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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 2:26:59 PM   
BBfanboy


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I suspect a move on NZ to cut off aid from the US to Aus.

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 4:29:23 PM   
KenchiSulla


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Or perhaps it is more simple then that. Reduce your ability to search that part of the ocean. Norfolk's location is pretty strategic. Would be very interesting if he does try to come for Auckland.. What do you have on the island?

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 4:29:59 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I suspect a move on NZ to cut off aid from the US to Aus.


I read this on my phone two hours ago, thought "NZ", then waited to say anything until I was on the box. You beat me to it.

Aid cut-off is one thing, but if he's going for auto-vic NZ is a nice haul of VPs at a lot less risk and work than SE Oz. He'll activate the emergency reinforcement package, but it comes in far away and the VPs are right away. Or he could be looking to bomb more industry. He won't get VPs for that, but he might not care, or even know. I don't recall any game where NZ industry was attacked.

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 5:31:40 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Not impossible. But he is running out of time. Only 15 days left of the Amphib bonus. Then he will have to do it the old fashion way. I have no prepp for anything outside China lately.

I just donīt get it. He just stopped after he landed at Brisbane. Iīm just waiting for a massive landing somewhere right now. I had thought it would have come by now but nothing. I know he has 3 IDs in SOPAC. One is just sitting at Noumea. One is in OZ. Where is the 3rd? A good guess would be OZ. I also miss two IDs from Java. 2 went to Burma and one is still on Java. So 2 IDs are doing nothing right now or in transit somewhere...

NOPAC and Gilberts are still untouched. If I were him I would prefer to land in the Gilberts before the Amphib bonus expires. But with the KB in SOPAC that looks very unlikely... I feel like Iīm missing a giant piece of the puzzle. Surely he canīt be done with his expansion?

EDIT: Just got the next turn. Looks like another raid towards NZ. No troop ships...yet!

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 8/9/2014 6:33:00 PM >

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 5:50:18 PM   
JocMeister

 

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16th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Some TFs in SOPAC are in jeopardy.

------------------------
China
------------------------

Not much to report here. Tom suicides a small unit across the river to Sian to open the hexside. Worked well for him because my troops are so disrupted right now I took more losses then he!

quote:

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4477 troops, 231 guns, 438 vehicles, Assault Value = 1131

Defending force 82674 troops, 495 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1328

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 490 Horrible adjusted AV!

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
808 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1177 casualties reported
Squads: 46 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)


I manage to reinforce the rivercrossing. That will hopefully buy me time enough for the troops in the North to get out. Fingers crossed.

Not looking good in the south and center though...

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

The same turn I spotted the KB approaching Norfolk Isl. I stopped unloading and sent TFs at NZ away. Problem is that I had to refuel 3 of them losing a full day. Sensing this Tom made a full speed dash south. He might catch some prey this time around...luckily the CA TF with full fuel tanks can sprint away. Will probably lose the rest though. Mostly small ships but the bigger xAK TF is also likely a goner. I have two slow AVPs here too that I really donīt want to lose.

Bummer...

On the positive side this have allowed me to refuel my CVs, unload the last troops at Pago Pago and Savaii and fill up the fuel stocks at Pago Pago.

Two big troop convoys also passed by only 2 weeks ago as did a 120k supply convoy. So it could have been a lot worse...

------------------------
Philippines
------------------------

Things are deteriorating fast as almost 200 bombers are hitting Manila each day. Bataan has fallen and I expect the BBs to show up any day now.






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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:12:13 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Tonight's music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy6MpsDPKts

How can you not love this. Tarja and Sharon in the same song. Yummy!

Tonight's drinking:
http://www.masterofmalt.com/whiskies/ardbeg/ardbeg-auriverdes-whisky/

Got really, really lucky and got my hands on this one. Very, very hard to come by!

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:25:55 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Hmm, just got one of these. What does it do? Provide shore party?





