have to win. He just has to stop you from doing that.

Is it fun to get smacked every day? Maybe not, but neither is January 1942 for the Allies. You gave him that; he should give you this. He can still win the game. Even if he doesn't there is much to learn as a JFB in doing more with less.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 7:55:53 PM   
witpqs


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+1

It all depends on what manner of games the two of you like to play. There are games on the market that are rife with uneven scenarios and one side is playing to hold whatever it can while getting over run. Some people hate that and must have a game where the opponents are fighting each other and there is lots of back and forth. If you demand that, then the late game maybe is not for you. But if you like working with what you have to make the most stubborn defense you can, then the late game as Japan is like one of those lopsided scenarios.

Obviously "you" is meant in the plural, but at this point it may be your opponent you has to decide if he is up for it.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 11/27/2016 7:56:05 PM >


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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 7:56:36 PM   
Lokasenna


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You'll reach that 2-1 before your ending date. But you should play through to it anyway. You're both going to want to see that victory screen, just because.

But I disagree with the Moose - except for your artificial end date, he can't win the game (the definition of which is that he must prevent you from reaching a 1.7:1 VP ratio anytime between September 1, 1945, and March-something, 1946).

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 7:59:24 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Where are you in Virginia? I'm a Va Bch boy.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 8:00:40 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


But I disagree with the Moose - except for your artificial end date, he can't win the game (the definition of which is that he must prevent you from reaching a 1.7:1 VP ratio anytime between September 1, 1945, and March-something, 1946).


I was assuming the chance the Allies make a horrendous blunder.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 9:58:53 PM   
John B.


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This is all very helpful and thanks for all the insight! There is ALWAYS a chance I make a terrible blunder. :-) I did have to endure January 42 but the Allies always have the mushrooming strength look forward to.

It's up to Scott of course and he's willing to press on and we can always see how well he does to August 45 and then it's my turn to be Japan and he can see if he can do better.

@Bullwinkle. Scott and I are in Richmond. He was over today b/c we're playing GDW's Third World War (and the American airforce is just as annoying in that game).


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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 10:00:29 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


But I disagree with the Moose - except for your artificial end date, he can't win the game (the definition of which is that he must prevent you from reaching a 1.7:1 VP ratio anytime between September 1, 1945, and March-something, 1946).


I was assuming the chance the Allies make a horrendous blunder.


Even then... let's say he manages to lose all of his amphibs or something trying to land on Luzon. Right now he's at 1.63:1 with a +26K margin. Let's say he somehow loses 10K in ships while Japan loses maybe 2K in general attrition on the map and losses from that hypothetical lopsided IJN victory. So then he's at 1.37:1, at 71K to 52K. Manila may be off the table at that point, but he could also simply continue to march through Asia. He already has a base (Lang Son) within extended B-29 range of the western Japanese industry centers. With no amphibs, he could just concentrate everything on a land campaign for Hong Kong. But he wouldn't lose them all...

Just an example.

But from that snapshot and the info given I'd say this reaches 2:1 by March or April 1945 at latest.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/27/2016 10:40:29 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John B.

This is all very helpful and thanks for all the insight! There is ALWAYS a chance I make a terrible blunder. :-) I did have to endure January 42 but the Allies always have the mushrooming strength look forward to.

It's up to Scott of course and he's willing to press on and we can always see how well he does to August 45 and then it's my turn to be Japan and he can see if he can do better.

@Bullwinkle. Scott and I are in Richmond. He was over today b/c we're playing GDW's Third World War (and the American airforce is just as annoying in that game).




Lokasenna is correct that I was perhaps too hopeful of Japan's chances. For me, just playing on new geographies is worth it. I get so tired of the same old same old.

I have a number of old friends in Richmond. It's really changed since I left VA in 1980 (still have family north of you.)

If you need an argument for Scott to continue, just point out that my Hoos got beat by 42 points yesterday, but they didn't retreat to the locker room to start drinking at the end of three. OK, they were drinking on the bench in the fourth quarter, but they finished the game!

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/28/2016 12:19:17 AM   
John B.


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This just in from the Imperial Palace. The attempted coup by the peace party has been crushed and the traitors executed as they begged for their miserable lives just like the men without honor that they were.

Just to be clear, Scott was always willing to go on, I just wanted to see if there was something he could look for or if it made sense.

