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Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:18:06 PM   
Numdydar

 

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Working through Barbarosa and imagine my surprise when I get snowfall on impluse 5 of the May/June turn . Did anyone do any kind of actually looking at the weather records for the board game? Moscow, which the game places in the Artic zone for some unknown reason has never had any snowfall in May/June. Yet in my game the white stuff is falling down

At Murmask I can understand this since in May there is a 27% chance of snowfall, while a much less chance of snow cover http://weatherspark.com/averages/33822/Murmansk-Murmanskaya-oblast-Russian-Federation

But to include large parts of Russia down to Kursk as the same weather as Murmansk is absurd. Is there any way to mod the weather tables? Is there any way to add another weather zone to make this a LOT more accurate?

The last thing I want to do is spend all this time setting up a Global War game, get to '41 and have snow falling where it is plainly impossible for it to ever happen. In the board game you could just re-roll or ignore the effect. The only way I can see to fix this, would be to save the game before every weather die roll which seems a little extreme to avoid something that should not even happen.

Of course why there is even a chance of snow in May/June is beyond my understanding. Storms/rain no problem. Snow no way.

< Message edited by Numdydar -- 11/14/2013 4:18:52 PM >
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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:24:11 PM   
Neilster


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I guess it's a hangover from paper WiF. The weather zones had to be fairly simple or it would have been a nightmare to keep track of everything.

It works both ways too. You can get unrealistically good weather in winter.

Cheers, Neilster

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:34:17 PM   
Numdydar

 

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Totally get that, but why is there even a CHANCE on the table for weather like this when it is impossible to happen?

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:42:29 PM   
Neilster


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I suppose to get truly arctic weather at Moscow in Winter it has to be in a weather zone where it can snow in Summer. That's all I can think of. As per my answer above, actually realistic weather would require an impractical number of weather zones.

Anyway, snow is better for an attacking power than rain in some respects

Cheers, Neilster

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:50:19 PM   
wodin


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I'd have thought things like this could have been tweaked for the PC version.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster

I guess it's a hangover from paper WiF. The weather zones had to be fairly simple or it would have been a nightmare to keep track of everything.

It works both ways too. You can get unrealistically good weather in winter.

Cheers, Neilster




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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 3:54:40 PM   
Neilster


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Then you open a Pandora's box of deviation from World in Flames. Steve has been careful to make very limited changes from WiF. He has a contract to fulfil and it was to convert WiF, not create a derivative of it.

There will be plenty of abstractions, unrealistic things and simplifications along the way but overall the system works.

Cheers, Neilster


< Message edited by Neilster -- 11/14/2013 4:55:08 PM >

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Post #: 6
RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 4:46:16 PM   
brian brian

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

I'd have thought things like this could have been tweaked for the PC version.



I think things like that will happen, some day. A computer version of the game could potentially bring in improvements to any rule system via using the power of computer technology. But to get to that point, we have to start with what we have, i.e. buying an adaptation of WiF 7 first.

I would caution against using modern weather probabilities for the 1940s. The world was colder then. But this isn't the place to argue about that.

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Post #: 7
RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 5:13:29 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Working through Barbarosa and imagine my surprise when I get snowfall on impluse 5 of the May/June turn . Did anyone do any kind of actually looking at the weather records for the board game? Moscow, which the game places in the Artic zone for some unknown reason has never had any snowfall in May/June. Yet in my game the white stuff is falling down

At Murmask I can understand this since in May there is a 27% chance of snowfall, while a much less chance of snow cover http://weatherspark.com/averages/33822/Murmansk-Murmanskaya-oblast-Russian-Federation

But to include large parts of Russia down to Kursk as the same weather as Murmansk is absurd. Is there any way to mod the weather tables? Is there any way to add another weather zone to make this a LOT more accurate?

The last thing I want to do is spend all this time setting up a Global War game, get to '41 and have snow falling where it is plainly impossible for it to ever happen. In the board game you could just re-roll or ignore the effect. The only way I can see to fix this, would be to save the game before every weather die roll which seems a little extreme to avoid something that should not even happen.

Of course why there is even a chance of snow in May/June is beyond my understanding. Storms/rain no problem. Snow no way.

