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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse

 
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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 3:24:48 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

Right we have a plethora of attacks this turn:

No HQ support except for Yamamoto. The Chinese bring both their bombers to the party. The Japanese have nothing to counter with.

The only aircraft to fly on the Russian Front is a Soviet bomber in defence of Koniev - the Germans lack of oil has cost them dear in the south....




_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 3:30:38 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

So to combat resolution:

China first. The Chinese choose assault and the Japanese throw an 11. Its carnage. Both Chinese are destroyed at a cost of two Japanese units + 2 disorganised. Fortunately the Japanese have two divisions to take those losses.





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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:11:52 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

To the Soviet Union now and firstly its the attack on Koniev. The Soviets choose the Assault table for this important attack.

Its a 7 and the Axis lose two units and are disorganised.... oh well - at least it wasn't a 6




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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 813
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:18:01 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

So on to Mogilev and environs...

Again the Soviets get the choice as both sides have one armour. Needless to say they choose the Assault table. The roll is a 13, resulting in a loss each. The Germans take a motorised division and the Soviets lose a Paratroop Corps. All Germans are disorganised..







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 5:19:28 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:21:40 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

Attention turns to Pskov; this time the Germans have the choice and go for Blitzkrieg. More disappointment - what a lousy turn....

Its a 14, the Soviet unit retreats and half the attackers are disorganised..




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_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 815
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:26:18 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 3

And so to the final attack - against Riga. The Assault table is chosen but that does not save the Soviet units, both of whom are destroyed for the loss of one unit and a further three disorganised. That really was a pathetic turn...




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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 816
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:36:02 PM   
markb50k

 

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I guess you are forced to, however I would very rarely attack with anything less than a +6/7 is die roll modifier. I guess i play too conservatively but attacks at +2 or +3?? You're just asking for bad turns, don't you think?

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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:44:09 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: markb50k

I guess you are forced to, however I would very rarely attack with anything less than a +6/7 is die roll modifier. I guess i play too conservatively but attacks at +2 or +3?? You're just asking for bad turns, don't you think?
warspite1

I haven't really studied the CRT so don't know what the modifiers are. Under 5th Edition a +1 was good!! In terms of actual dice rolls that turn - the 7 apart - was actually better than the Germans have been recording previously.

Oh well, all part of the learning process I guess

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 5:44:58 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:57:49 PM   
Klydon


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This is why I want no part of that D20 table TBH. Yes, you can have bad dice with the D10, but it is far easier to use and understand to me anyway.

One note on Japanese air in China. I know you have been using them mostly for ground strikes, but given factors are halved and then halved again for the trees, I don't know that it is an effective use. One of the things I have been looking at there is with the lower numbers in general I wonder if just straight support isn't a more sure option. Either get an extra odds or disrupted; just about the same really unless you have someone out of supply, etc.

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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 4:59:55 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

This is why I want no part of that D20 table TBH. Yes, you can have bad dice with the D10, but it is far easier to use and understand to me anyway.

One note on Japanese air in China. I know you have been using them mostly for ground strikes, but given factors are halved and then halved again for the trees, I don't know that it is an effective use. One of the things I have been looking at there is with the lower numbers in general I wonder if just straight support isn't a more sure option. Either get an extra odds or disrupted; just about the same really unless you have someone out of supply, etc.
warspite1

My thinking was based on the importance of the +1 for flipped units in the old 5th Edition days. Doesn't seem to be as important now...


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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 5:07:33 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 5

Rightus o'reilly - what do the Soviets do now?

Before that however, the Americans continue the slow but steady (3 ships per impulse) build up of the Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor .




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< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 6:22:13 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 5:17:00 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 5

The Soviets resolve to take the time honoured approach and trade space for time. They choose to retreat one hex, thus straightening the line Pskov-Kiev.




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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 5:54:40 PM   
brian brian

 

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The attacker's advantage for attacking flipped / disorganized units is the same on the WiF5 1d6 tables, and the WiF:FE 1d10 and 2d10 tables because of how the tables are structured. Each disorganized defending corps is worth +1 to the attacker on old 1d6 or the 1d10, and +2 on the 2d10. If you look at the columns of results, you will see that the columns generally increase in positive results by that same amount.

A key thing to realize about the 2d10 is that each +2 you generate through die modifiers is an odds shift in your favor basically.

So that has not changed.

But for anyone converting from WiF5 to Final Edition, you absolutely have to think about simple math. A +1 to a die roll on 1d6 is +16.6% to your chances of success. A +1 on 1d10 is only +10%. These numbers add up over time and you can't just ignore the change to a 1d10 based system and say bad luck created the game results.

