VL is more important then Kiev is.
VL is close to the german supply lines, and, with the baltic rail repair rules, threat more Leningrad and Moskov, then Kiev threat D-town, and Kharkov.
Crossing the Dnyepr arounk Kiev is not a real threat, because the german is far from his logistical lines, and from important industrial centers.
In sappers side, the soviets must fall back from the center region, because if the german troops will slowly encircle the huge area, the soviets can't evacute those troops.
with +1, the soviet must concentrate his forces close together, in a stablie front lines, and defend key locations, like Moscow, and southern area.
I would agree in general with this, but not on Turn 2. Normally GHC breaks PSKOV line on Turn 2, this really isn't much different than that (it is, but not SO much). GHC never breaks the Dnepr in the south on Turn 2. In my experience, SHC voluntarily gives up Kiev around Turn 4-6 when GHC breaks the Dnepr further southeast. So way ahead of schedule in the south and if this was my game I would be more concerned about that right now. Even with very low movement, the Panzers will continue to flip hexes allowing the infantry to press east every turn. I guess we'll see how the next few turns play out, maybe I'm wrong and you're right...
ly GHC breaks PSKOV line on Turn 2, this really isn't much different than that (it is, but not SO much). GHC never breaks the Dnepr in the south on Turn 2. In my experience, SHC voluntarily gives up Kiev around Turn 4-6 when GHC breaks the Dnepr further southeast. So
Mattp, forget the common strategy. With 50 % transport rate won't work. The german can break the Kiev line, because it's the only side, where its possible to reach on T02.