The wall starts at Lisbon

[CanInf]

Having taken the med and Gibraltar, I am now looking at the least expensive way to delay the western allies from landing in western Europe. Looking at the map, I see Lisbon as a possible lynchpin of an aerial defence lasting through 42 and some of 43. This should let me use the army elsewhere.

I can base enough 4+ range fighters in and around Lisbon to prevent intervention in the Bay of Biscay and off of Gibraltar. It would mean that once the Western allies commit to a sea zone north or south of Lisbon, I fly in to the zone using an air impulse. The plan requires prioritizing fighters for both Italy and Germany, while using troops to defend stuff bordering the North Sea (which is easier since reinforcements will arrive close it the front).

thoughts...

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

You often can't afford to let them sail out in one impulse and wait for the next to counterattack, you often need your planes in the sea zone first.

Through the use of a combined, a supercombined with O-Chit, or the simple expedient of having one of the Western Allies take a naval, ship out the troops of another who is taking a land, they can accomplish the invasion in a single impulse. And once they're ashore, planes alone aren't going to cut it.

[CanInf]

hmmm, then that poses a problem. You need to concentrate the axis planes where the allies go. Splitting the force means you will not win. The allies will just go where axis are weakest. This may not work.

[Jagdtiger14]

I would not let go of the idea completely. While WEdge is correct, and you do need ground forces protecting ports, etc...a lot of them can be weak ground units...air with ground support factors can augment them if not yet committed (and I would not commit everything at once...have reserves since invasions could go through two different sea zones).

Lisbon is an extremely important port...it will help your fight in keeping Gibraltar and the Med your lake. Its a great naval base. You might be able to force the US to commit more naval assets to the European theatre, giving some relief to the Japs. Perhaps the Japs might focus their offensives into the Indian Ocean and eventually some of their naval assets might make their way into Europe (I've seen this happen at some WiFcons).

Frequently (its become automatic in the face to face games I'm a part of) the CW DOW's Portugal (mid-1940) to use it as an air base in its defense of Gibraltar. Its a critical position for both sides.

In a strategic sense try to do things that increase the number of Axis units available to you...like aligning Yugo rather than invading them.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

DoW of Portugal in mid 40s? When you're trying to save France? Crazy talk!

DoW Portugal on the very first turn! This is important!

[Jagdtiger14]

Wedge...not sure if you are being sarcastic or not. There is no reason to DOW Portugal in 1939...plus the '39 US entry chits are prohibitive. Mid-40 (when France looks doomed at any moment...ie, France begins to send its BP production to CW) is about the time to DOW Portugal.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

I was being semi-sarcastic. I think it's better to attack on the first turn as opposed to waiting, but I don't mean to imply it's a wrong call to attack later.

I do usually DoW on the first turn myself. Sure, the entry is rougher then, but you have fewer things you need to be doing, especially with land units in S/O 39 as opposed to say, J/A 40; when I'm usually bracing for Sealion and trying to fight in North Africa and trying to pick up Vichy's colonies and possibly reeling from the destruction of the BEF and getting ready to intervene in Spain/Greece should either become necessary.

A first turn attack, while having slightly rougher USE (and you only have a 50-50 shot of a chit loss anyway) gives you an easy to ship resource earlier, it gives you access to the Azores and the ability to base a plane there before France falls and the convoy situation gets really ugly, and it makes it easier to float planes down into the Med; where again it's going to be hard to take to the offensive after France falls.



I'm a firm believer that on the first 1-3 turns, the CW should be aggressive somewhere. Maybe Portugal isn't your thing, but it's the one I go after, and I do think the first turn's the time to do it.




Edit: As an aside, entry stuff.

Average chit value in 1939 is 2.3 repeating. When you add in the 1940 chits, it falls to about 1.9, for a roughly .4 difference in chit value. Plus or minus .2 USE (considering you only have a 50 50 shot of affecting entry at all)isn't that big of a deal. Honestly, the bigger USE impact is whatever options you might have played in between the start of the game and the fall of France.

[Jagdtiger14]

Wedge: I think your early DOW of Portugal has a lot of credibility. I'll have to try this in my next game as CW...I'm sure I'll hear the US player screaming at me;-)

[brian brian]

I don't think MWiF has the current Portuguese force pool as in the paper game. ADG moved up the availability date of their INF and/or added a GARR unit also I think, to discourage the too easy CW division invasion/conquer. That was probably simpler than amending the political rules.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Wedge: I think your early DOW of Portugal has a lot of credibility. I'll have to try this in my next game as CW...I'm sure I'll hear the US player screaming at me;-)

The problem with this immediate DOW on Portugal is that it conflicts with the Russian desire to occupy eastern Poland and claim Bessarabia. With average US entry rolls, if the Germans deny the claim, there is minus one chit left in the Ge/It US entry pool. Oops. Only DOW Portugal if the Russians aren't going to claim Besserabia, or the Germans have already allowed the claim. And if you wait, you are three impulses into S/O 39, which might be a little late.

