Pondering on random events

[Lecivius]

Reading the "I'm done with this ridiculous time vampire of a game" thread got me to pondering on the random events that changed the course of this theater. Some events that were small at the time had much larger consequences in The Grand Scheme Of Things.

Examples

The Enterprise was not in Pearl Harbor that Sunday, when it was in fact scheduled to be there. If she is sunk, no Midway, and the war goes on a lot longer.

If the Japanese scout submarines had deployed on schedule, there would have been submarines at 'Point Luck'.

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

If Mikawa had come on, instead of turning after Savo. The destruction of troops & supplies would have doomed Shoestring.

If the Enterprise hanger had been stuck in ANY other position other than were it was after Santa Cruz would have left the Japanese in control of the waters around Guadalcanal.

If US Torpedo's had worked, would the war have been anywhere near as destructive as it was?

What others come to mind? It is this "What if...?" that intrigues me about this theater.

[kaleun]

As far as what if the US torpedoes had worked, that is easy to simulate[:D]

[Lecivius]

And while I ponder, I can't think of anything in the other hemisphere that would have been a fulcrum on the same level. Hitler switching the bombing campaign in the Battle of Britain, going into Russia, the constant changing of strategic targets in the bombing campaign, were all decisions, not random acts that may have changed the war.

Perhaps someone better read has information?

[Endy]

Well, the weather during critical time of Market Garden operation surely did not help. Though I guess you could argue that the operation was too optimistic and doomed from the begining due to other factors as well.

[ckammp]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

And while I ponder, I can't think of anything in the other hemisphere that would have been a fulcrum on the same level. Hitler switching the bombing campaign in the Battle of Britain, going into Russia, the constant changing of strategic targets in the bombing campaign, were all decisions, not random acts that may have changed the war.

Perhaps someone better read has information?

If Oberst Brandt doesn't move a briefcase to the other side of a table leg so he can get a better look at a map, Hitler dies on 20 Jul 44.

[Lecivius]

That again is a decision. Imagine if you will the disaster that would have been IF (going totally out into dreamland) the POW had been torpedoed by a U-boat during the Atlantic Charter meeting.

[witpqs]

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!

Agreed, but it is something to ponder on. perhaps I'm just too bored at work

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: witpqs

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!

Agreed, but it is something to ponder on. perhaps I'm just too bored at work

So what scenes would the movie Midway have included in place of Tone's late scout? [:D]

[LargeSlowTarget]

Bismarck being hit a few feet forward of the actual hit near the rudder, reaching France for repairs and then forming a SAG with the "terrible twins" and terrorizing the convoy routes to the UK.

[witpqs]

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway! [:D]

[Trugrit]

For me this is largest "what if" of the Pacific War:

What would Japan have had to do to win a negotiated peace?
Was that even possible?

This might interest you:
The below link is for a lecture given about southern war strategy (American civil war)
There are Interesting parallels between the southern and the Japanese war strategies.
They both used the same three strategies to try and win a negotiated peace.

Cordon or Perimeter defense
Offensive/defensive
Gorilla/Attrition

The lecture is the second one in by historian Richard McMurry:
When he says confederate I think about the Japanese.
http://series.c-span.org/History/Events ... 7436630-1/
As a southerner I can relate since my ancestors traveled the same dark path.

Also this link. What Jon Parshall says at the very end.

Refighting the Pacific War - An Alternative History of WW 2.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I20FWLsq2Qk

[Lecivius]

European thoughts.

What if Hitler & Stalin actually liked one another?

What if Jodl had released the reserves according to plan.

In any event, a LOT of things went incredibly 'right' for the allies during that war.

[Dili]

Also this in a less serious note http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Final_Countdown_(film)



I think overall the biggest what if to Second World War is if Churchill doesn't get to be to be PM. Only a fortunate set of circumstances made it be.

[LargeSlowTarget]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway! [:D]

[:-] I was of course replying to post #3.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway! [:D]

[:-] I was of course replying to post #3.

Party pooper! [:D]

[zuluhour]

the monkey selfie is still killing me!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

the monkey selfie is still killing me!

He's a good monkey!

[pontiouspilot]

Now that may be rude….what if not a monkey??….It also may help explain the Ebola jump from monkeys to men!!

What ifs……there are a whole series of books and articles published on this topic. The only one I have on my bookshelf is "What if" by a gentleman named Cowley…a series of articles by authors as well known as John Keegan.

[JeffroK]

WSC is shot, "trying to escape"

G Washington falls into the Delaware!