How many copies of this does he have to sell at 70 bucks a pop to be a commercial success? I think of the hexes and counters wargame hobby as being a niche thing anyway, whether on computers or cardboard. I play a lot of Advanced Squad Leader, and I see a selection of the same ~200 guys at every event, online tournament, etc. I think that MMP (ASL's publisher) produces a new title if they have something like 500 pre-orders. I couldn't imagine a monster game based on the WitE/WitW engine covering all of Europe 1939-1945 wouldn't sell 500 copies.
You may underestimate the cost of developping of software.
Whatever to give you an order of magnitude, SteamSpy estimate that War in the East have between 6000 to 10000 owners. (There may be owners who never registered on steam that have to be added).
I do not know if it is considered as a success or not.
Decisive campaign barbarossa is estimated as a commercial failure (according to the dev in its blog), still steamspy estimate that there is between 3000 and 5000 owners.
This looks big, but in software games it is very small numbers.
To compare, dominion 4, a hardcore fantasy 4X (really hardcore, terrible UI, tons of options, very complicated, tons of micromanagement) that can compare in complexity (and interest) with wargames have according to steamspy between 60000 to 80000 owners.
Heart of iron IV have 800K.
< Message edited by Stelteck -- 10/18/2017 9:47:49 PM >