I really appreciate the analysis from everyone!

@ Bullwinkle. If you're ever around drop me a line and I'll buy you the adult beverage of your choice. Sorry about your hoos but this year my Cubs finally finally finally won the World Series so the ghosts of my ancestors can stop walking the earth and get some peace!

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/28/2016 1:04:23 AM   
panzer cat

 

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I think John was concerned about the emperors morale. Last time I looked out of the window of the Imperial Palace I didn't see any U.S. Marines. Lasting past the historical surrender date has always been my goal.

@Bullwinkle58. Losing to the Hokies is a Hoos tradition

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/28/2016 3:25:47 AM   
bradfordkay

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: panzer cat

I think John was concerned about the emperors morale. Last time I looked out of the window of the Imperial Palace I didn't see any U.S. Marines. Lasting past the historical surrender date has always been my goal.

@Bullwinkle58. Losing to the Hokies is a Hoos tradition


I think that should be the goal of every reasonable Japanese player. I know that I play every wargame hoping to do better than the historical leaders (in my first PBEM Singapore fell on the historical date which bummed me as it meant that I was no better than Percival!).

I grew up in the Richmond environs (first at Cold Harbor then in the city - apparently Tim Kaine now lives on my old street) and got hooked on wargaming in those days. It has stuck with me through my college years in Georgia and now my adulthood on the left coast.

BTW: the 'Hoos haven't always been sucky on the gridiron. I recall that in '79 they came down and embarrassed my Bulldogs on homecoming (the team that won the national title the following year). IIRC, they beat us in the Peach Bowl once as well.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/28/2016 3:57:42 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: panzer cat
@Bullwinkle58. Losing to the Hokies is a Hoos tradition


I prefer their other name: Gobblers.

Why do some college teams have two names (Wahoos/Cavaliers, Hokies/Gobblers, Yellow Jackets/Ramblin' Wreck), and others only one?

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 11/28/2016 4:02:11 AM >


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RE: Is this the End? - 11/28/2016 4:01:32 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

BTW: the 'Hoos haven't always been sucky on the gridiron. I recall that in '79 they came down and embarrassed my Bulldogs on homecoming (the team that won the national title the following year). IIRC, they beat us in the Peach Bowl once as well.


I threw away a couple of boxes of VHS tapes this weekend. One was labeled "1984 Peach Bowl." That might have been it. At the time it was the first bowl game UVA had been in during my association with it, and I was sure there would never be another.

Somewhere in the 1990s, for one week, in one year, UVA was ranked #1 in the nation in college football. I was at the game the next weekend when they lost. The sound of 40,000 checkbooks snapping shut is impressive.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 3:09:52 AM   
panzer cat

 

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The Hoos had bowl teams year after year in the 80's and 90's.

Bradfordkay. T.K. lives on a very nice street.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 3:31:33 AM   
bradfordkay

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

BTW: the 'Hoos haven't always been sucky on the gridiron. I recall that in '79 they came down and embarrassed my Bulldogs on homecoming (the team that won the national title the following year). IIRC, they beat us in the Peach Bowl once as well.


I threw away a couple of boxes of VHS tapes this weekend. One was labeled "1984 Peach Bowl." That might have been it. At the time it was the first bowl game UVA had been in during my association with it, and I was sure there would never be another.

Somewhere in the 1990s, for one week, in one year, UVA was ranked #1 in the nation in college football. I was at the game the next weekend when they lost. The sound of 40,000 checkbooks snapping shut is impressive.



Naww... in 1984 the Dawgs tied Florida State in the Citrus Bowl. We lost to UVA in the Peach Bowl in 1995 (34-27) and the beat them in the Peach Bowl (35-33) in 1998 and in the Oahu Bowl (37-14) in 2000.

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fair winds,
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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 3:38:10 AM   
bradfordkay

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: panzer cat

The Hoos had bowl teams year after year in the 80's and 90's.

Bradfordkay. T.K. lives on a very nice street.



Confederate Avenue is a nice street, but in 1966 my parents purchased a house there for $18,000 - something a USNPS historian and his librarian wife could afford. Our next door neighbor was the Vice Mayor, however... Our friends have always laughed at the fact that dad found the only house available (and affordable) on Confederate Avenue after we had to move out of the Watt House at Cold Harbor.

