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Will Manila fall?

 
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Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 3:52:16 AM   
pontiouspilot


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I have 1700 AV/experience around 50ish, behind 3.5 forts; he has only 1400 AV....mid-March '42. He has finally just blockaded me outa supply but as yet not much impact on the LCUs. He is bombing/bombarding. Any thoughts on whether he can root me out with this low force level? I have not faced situation where my boys were this well ensconced yet flat outa supplies.
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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 4:24:01 AM   
tigercub


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no supplies!...its only time but he could use some engineers has he attacked more than once?

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 4:53:40 AM   
pontiouspilot


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He Delib Att several weeks ago and got a bloody nose...only bombardment since. He seems to have a good force mix incl Engs. ....he just doesn't have many units...only 1 large full division. Watcha all think??

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 12:18:09 PM   
ny59giants


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If he has Bataan, he can sweep away the mines. Then, a steady diet of BBs and CAs bombarding your troops to destroy supply and increase your troop disruption level to remain above 70% would go a long way to your surrender, IMO.

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 12:23:44 PM   
Jim D Burns


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Actually Japan is better off not smashing the defenders at Manila with huge bombardments that kill/disable tons of troops. Instead do daily air bombardments with a small squadron or two to keep supply usage up and the huge stack of allies will eat through their supplies in no time. Then they'll be push-overs.

Down side is it takes time so your troops are tied up. The up side is you only need enough troops there to keep the allies from attacking you.

If you do huge naval bombardments you can actually reduce supply usage significantly as lots of rear area troops will die off and stop eating supplies. Naval bombardments do not destroy a lot of combat troops so the fighting effectiveness won't change by much till near the very end.

Jim

< Message edited by Jim D Burns -- 1/24/2015 1:27:30 PM >


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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 3:52:26 PM   
pontiouspilot


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He doesn't have Bataan....it sits at fort level 4 and just outa supplies....many fewer defenders however. So how long do you give the defenders of Manila given that he seems unprepared to commit larger force??

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/24/2015 4:59:11 PM   
Symon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot
He Delib Att several weeks ago and got a bloody nose...only bombardment since. He seems to have a good force mix incl Engs. ....he just doesn't have many units...only 1 large full division. Watcha all think??

Actual Battle of Bataan took 3 months. Homma didn't have much beyond the 48th Div.

Some people think all they have to do is build a big enough stack and they can squash anything in their path in a turn or two. The game flexibility allows this, but that's not how war works. Pre-adolescent gamer weenies can always beat this computer game by doing this crap, because they are nothing but computer weenies. They know nothing else.

So forget them. They are not worth a fart in a latrine. I think bomb and bombard is appropriate, that's what Homma did. Wait till the other guys are weak and unable to respond effectively, and then strike. And take the casualties. Hello, this is Infantry combat and people get whacked. Cinch up your dick and get it done, or not, your choice.

[ed] that's exactly what Homma did.

Ciao. JWE

< Message edited by Symon -- 1/24/2015 6:01:44 PM >


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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/25/2015 6:39:33 PM   
Alfred

 

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With those figures, of course Manila will fall, and fairly quickly at that too.

1.  An unadjusted AV of 1700 will fall to an adjusted AV of 425 when all supply has been exhausted.  And that is the best case scenario for you as without supply your units unadjusted AV will drop like a stone.

2.  You say that only 1 enemy division is present.  That means that approximately 950 AV of the enemy is provided by other units, and those units will contain some combat engineers.

3.  The enemy is applying the correct real world military tactics.  Bombarding to force consumption of supplies and maintain disruption.

4.  If the enemy is bombing your airfield/port, then no further forts will be built.


If Japan takes it conservatively, once you are out of supply, it will take:

Day 1, a deliberate attack reduces your forts to level 2 (at best for you)
Day 2, artillery bombardment to rest the Japanese infantry and keep up your disruption
Day 3, another artillery bombardment
Day 4, a deliberate attack reduces your forts to level 1 (at best for you)
Day 5, artillery bombardment
Day 6, artillery bombardment
Day 7, deliberate attack captures Manila

Alfred

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/25/2015 9:21:32 PM   
zuluhour


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 "Cinch up your dick and get it done, or not, your choice. "
That sounds painful. Bombard an extra day or two and allow the boys access to the dance floor. And a little Ballroom.

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 1/30/2015 10:36:02 PM   
pontiouspilot


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Well I cinched up the gear....a Deliberate attack finally came. My units were still at no pre-combat disruption from lack of supplies. 1-3 odds with no drop in fort level notwithstanding multiple Engs. 1300 AV vs. 1700= 3200 IJA casualties, 2300 for US.

Post-combat I seem to only have 2 units with disruption in the 20s. My take is that he was 1 full division short from bloodying my nose. As it is I think he will need a couple weeks to try again. Thoughts??

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 2/2/2015 7:47:54 PM   
jmalter

 

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My thoughts won't rilly help you, I'm hoping they'll help me!

I'm trying to use Sub Transport TFs to bring supply to the Phillipines - 4 TFs of 4 or 6 fleet boats, shuttling to Bataan from Surabaya, refueling at Balikpapan. The add'l supply might give a few more days to the defenders.

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RE: Will Manila fall? - 2/4/2015 3:52:47 PM   
pontiouspilot


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I have been running all my fleet subs (that's all they are good for in '42!) on re-supply and in last 2 turns snuck in 2 transports. The boys are all back into the white with some left over!! This should buy them another month unless opponent buckles and brings in more force.

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