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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G

 
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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/23/2016 9:53:36 AM   
Michael T


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Have you ever seen finer specimens?




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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/23/2016 11:26:54 PM   
HITMAN202


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Them ain't no cats or chooks, them are critters, good critters for supper.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/25/2016 3:25:44 AM   
Farfarer61

 

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Well yes, once a year for my annual medical :)

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/25/2016 8:42:50 AM   
sillyflower


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Great pic Michael. Just as well that Col. Sanders doesn't seem to be a forum user.

Reluctantly returning to the game, no turn back yet from Brian (he probably didn't enjoy opening the turn much and he has a lot to do) so I just post the T63 losses screen for now.




His end of turn OOB was down 70K from T62 and the prisoners are busy signing up to join the HIWIs.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 9/25/2016 8:44:33 AM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/25/2016 2:43:03 PM   
chaos45

 

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I think if you can keep up losses as pressure you should have this game....losing all the south plus Moscow and most likely soon to be more cities in the south--I doubt his manpower can recover at this point esp his multiplier only goes down.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 9/27/2016 10:35:18 PM   
sillyflower


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T63





The southern half of S'grad falls to Model who switched corps for the occasion.VP no. 249 The panzers grind forward trapping 6 strong-looking inf XX whilst to the east, III Pz korps interdicts the rail line down to Astrakhan which should cause his lunge south from there to go back where it came from.

To the west, STAVKA launches Wacht am Donets (or whatever that is in russian) with an armoured lunge south.Not quite sure why, as it is not powerful enough to draw any troops away from S'grad, but Brian always tries to do something aggressive. The spearhead is cut off largely thanks to the panzer div that had railed down from the north the previous turn. They are joined by 502nd pz battalion . This will be an excellent test of the new Tiger tank. No chance of the pocket holding but the rest of the corps will be jumping off their trains and getting stuck in next week.



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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 9/27/2016 10:54:54 PM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/1/2016 9:27:47 PM   
sillyflower


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Back from 3 days in London so here's the rest of the turn





Brian't bold thrust from Astrakhan is beaten back by my glorious allies, backed up by 14th PzK which I was gong to send back towards S'grad anyway. Not enough room for them down here now. The cut-off Rumanians have been freed, and Brian will have to content himself with the Italian Celere division (just off the map to the north). Interdicting the rail line near S'grad will put them in a poor supply situation so I suspect they will go back from whence they came.

Meanwhile at Baku I focus on pocketing as many of the defenders between me and Baku, whilst starting to chomp on his isolated units.Much easier to kill them in the open than in Baku itself........

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/1/2016 9:37:41 PM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/1/2016 9:55:00 PM   
sillyflower


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Thoughts on T63

Air losses were 81 to 90. Destroyed units 2 inf xxx, 5 inf xx, 2 cav xx, 1 mtn xx, 2 inf x and 6 regts.

G OOB steady at 3.91M but Soviets shrink to 5.47M and I hope to keep shrinking it in the next few turns.

I need to take Baku ASAP to shift the rest of 1 PzA + at least 1 inf corps north while leaving enough to clear the rest of the Caucasus. Unless Brian surrenders, which doesn't seem likely, this game is not going to end before the winter despite my best efforts to put Brian out of his misery.The only visible units defending Baku are 1 rifle xxx, 2 tank xxx (1 routed ) 1 mtn xx and 1 gd inf xx, but next turn looks like it's going to be just mopping up down here as the fuel situation will be poor. Near S'grad, the 2 inf stacks look very strong and I can't get very far between the Don and the Volga while they are still there. The pocket needs to hold.

The battle of the bulge will hurt him more than me as his losses in men and guns are not coming back for a long time, but I suppose he just can't sit there without trying to get the initiative somewhere. He was unlucky (I prefer the word out-thought) by the panzer div which enabled me to isolate his spearhead and with more arriving this turn.

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/1/2016 10:00:45 PM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/5/2016 9:40:05 AM   
sillyflower


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Brian is still fighting on stubbornly, though taking a week per turn.

T64 Baku area




Mopping up, opening up the MSR and making sure the panzers are fully fuelled for next turn. Railhead just S of Mtown.

