Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Decline & Fall AAR v2

Post by composer99 »

So here's a second pass at playing the "Decline & Fall" scenario.

The previous thread is located here. I encourage anyone reading through this thread to start there to get a feel for some of the stuff I was planning to do.

Anyway, here is a screen capture of the start up screen right before I am about to click "OK" on the "Names OK" button in the "Name the Players" box, which for this scenario is the final box to appear before it launches.

The optional rules are as per posts 5-11 in the original thread, with one exception: I have decided to add the light cruisers to the mix.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

Post by composer99 »

Here is an overview of Allied air unit lending.

In a game where Italy is still in the game, the Axis powers are eligible to perform air unit lending as well (a one-way affair where Germany lends units to Italy).

Since Italy is conquered in this game, Germany does not have the opportunity to lend units to Italy.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The technical order of set-up for this scenario is:
1. China
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. France
5. Soviet Union
6. Commonwealth
7. United States

For the purposes of this AAR, for brevity's sake (and because the three "Western" Allied powers all cooperate, thus forming an almost-cohesive major power aggregate), I will present this set up as:
1. China
2. Japan
3. Germany
4. Soviet Union
5. Allies

(I am not a fan of a common "WiFfer" jargon of referring to US/CW/France group as the "WAllies", so I will henceforth simply call them the "Allies"; since the USSR and China do not cooperate with the other Allies, they get to be considered separately.)

(For those new to WiF: cooperation is a technical term in the game, referring to the ability of units from cooperating powers to stack together and target the same land hexes, draw supply from one another's primary and secondary sources, and other joint benefits.)
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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Step 1: China Setup

China begins the scenario considering whether or not to scrap units.

In the end, China:
- does scrap all eligible air units, because they are crappy, and doing so guarantees it gets nice US-lend air units instead.
- does not scrap any naval units, because why bother? It won't be building any, anyway.
- does not scrap any land units, because it will probably field them all (or close enough).



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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Here is a screen capture of my window layout for MWiF.

The travails of using a laptop screen. (le sigh)



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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The unit currently in the setup tray is the Chengtu warlord unit.

A number of cities in China get warlords who switch sides depending on who controls their hex. For the purposes of this rule, Nationalist China, Communist China, and Japan count as different "sides". (Theoretically, I suppose different powers do, too.)

They are usually a little boost to China and Japan early in the game; they will remain a boost to Japan in this scenario, but their usefulness to China is circumscribed.

One limitation of warlords is that they cannot wander too far from their home city (in the case of the unit shown, Chengtu). This is not a big deal for the Japanese, who will see the Chinese steadily approach their warlord's cities. It does limit the Chinese, though, as the front has advanced beyond the reach of the warlords they control (up until they take the cities held by Japan which have warlords, anyway).
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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Nationalist China

The Nationalists are set up to seep towards Nanking and Shanghai this summer. Late in the summer and into the fall, the army will redeploy south to Chiang's army group and advance on Canton, hopefully taking it while the region is experiencing fine weather over the winter.

This accomplished (or not), the Nationalists will turn around and march on Shanghai in the summer of 1945.

The Nationalists will screen the Hanoi region, leaving taking Indochina to others.

The Nationalist infantry in Burma is out of luck: too remote from the main action in Burma. So it will have to slowly walk back to China to join a main front. Worse yet it is the Nationalists' best infantry army.

This army will march north of Kunming to Kweiyang, then head for Kweilin where it can rail move as required. In all likelihood it will be able to participate in the march on Shanghai.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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A feature of MWif I am using in the above screen capture is the ability to toggle the resolution of the units shown.

When you are looking at large-scale maps, if the units are displayed in full resolution they can be very cluttered. This lower-resolution display results in a much cleaner look. Here is a close up of the Chinese Army deployed with Stillwell around Changsha.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Communist China

Because the Communists only have land units, they did not scrap anything.

The Communists are set up to achieve three objectives:
1. March on and seize Peking
2. Capture the resources in northern China
3. If possible cross into Manchuria

Because they do not suffer from attack weakness, and they threaten the resource base in China, the Communists expect to meet the stiffest Japanese resistance. They expect Nationalist air support in the form of ground strikes where this occurs.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Chinese Production Strategy

Here is China's force pool. I have excluded naval units as I do not expect to build these. I suppose I ought to have excluded the CVP units from the pool for the same reason.

Currently short 1 resource to fill all its factories, China can expect to produce 7 production points per turn. Its base production multiple is 1, meaning this production point total translates to 7 build points per turn.

However, as long as there are in-supply enemy (read: Japanese) units in China, China gets a bump to its production multiple (increasing it to 1¼), meaning it would produce 9 build points after rounding.