This is particularly true of ground strikes with 20% chance of success. That is one time in 5. Needing a 2 on 1d6 is one time in 3. Constantly attempting things with low probabilities of success will obviously not succeed very often.

It is definitely better for the Japanese to add a 2 factor plane and two 1 factor planes to an attack as ground support, against a Chinese unit worth 4 defense. That is an automatic increase of an odds level. Sending in those 3 planes to ground strike the hex first is maybe a 30% chance of success. If the Japanese really want to disorganize an important Chinese stack, they need to take an air impulse and make multiple attempts at doing so.


The attacker also has to consider the penalty for attacking in bad weather. An attack in snow or storm is -4 on the 2d10, or basically minus two complete odds level to whatever your attack generates. Constantly ordering your troops to attack at 3:1 in bad weather is the same as attacking at 1:1, and the result will be your troops are bled white, in most any wargame ever made.

Another basic of the 2d10 is that the single most likely result on the die roll is an 11. If an attack is a failure if you roll an 11, you have to really think about how badly you need that attack to succeed for the risk you are taking, because you are starting out with a less than 50% chance of success.

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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 5:59:26 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

The attacker's advantage for attacking flipped / disorganized units is the same on the WiF5 1d6 tables, and the WiF:FE 1d10 and 2d10 tables because of how the tables are structured. Each disorganized defending corps is worth +1 to the attacker on old 1d6 or the 1d10, and +2 on the 2d10. If you look at the columns of results, you will see that the columns generally increase in positive results by that same amount.

A key thing to realize about the 2d10 is that each +2 you generate through die modifiers is an odds shift in your favor basically.

So that has not changed.

But for anyone converting from WiF5 to Final Edition, you absolutely have to think about simple math. A +1 to a die roll on 1d6 is +16.6% to your chances of success. A +1 on 1d10 is only +10%. These numbers add up over time and you can't just ignore the change to a 1d10 based system and say bad luck created the game results.

This is particularly true of ground strikes with 20% chance of success. That is one time in 5. Needing a 2 on 1d6 is one time in 3. Constantly attempting things with low probabilities of success will obviously not succeed very often.

It is definitely better for the Japanese to add a 2 factor plane and two 1 factor planes to an attack as ground support, against a Chinese unit worth 4 defense. That is an automatic increase of an odds level. Sending in those 3 planes to ground strike the hex first is maybe a 30% chance of success. If the Japanese really want to disorganize an important Chinese stack, they need to take an air impulse and make multiple attempts at doing so.


The attacker also has to consider the penalty for attacking in bad weather. An attack in snow or storm is -4 on the 2d10, or basically minus two complete odds level to whatever your attack generates. Constantly ordering your troops to attack at 3:1 in bad weather is the same as attacking at 1:1, and the result will be your troops are bled white, in most any wargame ever made.

Another basic of the 2d10 is that the single most likely result on the die roll is an 11. If an attack is a failure if you roll an 11, you have to really think about how badly you need that attack to succeed for the risk you are taking, because you are starting out with a less than 50% chance of success.
warspite1

That's useful info brian brian - thank-you.


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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 6:04:02 PM   
brian brian

 

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Also for the US Entry system in Final Edition - it is not a passive system where after time passes, the US is magically able to enter the war. The Allied player has to make decisions (picking US Entry options), to maximize their chance to declare war. It is not an automatic event.

Unless chit draws have been incredibly abysmal, the US should have been able to pass War Appropriations and have greater than a 50% chance to Declare War easily, by the end of 1942.

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Post #: 825
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 6:09:46 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Also for the US Entry system in Final Edition - it is not a passive system where after time passes, the US is magically able to enter the war. The Allied player has to make decisions (picking US Entry options), to maximize their chance to declare war. It is not an automatic event.

Unless chit draws have been incredibly abysmal, the US should have been able to pass War Appropriations and have greater than a 50% chance to Declare War easily, by the end of 1942.
warspite1

Its a shame there is not (unless I have missed it) a way of seeing at-a-glance exactly what entries have been chosen. I am damned if I can remember....


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 826
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 6:27:54 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 7

The Germans seek to open up the road to Smolensk and send in two bombers to ground strike the forest hex west of Mogilev. The Soviets can get two fighters to the hex and decide to fly. The Germans mis-calculate and can only match this, and in fact are slightly worse off 5.5 vs 5.3... This will be interesting.

Round 1
Soviets roll a 10 (DC). Germany decides to clear through their He-111
Germans roll a 16 (AA). This aborts the Soviet front fighter.

The advantage swings to the Germans - 5.3 vs 5.0 - who decide to stick around

Round 2
Oh dear its another 10 for the Soviets which means the second bomber is cleared through.
It gets worse - the Luftwaffe throw a 4 and destroys the remaining Pe-3 (the pilot is saved).