We lived there for eight years and I blame that time for my terminal sweet tooth. In those days FFV baked the Girl Scout cookies and their bakery was about 12 blocks from our house on Boulevard. When the wind was blowing from that direction it was pure torture to a kid in grade school...

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 11:17:15 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

BTW: the 'Hoos haven't always been sucky on the gridiron. I recall that in '79 they came down and embarrassed my Bulldogs on homecoming (the team that won the national title the following year). IIRC, they beat us in the Peach Bowl once as well.


I threw away a couple of boxes of VHS tapes this weekend. One was labeled "1984 Peach Bowl." That might have been it. At the time it was the first bowl game UVA had been in during my association with it, and I was sure there would never be another.

Somewhere in the 1990s, for one week, in one year, UVA was ranked #1 in the nation in college football. I was at the game the next weekend when they lost. The sound of 40,000 checkbooks snapping shut is impressive.



Naww... in 1984 the Dawgs tied Florida State in the Citrus Bowl. We lost to UVA in the Peach Bowl in 1995 (34-27) and the beat them in the Peach Bowl (35-33) in 1998 and in the Oahu Bowl (37-14) in 2000.


It might have been UVA vs. Purdue in 1984. I could goggle it, but not remembering is better.

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 2:22:07 PM   
Macclan5


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I am no expert in the mechanics of this game (yet) but I am curious as to why to drop the game ?

1) Allied have 16 point strategic losses - Japan has 0 ; further the land forces army losses are about equal in 1944.

What do those 16 strategic points represent ?

Bombing of the home islands through 1944 and early 1945 (especially with Superforts coming) will dramatically reverse that ratio and points allocation - will it not ?

Would not strategic points combined with increasing army losses in China / Philippines enable you to reach your negotiated victory point margin ?

2) Your aircraft pools are deep and you have almost out margin ed him 2:1 on aircraft losses... (22K to 14K) but...

He now has the advantage of consolidating aircraft ~ including hopefully his best units ~ to near base Home Island missions. His operational losses should shrink and further his pilot fatigue should also shrink.

Mean while you have to fly longer range missions to sweep / bomb Japanese bases.

Would not the Japanese player have a slight inherent advantage when defensive lines become shorter and tighter especially as it relates to air missions ?

3) While a victory point margin seems to be the essential agreement here are there not 'other considerations' of the 'inevitability' of victory.

In History after the fall of Luzon the 'peace faction' within Japan gained the Emperors ear to a significant degree never before imagined.

After Iwo Jima and Okinawa at least in secret most historians indicate the Japanese cabinet recognized the writing on the wall. In fact many have argued that the Japanese Cabinet placed a great deal of hope and faith in the Soviet Union intervening in a negotiated peace; that the Soviets would prevent the imposition of 'Unconditional surrender' on Japan. of course the Soviets had played a duplicitous game through out the war with Japan as American lend lease made its way to Siberia; and further the Japanese government was well infiltrated by the remains of the old Comitern.

Do you control Iwo? Okinawa? Do you have plans to do so ? Does China and Manila equate to Iwo and Okinawa ?

Curious about your opinions on the last.

< Message edited by Macclan5 -- 11/29/2016 2:23:30 PM >


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RE: Is this the End? - 11/29/2016 9:57:23 PM   
rustysi


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I'd rather go down in flames kicking and screaming all the way, but that's me.

Hey, they're only pixels.

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It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

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RE: Is this the End? - 11/30/2016 2:22:13 AM   
PaxMondo


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Sorry, but this game is just beginning for the IJ player ... 42/43 is just the preamble, the real game is 44/45. When you choose the IJ, it means getting ready for the 44/45 part of the game .... the good news and why WITPAE is so excellent compared to all other games is that as the IJ you get 2 years of game time to establish your starting point for 44/45. It means every game is different, and every game has the potential for a 'good' outcome ... just not easy at all.

Good luck to both of you and enjoy!!!

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RE: Is this the End? - 12/1/2016 2:25:22 AM   
panzer cat

 

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We have bayonets

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RE: Is this the End? - 12/5/2016 2:00:13 AM   
rustysi


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quote:

the good news and why WITPAE is so excellent compared to all other games is that as the IJ you get 2 years of game time to establish your starting point for 44/45.


What Pax said. Gives me two years to dig in tighter than a tic.

_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

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