Error on map -lower hex defending Baku has a tank xxx, not xx.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/5/2016 9:54:00 AM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/7/2016 8:50:04 AM   
sillyflower


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a bit further north




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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/7/2016 8:57:23 AM   
sillyflower


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more mopping up in S'grad area. 5th gds rifle xxx is trapped against the Don and motorized forces cross the Volga SW of S'grad to start a pincer movement. Further west, the battle of the bulge sees 3 corps and 2 gd inf xx securely pocketed. 1 tank xxx sadly routed out during herding operations, but it only had 800 men left so will not be a nuisance again for a while. Any would-be rescuers will meet the same fate . Balck's XIV Pz korps arrives at the bottom of the map to reinforce the S'grad area, having marched up from the south.

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/7/2016 9:03:15 AM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/9/2016 10:06:28 AM   
sillyflower


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losses





Soviet prisoners volunteer in large enough numbers (8% of them)to replace all German losses and more as not all axis losses are Germans.

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< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/9/2016 10:09:24 AM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/9/2016 10:17:56 AM   
sillyflower


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Thoughts on T64

Air losses 114 to 203. G OOB holding steady at 3.91M. R down to 5.38M and looks as if it will continue to decline.

10/10 to Brian for tenacity, but his bolshevik rabble is too weak to be able to stop the Good Guys. However, victory will not come before the winter.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/9/2016 10:10:29 PM   
Michael T


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I really thought this would be over by now. He really knows how to cling on.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 2:00:46 AM   
chaos45

 

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THe problem Brian is going to have is his OOB is pathetic and his replacements only getting smaller every turn as he keeps losing ground and his replacement rate will decrease again in 1943. This game is over.

Been a trend since all the newer patches if the soviets lose Moscow I'm not sure they can recover at all. When you lose Moscow and Leningrad the manpower losses are a massive hit to Soviet replacements in 41/42.

Its one reason Leningrad is so important to hold and keep in supply as long as possible in 1941...as its something like almost an entire Soviet Rifle division in replacements per week you hold it. So it basically pays for itself in replacements just to hold the place, as long as you dont sacrifice entire armies....plus it holds up tons of Germans from driving on Moscow early

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 2:58:55 AM   
charlie0311

 

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This topic, sov manpower, comes up from time to time. Usually in the above context of the importance of Leningrad and especially Moscow.

May I suggest that interested parties refer to the production screens, scroll down on the left to "manpower" and left click. Ahem, it you do this before t1 you will see total manpower at about 2600. Down and down it goes as cities and towns fall to the Fascist swine. Of this vast production pool Leningrad contributes 40, Moscow is 50.

Now I know that I'm really, really stupid and that in some mysterious way that this 90 points of manpower production is of utmost importance. Maybe the other 2500 or so are so dumb they can't even be called Ivans and have to all be Charlies.

GO BRIAN!!

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 7:23:52 AM   
chaos45

 

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Charlie- immediate Leningrad area is 80 total manpower alone, Moscow area= 90 for its 3 hexes.......so you lose 170 total manpower just for those 2 cities and the surrounding urban/city hexes that make them up. In the long run that is a huge loss of replacements esp when the multiplier is the highest in 1941.

Not to mention once you lose those urban fortresses usually the other side can them push even more ground and thus capture more small towns and midsized manpower locations in the not immediate area thus compounding the loss of 170 manpower for the major city areas even more. So losing these 2 hubs of resistance easily costs the soviets like 10% of their remaining manpower over historical manpower losses in the campaign.

Yes some manpower will re-locate but it stops producing any replacements for many weeks--the critical huge multiplier weeks of 1941 and early 1942. In 1941/1942 against a good german player the Soviet player needs all the replacements they can get and losing 10% more per week will most likely prove crippling.

I tracked Soviet logistics/production fastidiously while I was playing Pelton, by doing so I knew how many men I could afford to sacrifice per week and still stay in the game. This was also key in how I bled him down before my offensives in late 1943, as I bled the Soviet army every week to about what I was replacing, this in turn kept the German army from growing huge. This game is all about numbers really. Its why its vital to pay attention to the logistics phase and what your industry/replacement situation looks like at all times on top of tactics on war map. As your logistics phase/replacement numbers should factor into how your playing your army on the map if you want to win.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 8:50:23 AM   
charlie0311

 

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Ok First things first. Then etc.