There is a 1 in 10 chance of snow in M/J in the Arctic zone.
I think that no one here can say how were the odds of that occuring in 1941-1945, and I think that the designers of WiF did look at the weather records for the board game, to i mplement those odds.

Also, these 10% odds are not as simple as that, because the weather during the previous impulse can make it a 0% chances.



< Message edited by Froonp -- 11/14/2013 6:13:43 PM >

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 6:16:23 PM   
Numdydar

 

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Well according to the chart in the game, there is ALWAYS a 10% chance for snow in the Artic zone in May/June which runs all the way down to Kursk.

Moscow has NEVER gotten ANY snowfall in May/June since records started being kept which was way before 1941. So it does not matter what the weather patterns were during 190-1945 since these areas have never gotten it.

< Message edited by Numdydar -- 11/14/2013 7:16:41 PM >

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Post #: 9
RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 6:53:31 PM   
WIF_Killzone

 

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Would of liked to have seen your face when you first recognized it was snow, would have also liked to hear the first words that came out of your mouth, probably went something like "Are you ^&%$ing kidding me!"



quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Working through Barbarosa and imagine my surprise when I get snowfall on impluse 5 of the May/June turn . Did anyone do any kind of actually looking at the weather records for the board game? Moscow, which the game places in the Artic zone for some unknown reason has never had any snowfall in May/June. Yet in my game the white stuff is falling down

At Murmask I can understand this since in May there is a 27% chance of snowfall, while a much less chance of snow cover http://weatherspark.com/averages/33822/Murmansk-Murmanskaya-oblast-Russian-Federation

But to include large parts of Russia down to Kursk as the same weather as Murmansk is absurd. Is there any way to mod the weather tables? Is there any way to add another weather zone to make this a LOT more accurate?

The last thing I want to do is spend all this time setting up a Global War game, get to '41 and have snow falling where it is plainly impossible for it to ever happen. In the board game you could just re-roll or ignore the effect. The only way I can see to fix this, would be to save the game before every weather die roll which seems a little extreme to avoid something that should not even happen.

Of course why there is even a chance of snow in May/June is beyond my understanding. Storms/rain no problem. Snow no way.


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Post #: 10
RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 6:55:35 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Well according to the chart in the game, there is ALWAYS a 10% chance for snow in the Artic zone in May/June which runs all the way down to Kursk.

Moscow has NEVER gotten ANY snowfall in May/June since records started being kept which was way before 1941. So it does not matter what the weather patterns were during 190-1945 since these areas have never gotten it.

There are modifiers to the weather roll that make the "1" result, which brings snow, impossible.

As for your assertion, why not share your sources, and even better forward them to the designer at ADG ?

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 6:57:35 PM   
WIF_Killzone

 

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Hey it snowed on September 25th in Moscow, it could therefor snow in early May by my reckoning.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:29:32 PM   
Numdydar

 

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How about this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Moscow

or this

Summer (Hot Season)

The summer which typically lasts from May and concludes in October sees surprisingly warm and appealing weather, particularly through the months of June, July and August. From April the cold weather begins to improve as the remaining snow starts to thaw and everything turns to slush. By May the everyday weather has made an exceptionally large incline by means of daytime temperatures are precipitation levels. Daytime temperatures generally rise from an average of 2�C to 15�C from April to the end of May. High temperatures from June to August range anywhere 20�C to 25�C, occasionally rising into the high twenties. It is also common for the city features extreme heat waves anywhere from May to the end of September. The heat waves generally last for one or two weeks as the average temperature sores up beyond 30�C, the air throughout this time tends to be humid and clammy causing an unpleasant atmosphere to its surroundings. The daytime temperature remains pleasing right through September; although by mid-October frosts begin to occur during the night and nearly all precipitation comes in the form of snow.


< Message edited by Numdydar -- 11/14/2013 8:29:40 PM >

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:34:47 PM   
Numdydar

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Well according to the chart in the game, there is ALWAYS a 10% chance for snow in the Artic zone in May/June which runs all the way down to Kursk.