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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:52:32 PM   
Lowpe

 

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Ever think of just hiding in the port with some of those ships?


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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:52:50 PM   
JocMeister

 

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17th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Turns are just flying. 7th one today I think!

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

Got lucky and the KB turned around. Did he get a whiff of my CVs? No DL and nothing spotted that I can see...hmm. Some crucial information this turn.

quote:

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7


This tells me he intends to stay in OZ or he wouldnīt waste supply on expanding the AF. Its quite possible the "missing" 2 IDs have been diverted here. That would give him 4 IDs plus at least 1 tank RGT. Enough to stop my planned offensive but far from enough to threaten OZ proper.

AV at Sydney is up to 1600 and Melbourne 1100. Add to that the 6th OZ ID that hasnīt railed in yet...

The newly arrived AA units make a "small" dent in the Japanese bomber formations as 24 are shot down over Newcastle. Strategic losses just passed 3000...

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:54:16 PM   
Lowpe

 

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how do you do 7 turns in one day? Do you pay attention to the replay at all?

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 6:58:40 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

17th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Turns are just flying. 7th one today I think!

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

Got lucky and the KB turned around. Did he get a whiff of my CVs? No DL and nothing spotted that I can see...hmm. Some crucial information this turn.

quote:

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7


This tells me he intends to stay in OZ or he wouldnīt waste supply on expanding the AF. Its quite possible the "missing" 2 IDs have been diverted here. That would give him 4 IDs plus at least 1 tank RGT. Enough to stop my planned offensive but far from enough to threaten OZ proper.

AV at Sydney is up to 1600 and Melbourne 1100. Add to that the 6th OZ ID that hasnīt railed in yet...

The newly arrived AA units make a "small" dent in the Japanese bomber formations as 24 are shot down over Newcastle. Strategic losses just passed 3000...


Looks like you're solid in OZ. H may come, and if he does you'll get the nice benefit of the reinforcements, and I think you'll be okay. I bet he'll stay back, use that big air field and bomb away.

You're pretty good at defending big bases fro what i remember, so I think you'll figure this one out. Be patient and chip away. He'l maybe get some VPs but he's had to use a lot of resources to get there and will use a lot more if he wants to stay and bomb the industry.

At least at this pace I'll be able to get tips from your AAR about the endgame way before we get there!

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 7:03:03 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Ever think of just hiding in the port with some of those ships?


That usually backfires for me and I lose all ships at port. So I tend to try and avoid that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

how do you do 7 turns in one day? Do you pay attention to the replay at all?


Naaaah...well sort of! Its 90% Japanese air bombings and ground bombardments and those I just ESC. I put message speed at 0.5 and that gives me just enough time to follow recon and NavS. I takes me about 2-4 minutes watching the replay and then 10-15 minutes doing the turn. Donīt ask me how Tom makes it though! He usually sends them back within the hour!

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/9/2014 7:08:58 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Looks like you're solid in OZ. H may come, and if he does you'll get the nice benefit of the reinforcements, and I think you'll be okay. I bet he'll stay back, use that big air field and bomb away.

You're pretty good at defending big bases fro what i remember, so I think you'll figure this one out. Be patient and chip away. He'l maybe get some VPs but he's had to use a lot of resources to get there and will use a lot more if he wants to stay and bomb the industry.

At least at this pace I'll be able to get tips from your AAR about the endgame way before we get there!


I sure hope Iīm solid. With the UH terrain and huge amounts of arty and supply backed up by level 5 forts I feel pretty safe. Especially as all heavy Japanese heavy arty is in China.

For now Iīll hunker down in Sydney Melbourne. But I have some things going on at his flanks with expendable troops that are due to withdraw. If he comes I will be as ready as I can be.



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Post #: 673
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 9:56:44 AM   
JocMeister

 

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20th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

China is deteriorating rapidly.

