The GHC can practice and perfect an opening and this one looks devastating. There are a lot of high CV units that have been routed out of there in the south so it seems that a lot must go right to achieve this or it's been well rehearsed to the point of maximizing odds. The LVOV pocket, while technically not sealed, is sealed for all purposes plus GHC has penetrated deeply and locked up many other units. Overall, he is putting SHC to difficult decisions because normally all units not assigned to any front rush north and in this case, it will be very tempting for SHC to not send those units north, but to try to stabilize the south. I think SHC should resist this temptation and play a normal northern defense and accept the fact that the South is screwed for awhile. Half measures will just result in major defeats in both north and south, so if I'm SHC I play my normal northern defense and accept a **** situation in the south where there is a lot more ground to give up.
In the north, it's T2 that will matter most, so won't really comment much other than taking Minsk Turn 1 is of course nice. Open or closed pocket is irrelevant, they're all dead anyway. Further, GHC should rush everything east and leave behind as little as possible to clean up the eventual pocket over several turns.
Where I'm most curious to see this game is after the first turns. How will SHC react and, more importantly, when GHC is not acting from a script any longer, will we see play this brutally efficient. Further, with the +1 and Normal Blizzard it seems GHC is banking on winning the game before these ever come into play (or being so far ahead that they can absorb it). So the SHC needs to survive long enough to be able to use these assets.
Thanks MKTOURS for doing the AAR, for me this is going to be reaaaaaaalllyyy interesting to watch.