now, if you want to scooch STAVKA out of the room for a minute, here is what the Germans should do.
The Russians are strong, but deceptively so. They've been spending a lot on fun units - NAVs, MARines, PARAs, and they aren't even setting up for a smashing offensive to use them. Their line is strong, but brittle - no depth.
Meanwhile, the German pin-**** attacks inside the Russian Home Country are spinning their wheels. For every Russian unit the Germans kill, the Russians are gaining it back from the production bonuses of both German units being in their country, and for German attacks in their country. i.e., Plus the Build Points of one half of all their factories for every turn this is true.
It is the Germans who should retreat back to the Polish border, to lull the Soviet Worker back to sleep, and build up their own armored strength behind the lines. When Zhukov comes forward to investigate and finally launches his attack into Poland, the Germans should let it come. Hopefully onto some strong infantry units with good fighter protection, so the Russians will have to use up the Red Air Force to break the German infantry. Once they do, Manstein can unleash his master stroke, which, in the real war, came in the early spring of 1943 at Kharkov, as it has been described, as the 1 SS ARM appeared on the scene. Once the Russian spearheads are coming, possibly disorganized, and with their flanking infantry reduced and possibly disorganized, Manstein calls for his reserves hidden in the Offensive Chits the Germans still have.
First he smashes the Soviet Tank Armies with double attack factors. The Russian line is looking to have a little daylight in it. Immediately, Guderian, or von Rundstedt appear on the scene and throw another Offensive Chit. They tear open the Russian line and race for the Black Sea Coast, and pocket the Russians starting to nibble on Bessarabia. The Stukas swoop down and mop up the survivors...