Damn forgot to take a screen print

The ground strikes succeed in taking out one unit.







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 8:15:14 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 6:52:09 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 7

There will be just one attack this turn - in the forest west of Mogilev.

Vatutin adds defensive HQ support and Manstein reciprocates for the Germans. The Germans have one bomber they can bring in - thanks to the Condors incredible range. This allows both a FW-190 and a He-100 to fly in support. The Soviets have loads of bombers but only one 5-quality fighter.. they decide not to risk it.

So to the battle...

The German 1st Panzer Army vs the Soviet 2nd Armoured Army (and an infantry division) on the Blitz table. The net die modifier is +5... the tension mounts... the dice are rolled and ......

...Oh....how disappointing is that????? A 14 (modified to 19) - it had to be good!! but no. Its just a shattered result... The Germans lose an armoured division too ...rubbish...




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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 828
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:19:31 PM   
markb50k

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Also for the US Entry system in Final Edition - it is not a passive system where after time passes, the US is magically able to enter the war. The Allied player has to make decisions (picking US Entry options), to maximize their chance to declare war. It is not an automatic event.

Unless chit draws have been incredibly abysmal, the US should have been able to pass War Appropriations and have greater than a 50% chance to Declare War easily, by the end of 1942.
warspite1

Its a shame there is not (unless I have missed it) a way of seeing at-a-glance exactly what entries have been chosen. I am damned if I can remember....



There is, under "Info" on Main Form, "US Entry Options"

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Post #: 829
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:25:40 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: markb50k


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Also for the US Entry system in Final Edition - it is not a passive system where after time passes, the US is magically able to enter the war. The Allied player has to make decisions (picking US Entry options), to maximize their chance to declare war. It is not an automatic event.

Unless chit draws have been incredibly abysmal, the US should have been able to pass War Appropriations and have greater than a 50% chance to Declare War easily, by the end of 1942.
warspite1

Its a shame there is not (unless I have missed it) a way of seeing at-a-glance exactly what entries have been chosen. I am damned if I can remember....



There is, under "Info" on Main Form, "US Entry Options"
warspite1

What - do you mean that cunningly disguised column that Steve clearly made difficult to read to confuse us poor gamers?

Or the very clearly marked up column entitled Chosen, and below which a Yes or No is recorded against each one?

For %%^&* sake I was looking for that for ages earlier today - and then again when brian brian posted.... I think I need a holiday or a lobotomy or something...

Thanks anyway markb50k


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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Post #: 830
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:27:08 PM   
brian brian

 

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3:1 in the snow = 1:1 in the sun. Advantage, defender. You are lucky the Russians didn't have their special units with the white uniforms. You basically rolled a 3, with a +1 for flipped, or a 4 on a 1:1 attack in WiF5. Not likely to lead to a front-shattering breakthrough, though you did clear the hex, which can be very useful early in a turn.

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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:28:29 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

3:1 in the snow = 1:1 in the sun. Advantage, defender. You are lucky the Russians didn't have their special units with the white uniforms. You basically rolled a 3, with a +1 for flipped, or a 4 on a 1:1 attack in WiF5. Not likely to lead to a front-shattering breakthrough, though you did clear the hex, which can be very useful early in a turn.
warspite1

Not lucky in that respect - had the men in white coats been in the hex I wouldn't have attacked it!!


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:49:49 PM   
warspite1


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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 9

The situation the Soviets - and the Germans - now find themselves in, is one of the reasons why this game is such an immense challenge, so much fun, so brilliant. Sure, the dice can be important, but the difference between good and bad players can be huge. Take the last turn. I shattered the Soviet defenders - and stupidly (perhaps) moved into the vacated hex with just one Panzer Corps.

I did not want to give up the gap I just created and there was a good chance the turn would end of course. But you have to allow for the worst case. Having moved into the hex with one unit (I could not move either of the remaining units in the hexes that attacked for (hopefully) obvious reasons, I could still have made the position safe. How? By ensuring the aircraft I rebased, covered the hex. Did I do that? NO....

So now I have my best unit, vulnerable to destruction through stupidity...

But, do the Soviets attack? What would you do? If they attack and fail, the front is wide open...

Interested to hear what players would do.

BTW - the weather is Snow, its Impulse 9, the units close by are:

South of the German 6-4, 8-6 ARM
Hex further south 5-3, 3-3
Hex north of the German 3-2 AT, 6-3, 2-4 CAV
Hex further north 1-3 ENG, 9-5 ARM

No German fighters can reach the hex - just the Stuka you can see
Just the Soviet aircraft you can see can reach + one 5-quality MIG-1.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 8:58:43 PM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 7:56:58 PM   
WarHunter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

3:1 in the snow = 1:1 in the sun. Advantage, defender. You are lucky the Russians didn't have their special units with the white uniforms. You basically rolled a 3, with a +1 for flipped, or a 4 on a 1:1 attack in WiF5. Not likely to lead to a front-shattering breakthrough, though you did clear the hex, which can be very useful early in a turn.