1) Game has changed since your Pelton game, and your win by losing strategy no longer works.

for the ect.

2) Yep, total manpower of Lgrad and Moscow area is 170. Nope, that is not 10% of manpower.

3) I have not one but two test games v superior players. As of Jun '42, after losing Lgrad, Moscow, Voronezh, Rostov I have OOB over 8M and excess (barely) in manpower pool. Approx toe of average on map unit is about 85+%. My OOB goes up every week,and, there has been not one week where I have zeroed out on manpower, a few times I even tried to zero out by juicing up the refits, always in the black. I like to be careful with my truck pool so I won't max the refit every turn, probably ever.

My point with this is to prospective sov players, don't despair and quit if you lose all this stuff, you have enough.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 9:55:40 AM   
sillyflower


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One factor that people tend to forget about soviet manpower losses is that a lot of it evacuates. Chaos refers to it but I don't agree that the temporary production loss is as painful as that caused by factory evac. Brian has the turn so I can't check, but by a few turns ago I think I had only captured 1400 manpower centres.

@ Charlie - the T1 Russian manpower figure of 2,600 is not the right number for some reason. It increases a lot. I ran some GCs without moving any units to see what happened with random weather - an issue now rectified. By T8 Russians have 3,889 manpower centres. Brian has therefore 'only' lost only 35% of his manpower at most. For some reason, at the start of GC42 there are only 3,787 Russian m/power centres: of which 1124 are in German hands. I'm therefore ahead by only 300 centres - less given that G had captured more by mid September.

Brian also lost 85 arms and 40 HI, with 9 more of each in Baku - presumably he forgot to rail it out of the caucasus before I cut the rail. I don't know whether it's industry or manpower that is his bottleneck. If he hasn't said, it would be interesting if someone could ask him.

I think that the biggest difference has been B getting free unit replacements.This has enabled him to throw many away (19 tank xxx destroyed by end T66) trying to discombobulate my supplies; sometimes successfully, sometimes not. Without the freebies, he would either not have any tank or inf xxx, or be unable to hold the line anywhere as he would be 150+ or so units short.

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/10/2016 10:19:09 AM >


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 11:00:40 AM   
charlie0311

 

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@SF, Most of the following is in the "for what it's worth" dept. Starting manpower is 39xx something, just checked. I had 2300 around t50 and extrapolated forward to come up with the 2600, way way off. I guess the total manpower is affected by some multiplier but the production number for the manpower centers is constant.

Looks to me like Brian is fighting with an unsupplied and unarmed army of resurrected zombies. For all I know, not very much really, he may be able to hold you off all the way (t 200+ something) if you guys are doing bitter end. Ummh, when you play a game in permanent beta strange things happen. Limiting the number of zombies per turn, esp no free xxx units might do it, but such things are above my pay grade.

BTW both my test games ended when my opponents quickly crushed my feeble attempts at dealing with the Pz ball. We were going "all out" axis, clear weather, everything. I had pretty much fun for a few months.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 3:28:45 PM   
chaos45

 

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As small as Brians army is his Heavy industry losses arent mattering. I math hammered Heavy industry and you have to lose alot for it to matter even mantaining an 8M+ man Soviet army. So with only 5M men his heavy industry should be easily supplying his needs.

Armaments might be a small bottleneck, but I bet his true bottleneck right now is manpower. As I took fewer losses vs Pelton and manpower was the huge issue for my Soviet force up until around mid 1943. Its one reason I argued against the lower german and higher soviet losses back before all these patches- As the Soviets already dont replace historical and barely replace enough to stay relevant against Good german play in 1941/1942. Yes bad German play = quicker Soviet victories I agree, but even then Auto German morale levels will keep the game going a long time unless the German player messes up their defense badly.