And of course, once China re-takes cities with factories and resources, or receives lending from the other Allies, it will have even more production.

So the question is, what to do with those build points?

As far as I can see, China's main focus will be:
- build its remaining 2-engine bomber (the A-20G - not random because it is the only one in its pool)
- build a second fighter (randomly drawn from the 3 available)
- build out its infantry armies and divisions
- build out its cavalry divisions

After that, China has a few options:
- build its 4-engine bombers
- build its remaining fighters
- build the Communist field artillery unit (the artillery unit with the blue shading and the grey-shaded combat factors)
- build the paratrooper corps and air transport for a paradrop threat

If I'm feeling particularly flush, the Chinese might build some of their other land units, outside of those required to replace losses, or they might even invest in an offensive chit, probably only in January/February 1945 (when it will arrive in time for the last turn of the game).

I do not anticipate building the Chinese blitz (armour and mechanized) forces: they are expensive, take a long time to arrive, and there is not much good tank country in China. But you never know.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Step 2: Japan Setup

Japan Scrapping
Japan aggressively scraps air units, scrapping:
- any eligible FTR unit with an air combat rating of 4 or less
- any eligible CVP unit with an air combat rating of 3 or less (for fighter-specialized CVP) or a naval bombing rating of 2 or less (for bomber-specialized CVP)
- all eligible single-engine LND, up to the starting unit cap for single-engine LND, and lower-quality twin-engine LND

I kept more lower-weight CVP than I might like in order to have a chance at drawing some that can be placed on my light carriers.

Japan did not scrap any land units; however it did scrap a few older submarines. Also, because Japan begins the game with almost no sealift (1 AMPH and 1 TRS on the map, and that's it), Japan heavily scrapped older sealift.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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I've completed Japan's set up; however it's late. You'll just have to wait until tomorrow or possibly Thursday to see the set up and some notes on strategy, production, etc. (insofar as these differ from last AAR).
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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Some prior notes on Japan's strategic considerations can be found on posts #50-54 on the old thread.

To condense these notes somewhat for this AAR:

Japan Overall Strategy Notes

Objective(s)
I must confess this subtitle is a pun, referring as it does both to the in-game phenomenon of objective hexes, and to Japan's goals for this game:
- Japan's primary goal is to run out the clock on the Allies, ideally with 6 or more objective hexes under its control.
- Japan aspires to defend each objective hex (except possibly Truk and Rabaul) with two strong corps and a division.
- Japan aspires to maintain a convoy line keeping oil flowing and resources shipping to Japan. If Japan can keep producing units, it stands a chance at pulling a draw or even a win out of this grim situation.

Advantages
Japan has a few advantages in this latter stage of the game:
- China is the only major power that can focus on Japan. The others have to fight Germany, too, and particularly this summer the US and CW will probably need to focus almost exclusively on Germany in order to get an army ashore in France to stay.
- The Allies have a dearth of sealift, and for reasons immediately discussed most of it has to start in the European theatre. As such, any losses will be crippling, until next summer when new transport units would arrive.
- Apart from China, the Allies begin with very few land units in theatre. Here again any losses would be crippling, and the Allies need time and production to bring more units in.
- For their part, the Chinese land units are generally of poor quality, especially the Nationalists who suffer from attack weakness.
- Japan has ways to slow down the Allied advance: naval pickets at sea and speedbumps on land. These will waste Allied time and cause the Allies to have to sail into lower boxes if they want to reach the Japanese core, giving Japan a tactical advantage at sea.
- Japan's carrier fleet, though eroded, is still a threat when combined with land-based air.

Disadvantages
- Japan itself is pulled in multiple directions. It has to perform naval or combined impulses to act against the US and CW, but it also has to perform land impulses to deal with the Soviet Union and China.
- For its part, Japan has almost no sealift (1 TRS and 1 AMPH). This makes naval reinforcements a very slow affair (possibly too slow); likely as not it means Japan cannot both reinforce its overseas objective hexes and maintain a viable counter-invasion force simultaneously.
- Japan is also woefully short of land and air units with which to defend its objective hexes and sea areas, to say nothing of Japan itself.
- Japanese production depends on overseas shipping, requiring Japan to maintain and protect fragile convoy lines.
- Japan begins with low oil reserves, meaning it has little resilience to withstand cut oil lines.
- If Japanese production is cut, perhaps even for a single turn, and especially if Japan's oil is out of play, it can spell disaster.