Would it not be 3:2 instead of a 1:1? Not that it makes alot of difference. Just wondering.

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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:06:06 PM   
Klydon


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Some questions for you Warspite/Bob. You mentioned "This allows both a FW-190 and a He-100 to fly in support. The Soviets have loads of bombers but only one 5-quality fighter.. they decide not to risk it." and I see both the 190 and the HE-100 both disorganized as if they have been used. When you flew the Condor in for ground support, did you just show up with those two as well for escorts?

If you did, it wasn't necessary as both are in intercept range of the hex in question. You could have flown in the bomber alone. Had the Russians shown up with fighters, you can counter intercept with either or both of the FW-190/HE-100. The odds are they still would not have intercepted given the presence of the two fighters, but it would not have "burned" your fighters. Only when a hex you want to bomb isn't in range of intercept do you really want to send in fighter escorts (unless you have some planes in the back and want to move them up some anyway and keep your front line fighters available).

As far as the 9-5 armor in the trees; given the losses the Germans have already suffered, I would have a go at it if I can get some good odds and have some cannon fodder units to scrape off in the event of a failure. Nov/Dec turns are usually short, so even if you fail, its not like the Germans are going anywhere in a hurry. In addition, you likely won't be able to rebase all those planes to avoid getting them run over, so using them and then flying them back from the front a bit isn't a terrible option. The Germans have no air cover there that I see and you could also consider a ground strike on the stack that includes the XX infantry corps. Strike that stack and disrupt most of them and the Germans are not going much further anyway.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 835
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:11:03 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Some questions for you Warspite/Bob. You mentioned "This allows both a FW-190 and a He-100 to fly in support. The Soviets have loads of bombers but only one 5-quality fighter.. they decide not to risk it." and I see both the 190 and the HE-100 both disorganized as if they have been used. When you flew the Condor in for ground support, did you just show up with those two as well for escorts?

If you did, it wasn't necessary as both are in intercept range of the hex in question. You could have flown in the bomber alone. Had the Russians shown up with fighters, you can counter intercept with either or both of the FW-190/HE-100. The odds are they still would not have intercepted given the presence of the two fighters, but it would not have "burned" your fighters. Only when a hex you want to bomb isn't in range of intercept do you really want to send in fighter escorts (unless you have some planes in the back and want to move them up some anyway and keep your front line fighters available).

warspite1

Where are you getting that info from? Could it be the post attack re-base? Pre the attack, those two fighters were definitely NOT in interception range. They needed the Condor to be able to fly to the hex.


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/9/2013 9:12:09 PM >


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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:12:58 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

As far as the 9-5 armor in the trees; given the losses the Germans have already suffered, I would have a go at it if I can get some good odds and have some cannon fodder units to scrape off in the event of a failure. Nov/Dec turns are usually short, so even if you fail, its not like the Germans are going anywhere in a hurry. In addition, you likely won't be able to rebase all those planes to avoid getting them run over, so using them and then flying them back from the front a bit isn't a terrible option. The Germans have no air cover there that I see and you could also consider a ground strike on the stack that includes the XX infantry corps. Strike that stack and disrupt most of them and the Germans are not going much further anyway.
warspite1

Thanks for the response. My gut instinct is to attack too - just curious how more seasoned players would approach this.


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RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:19:04 PM   
WarHunter


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Agree with Kyldon, Look for elite winterized soviet units for a +1 per unit. If there are enough nearby, they could give you the edge.

HQ Vatutin, approves the order.

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“We never felt like we were losing until we were actually dead.”
Marcus Luttrell

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 838
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:22:46 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: WarHunter

Agree with Kyldon, Look for elite winterized soviet units for a +1 per unit. If there are enough nearby, they could give you the edge.

HQ Vatutin, approves the order.
warspite1

Winterised being any Soviet white print?


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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




(in reply to WarHunter)
Post #: 839
RE: Bob Flemin's MWIF AARse - 12/9/2013 8:34:39 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 20014
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
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Turn: Nov/Dec 1942
Impulse: 9

Right then, lets see what happens. The Soviets try a ground strike with two bombers. In stark contrast to German experience, the Soviet aircraft succeed... things are looking decidedly dodgy for the 3rd Panzer Corps already.





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England expects that every man will do his duty - Horatio Nelson 1805.




(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 840
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