------------------------
China
------------------------

I donīt know how Tom did it but his troops have already crossed into the last wooden hex. Iīm scrambling to get troops and possible close the hex side. But against 3 IDs there is next to nothing I can do.

I went back 10-15 turns to see if the troops were visible but they never where. One minute they was just there despite a British Recon unit keeping a constant watch over any moment. Then he shifted hex again in just a couple of turns with a full ID.

A breakthrough into the Chunking basin seems inevitable at this point. But I wonīt give up the treeline just yet. Iīll do my best to contain the breakthrough.

Sian fell on the first attack. Taking 2000-3000 losses per day from bombardments and airstrikes had shot all supply and DIS was around 80 among many units. Losses were horrific.

quote:

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 47675 troops, 569 guns, 770 vehicles, Assault Value = 1436

Defending force 79221 troops, 464 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1126

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 1506

Allied adjusted defense: 321

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Sian !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)

Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1355 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 96 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Vehicles lost 43 (2 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Units pursuing 1


Allied ground losses:
24181 casualties reported
Squads: 775 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 925 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 216 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 119 (97 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Units retreated 21
Units destroyed 1


The Japanese air force is now pounding the evicted troops causing over 2000 casualties per turn despite the terrain.

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

Half of KB moves towards Fiji but then disappears again on the 18th. Donīt know if he turned back or passed through my NavS. I may now have a fox in the hen house.

Strat bombing has ceased after the heavy AA losses a couple of days back.

------------------------
SIGINT
------------------------

I found one of the missing ID (46th?) at Cebu. So 2 still missing. No clue where they are. Also nothing to give an inkling on the next Japanese move. But he has to do something? Right?







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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 11:56:35 AM   
JocMeister

 

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Here we go!
______________________________________________________________________________

This just in. So Tom is coming straight for the Samoas. This will be the battle that decides the war. I have prepared as well as possible but is it enough? It depends on how much he brings...now I can only wait and see.








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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 2:16:26 PM   
JocMeister

 

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23th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Just when I think I figured stuff out...

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

Instead of the KB moving East toward Fiji and the Samoas Tom again turns SW into the Tasman sea. I donīt get it. There is absolutely NOTHING here. Only thing I can think of is a small TF of 6 xAKs and a PC that left OZ for NZ gave away some radio chatter. They are just South of Tasmania and I turned them due West.

------------------------
China
------------------------

Usual bombardments. Looks like more units are moving towards the gap in my lines in the South. My units at the rivercrossing are taking an absolute pounding with over 200 casualties every day.

Another Jap ID just moved in. He will attack shortly Iīm sure.

quote:

Ground combat at 81,39 (near Tienshui)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 5934 troops, 421 guns, 522 vehicles, Assault Value = 1045

Defending force 33949 troops, 261 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 774

Allied ground losses:
237 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Assaulting units:
17th Division
110th Division
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment


Defending units:
75th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
Jingcha War Area
41st AA Regiment








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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 2:34:44 PM   
topeverest


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need more intel before you can determine if he is just opportunistically hunting or something else. I think you know it is a dangerous time to engage KB if it is whole. IMHO, flood patrol planes to the region and get good naval intel, so you can determine if you can counterpulse with CV's or just surface ships.

At this point, he has to know that you know those CV's are there. Is it an empire trick or isn't it. That is the question.

_____________________________

Andy M

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 2:42:40 PM   
Lowpe

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.


I don't think that is correct.

You should be in relatively good shape to fight him there if you want to. I think that is an island too far given your ship strength still left to you.

Let him keep burning oil and fuel.

Double check your search.

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 4:39:16 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest

need more intel before you can determine if he is just opportunistically hunting or something else. I think you know it is a dangerous time to engage KB if it is whole. IMHO, flood patrol planes to the region and get good naval intel, so you can determine if you can counterpulse with CV's or just surface ships.

At this point, he has to know that you know those CV's are there. Is it an empire trick or isn't it. That is the question.


