From: Iowan in MD/DC
Out of curiosity, I went through all the Hokkaido/Japan industry in Tracker (everything that gives strategic bombing VPs).
There are 36,383 total industrial centers. That's a potential 72,766 VPs from conventional bombing, and a lot more than that from atomic bombs (the only thing I've ever seen destroy instead of damage industry). But I think I can figure on, eventually, 50K points from strategic bombing.
My points @ 82K, minus 10K for bases flipping = 72K denominator, 144K required for AV.
His points @ 56K, plus 50K points from eventual bombing = 116K numerator
144K - 116K = 28K current points differential, minus whatever he gains in base VPs (there's 11.7K sitting there if he takes all of the PI, SRA, and Marianas). So in actual combat, I have about a 10K "cushion" right now.
Of course it can all pan out differently - maybe I lose my fleet, maybe I start losing planes in droves in the air for minimal gain, maybe he retakes Chengtu/Chungking before 1946 (that would be enough to eliminate the cushion altogether). Just a hypothetical check on my situation.
Maybe I can sink some more CVEs.