Moscow has NEVER gotten ANY snowfall in May/June since records started being kept which was way before 1941. So it does not matter what the weather patterns were during 190-1945 since these areas have never gotten it.

There are modifiers to the weather roll that make the "1" result, which brings snow, impossible.

As for your assertion, why not share your sources, and even better forward them to the designer at ADG ?



If that is true then this is a bug in the program since the table clearly shows a 10% change of snow in the Artic zone for ALL of the May/June period






Attachment (1)

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:37:58 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar


quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Well according to the chart in the game, there is ALWAYS a 10% chance for snow in the Artic zone in May/June which runs all the way down to Kursk.

Moscow has NEVER gotten ANY snowfall in May/June since records started being kept which was way before 1941. So it does not matter what the weather patterns were during 190-1945 since these areas have never gotten it.

There are modifiers to the weather roll that make the "1" result, which brings snow, impossible.

As for your assertion, why not share your sources, and even better forward them to the designer at ADG ?



If that is true then this is a bug in the program since the table clearly shows a 10% change of snow in the Artic zone for ALL of the May/June period






What if you read what the stars (*) mean ?

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:40:42 PM   
brian brian

 

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The modifiers are used for the _next_ impulse's weather roll. So snow can appear in the Arctic zone in M/J, but not if the previous impulse's weather roll was a 1-3. So it can never happen twice sequentially.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:45:40 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar


quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Well according to the chart in the game, there is ALWAYS a 10% chance for snow in the Artic zone in May/June which runs all the way down to Kursk.

Moscow has NEVER gotten ANY snowfall in May/June since records started being kept which was way before 1941. So it does not matter what the weather patterns were during 190-1945 since these areas have never gotten it.

There are modifiers to the weather roll that make the "1" result, which brings snow, impossible.

As for your assertion, why not share your sources, and even better forward them to the designer at ADG ?



If that is true then this is a bug in the program since the table clearly shows a 10% change of snow in the Artic zone for ALL of the May/June period






The asterisks indicate what should be added to the next die roll for weather. So if the last weather roll in March/April was a 1, then the two asterisks mean that rolling a 1 in the beginning of May/June will become a 3. That is what Patrice was saying: depending on what the previous weather roll was, it might not be possible to get Snow in the Arctic in May/June.

The weather table is tricky and not all that easy to get use to. That is one reason why we created the Weather Report form, to show the probabilities for the next weather roll. That takes into account the current weather roll.

As for snow in Moscow, or any where else, the weather zone lines had to be drawn somewhere. What hexes to include/exclude is never easy. The same is true for national boundaries (e.g., Luxembourg isn't shown on the map).

The weather for Moscow is also going to be the weather for Archangel and Murmansk, and a whole lot of hexes (duh). So when the weather probabilities were created, the designers needed to consider ALL the hexes in the Arctic zone. I don't envy their task.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 7:49:19 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

How about this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Moscow

or this

Summer (Hot Season)

The summer which typically lasts from May and concludes in October sees surprisingly warm and appealing weather, particularly through the months of June, July and August. From April the cold weather begins to improve as the remaining snow starts to thaw and everything turns to slush. By May the everyday weather has made an exceptionally large incline by means of daytime temperatures are precipitation levels. Daytime temperatures generally rise from an average of 2�C to 15�C from April to the end of May. High temperatures from June to August range anywhere 20�C to 25�C, occasionally rising into the high twenties. It is also common for the city features extreme heat waves anywhere from May to the end of September. The heat waves generally last for one or two weeks as the average temperature sores up beyond 30�C, the air throughout this time tends to be humid and clammy causing an unpleasant atmosphere to its surroundings. The daytime temperature remains pleasing right through September; although by mid-October frosts begin to occur during the night and nearly all precipitation comes in the form of snow.


This wikipedia article seems mostly based on recent measurements.
Moreover the May figures in the charts clearly show negative records at -7C, where snow could exist. The type of precipitation tables below don't say what timeframe they are calculated from, so you can't say there can never be something like snow in Moscow area in May in the 40s.
The article even mentions "The last wet snow precipitation may be in the beginning of May".