(3 chits in Ge/It pool, +1 chit for Ge DOW on Poland, -1 chit for Allied DOW on Ge, -1 chit for eastern Poland, -2 chits for Besserabia leave zero, which does not leave room for a chit for Portugal.)

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

Except that there is only a -2 for Bessarabia if the Germans have Romania go to war over it. Unless there's fewer than 2 chits, I've never met a German player willing to risk losing the Ploesti oil that early in the game, so then the 2 chits stay. Then you DoW with the Brits, still having 2 chits.


Also, it's pretty common for Italy to enter the war against someone the first chance they get, which usually gives the Allies another chit, and attacks on Denmark and/or the Netherlands are also fairly common. Only .3 to each, but a pretty decent chance that you might get another chit in there.

[Centuur]

I don't like this gambit this early in the game. You need at least to wait until the USSR has claimed Bessarabia and Eastern Poland. It's important for the USSR to do both as early as possible in the game, since they need to relocate their European army to the Finnish border. That takes an awful lot of time if they stay inactive...

Also, with the GAR defending Lisbon it isn't a walk over anymore. Sure, it's a weak unit, but it still is going to take a couple of land units to take Lisbon. And land units is something which the CW is short on in S/O 1939. The CW needs to take the hex and therefore has to avoid the dreaded 14 result...

What if Germany decides to attack the Netherlands with your units in Portugal? That means no Rotterdam gambit. Or what if Germany decides to kill Belgium (using the tactic which is in the Annual) while the CW has it's units on TRS in the Bay of Biscay? Not very good either...

What is Italy going to do with the CW having three or four land units attacking Lisbon in S/O 1939? Those units needs to come from somewhere?

[Orm]

Here is a picture of the Portuguese Force Pool in '39.

[Orm]

And a picture of their Force Pool additions.

[Jagdtiger14]

If I'm not mistaken, I think the MIL comes in on the spiral for the following turn. So you really have to deal with the 3-1 GAR. What can the CW bring against it at the first opportunity? Assuming full SB from SCS and ground support from CV's.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

At first opportunity, you're probably looking at a task force of something like a mot, a Terr, and your infdiv, which is going to mass about 10 or so land factors. Add in another 10 for shore bombardment, and you're already looking at a 6:1 attack.

Most of your early war CVP don't have any tactical factors. However, the Brits start with 5 LND 3, and you're almost guaranteed to draw a Blenheim, which can re-base over to Portugal with a single move: that adds 2-3 if you can spare the guy, which will probably be enough to push you up and odds column.

[brian brian]

A lot of moving parts to the idea though. Without an HQ, you would have to land the infantry division in the minor port and then march the corps to Lisbon, through one mountain hex (time; and recall that the CW almost always needs one Naval impulse per turn). Or use an HQ and start out closer, but no port-to-port TRS move (time). A good defender could advance the GARR out of Lisbon, giving up a -1 on the 2d10 (handing 1/2 odds column to the attacker) for a chance that the attackers are dis-organized and then can't march into Lisbon before the turn ends (time); the alignment of the shoreline of Portugal plays into the defender's hands. In 1939, the MIL would appear at reinforcement. In 1940, it would be the MIL plus the INF. The Germans could try a fairly risky Heavy Cruiser + Infantry division reinforcement attempt, or something similar if Italy Is at war with France only (not my style, but it happens in some games).

The CW can definitely do this, but it ties up assets. The quantity of them depends on your appetite for risk.

I think another Axis remedy is to align Portugal to Japan, giving the IJN some interesting bases worldwide; the Portuguese DD counter then becomes a commerce raider off the NEI oil ports. And then the CW needs to be prepared with troops in western Europe and South Africa, and convoy escorts all over the place. I still think it is ridiculous that the Goa hex is not a major port on the MWiF map, which could slightly further dissuade (though Japan has little hope of invading India on the new big map) this fairly un-historical Allied strategy, which would have likely brought Spain onto the Axis side right quick.

As the Allies, I would rather just simply put up a stout defense of Algeria (no evacuation of the at-start French INF and then CW reinforcements) and then Morocco, including a quick DOW of Vichy Morocco if needed. The 1939 USE chits can be very good, is another concern.