My feeling is leaning towards a trick right now. For the second day in a row Iīm just getting CVEs listed and a very low plane count...could be a MKB moving to lure my CVs out.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.


I don't think that is correct.

You should be in relatively good shape to fight him there if you want to. I think that is an island too far given your ship strength still left to you.

Let him keep burning oil and fuel.

Double check your search.


In a sense I think Iīm right. IF (a big IF) Tom manages to kick me off the Samoans he will take out about 50% of the total allied unrestricted AV. He will also make it more or less impossible for me to recapture the high multiplier bases in the area (Samoans, Fiji, Noumea, Luganville) before 42 is up. That will most likely mean a Japanese AV. So in that sense I do believe this will decide the war.

As you say Iīm in a good shape to put up a fight here. I have been preparing here since day one. Most of the allied power is invested here and its pretty much as far from the HI you can get. So from that perspective its the best possible spot for me to fight in right now. With the end of the Amphib bonus fast approaching there is a good chance Tom has underestimated the Allied strength here. With only 6 days left he canīt just turn around and pick up a couple of more IDs if he needs them and dump them. But he will need to wait for prepp which will give me another 100 days to prepare and cause mischief.

Unless he is coming with all he has I feel pretty secure. He would need 4-6 IDs and KB on constant watch to kick me off the islands.

Finger crossed. Still no sign of the invasion. 40 subs are blanketing the area. All merchant shipping is evacuated and Iīm as ready as I can be.

< Message edited by JocMeister -- 8/10/2014 5:39:46 PM >

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 7:12:04 PM   
JocMeister

 

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26th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Starting to get really worried now...

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------

Okay, nothing has materialized. That TF going into the Tasman sea is definitively not KB. For 3 days in a row now I have gotten only CVEs and CS ships and very low plane numbers. No more SIGINT after the Savaii note 4-5 days back.

Iīm starting to wonder if Tom has fooled me completely. What if OZ/SOPAC is just a feint? Grab the Strat points, make me invest heavily and then go somewhere else?

Nothing makes sense right now. Amphib bonus is gone in 4 days. He hasnīt landed in the Gilbers, Makin, NOPAC, Darwin, Northern OZ or even Timor?! There are loads of smaller bases all over the DEI he has still left to land on. Burma is only now being secured. He just secured PM this turn for crying out loud?!

What am I missing? I think its highly unlikely he botched something that set him back two months. He is way too experienced for that. This have to be intentional but I just canīt figure out what he is planning to do. A move on India would be too late right now. Too many Indian troops have arrived together with the RAF. Too long to dig in. NOPAC/Canada? More strat points trying to bomb the WC? Too late now with US pilots properly trained. Or is he simply going to try a more defensive strategy? But if that is the case why not grab NOPAC and the Gilbers to buy time?

I donīt get it...Iīm missing something big...

------------------------
China
------------------------

Tom is pouring troops into the gap in the South. My river crossing block is being worn down faster and faster. A DA ended up with 1:1 although heavier Japanese losses. The troops on the road to Ankang repulsed another attack with good results but are now in danger of being surrounded.

Oh, a good day in the skies above Broken Hill as 3 AA units have a field day with attacking Nells/Bettys. (Donīt bomb from 3000ft in DBB)




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< Message edited by JocMeister -- 8/10/2014 8:14:43 PM >

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 7:58:58 PM   
Lowpe

 

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The Gilberts are nice to have -- they deny your 4e in the central pacific. Speaking of 4Es how is their training coming along? You have a window here before his better planes come along to make some hay with them I think.

The Aluetians are just horrible for Japan to fight over, imho.

Have you thought he is simply grabbing what victory points seem easy and will be settling in for a defensive war? In Greyjoy's game I think he established several festungs, but his rear area was weakly held.

Mr. Kane has really trashed your merchant fleet, but surprisingly few big ship losses. Combine that threat with pdu off, and he has to be worried a bit.