Don't forget that WiF is about possibilities, not about being framed in what really happenned. WiF is a strategical scaled game, with a number of weather zones defined. You can argue that Moscow should not be in the same Arctic weather area than Murmansk, and you could be right. In old versions of WiF, they weren't. The designers made it that way in the Final Editions for reasons that belong to them, maybe because the northern arctic weather zone was not that useful and it simplified the game to drop it.


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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 8:41:09 PM   
Numdydar

 

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I have no issue with the weather zones and where they are as I understand they did have to be drawn somewhere. The issue is that there is ANY chance for snow in May, regardless of previous die rolls. For impluses 1-4 weather was Fine, no idea of what the die rolls were. So it goes from fine spring weather to Snow .

Again in the board game, this can easily be dealt with. But in a computer game like this there is no way to change it after the fact other than saving the game before the weather die rool and then reloading.

I did find out that Steve is more awesome than I imagined . Every phase there is an autosave . So I just reloaded the autosave at the end of the Russian impluse and now the weather is springtime once again

Just just to let everyone know, if this happens to you, just reload the autosave at the end of the last impluse and the weather will be redermined.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 9:29:52 PM   
paulderynck


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Of course you could be real unlucky and have to reload three times once in a thousand times.

Or use the interface to turn on the ability to control die rolls. Just think - you'll never lose a combat again!

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 10:12:00 PM   
Easo79


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The question can be better reformulated in a different way.

There is a finite number of weather regions: in which one does Moscow fit the best?

I see in the picture above the different weather regions. Let's see..."Mediterranean"...mmm not likely, "Monsoon"?

"North Temperate"? Maybe this is a good candidate, I do not know, but perhaps it has many rain instead of snow impulses in winter...

My impression is that if the programmer had included some additional weather zones outside those included in the original game he had been court martialled and summarily shot by the devoted fans of the game.

By the way, the wiki quote you use mentions that each 10 years, there is one snow day on average during May in Moscow, so that is not totally never. Some other inner Russians city are mentioned in the Wikipedia as having occasional snowy days in May (Gorki, Novgorod, Minsk, Smolensk), and as it has been mentioned, a line must be drawn somewhere. If one assigns a zero chance for snow for the arctic weather during May/June, Murmansk would be misrepresented (and many other places as well)

EDIT: to admit that I have seen snowy streets and roads only a couple of times in my life. It is a very bizarre phenomenon at Palma.


< Message edited by Easo79 -- 11/14/2013 11:23:24 PM >


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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 10:13:54 PM   
henri51


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This could be due to an error in checking Moscow weather records, which show that the average number of snowy days in May is 0.1. However this does not imply a 10% chance but a 0.1/30=1/300 chance of a snowy day since there are 30 days.

In sum, one the one hand it is not true that the probability of snow in Moscow is zero, but OTOH it is only 1/300, that is about once every ten years.Of course the probability of two snowy days in a row is practically zero.Another way to see it is that if there is on the average 0.1 snowy days in May each year, then in ten years there is an average of one day over ten years.

However this does not take into account the snow on the ground, which is more important for movement than snowfall, and as one who lives in Quebec, there is often still snow on the ground at the beginning of May, and sometimes even into June and in forested areas, there is ALWAYS snow on the ground in the middle of June.I would guess that it is the same for Moscow.

< Message edited by henri51 -- 11/14/2013 11:14:58 PM >

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RE: Weather issues - 11/14/2013 11:40:06 PM   
Ingtar

 

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May in Colorado averages 1.5 inches, more in recent years. The way the game chart is set up, 10% is the minimum chance for a single snow turn they can set up.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 4:11:13 AM   
Greyshaft


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

How about this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Moscow

or this

Summer (Hot Season)

The summer which typically lasts from May and concludes in October sees surprisingly warm and appealing weather, particularly through the months of June, July and August. From April the cold weather begins to improve as the remaining snow starts to thaw and everything turns to slush. By May the everyday weather has made an exceptionally large incline by means of daytime temperatures are precipitation levels. Daytime temperatures generally rise from an average of 2�C to 15�C from April to the end of May. High temperatures from June to August range anywhere 20�C to 25�C, occasionally rising into the high twenties. It is also common for the city features extreme heat waves anywhere from May to the end of September. The heat waves generally last for one or two weeks as the average temperature sores up beyond 30�C, the air throughout this time tends to be humid and clammy causing an unpleasant atmosphere to its surroundings. The daytime temperature remains pleasing right through September; although by mid-October frosts begin to occur during the night and nearly all precipitation comes in the form of snow.