As to patch changes, I agree many things have changed but alot havent changed at all---production for the soviets hasnt been changed at all--also the win by losing strategy, some people are clueless is all I can say. Once the Soviets get enough numerical superiority you can take losses of 10:1 in some battles per week and still be fine. The key is dont be stupid about it. Your objective isnt to lose 10:1, so you find battles that will be close but you will prolly lose and throw the dice--if you have air support and alot of artillery SU you can often still kill alot of Germans even with all the new changes this shouldnt havent changed as its the combat routines which werent adjusted much at all.....aside from the Germans getting some freebie combat results now, which IMO is a large part of the Germans doing so much better now in the early game when veteran players are playing them.

Again Charlie its all about numbers--I think the under the hood changes Morvael did has made the long game numbers more in favor of the axis now is the problem. The slight tweaks he did to lower Germans losses, means alot fewer german losses over a very long game now and that adds up to much stronger German army for alot longer than it should be. An even before he put these patches in the Germans were already very strong in 41/42 as is to the point of the Soviets barely being able to put up a fight.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 5:36:23 PM   
charlie0311

 

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Didn't take you very long to to resort to the stupid and clueless talk now did it?

His winning by losing tactic, was he made lots and lots of failed (losing) attacks, the combat losses hurt the Germans enough and couldn't be made good (Pelton even disbanded the LW for troops). Natch he had a manpower "shortage" after proceeding with such a strategy. The combat losses are much less now, there was also some bug that was causing the German OOB to crash around '43, Pelton complained for years.

Morveal is doing a great job.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 9:32:26 PM   
chaos45

 

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Ahh Charlie----you need to re-read the like year of posts...anyway the bug affected both sides not just Germans so it wasnt as one sided as Pelton claimed as always Pelton only cries loudly when it affects Germans.

What cost Pelton the game wasnt a bug or my attritional attacks- what cost Pelton the game was he didnt count on me turning the panzerball back on him and wiping an entire army of his off the board every 3 turns via encirclements.

Also I stand by my current evaluations of the State of the Game which is German losses are now to low and causing the German winning Snowball effect to stay in play longer than it should.


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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 9:37:36 PM   
sillyflower


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Charlie - with respect your 1st sentence above was somewhat unnecessary. No negative personal comments were made by Chaos and I took his comments merely to say that some people including you don't seem to understand how to use the strategy he suggests. Whether he is right about the long game remains to be seen. G player has been helped but so has R with freebie returns but IMHO G was collapsing too quickly in mid/late game. I don't think the evidence is there yet to say whether or not the balance is now as good as it can be or not.

BTW we are playing alt VC not bitter end - see several recent posts about what I have to do to win. If I fail or if it takes me 200 turns, you can justifiably call me clueless and stupid - but in an email to avoid breaking forum rules.

Let's all be nice

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 9:52:50 PM   
charlie0311

 

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Th is going a big fat nowhere, and it has nowhere to go I suppose.

@SF, Chaos brought the terms clueless and stupid into the chat. I pointed that out. Now I am making personal attacks, NO.

@C, How do you know the "swapping" bug affected both sides?

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/10/2016 10:52:27 PM   
Michael T


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Next patch will muddy the water again as the German loss rate is going up I believe.



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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/11/2016 8:50:23 AM   
sillyflower


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It needs to. My losses in this game seem very low and attrition hardly exists for the armour as can be seen from various loss screens.After a continuous offensive since Feb, the Wehrmacht has just got stronger.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/11/2016 1:37:21 PM   
Michael T


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I pushed for it as I firmly agree with you.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/12/2016 11:17:36 AM   
sillyflower


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T65

As The Boss (Bruce Springsteen to the uninitiated) should have sung (if I'm allowed a gentle criticism of him without breaking the 'no religion'rule)

'I'm just advancing in the dark'

but I'm meeting his challenge of 'Bring on your wrecking ball and let's see what you've got'





Taking what I can get as I advance both sides of the Don and, to a lesser extent, the Volga. Stalingrad will not last long! I will need to take it because it is the hub for all the local rail lines and my 2 rail heads are only 2 turns away from it; and it's another 3VPs of course.

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RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G - 10/14/2016 9:51:35 AM   
sillyflower


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Battle of the bulge




Last turn's pocket at Voroshilovograd held and is now eliminated. For some reason, Brian decides to throw more troops in to the west, resulting in secure pockets of 3 more xxx, and a 4th is isolated but can out: just.

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