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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 10:04:49 PM   
obvert


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Nice results with the AAA there is OZ! Hopefully he's left the good pilots in them. Odd he came in so low. With the solid mistake free opening it's good to know he'll blunder once in a while, right?

_____________________________


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RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/10/2014 10:46:31 PM   
Lokasenna


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I agree with Lowpe. I don't think the Samoas are as strategically important as you seem to be thinking. Yes, it would suck if he had them. However, him having them does several things for you, assuming you avoid 1/1/1943 AV ratio. Which you should be able to do - he would need Australia and India, IMO...you should do some base VPs math - put it in a spreadsheet, I did! In any case, here's why you shouldn't worry too much about it:

1) Extends his SLOC, especially applicable once you have 40% working torps in 1943 - or 44% regular effectiveness, almost an every other attack instead of one in every five.
1a) If he really wants to isolate Australia with this, he needs to take the Gilberts or you can just thrust straight through there and really cut off whatever of his is S of your line of advance.

2) Provides low hanging fruit for your first amphibious invasions in late 1942 or early-mid 1943, which is also about the time you're able to cut his SLOC...meaning anything he has defending it is easily destroyed in place. Which means more VPs back on your side.

3) Even if you need to do something in 1942 about VPs for the AV ratio, Allied ships (by and large) have the endurance to take long, long circuitous routes to their destinations.

4) His moves make more sense as a very quick advance to push you back as far as possible, giving him more time to shore up the "inner" empire. I'm thinking AV is his "nice to get it done, but probably won't happen" plan - he would need to be pushing harder and faster( and better and stronger) in China, not to mention possible VP grabs against Ceylon and Calcutta. If he can take all of these high Allied multiplier bases, like Noumea, and simply sit on them to prevent you from getting the VPs...and grab as many permanent VPs from LCUs/industry as he can. I think you've done a good job of avoiding shipping losses, which is always a great way to gain permanent VPs for either side.


It all adds up to a plan to make you play more cautiously in 1943, lest a naval debacle on your end tilt the VPs over the 4:1 ratio. Or 3:1 in 1944.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 683
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 2:29:55 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Gilberts are nice to have -- they deny your 4e in the central pacific. Speaking of 4Es how is their training coming along? You have a window here before his better planes come along to make some hay with them I think.

The Aluetians are just horrible for Japan to fight over, imho.

Have you thought he is simply grabbing what victory points seem easy and will be settling in for a defensive war? In Greyjoy's game I think he established several festungs, but his rear area was weakly held.

Mr. Kane has really trashed your merchant fleet, but surprisingly few big ship losses. Combine that threat with pdu off, and he has to be worried a bit.



The first 16 B17s just landed in Sydney.


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Nice results with the AAA there is OZ! Hopefully he's left the good pilots in them. Odd he came in so low. With the solid mistake free opening it's good to know he'll blunder once in a while, right?


Indeed! He stopped bombing in the south now and turned his attention to the North.

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Post #: 684
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 2:41:46 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I agree with Lowpe. I don't think the Samoas are as strategically important as you seem to be thinking. Yes, it would suck if he had them. However, him having them does several things for you, assuming you avoid 1/1/1943 AV ratio. Which you should be able to do - he would need Australia and India, IMO...you should do some base VPs math - put it in a spreadsheet, I did! In any case, here's why you shouldn't worry too much about it:

1) Extends his SLOC, especially applicable once you have 40% working torps in 1943 - or 44% regular effectiveness, almost an every other attack instead of one in every five.
1a) If he really wants to isolate Australia with this, he needs to take the Gilberts or you can just thrust straight through there and really cut off whatever of his is S of your line of advance.

2) Provides low hanging fruit for your first amphibious invasions in late 1942 or early-mid 1943, which is also about the time you're able to cut his SLOC...meaning anything he has defending it is easily destroyed in place. Which means more VPs back on your side.