Giving Up Objectives
- As discussed in the other thread, Japan can give up up to 4 objective hexes and still win (as long as Germany meets or exceeds its own required objective hex total).
- To that end, Japan is prepared to leave Truk and Rabaul out to dry, making a minimal effort to reinforce them and keep them in supply, in the hopes that the Allies spend their time taking them.
- If all goes well, what with being distracted by Germany, the Allies will end 1944 having taken only those two hexes.
- Japan may then have the time and space to reinforce its other objective hexes and prepare to make a stiff fight of it when the Allies finally do come after them.
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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Before proceeding with showing (and discussing) Japan's set up, I should like to post the optional rules manifest I have chosen for this scenario.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The Manchuria Front

Japan has three objectives on this front:

1- Protect Port Arthur from attack by sea
2- Protect Port Arthur from Soviet attack
3- Protect the frontier resources from Communist Chinese encroachment, at least until Manchuria is conquered by the Soviets

Basically, Port Arthur needs to have two strong (elite, for preference) corps and a division. This will give it a strong defence, especially since it is at the base of a narrow (1-hex) peninsula.

But it doesn't really need that kind of force straight away. So right now Japanese forces are massed along the border to bolster the pact.

Presently, Japan expects the USSR will be able to break the pact - and attack - in January/February 1945. That said, Japan will review the USSR set up, and if time and impulse calls permit, it may advance to the border and declare war itself in order to take a shot at seizing Vladivostok. Possessing one more objective hex at this stage can't hurt, especially one that Japan might not need sealift to capture.

Whatever happens, once the USSR is on the attack, Japan will attempt to withdraw in good order to form a line in the mountains north of Port Arthur, there to stand and fight in order to delay the Soviet advance on the city itself.

If it comes to it, Japanese forces currently stationed against the Communist Chinese will withdraw in order to bolster the defence of Port Arthur: ultimately, defending a resource base is no good if Japan can't ship the resources, and worse than useless if doing so costs Japan an objective hex in the process.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The Soviet-Japanese Pact

As you can see, Japan has a base garrison value of 8 in the pact border area.

That is, its units within 3 hexes of the USSR add up to a garrison value of 8.

Japan's offensive garrison value is never modified by the age of the pact, so its offensive garrison value is 8, modified by any pact markers assigned to offence: since Japan has none of these, its net offensive garrison value remains 8.

Japan's defensive garrison value is halved due to the age of the pact. As such, its base defensive garrison value is 4. Modified by pact markers, this value is doubled to 8.

(Markers drawn for neutrality pacts can at best double the garrison value from units.)

If Japan wants to declare war on the USSR, it requires a 2:1 ratio of garrison value, or better. As such, as things stand if Japan wants to declare war on the USSR, the USSR can't have a defensive garrison higher than 4.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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Here are the Japanese and USSR markers with only Japan's updated garrison value.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The China Front

1. North China

Here you can see Japan's set up to stymie any Communist advance.

Because the Communists don't have air support, the Japanese will happily ground strike Communist formations in order to immobilize them. This will in fact be Japan's primary method for slowing down the Communist advance.

Due to land unit shortages, Japan can't cover the entire front effectively. So there is a gap where that cavalry corps can push into. Here again Japan's air force has to be on the ball. If it can disorganize the cavalry early in the turn, a rapid expedition by the Japanese can destroy it before it gets very far.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The China Front

2. Shanghai & Environs

Here the Japanese are set up to slow down the Chinese advance.

The Japanese aim is to keep the Nationalists away from Shanghai until the winter sets in. Between Nationalist attack weakness and the bad weather the Nationalists should be deterred from attacking Shanghai.

Unfortunately, due to unit shortages the Japanese will probably have to move the unit currently in Hangchow to Nanking, and move the garrison unit in Shanghai to Hangchow, and scrape up some more units to throw into Shanghai, from somewhere.

If Japan can afford them, this front is where blitz forces will be most useful in the summer of 1945: if the Japanese could get a stack of blitz units and a stack of other units, in addition to the defenders of Shanghai, in place, their forces could either keep the Nationalists from encircling the city, or deliver some sharp counter-attacks.

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RE: Decline & Fall AAR v2

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The China Front

3. South China & Indochina

Here you can see the Japanese defence of Canton, Hong Kong, and Hanoi.

Canton includes some forces set up to counter Allied raids into the China and South China Seas. Hong Kong plays host to naval air units meant to fly into the zero box to defend convoys.

Unit shortages bite again, however: there simply wasn't a unit to spare to keep the Chinese off of Hainan straight away. One will have to be brought from overseas. Fortunately, if bad weather strikes in the North Monsoon weather zone, this can occur before the Nationalists get on the island. Unfortunately, it means using up some precious sea lift.

However, from the Japanese perspective, covering the approaches to the South China Sea, as you will soon see, was thought to be more important.

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