From: Ottawa, Canada
Yes, but wouldn't the offensive be more paralized if we wait till '42?
But it depends on what the Axis was doing in 1941. If the Axis was spinning its wheels trying to break the pact, and manages to do so in the fall, and got nothing else done (i.e. no invasion of UK, or conquest of Spain/Gib), then the Axis is in a bad position.
If, on the other hand, the Axis has accomplished something worthwhile in 1941, in 1942 it can go in secure in the knowledge it has out-produced the USSR in the interim, weakened the CW, strengthened the Italians (who might have, say, a larger contribution à la Super Balbo, to make to the invasion), and still has a larger army and air force in play than the USSR. (Plus the Luftwaffe in 1942 is still far superior to the Red Army Air Force.)
In either the 1941 or 1942 start, the Axis does best, IMO, if it has as much good weather as possible to take factory cities and slaughter the Red Army.