Quoting Wikipedia as an authoritative source for weather records is scholastically ambitious. I admire the effort that has gone into Wikipedia but I only ever use it as a starting point for research. Does that Wikipedia article cite any references? It might be better to quote those original sources.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 4:57:19 AM   
paulderynck


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Two of the worst winters since records were kept occurred in Europe during WWII. The weather zones cover a lot of territory and with only six turns per year they give reasonable results given the history of the German winter experience in Russia. Yes sometimes you can get winter effects in May-June. The only turn it can't happen is July-August.

Now it you control the die rolls, you can set the best possible weather every impulse of the game and absolutely massacre the Russians. Gee, what a fun, challenging game...

< Message edited by paulderynck -- 11/15/2013 6:01:50 AM >


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RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 5:05:09 AM   
Numdydar

 

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With the auto save feature this is a non-issue for me at the time. Still not how I think it should work but no longer a show stopper.

Also cold winters have nothing to do with May/June weather patterns which is what we are discussing here. I also found other sources besides Wikipedia to prove my point but since I found a work around I no longer need to care

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Post #: 26
RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 5:10:04 AM   
paulderynck


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WiF players have put up with the weather chart that's in the game for 25 years. Once you play both sides you'll see it provides play balance and part of the fun and challenge of the game is when odd things happen and you have to try to overcome them.

Your fixes will not work for a NetPlay game, nor should they.

Or to put it another way... Dem's da rules, they ain't changing, so get over it.

Edit; To add to this hilarity, Snow is the next best thing to Fine for movement. Will you be doing the quit/restart when you get Rain for the weather?

< Message edited by paulderynck -- 11/15/2013 6:14:39 AM >


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Post #: 27
RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 5:45:54 AM   
76mm


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I just noticed this thread. I've lived in Moscow for more than ten years, and it clearly does not have an arctic climate. I have never seen it snow here in May, maybe a couple of light snows in April. As to the weather being "worse" during WWII than now, that may be right, dunno, but last winter Moscow had more snowfall than in more than 100 years: http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Moscow_experiences_the_snowiest_winter_in_100_years

Southern Russia, near Kursk, is even less "arctic".

Understood if the game only has a limited number of weather zones, but let's not pretend that there is any significant chance of snow in Moscow in May. Same with snow on the ground--very little if any by May.

< Message edited by 76mm -- 11/15/2013 6:49:33 AM >

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RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 6:15:10 PM   
paulderynck


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Somewhere in the threads here is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation I did for the weather in 1 million games of WiF. If you do get a Snow result in one impulse it is impossible to get it in the next due to the add 1 on the Weather Chart. Likewise if March-April ends with weather that has an add 1, then it is impossible for the first impulse of May-June to have a result of Snow. The simulation gave the overall likelihood of getting Snow for any one impulse in May-June as 8.4%.

Let's not forget the Arctic weather zone extends from just north of Kiev to the Arctic Circle. It is an abstraction. But since movement and supply are both better in Snow than in Rain, Storm or Blizzard - what is being abstracted? There is no "Frost" in WiF but in a lot of ways Snow works more like Frost in games that have that mechanism.

Give the game as designed a chance, fellas, there's much more to it than you might surmise.

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RE: Weather issues - 11/15/2013 6:36:35 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline
I would also like to say that I don't think you have to see the weather for an impulse if it is bad necessary being 'Storm, Snow, Rain or Blizzard' as stated on the weather charts. They are used to "simulate" a general weather condition appearing during two impulses. To me, the mentioning of Snow in the Med or in M/J in the southern part of the USSR's artic zone f.e. seems strange too. However, my interpretation of this happening is that it is probably a light rain, not the same as the rains or storms, but still having some impact on game play.

Things are abstract in a strategic game and so are certain weather types in MWIF in some turns, IMHO.

_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 30
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