3) Even if you need to do something in 1942 about VPs for the AV ratio, Allied ships (by and large) have the endurance to take long, long circuitous routes to their destinations.

4) His moves make more sense as a very quick advance to push you back as far as possible, giving him more time to shore up the "inner" empire. I'm thinking AV is his "nice to get it done, but probably won't happen" plan - he would need to be pushing harder and faster( and better and stronger) in China, not to mention possible VP grabs against Ceylon and Calcutta. If he can take all of these high Allied multiplier bases, like Noumea, and simply sit on them to prevent you from getting the VPs...and grab as many permanent VPs from LCUs/industry as he can. I think you've done a good job of avoiding shipping losses, which is always a great way to gain permanent VPs for either side.


It all adds up to a plan to make you play more cautiously in 1943, lest a naval debacle on your end tilt the VPs over the 4:1 ratio. Or 3:1 in 1944.


Well, I think the Samoans ARE strategically important for the simple reason that I made them so. They are my "line in the sand" and I have invested very heavily in them. But if you take away that they are just a nice base to have. If Tom manage to remove me from them I think a Japanese AV would be very much a reality. Current score is 18184:6127. He needs only about say 7000 more VPs for AV. And very soon he will begin to get loads of VPs from China. Then add to that the theoretical loss of 80.000 allied troops on the Samoans and the VPs from Fiji and Pago Pago and we are starting to get close...

But Iīm starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.

Oh, he did land in the Gilberts last turn. A RGT and 2 BFs landed on Tabiteuea...

If he really have ended his expansion I have to start looking at what I want to do with the rest of 42 to even out the VPs...

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 685
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 2:46:38 PM   
offenseman


Posts: 652
Joined: 2/24/2007
From: Sheridan Wyoming, USA
Status: offline
I'd harass him at Tabituea as soon as possible. Maybe let him build the airbase a bit for you though. That could be a long term step toward controlling Christmas Island down the road. Lots of JFB like to do that. Even if that is not the case. Tabituea is a great island to have a Japan. It is good for area denial as it can be made large enough to use 4e bombers. He may invest heavily in keeping it as long as possible.

_____________________________

Sometimes things said in Nitwit sound very different in English.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 686
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 4:15:47 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 6573
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
I think it's dangerous to assume a premature stop to the Japanese expansion. Many people around here have proven that the IJN can continue to support offensive operations well into 1942, even into the summer and fall. They may not be advancing everywhere anymore, but it can still be done. You're still in February? Don't get too gung-ho about counter-attacking just yet...

For all that I said earlier, I was mainly responding to the hypothetical of a Japanese victory in the Samoas. I think it is a reasonable place for you to fight him as you should have several mid-sized airfields in the area (Pago Pago, Suva, Savaii itself?) and it's about equidistant to Hawaii and Rabaul/Truk, right? I don't think I would risk tangling with a full KB until you have Hornet and are carrying extra VMF planes to supplement your CAP, plus LBA - all the usual, but...you know.

(in reply to offenseman)
Post #: 687
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 4:36:16 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8142
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: offenseman

I'd harass him at Tabituea as soon as possible. Maybe let him build the airbase a bit for you though. That could be a long term step toward controlling Christmas Island down the road. Lots of JFB like to do that. Even if that is not the case. Tabituea is a great island to have a Japan. It is good for area denial as it can be made large enough to use 4e bombers. He may invest heavily in keeping it as long as possible.


Good advice. Iīm probably going to start something here shortly. I never captured the Gilberts in any PBEM but this time Iīm probably going to give it a go. I think I got a decent hang on atolls now.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I think it's dangerous to assume a premature stop to the Japanese expansion. Many people around here have proven that the IJN can continue to support offensive operations well into 1942, even into the summer and fall. They may not be advancing everywhere anymore, but it can still be done. You're still in February? Don't get too gung-ho about counter-attacking just yet...

For all that I said earlier, I was mainly responding to the hypothetical of a Japanese victory in the Samoas. I think it is a reasonable place for you to fight him as you should have several mid-sized airfields in the area (Pago Pago, Suva, Savaii itself?) and it's about equidistant to Hawaii and Rabaul/Truk, right? I don't think I would risk tangling with a full KB until you have Hornet and are carrying extra VMF planes to supplement your CAP, plus LBA - all the usual, but...you know.


Good point. I think what I really have to look out for is a ferocious counter attack. So I have to be very, very careful.

Donīt worry about gung-ho. I donīt have anything too fancy in mind for 42. Iīll try to do an proper update tonight outlining my thinking for the rest of 42. I just never get the time to properly update with this turn pace.

And donīt worry about me taking on the KB. Even with Hornet and Wasp I will avoid battle unless its inside allied LBA.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 688
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 5:43:48 PM   
Lowpe

 

Posts: 10677
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But Iīm starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.



I think he will fill in and finish off the basic conquering, but he certainly can still launch offensives, and major ones.

You may or may not get sigint warnings depending upon how crafty he wants to be.

Watch out for his paratroopers and fast transport amphib operations, it is a way for him to gain access to a base without prep and thus sigint warnings. Then the follow on divisions can be quite nasty.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 689
RE: Japanese land in OZ!! - 8/11/2014 5:55:44 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8142
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
30th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Only 1 day left of the Amphib bonus!

------------------------
China
------------------------

Lots of stuff happening here. Iīll try and put up a separate post tonight. Not looking good. Tom is very close to breaking through to the Chungking basin. All he has to do is route a lone Corps.

------------------------
Philippines
------------------------

On the 28th the first deliberate attack on Manila takes place. Canīt complain about the results but its clearly the beginning of the end here.

quote:

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36297 troops, 643 guns, 696 vehicles, Assault Value = 1289

Defending force 57440 troops, 569 guns, 237 vehicles, Assault Value = 1487

Japanese adjusted assault: 457

Allied adjusted defense: 2587

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3403 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 63 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 135 (23 destroyed, 112 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 84 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 37 (12 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)


Further south US troops are putting up a ferocious defense!

quote:

Ground combat at Malaybalay (80,90)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12745 troops, 116 guns, 36 vehicles, Assault Value = 302

Defending force 10815 troops, 53 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 167

Japanese adjusted assault: 203

Allied adjusted defense: 175

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled


Allied ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
46th Division
32nd Nav Gsn Unit


Defending units:
3rd PA Constabulary Regiment
103rd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Division
205th Base Sqdn
Del Monte AAF Base Force
101st PA Infantry Regiment
III Philippine Corps
505th Base Sqdn


The US units have stalled the 46th for almost a month. Unexpected but pleasant.


------------------------
Java
------------------------

Japanese forces are closing on Soerebaja. For now dutch forces have stopped the southern advance at Madioen where they have withstood 2 DAs from the 2nd ID. Iīve left only token forces at Soerabaja hoping to damage some of the oil there.

------------------------
Burma
------------------------

The Japanese advance have cleared the inland and are approaching the jungles in the North. Only small BTL sized units are left here.

For a while it looked like the 1st Burma ID and 16th Indian BDE might be outrunned and surrounded but the RAF sortied and saved the day. Together with the 1st Burma are some very valuable BFs I want in India. Unless he lands behind them from the sea they should reach safety.

------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------

Tom finally lands in the Gilberts with 3 days left of the Amphib bonus. Looks like a lone NavGuard unit.

------------------------
KB
------------------------

Has been out of sight now for 12(?) days now. Most likely it did cover the landing in the Gilberts. Getting loads of radio traffic at both Noumea (28 ships reported all DDs) and Truk (133 ships mixed pot CL biggest).

------------------------
NOPAC
------------------------

Nothing to report. Iīm going to pull the SCTFs here to the WC for refits.




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